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Old 10-02-2012   #72
CloakNNNdagger
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Default Re: Are we overusing Foster?

A MUST READ: Effect of Running Back Carries
on Future Production
on this very subject that I just fortuitously came across, published today. It covers, in in-depth detail, the very subject we have been debating here.

Quote:
In fantasy football, it's often difficult to predict which fantasy players will have a significant drop-off in production from one year to the next. This can yield devastating consequences for your team during your fantasy football draft, as you pay a premium price for a player just to have them crush your team with a very substandard season that did not warrant their high draft status. In this article, we will analyze yet another factor that can contribute to a disappointing fantasy season: The effect of Running Back Carries ( Running Back Attempts ).

Running backs are one of the crucial positions in most fantasy football leagues. While running backs can provide a consistently high source of fantasy points week in and week out and are in high demand on fantasy draft day, they are also prone to suffering a significant decrease in production after carrying the ball too many times in the preceding season. A running back's body is a machine, and, like all machines, they can only perform their function so many times before they must be replaced by a newer version (or sent in for repair). With that in mind, there are two measures (absolute and relative) to evaluate the wear and tear of running backs:

1. The absolute measure of the number of carries (attempts) a running back has had in the previous season (Table 1).
2. The relative measure in the increase in the number of carries from season to season (Table 2).

Both of these measures are indicators for a potential drop-off in production from one season to the next, and we have compiled two tables to help illustrate these points. Table 1 lists every NFL player that has experienced a workload of 370 carries or more in a season (through 2011) followed by their performance in the subsequent season.
Yes, this is a fantasy site. But it has an unbelievably detailed breakdown (with easy-to-review table presentation) of what has happened to all the top high-carry NFL RBs following their work horse exposures..........and, with very isolated exception, it's not very good news at all. If it teaches you anything, it is that the human body has it's limitations.
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