Originally Posted by eriadoc
Tell you what, here's what I know, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Every single time they've run the draw play this year on 3rd and long inside their own 35, they've failed except once. I can go back and pull up game logs if I were so inclined, but I'm not. They're run it in just about every game at least once, multiple times in a couple others. They have succeeded with it ONCE. That's the stat I'm talking about. You want to take it to a more general place, but that's not where I'm going with it. I don't have a problem with Kubiak's 3rd down calls across the board. I have a problem with his play calling in very specific situations. Generally speaking, he does a great job. I've said that repeatedly in many of my posts. He's a great X's and O's guy. He just has no feel for adjustments and he goes to the "quit to fight another day" card way too fast. You can interpret the stuff you're looking up any way you want. I know what my eyes have told me, and if you want another data point, just go read the gameday threads. In the moment, when the play is being called, read what's being posted. Plenty of people are seeing the same thing I am.
Here are the numbers for this year.
With the run:
There have been very few true situations there.
When we have a lead in the fourth, running is not a bad choice.
When the half is about to end, running is not a bad choice.
When your team is back inside its own ten, running is not a bad choice.
When the outcome of the game is already clear, it doesn't matter what you do.
With the pass:
Clearly we used the pass a whole more, especially when you consider where we are on the field, what the scores are, etc.