Originally Posted by Mr teX
112 qbs taken in the draft since 2002, a total of 34 in the first, 46 total if you add the 2nd round in.
of that 112, 25 of those qbs were starters for the majority of the season for teams last year........
19 of those 25 were 1st rounders........that's around 80% of the 25 that were starters and ironically around 80% of the starters in the league period.
Of those 1st rounders, the lowest selection of all those was Rodgers at 24.
Now, lets look at the percentages of finding a very good starter outside of the 1st round.
Only 4 of the 25 were drafted outside of the 1st..Schaub being the lowest of all those i believe in the 3rd round....that's around what, 18%?
the other 3 who were drafted outside of the 1st?....all were selected these last 2 years...Dalton, Kap and Wilson. But if you take these last 2 remarkable years away that's 1 guy in the last 10 years of the 25 starters that has managed to stick around in this league & be a decent starter....that's a little over a 3% chance.
the numbers might be off a little depending on how you want to handle Arizona's qb debackle but not by much. So, it's not quite zilch, but damn close to it....If we're going to go for a qb, it needs to be in the 1st; even then its still an iffy proposition b/c i didn't even go into detail about how many of those 25 starters were at least as good or better than schaub...the numbers would suggest that its pretty high.
Everything changed in 2011. These numbers are not a true compare given the disruptive force of the rookie labor pool being skewed towards the spread and speed, and the CBA. The last two years are the baseline or the new normal.
Having an offensive scheme to leverage the new market is the major issue. We do not have an innovator at HC or in the Front office, and that is why we are at our ceiling during this time of major disruption. In McNair's terms, we are having scaling issues.