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-   -   2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99879)

awc713 04-26-2013 04:59 PM

2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
if theres a similar thread already started, feel free to shut it down.

i was wondering what people are expecting from hopkins in year 1.

anybody have projections/ guesses as to the stats we should expect from him?

i'm gonna say 5 touchdowns, 650 yards.

with walter gone and devier still recovering, it looks like hopkins will be able to get a good amount of PT...though this has been rare, recently, for rookie WRs...

too high? too low? whats your guess/ explanation?

The Pencil Neck 04-26-2013 05:25 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awc713 (Post 2156785)
if theres a similar thread already started, feel free to shut it down.

i was wondering what people are expecting from hopkins in year 1.

anybody have projections/ guesses as to the stats we should expect from him?

i'm gonna say 5 touchdowns, 650 yards.

with walter gone and devier still recovering, it looks like hopkins will be able to get a good amount of PT...though this has been rare, recently, for rookie WRs...

too high? too low? whats your guess/ explanation?

I'm expecting him to step in and take KW's spot. But more importantly, I'm expecting him to be a SERIOUS upgrade over KW. I'm actually expecting him to be similar to KW during KW's best season.

So I'm expecting 55 catches, 800+ yards, and 8 TDs.

eriadoc 04-26-2013 05:50 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?

Rey 04-26-2013 05:53 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck (Post 2156799)
I'm expecting him to step in and take KW's spot. But more importantly, I'm expecting him to be a SERIOUS upgrade over KW. I'm actually expecting him to be similar to KW during KW's best season.

So I'm expecting 55 catches, 800+ yards, and 8 TDs.

Man...Those are lofty expectations...

I gotta think about this...

awc713 04-26-2013 05:53 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by eriadoc (Post 2156813)
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?

i really dont know much about Hopkins other than he has huge hands, has a big frame...i think he'll be clutch on 3rd downs, and hopefully in the red zone (why i have so many touchdowns for a rookie WR)

as far as comparing him to other players...i was hoping other people could come in this forum and educate us on hopkins, what to expect....didnt watch clemson football at all, so i dont really know....just saying it looks like the opportunity is going to be given for him to succeed

TEXANRED 04-26-2013 05:56 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.

The Pencil Neck 04-26-2013 05:57 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by eriadoc (Post 2156813)
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?

He's also been compared to Roddy White. In Roddy White's rookie year he got 29 catches for 446 yards and 3 TDs.

BUT.

You've got to look at the context. Roddy White was on a run-first Mike Vick squad that threw for about 2400 yards total and where Alge Crumpler led all receivers with 65 receptions and 877 yards.

With Reggie Wayne, he was the 3rd option behind Marvin Harrison who had 109 catches and 1524 yards and Marcus Pollard who had 47 catches and 739 yards.

So... yeah. You're right. That's a better way to look at it.

So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.

The Pencil Neck 04-26-2013 05:57 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Rey (Post 2156815)
Man...Those are lofty expectations...

I gotta think about this...

Yeah. Ignore me. That was the draft excitement posting.

awc713 04-26-2013 05:59 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TEXANRED (Post 2156818)
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.

only thing is....martin seems more like a slot receiver whereas hopkins has the body of a #2...? plus we have to replace KW, who was in a lot of blocking plays...

is hopkins good at blocking?

Vance87 04-26-2013 05:59 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
As long as he helps us win a championship.

TEXANRED 04-26-2013 06:04 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awc713 (Post 2156823)
only thing is....martin seems more like a slot receiver whereas hopkins has the body of a #2...? plus we have to replace KW, who was in a lot of blocking plays...

is hopkins good at blocking?

Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.

Vance87 04-26-2013 06:06 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TEXANRED (Post 2156826)
Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.

As of right now he is #4 on the depth chart, it won't take much to surpass Jean though.

The Pencil Neck 04-26-2013 06:08 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
I expect Hopkins to be KW's replacement and be the #2 by the opener. I expect Martin to continue to be our Slot guy and Jean to be AJ's backup.

DX-TEX 04-26-2013 06:12 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
:trophy:

Anything else = bum status

Big Lou 04-26-2013 06:14 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TEXANRED (Post 2156826)
Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.

I just can't see Martin as the starter at the #2 spot, he's too small to block. I think Lestar starts over Martin regardless of what the depth chart on the mothership shows, but I have a feeling Nuk is the starter.

