View Single Post
Old 05-04-2011   #1
brakos82
Hall of Fame
 
brakos82's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: LOHAR (Land of Hipsters and Rain)
Section: 1009 E. Union
Posts: 19,698
Rep Power: 48009 brakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respectedbrakos82 is a quality contributor and well respected
Send a message via AIM to brakos82
Default 2012 Hurricane Season

Once again hurricane season is nearly upon us (starts June 1), and the tropical Atlantic waters are looking favorable for another active season. After last year's 19 named systems, we currently expect a less active overall season across the basin. However, the proverbial "lid to the popcorn popper", the Bermuda High that normally sits over the mid-latitude Atlantic during the summer and early fall, is expected to be in place this season, so storms are expected to be pointed farther south, towards the Caribbean, GOMEX, and southeast coastlines. Neutral or La Nina conditions are expected to persist in the Pacific basin through this season, leading to a more active Atlantic season than average.

Pre-season storm predictions are consistent across the board, with expectations of an active season. 15-17 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, with 5 possibly becoming major.

Predictions from Colorado State University:
- 72% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%)
- 48% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31%)
- 47% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30%)
- 61% chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42%)

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney


May 2 SST anomalies showing warmer than average waters over the tropical Atlantic.



Current wide view of the Atlantic Basin.
__________________
Better than Vista, and 30% more cats than last year's model!

Quote:
Originally Posted by TexanSam View Post
For being the most intelligent form of life on our planet, we sure do some incredibly stupid things.
brakos82 is offline   Reply With Quote