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Old 07-07-2012   #45
The Pencil Neck
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Default Re: The Texans a run-first team, I think not!

Quote:
Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
As I understand, it looks like TPN used stats for 16 regular season games and counted the entire game.
This also held out in the play-offs.

There were 546 rushing attempts on record out of 1,056 total plays.
And he didn't account for situations like a sack (which is actually a pasing play, but was recorded as a rushing attempt.)
There are other circumstances which I can bring up later - like a busted play, where the QB scrambled and gain a yard or two; these were also passing plays but ended up being running plays.

By "my defintion", one needs to look at the first half stats (and/or the "so-called" 25 scripted plays the Texans ran to determine whether they were a RUN-FIRST team or not.

So far by my count, the distribution in the first eight games of the season resulted in 21 more pass plays in the second half.

The second half of the season saw a plus five count in favor of the passing game despite a multitude of players at QB.

In the play-offs, we were even against the Bengals and passed 4 more times in the Ravens game.

All this despite the in-and-out of QBs throughout the season and your #1 receiver on the shelf for 9 games (while rounding into shape in the first couple of games back and playing a few games less than 100% due to the injury.)
This is all true EXCEPT that according to Pro Football Reference sacks were NOT included in the rushing attempts. In those numbers, there is the total number of plays, the total number of pass attempts (where the ball was actually thrown), and the total number of rush attempts (which excludes sacks.) If you add rush attempts to pass attempts, it does not add up to the number plays. So I based my percentages entirely off of rush attempts which numerically lumps the sacks in with the pass attempts.

Almost sacks that turn into rushes are counted as rushing attempts but numerically, I think that's small enough to be inconsequential except for a few QBs. (And that would tend to raise the rushing percentage, not decrease it.)

But the reason I put those numbers up there is because you're looking at the Texans out of context of the rest of the league. Looking at anything only in terms of how many of these plays the Texans ran vs. the number of these plays the Texans ran without comparing that to all the other teams in the league doesn't tell you anything significant. A team that runs 50% of the time is balanced in terms of their play selection but they are unbalanced in terms of the type of team they are.

So there are apples and there are oranges. Are we a rushing-oriented team? Yes. We run for a higher percentage of our plays than any team except for the Broncos last year and the Broncos were an anomaly.

And whether a team was a rushing oriented team had zilch to do with whether they were running to close out games. The teams with the highest percentage of rushes were, in order: The Broncos, Us, The Niners, the Jaguars, the Chiefs, the Dolphins, the Bears, the Raiders, the Bengals, and the Panthers (which is a team where the QB scrambling would significantly reduce their actual rush percentage.) There's not a lot of winners in that list.

Are we a team that strives for balance? Yes. We try to balance out our play-calling so teams don't know whether to defend the pass or the rush. We try to disguise our plays so they look as similar from situation to situation as we can. And we try to pass when people expect the run and run when people expect the pass.

These are, for the most part, two different and unrelated things.
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