I've seen some people posting about the compensatory pick we should expect for Dunta Robinson. While waiting for AdamJT13's annual anaysis (followed by the actual announcement), I'm trying to determine what the chances are that we'll actually get that pick.
The key thing is that we have to have lost more "qualifying" free agents than we signed. If we lost the same number, we can end up with only a 7th round pick. If we lost fewer, then we get no compensatory pick... Picks for players lost get "canceled" by picks for players signed.
Obviously we lost Dunta, and he should qualify for a high pick (I'd guess 3rd round, given his large contract).
I think Chester Pitts is the only other player we lost, and I am having difficulty figuring out whether or not he will qualify. He was signed by Seattle to a contract that should be large enough to qualify, didn't play for them, was released in October, then re-signed by them a few days later, and played some for them in the later part of the season. I am not sure how he will count - it seems there's a chance he might not be a "qualifying" player due to the release/resign, and I think he was signed fairly late the first time, which I believe can also affect whether the player qualifies.
Now, I'm trying to determine which players we brought in as free agents might "qualify." Neil Rackers is a clear qualifier - UFA signee with a decent contract (avg. over $2 million per year). I don't think that Matt Leinart or Derrick Ward qualify, since they were released from their earlier teams, rather than leaving as UFAs. Same goes for people like Jason Allen, Quintin Demps, Jarvis Green, Stanford Keglar (forgot we had some of them!). Am I forgetting any other (significant) FA signees?
If Rackers is our only qualifying signee, then the question comes down to whether or not Chester Pitts qualifies as a compensatory-worthy signing. If he does, then he will "cancel" the Rackers signing, and we should get a 3rd round pick for Dunta. If Pitts does not count, though, then we have no net loss in number of free agents, and so the best we can hope for is a compensatory pick at the end of the 7th round! That's a huge difference, and so what we really need to know is whether or not Pitts will count toward the compensatory selection.