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Old 11-05-2012   #93
JCTexan
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Default Re: AFC South .. that cake looks to be turning to mud

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
I wouldn't think too much on "having to" sweep the Colts this year. We play in Indy week 17 & if Kubiak does what he did last year (& I think he should) we'll be playing our JV team against them. Even if Homefield is on the line, I think he'll play the starters to see how it goes, to keep them in a rhythm, but we'll see Forsette & Grimes featured by mid second qtr. Crick & Mitchell, Brahman & Mister getting most of the defensive snaps.

As far as two games behind, I'll start to worry if they beat the Patriots. Next week they play the Jags, it's almost a bye week for them, while we go see the Bears. Then we'll play the Jags at home & they'll go see the Brady's. So if we lose to the Bears & they beat the Patriots two games from now they'll have gained a game on us. 8-2 vs 7-3

From there, they've got Buffalo, Detroit, Tennessee, Houston, Kansas City, & Houston

We'll have Detroit, Tennessee, New England, Indy, Minnesota, Indy.

By the time they come to Reliant, they can be 10-3, We could be 10-3 if we lose to New England & Chicago & they beat New England.

If we beat them at home, we go to 11-3, they go to 10-4

If they beat Kansas City then they'll be 11-4 when we see them in Indy. If we beat Minnesota, we'll be 12-3

So, let's say that's the case, let's say we lose that game & we're both 12-4, who wins the division?

I don't think it will happen that way. I think we beat Chicago & they lose to New England, they may even lose to the Jags next week (unlikely, but... ) So if we beat Chicago & they lose to New England we'll be 13-3 going into Indy & they'll be 10-5 & the game won't matter, unless we're going for homefield, but I doubt homefield will be enough for Gary to keep the starters in all game.


Sorry for the rant, just thinking out loud.
First tiebreaker is h2h. It would be tied at that stage, so scratch that off. The 2nd tiebreaker scenario would be the divisional games. The Colts have already lost to Jacksonville so Houston would hold the tiebreaker in this scenario.
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