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Old 12-24-2012   #11
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Default Re: Dutch's 2013 Texans Offseason Projections and Info

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Corrosion asked me to make a thread about the Texans 2013 offseason, because the info is good for making mock drafts. So I thought I could put together a little something to help you all out when making mocks and have an easy reference for FAQs like compensatory picks, UFAs/RFAs, and some cap space guesses (yes that's what they all are).

I made an Excel spreadsheet for this and took some screenshots to make it easy to read and display. The forum software doesn't do well with Excel copy/paste data, so if changes need to be made, it might be later on in the thread. Anyways, feel free to poke holes in my arguments or offer feedback on whatever. I'm putting it in this forum specifically for Mock Draft help.

Texans 2013 Free Agents:

We have 21 total UFAs, 13 on defense, 6 on offense, and 2 special teams. As you can see, we have several starters that are not under contract next year. By my own estimations, I would list 7 of these 21 as key contributors to this season: Quin S, Barwin OLB, Dobbins ILB, McCain CB, Cody DT, Caldwell OG, Casey TE (5 defense, 2 offense). When constructing mock drafts, I think it's important to see where we are losing depth, and its clear that the defense will be losing quite a bit if these players aren't retained. Before anyone says it, I don't consider either kicker to be a key contributor because they are easily replaced.

I included their salary and cap hits for this year to show how much they cost this year, but at the moment I don't have an exact estimate of capspace for next year. At this point, I think we will have 8-10 million free after the new Brown and Schaub contracts, but I feel that is slightly optomistic. JJo also restructured this year and pushed 1.3 million into each of the next three years. I think 8 million is a solid cap space projection, assuming nothing else changes. Remember though, about 3-5 million of that will need to be retained for signing draft picks, depending on how many high picks we have. (trade ups cost more than just the draft picks and players used, you guarantee a lot more money to high picks)

Cap Casualties:

So given that we will likely be up against the cap once again, I have identified the most likely candidates to be cut or restructured. Here are the costs and savings for each.

The Guaranteed Pay for each of them is signing bonuses plus restructured money. Antonio's number is a bit higher than other sites may show because he restructured in 2011 to help us sign JJo and Manning. Wade doesn't have much left on his deal, but cutting him actually saves more money than Antonio. As far as I know, none of Walter's money is guaranteed, if anyone knows otherwise please post it.

Clearly something has to be done about Walter and Antonio. Antonio is not worth 9.8 million nor the 8.5 million that he was originally scheduled to make. Walter isn't worth 4.5 million and should take another paycut or head to Baltimore. The bottom line is that we could save 13.5 million by simply cutting these guys. That could make our cap space go up to about 20 million, which would enable us to sign retain our own free agents and possibly sign a new impact player or two.

Compensatory Picks:

In addition to the 7 picks that the Texans have in the 2013 draft, they will have 4 more compensatory picks coming their way. The Texans lost 4 qualifying free agents and signed zero. Yes, zero qualifying free agents signed.

Here is a listing of our guys, my projection for them, and some comparable comp picks that I was able to identify.

Mario is most definitely going to give us a 3rd in return. He has 10 sacks on the year and a huge contract. I couldn't find any TEs that were a good match for Dreessen, but given his salary and game time, I think a 5th is in order. Briesel is a guard who started all 13 games so far, but guards don't seem to garner high picks. I'm sure he's worth a 5th based on salary alone, but I doubt he results in a 4th. Jason Allen has barely played for the Bengals, so I doubt we get more than a 7th for him, but it's better than nothing.

Edit: Compensatory Pick Requirements:

Practice Squad 2012:

Another way to backfill depth is to call up practice squad players. Several of these guys have been with the team for a while and may be ready to step up to the 53 man roster. Currently we have these guys:

I think Pleasant may take Demps spot on the roster next year. I would love to see one of the TEs develop into a solid blocker and save us a late round draft pick. If Mondek could develop more, maybe he could become our swing tackle and we could let Newton stay at RT. Lots of options to consider.
Superb post. Excellent data presentation.

Even *I* can understand our salary cap picture with this info.
How can I pin this sucker so I can refer back to it when needed???
Loyalty to any one sports team is pretty hard to justify. ...the players are always changing, the team can move to another city, you're actually rooting for the clothes when you get right down to it.
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