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Old 04-25-2012   #84
Dutchrudder 
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Default Re: Compensatory picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by MidtownMikey View Post
While I would love to do the trade DutchRudder suggests, it just wouldn't happen.

A 2013 3rd round pick is considered to be valued as a 4th round pick in this years draft by most systems. Throwing in a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick will definitely *NOT* get a team to trade a late 2nd round pick.

Looking back at previous trades involving a future 3rd round pick, I found 2 similar trades.

2005
64(2nd) = 84(3rd), 195(6th), next years 3rd

2009
91 (late third) = 137 (5th round, but first pick in 5th), 213 (7th round, but early), next years 3rd

We should either expect to have to trade our current 3rd round pick, a late round pick, and next year's 3rd for a 2nd, or expect to get at best a 3rd round pick, and that is only likely if we toss in a 2nd late round pick (say 5th round).

Overall I wouldn't kill the Texans if they trade away a future pick, but don't expect them to get equal value for a future pick as if it was a pick this year, it just doesn't happen that way. One reason the Patriots often trade for future picks is they can find a team desperate and therefore are able to get 2nd or 3rd round picks in a future trade for 3rd or 4th round picks in the current draft. If anything, that's what a good team does. It takes advantage of desperate teams, rather than acting desperate itself.
Ok, I admit a late second is a bit ambitious, but a 3rd is possible.

2007: Pats trade 91 (late 3rd) for Oakland's 7th (211) and future 3rd (69) in 2008.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft0...ory?id=2850327

This is overpaying for 121, but another example:
2007: Denver Broncos: Acquire pick No. 121 (fourth).
Minnesota Vikings: Acquire picks No. 176 (sixth round), No. 233 (seventh round) and the Broncos' third-rounder (73) in 2008.
*Minny traded the 73rd pick to the Chiefs as part of the Jared Allen trade, who selected Jamaal Charles with it.

It just goes to show that draft pick valuations are all over the place. The Vikes got more out of 121 than the Pats did out of 91. Just gotta find a GM that is frazzled or drunk and see if they will go for something like that. Offer up a 2013 3rd and a 2011 5th to see if you can get a mid 3rd in 2011 and take another player. Someone out there will probably bite.
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