Originally Posted by Quick II Draw
Um...Reiff will be gone in the top 15, and Glenn will probably not last to 26
Several mocks have Peter Konz and Kendall Wright lasting until pick 30 or more...which I disagree with, but it's possible.
Once you get out of the top picks, like picks 1 through 5 or 1 through 10...the draft gets fuzzy for a lot of teams. You're going to see teams go after CBs, Safeties, A center or two, WRs, TEs, RBs, LBs....so many positions that other teams need. When we look at OL, a lot of teams want to go with the flashier positions such as WR or RB.
Of the positions a team would LIKELY pick from (which is why I exclude QB here) there's LT, LG, C, RG, RT, RB, TE, WR, DL, LB, CB, and S. That's 12 possible positions to draft from over a period of 20 picks before us at #26 (and that's not even delineating a NT from a DT or an ILB from an OLB, etc.).
So let's assume there's only five "top" picks and therefore there's 20 more picks before us at #26. If each team took the "best" player from each of those twelve positions, then the top 12 guys from those 12 positions are gone and now at overall pick #18 we're into the 2nd tier of players for each of those 12 positions. We're picking 8 picks later and would have a shot at a 2nd tier guy in one of the four positions not yet picked at.
But here's where it gets awesome: Teams won't follow that hypothetical formula. Someone picking at #12 is going to pick the top S on the board. This will trigger a team at pick 20 to select the NEXT best S on the board. Multiple CBs are going to be picked along the way, too. Multiple RBs will go before our pick, as well. So it's possible that 1 guy out of the 2 or 3 that Kubiak is targeting will be there. Cordy Glenn or Zeitler or Konz or Rieff, etc.
Several teams are going to go for the sexy pick. Detroit finally wised up and stopped doing such a thing. They started focusing on the trenches and they're getting better because of that. Other teams will draft that WR or that RB and ignore one of the 2nd or 3rd-tier OL that we're targeting. That's my hunch. And if he IS gone, if there isn't a guy Kubiak wants there at 26...we will trade down.
Winston's release is the key. We're going balls to the wall for a right side OL and the fallback plan is to trade out of the 1st and use current roster depth (Shelley Smith, Antoine Caldwell, etc.) for our right side OL and use the compensatory picks (for having traded out of the 1st) to wreak havoc in rounds 2 through 4. One way or another, we're going to get value.