Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.
With a Texans WIN over New England AND a Tennessee win over the Colts. I think you missed that Texans win part.
TEN beats the Colts and the Colts have 5 losses. Houston beats NE, Hou can't lose 5 games. Division title. Baltimore and Denver play each other in 2 weeks. One of those teams loses and therefore would not be able to best Houston because Houston would have beaten them both.