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Old 08-14-2012   #15
Texanmike02
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Default Re: Tips for a FF rookie needed?

I haven't played much fantasy football for the last 6 years (played in one league 2 years ago) but I used to win my league routinely. If you want to really have a good draft you need a system. I've got a spreadsheet that I built (somewhere) that I'll look for that will calculate points by every player from last year based on your scoring system. The next thing that it did was calculate the opportunity cost of picking every player (based on how many you start at each position) vs picking other players. It only worked for the previous year's stats but it gave you a great idea of how valuable each position actually is in your league. Everyone will tell you that "must have a top flight QB" or that "RBs are over valued" or that "Receivers are the most important" but in reality it varies based on several things. If you are in a league that puts a premium on different types of yards (rushing vs passing) or rewards special teams performances (some leagues don't) then the most valuable commodities change. The nice thing about the calculator was that it would update as people were drafted to give you the most valuable player (and the most valuable player based on who you had). For example(situation not realistic just for illustration purposes) if you have Foster/Johnson/AD and in a 1QB 2RB 2WR system and had to choose between MJD and Brees it would tell you to go with brees but if you had Foster/johnson/manning and choose between mjd and brees it would tell you to take brees.

Of course it wasn't perfect but it was really helpful I drafted using it exclusively one year and won the league with only one trade (traded for a new rb when edge went down).

Hopefully even if I can't find it the process it went through will help you build a draft strategy. If you were able to go in and modify for predictions (older players regress, younger most likely progress, for example [I had a program to calculate standard deviations for that too]) then you could develop a killer tool. I've thought about turning it into an Android app before.

Mike
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