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-   -   A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99813)

Playoffs 04-23-2013 10:54 AM

A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
A Metrics Study Of UNDERVALUED Draft Prospects

Quote:

The majority of my writings on draft statistics have been on players who will be picked in the first three rounds, but late round prospects merit discussion as well. I’ve gone through and picked out players who had positive metrics in college, but just aren’t being discussed much in the draft process for one reason or another.

“One of the key purposes we developed the ICE system and created our specialized College X-Info statistical services was to help support our team clients’ efforts with identifying and evaluating mid-later round draft talent as well as experienced college free agents,” John Pollard, General Manager of Sports Solutions at STATS, said. “Most of us in the industry are aware of the top position players coming out of college, the 1st and 2nd round talent. The ICE application and X-info statistics services help our team clients build and validate their assessments of these players”

I’m going to explore some of the positive metrics for some mid to late round talent show why they could or should go higher than they are being projected. All statistics are from the STATS ICE program which has every BCS game charted from the entire 2012 season.

MONTEL HARRIS, RB – TEMPLE
Montel Harris is one of the most elusive backs...

STEDMAN BAILEY, WR – WEST VIRGINIA
Expected to go in the third round...

RYAN GRIFFIN, TE - CONNECTICUT
Some critics of Griffin have noted his lack of ability after the catch...

BRENNAN WILLIAMS, OT – NORTH CAROLINA
While everyone focuses on the big three OTs...

MESHAK WILLIAMS, DE/OLB – KANSAS STATE
Williams is probably the least discussed prospect...

JORDAN HILL, DT – PENN STATE
While big names like Sharif Floyd and Star Lotulelei dominate the discussion...

JOSH JOHNSON , CB – PURDUE
Defensive backs in general are a bit tricky to apply statistics to...

JOSH EVANS, S – FLORIDA
While teammate Matt Elam drew most of the attention at Florida, Josh Evans did an excellent job...

Playoffs 04-23-2013 10:56 AM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
A Metrics Study Of OVERRATED Draft Prospects

Quote:

Looking at the underrated players for my previous post exposed some prospects with less than desirable metrics. It’s not a concern if a top prospect has one or two bad metric categories if there are other positives to be had. It starts to be a problem when a player has universally bad stats across the board. Those are the type of players I picked out for these profiles.

I’ll explore those negative metrics and why these players may not be worth a high draft pick. All statistics are derived from the STATS ICE program which has data from every BCS game in the 2012 season.

JAWAN JAMISON, RB – RUTGERS
Jawan Jamison is often considered a mid-round prospect in the mold of former Rutger’s RB Ray Rice. At first blush his extra yardage rating is above-average and he seems to be a fine prospect. However, when you delve into the statistics, there are some glaring problems. In third-and-short situations as well as runs in the redzone, he averaged under two yards per carry, much lower than every other RB. Only 40% of his rushes resulted in quality plays for his team, compared to an average of 55-60% for every other RB.

Even his ability to gain extra yardage is trumped up by gaudy broken tackle numbers against FCS Howard University. It might be a stretch to compare him to Ray Rice or any other NFL RB.

KENNY STILLS, WR – OKLAHOMA
The numbers just don’t favor Kenny Stills. Many project him as a quick, slot receiver to be selected in the third round. Unfortunately, the things you’d want to see from a slot receiver weren’t there during college. His yards after the catch was extremely below-average, normally gaining only 3 yards after each reception. His hands were below-average at best, dropping 7.8% of all targets thrown his way.

JUSTIN HUNTER, WR – TENNESSEE
The metrics for Justin Hunter point to the same negative factors as Stills. Hunter dropped an astounding 12.1% of all targets thrown his way, which gives him the worst hands of any receiver slotted to be drafted in the first 5 rounds.

Hunter’s been billed as a physical specimen after his superb combine performance, but he was only able to garner 4.9 yards after the catch in 2012. That YAC isn’t as bad as Stills, but ideally you’d want more from a first round prospect. Other notable wide receivers such as Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 6.4 yards, Tavon Austin 8.2 yards, and Keenan Allen 6.8 yards.

JESSE WILLIAMS, DT – ALABAMA
College production is only a single part of the evaluation process, potential has to be included in any projection to the NFL. Williams’ production in college certainly leaves something to be desired.

When pass rushing, other first and second round DTs averaged a snaps per pressure (SPP) of 15.5, meaning they pressured the quarterback every 15.5 snaps. Williams had an SPP of 36, much lower than every other top prospect. He also had the least amount of tackles near or at the line of scrimmage among top DTs. Even after adjusting for his snap participation against rushing plays, his impact on the run game was low.

JON BOSTIC, LB - FLORIDA
There are many factors that go into a non-pass rushing LBs evaluation including coverage, pass rushing, and run support. Unfortunately, Bostic didn’t post quality metrics in any of those categories.

