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Old 09-17-2012   #9
ChampionTexan
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Default Re: Are we overusing Foster?

Two very related things factor into this and make me say no.

First, we're leading the NFL in time of possession by almost 2 minutes per game (essentially we're at 39 minutes/gm and second place is 37 minutes). This means we're going to run lots more plays than almost anybody else.

Which leads to the second point that we've run 151 plays from scrimmage second only to Philly who's run 163. However, the difference is that of the teams in the top five in plays run (New Orleans, New England, and KC round out the list), we're the only one who runs the ball in excess of 50% of the time. In fact if you include sacks as passing plays, none of the other 4 teams ran the ball more than 44% of the time, while we've run it 55%. Part of this may be that we've been comfortably ahead in both of our games by halftime, while the only comfortable lead any of the other 4 teams has seen was New England against the Titans in game one. More offensive plays from scrimmage for a team that runs as high a percentage of the time as any in the NFL translates to lots of carries for Mr. Foster.

To the original question - I said no, because while we should generally be successful in winning time of possesion battles, and therefore we'll run more plays, it won't always be to the degree the first two games have seen. At some point, we'll be playing closer games, and maybe even playing from behind, at which time the 55% run number will no doubt drop as will Arian's carries. I don't want to see him get over 400 carries this year, but I also don't think I will.
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