Wolf6151 04-26-2013 06:16 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
I expect a good season where he get's eased into the game slowly, 30-35 catches and 350-400 yds.


If your LeStar Jean you just saw your job get put in serious jeopardy.

eriadoc 04-26-2013 06:19 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awc713 (Post 2156816)
i really dont know much about Hopkins other than he has huge hands, has a big frame...i think he'll be clutch on 3rd downs, and hopefully in the red zone (why i have so many touchdowns for a rookie WR)

as far as comparing him to other players...i was hoping other people could come in this forum and educate us on hopkins, what to expect....didnt watch clemson football at all, so i dont really know....just saying it looks like the opportunity is going to be given for him to succeed

I think he'll get a chance to succeed, but it'll be measured. It's not like the Texans chose a blue chipper that they'll go out of their way to feed the ball. Hell, AJ was a blue chip prospect and he got 66 catches for 976 yards his rookie season. And his career high in TDs is 9, with 8 three other times. We got one post saying Hopkins needs to come in as a rookie and put up numbers just short of AJ's rookie year.

Just for perspective, guys that were drafted 20 or lower (arbitrary number, but later in the first round) recently:

2012: Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick (#33 overall)
2011: Jon Baldwin
2010: Demaryious Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

So let's shift the analysis just a bit. How many TARGETS do you think Hopkins will get? In their rookie years, the above players put up:

Wright: 64-626-4 (104 targets)
Jenkins: 0-0-0 (0)
Quick: 11-156-2 (28)
Baldwin: 21-254-1 (52)
Thomas: 22-283-2 (39)
Bryant: 45-561-6 (72)
Harvin: 60-790-6 (75)
Nicks: 47-790-6 (75)
Britt: 42-701-3 (75)

So do you think Hopkins is going to get targeted 70-something times, or closer to 30-40?

Walter got targeted 68 times last year. He had 41 catches for 518 yards, 2 TDs, 12.6 avg. If you think Hopkins takes every one of Walter's targets, as a rookie, you should probably realistically expect similar numbers.

The TDs are just a pipe dream. This team doesn't throw a lot of TDs to any given WR.

eriadoc 04-26-2013 06:24 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck (Post 2156820)

So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.

I was typing up my big long post while you posted this. I think those are reasonable stats to hope for, but I kind of doubt the TDs. My only real expectation for Hopkins this year is to see good things when he does touch the ball. I doubt he'll see 50 targets, much less 70. Kubiak won't likely put that big a load on a rookie WR. JMO.

ATXtexanfan 04-26-2013 07:39 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
First downs

ArlingtonTexan 04-26-2013 07:52 PM

Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by eriadoc (Post 2156836)
I think he'll get a chance to succeed, but it'll be measured. It's not like the Texans chose a blue chipper that they'll go out of their way to feed the ball. Hell, AJ was a blue chip prospect and he got 66 catches for 976 yards his rookie season. And his career high in TDs is 9, with 8 three other times. We got one post saying Hopkins needs to come in as a rookie and put up numbers just short of AJ's rookie year.

Just for perspective, guys that were drafted 20 or lower (arbitrary number, but later in the first round) recently:

2012: Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick (#33 overall)
2011: Jon Baldwin
2010: Demaryious Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

So let's shift the analysis just a bit. How many TARGETS do you think Hopkins will get? In their rookie years, the above players put up:

Wright: 64-626-4 (104 targets)
Jenkins: 0-0-0 (0)
Quick: 11-156-2 (28)
Baldwin: 21-254-1 (52)
Thomas: 22-283-2 (39)
Bryant: 45-561-6 (72)
Harvin: 60-790-6 (75)
Nicks: 47-790-6 (75)
Britt: 42-701-3 (75)

So do you think Hopkins is going to get targeted 70-something times, or closer to 30-40?

Walter got targeted 68 times last year. He had 41 catches for 518 yards, 2 TDs, 12.6 avg. If you think Hopkins takes every one of Walter's targets, as a rookie, you should probably realistically expect similar numbers.

The TDs are just a pipe dream. This team doesn't throw a lot of TDs to any given WR.

68 targets is silly low for a guy with the snaps that Walter got. 80 targets would be 5 a game and I think that is a realistically low if anything.


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