In run support he tied for the least amount of impact tackles with Manti Te’o at 14.5 (average was 23). In pass coverage, he was beat on 58.6% of targets and only defensed four passes. His pass rushing was about average, he garnered 11 pressures through the year- about the same as Te’o on a similar number of snaps. However, that may not be enough to make up for other deficiencies.

DAVID AMERSON, CB – NORTH CAROLINA STATE
It’s well known that Amerson had a rough year in 2012, however may are still projecting him to be selected in the secound round. The metrics would suggest that he belongs among corners slotted to go in the fourth round and later. Amerson was targeted fifth-most among top CBs, which means he was thrown at every 5.1 snaps.

Unlike other top CBs such as Dee Milliner who were targeted frequently but not beat often, Amerson was beat 46% of the time. To contrast, top CBs like Xavier Rhodes and Milliner were only beat 38.2% and 40.6% of the time respectively. In addition, he also missed the most tackles by a wide margin (13) and gave up 8 touchdowns.

ERIC REID, S – LSU
There are many who like Reid as a first round safety, maybe even as the second one off the board. The numbers couldn’t tell a different story. Reid’s burn rate is glaringly bad.

The safety class on the whole was beat on 52% of all targets. Eric Reid was beat on 61% of all targets, worst among the safety class this year. That may be acceptable if he played well as a box safety, but the metrics suggest that’s unlikely. He failed to make many impact tackles, 8.5 for Reid compared to an average of 10.5 for the group. On top of that he missed 14 tackles, second worst in the safety group behind Shamarko Thomas.

OTHER STATISTICALLY OVERRATED PLAYERS:
Johnthan Banks
Johnathan Hankins
Kenjon Barner
Zaviar Gooden
Bacarri Rambo
Keenan Allen

Dutchrudder 04-23-2013 12:52 PM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
Nifty, interesting article. Just for the heck of it, our TT mock draft had the underrated guys at:

MONTEL HARRIS, RB – TEMPLE - UDFA

STEDMAN BAILEY, WR – WEST VIRGINIA - 128th overall 49ers


RYAN GRIFFIN, TE - CONNECTICUT - UDFA

BRENNAN WILLIAMS, OT – NORTH CAROLINA - 76th overall Chargers

MESHAK WILLIAMS, DE/OLB – KANSAS STATE - UDFA


JORDAN HILL, DT – PENN STATE - 136 overall to Philly

JOSH JOHNSON , CB – PURDUE - UDFA

JOSH EVANS, S – FLORIDA - 134 to KC

mussop 04-23-2013 06:03 PM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
Kenny Stills over rated? Don't see it. Hardly ever hear anyone talking him up. I think he is one of the most under rated prospects in this draft.

Insideop 04-23-2013 11:17 PM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
This is why I hope the Texans stay away from Hunter in the 1st.

Quote:

JUSTIN HUNTER, WR – TENNESSEE
The metrics for Justin Hunter point to the same negative factors as Stills. Hunter dropped an astounding 12.1% of all targets thrown his way, which gives him the worst hands of any receiver slotted to be drafted in the first 5 rounds.

Hunter’s been billed as a physical specimen after his superb combine performance, but he was only able to garner 4.9 yards after the catch in 2012. That YAC isn’t as bad as Stills, but ideally you’d want more from a first round prospect. Other notable wide receivers such as Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 6.4 yards, Tavon Austin 8.2 yards, and Keenan Allen 6.8 yards.

Insideop 04-23-2013 11:54 PM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
Of the Undervalued players I noticed several the Texans may have their eyes on and seem to fit the Texans M.O. of players they try to select.

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Ryan Griffin, TE - Connecticut
Some critics of Griffin have noted his lack of ability after the catch, the statistics couldn’t disagree more. At 7.2 yards after the catch, the big TE has the second highest YAC in the entire class only behind Travis Kelce (10 yards/ catch) and ahead of consensus number one TE, Tyler Eifert. Per STATS ICE, Griffin didn’t drop a single ball this year showing excellent hands. His strong hands and YAC allowed him to convert 72.4% of his receptions into first downs or touchdowns for the Huskies.
Griffin seems like a likely Texan pick at TE with great hands. Not to sure about his blocking skills but Draft Scout says he's an aggressive blocker who's tough and compares to Garrett Graham. He's rated to go in the 7th or FA.

Quote:

Brennan Williams, OT – North Carolina
While everyone focuses on the big three OTs and athletic specimens like Menelik Watson, Brennan Williams had a very quiet 2012 season (in a good way). Williams only allowed 5 combined pressures the entire season at UNC, less than all of the big three OTs. He may be underrated or underappreciated in the media, but expect teams to take note of his quality pass blocking.
Williams has been picked by several on this MB and other sites to be a fit for the Texans.

