Originally Posted by eriadoc
You're either not reading my posts or not getting it. I don't have heartburn with 3rd and long running, or passing. Do whichever they want. Just mix it up. Don't do the same 3rd and long draw to the right that they almost always do. Mix in a screen, bubble screen, toss play, draw to the LEFT (Woohoo!), outlet pass over the middle to the back, slant-go route, double move ... there are plays that you can run that are sufficiently conservative that have a chance to succeed and that mix up your look on film for scouting purposes. Doing the same thing every time is effectively quitting not only on that play, but in future games when teams play your tendencies.
Also, 3rd and 15 has its own set of stats, but the Texans do it on 3rd and 9 inside their own 35. So while I appreciate your point, it's not 100% applicable.
When using the 9 yard parameter, the Texans had 295 attempts to convert with the pass at a 22.7% clip.
They tried it with the run only 88 times, at a 11.4% conversion rate.
Clearly, between 9 and 14 yards, the Texans went with the pass a whole lot more (247 times as opposed to 60 times with the run).
They had better results with the pass and that was why they went more with the pass to convert 9-14 situations.
Any way you look at it, Kubiak gets the best results out of different situations.