You may end up being right about your prediction ... who knows, right?
But the flaw in your argument is that you're using actual performance alone as your measure of talent, instead of upside potential. An athletic, even if raw, specimen will always raise eyebrows in whatever league...from Hollings to Dwight Howard. Why?
Because it's better to have a specimen that has the full spectrum of qualities, both the unteachable and the teachable...than a lesser raw specimen with the teachable.
...assuming the coach is confident in his coaching abilities...