Quote:

Jordan Hill, DT – Penn State
While big names like Sharif Floyd and Star Lotulelei dominate the discussion about defensive tackles, Jordan Hill deserves to be discussed based on his stats alone. As a pass rushing DT, Hill grades out with a Snaps Per Pressure (SPP) of 13.3, which makes him the most efficient pass rusher of the DTs (slightly ahead of Sheldon Richardson) and more efficient than some pass rushing DEs like Datone Jones. Hill also had the most combined tackles in the backfield and 1-2 yards from the LOS (25 tackles), more than any defensive tackle. Based on these metrics alone, Hill should be considered solid all-around DT to be picked earlier than the 4th-5th round he’s projected in.
Hill seems like a Wade pick with his quickness as a pass rushing DT. Draft Scout also says he has a "non-stop motor" which is another trait Wade seems to covet.

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Josh Johnson , CB – Purdue
Defensive backs in general are a bit tricky to apply statistics too, but there are some things we can look at to evaluate their play quality in college. Two of my favorite stats are pass defensed per target and how often a player was beaten on their targets. With 19 passes defensed on 86 targets in 2012, Johnson had the best ability to knock down balls on a per target basis amongst late round CBs. He also was burned on only 44% of his targets, which is to say 37 passes thrown in his area were completed. That burn rate is lower than every CB expected to be picked after round 3 and equivalent to some CBs like Johnthan Banks and Darius Slay. To see Johnson’s penchant for knocking down passes (and generating pass interference penalties) see his play against Notre Dame's star TE Eifert.
Purdue player and CB. I'll be surprised if Rick passes on this one.

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Josh Evans, S – Florida
While teammate Matt Elam drew most of the attention at Florida, Josh Evans did an excellent job in coverage for the Gators. Evans’ burn rate was 35%, one of the lowest in the entire NCAA last year. Often times playing deep safety, Evans was only targeted 20 times the entire season. On those 20, he defensed 6 passes – the same amount as Kenny Vaccaro on far more targets. While he didn’t make many impact tackles, he did a solid job at tackling with 11 missed tackles in total, about average for this safety class. Evans may not be the complete package as a safety right now, but certainly has potential as a starting FS with his coverage skills.
Evans is another guy that a lot of people want us to go after and he seems like a good pupil for Reed and Manning to mentor. He's slated by Draft Scout to go in the 4th and Walter Football puts him between the 3rd and 5th rounds.

TejasTom 04-24-2013 06:36 AM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Playoffs (Post 2154539)

Wow, I've seen at least half of these on mocks for us.

Historically, how have their evaluations panned out?

Playoffs 04-24-2013 07:51 AM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TejasTom (Post 2154891)
Historically, how have their evaluations panned out?

I don't know, this is the first I've seen these metrics at TSV in this much depth.

76Texan 04-24-2013 09:37 AM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
I've read them before, and I like the method, but it doesn't work for all players.
Also, it seems to me they only take into consideration the last year.

Underrated or overrated depends on where a player is drafted.

They didn't like Hunter in the first round, and rightfully so.
Hunter dropped too many balls per catchable passes and is therefore unreliable in that regard.
That's why I didn't want to put him in the first round.
However, his measurables and athleticism is way up there such that his ceiling is higher than a guy like Stedman Bailey, whose production is amongst the best, if not the best.

Bailey had done pretty much everything right to achieve the results.
He runs smart route (giving his QB plenty of room away from the defender to throw the ball open.) He played physically to fight off his defender and beat him to the spot. He worked hard and was very efficient in blocking even against bigger defenders. He consistently worked to keep BOTH feet in bound. He's ready to play soon, if not right away.

But his measurables are quite "pedestrian".
With him what you see is what you get, but he will be playing against better players in the NFL.
If he has not much more room to grow, he won't be as successful at the next level. Perhaps he can work to improve his deep speed at least a little.

Based on his production, end of the fourth is exceptional low, and so they deem that Bailey is underrated.
I agree. I would put Bailey early to mid third.
At the least, he can be a slot receiver.
In a spread offense, he might have a little more value, and should probably earn a late second round grade.

76Texan 04-24-2013 09:46 AM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
For Kenny Stills, they think he's overrated as a third rounder.
Normally, I would agree; however, there are seasons as to why his YAC isn't all that.

That offense, between the QB and line play, couldn't afford a vertical game.
They had to throw short often, and the defense knows it.
They can play it tighter, daring the QB to go deep.
When the D play tight, YAC is harder to get.

A part of Stills' game (the deep routes) couldn't be exploited; some of his values were not realized.

Overall, Stills has that untapped ceiling, so to me, a third round grade is more in line. I'm not sure he even lasts to our spot.

Playoffs 04-24-2013 10:35 AM

Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects
 
I'll be interested to see how valid the metrics projections are using them across all of college football for predicting pro football success. There are reasons it works in baseball that don't necessarily translate to college football, imo.

Would they have warned us off Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers, Troy Edwards, or all the high drafted D-linemen who regularly bust in the NFL? I dunno.


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