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Old 01-22-2013   #50
tru80texan
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Default Re: A Little Breakdown on Rick Smith

Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
But what about the other article?

Here is another article, by CFN (a more credible source out there), that studied all draft picks between 2000 and 2010.

It was distributed in April 2012 (I think, the date is on there).

17.5% of fifth rounders became starter while 11.67% made it.

Here, 2 sixths are already better than 1 fifth.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1180349.html

Also, from the same article, an additional 16% (equal percentage for both rounds) went on and do something (ie., becoming a contributor).

This adds even more value to the sixth rounders.
Lol! I see you are a member of the fuzzy math organization. Here are the facts given in your material. Paragraph 9- talent level drops as each as each round passes. That is also displayed in the percentages of the players rated 1 thru 5. 5th rounders had a little over 50% get rated 1-5 while 6th rounders had right at or a little below 50% who were rated at 1-5. The odds are better that 5th rounders have the potential to contribute more then 6th rounders. Plain & simple. You can keep accumulating all the 6th rounders you want until the % finally is greater that you could possibly get 1 player that becomes a worthy starter, but all you are doing is playing the odds in hopes that the numbers fall in your favor. When its all said & done 5th rounders simply have slightly more potential. It's a crap shoot w/out a doubt but 1 that you will have better talent to pick from in the 5th then the 6th. Simple concept. Thin the pool out & so goes the potential...just as your link suggested.

Can we please move on now. This is not on the subject & its a bit worn out & tiresome. You haven't proven much of a case by any means thus I will continue to maintain my stance. Thanks for the endless effort, but its a no go.
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