Originally Posted by theNumber80
Joe Flacco's pick wasn't a fade...It was a quick out route that Flacco just telegraphed all the way. Last year the fade with Stafford and Megatron was MONEY this year it's different because they don't even throw it because of the double coverage they have on Megatron once they reach the 5. The fade between Dalton and AJ Green is money as well as Romo/Dez, Ryan/Julio, Eli/Nicks(when healthy). When you have a 6'3 230 lb receiver who has a 40 inch vertical YOU HAVE TO THROW THE FADE AT LEAST ONCE. It's just stupid not to give it a try. As long as Schaub throws it right(which means high and to the sideline) it's INCREDIBLY hard to pick it off. Did you guys see Andre's catch when Schaub threw the back shoulder fade? Guess what? We could do that in the redzone as well. You're right when teams get into the redzone the coverage is much tighter which supports the argument of a fade to Andre as long as the coverage is 1 on 1.
Lol, Stafford is
throwing them, they just aren't converting them as much b/c teams know what they like to do once they get into the red zone...like i said in another post addressed to Rey "tendencies". The coverage that Calvin has been seeing has nothing to do with it b/c teams have been
sending all kinds of crazy coverage to Megatron....even last year..... it just didn't matter. They just had 1 of those years where they converted an abnormally high # of those type of plays & this year water found it's level.
Getting back on topic though, That fade throw is also incredibly hard for the qb to throw just right for it to be converted. It's also incredibly hard for the WR to catch it & get both feet down in bounds/maintain possession all the way down as well. & with there being no force out rule in effect anymore...it's even harder...Like i said it's a 50-50 ball at best if everything is done perfect & you've got an elite guy out there. If 1 of those variable is even a little out of whack, then it's exactly what matrix31 says..a waste of a down.
& regardless of whether it's was a fade or an out route that Flacco threw the premise about what i'm saying about a db's mentality in the red zone holds true. They're more apt to gamble and drive on short routes b/c they have no fear of getting beat deep & they know the WR's will be running them. They already have the 5 yard chuck rule to further shrink the room available & mess up the timing of the route & if a qb still
chooses to force it in there the chances of a pick go up even higher.
So yes the fade is a relatively safe play to run with potentially a big reward..More often than not however you're going to be in a 3rd & long with limited playcalling. & while you may not think this is true, 3rd and 8 plus is alot tougher to convert than 3rd and 5 or less. This assumes that you run the ball for 2.5 yds on all other downs. The playbook options are that much more wide open.