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Old 11-23-2012   #28
brakos82
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Default Re: 2012 Playoff Picture

Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Played Thanksgiving game

AFC Playoff Picture - after thanksgiving games

Division Leaders:

Texans (10-1)... HFA 74%... Top-2 88%... Division 96%... Playoffs >99%.*# - Can clinch playoff berth with SEA, JAX, CLE wins... or SEA, JAX, BAL, OAK wins.
Ravens (8-2)... HFA 12%... Top-2 51%... Division 89%... Playoffs 99%.
Patriots (8-3)#... HFA 11%... Top-2 29%... Division 97%... Playoffs 99%.
Broncos (7-3)... HFA 3%... Top-2 30%... Division 99%... Playoffs >99%.


Wild-Cards:

Steelers (6-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 11%... Playoffs 71%.
Colts (6-4) (3.5 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 59%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (5-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 19%.
Chargers (4-6) (3 behind DEN)... Division <1%... Playoffs 14%.
Bills (4-6) (3.5 behind NE)... Division <1%... Playoffs 13%.
Titans (4-6) (5.5 behind HOU)... Division <1%... Playoffs 13%.

All-but-eliminated:

Jets (4-7)# Playoffs: 7%.
Dolphins (4-6) Playoffs: 6%.
Raiders (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.**
Browns (2-8) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race
Chiefs (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and either TEN or IND wins, or a couple of other options. (does it really matter?)
Jaguars (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and IND wins, and one of PIT, CIN, SD wins.

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NFC Playoff Picture - after thanksgiving games

Division Leaders:

Falcons (9-1)... HFA 74%... Top-2 89%... Division 95%... Playoffs 99%.
49ers (7-2-1)... HFA 10%... Top-2 44%... Division 82%... Playoffs 94%.
Packers (7-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 39%... Division 65%... Playoffs 85%.
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 49%... Playoffs 56%.

Wild-Cards:

Bears (7-3) (even with GB)... HFA 6%... Top-2 22%... Division 36%... Playoffs 77%.
Seahawks (6-4) (1.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 7%... Division 17%... Playoffs 54%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Redskins (5-6)# (1.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Divsion 25%... Playoffs 29%.
Cowboys (5-6)# (1.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 24%... Playoffs 28%.
Buccs (6-4) (3 behind ATL)... HFA <1%... Top 2 1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 28%.
Vikings (6-4) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 25%.*
Saints (5-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 16%.

All-but-eliminated:

Cardinals (4-6) Playoffs: 4%.
Eagles (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.
Rams (3-6-1) Playoffs: 1%.
Lions (4-7)# Playoffs: 1%.
Panthers (2-8) Playoffs: <1%.** - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and SEA, MIN wins.

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2013 Draft Order

Percentages are odds of getting that draft pick or higher. Does not account for trades. Teams shown are top-5 >25%.

Chiefs (1-9) - #1 53%... Top-3 87%... Top-5 97%.
Jaguars (1-9) - #1 27%... Top-3 77%... Top-5 90%.
Browns (2-8) - #1 11%... Top-3 49%... Top-5 74%.
Panthers (2-8) - #1 6%... Top-3 34%... Top-5 60%.
Eagles (3-7) - #1 1%... Top-3 15%... Top-5 37%.
Rams (3-6-1) - #1 <1%... Top-3 9%... Top-5 32%.
Raiders (3-7) - #1 2%... Top-3 18%... Top-5 38%.
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