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-   -   Reasonable price for Barwin? *UPDATE* Signed by Eagles (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=98415)

thunderkyss 02-03-2013 11:48 AM

Reasonable price for Barwin? *UPDATE* Signed by Eagles
 
This is really a gauge of Richard Smith's performance. Barwin's future with the Texans will be front & center of this year's off season. Will Smith be able to land him? Or won't he? Will he have to overpay to keep him?

In order to determine if "we" overpay or not, we need to throw some numbers out there. Most fans generally try to stay away from mentioning a specific number as most fans don't know what "fair value" is or the intricacies of the salary cap.

Most likely we'll get it wrong anyway, so let's just throw a number out there & hope the aggregate will give us something to work with. It's going to be a poll, the numbers should be simple (million per year), & we'll be able to figure an average dollar amount.

Now, when we're talking about cost, the only thing that really matters is his cap number. The cap number usually changes over the career of the athlete, so, to keep it simple, we're just talking about Barwin's avg cap number over the next three years. So if you think, like I do, that Barwin should not count against the cap more than $2M/yr over the next three years, your number is $2M/yr.

If his cap number works out to be $2M/yr for 2013, $2M/yr for 2014, and $6M/yr for 2015, his average would be $3.3M/yr & I would say Smith slightly overpaid.

There are all kinds of other implications involved with a contract which would make it good/bad, but for this exercise we're just worried about his average cap number over the next three years.

So let's get started.

What is a reasonable price for Connor Barwin?

IDEXAN 02-03-2013 12:04 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
OK I'll bite: I expect Barwin gets a contract that averages 4 M a year over 4 to 5 years. Now only part of that will be guaranteed of course, but the "total compensation" will average 'bout 4 M a year. And that's market prices, so that meets my definition of "reasonable".

Honoring Earl 34 02-03-2013 12:07 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
He averaged 7 sacks a year the last two years . I'll look up someone in that range .

Playoffs 02-03-2013 12:50 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Some team will overpay for Barwin, methinks.

It's not like it would be difficult to outbid us since we're up against the cap.

Lucky 02-03-2013 01:08 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by IDEXAN (Post 2119935)
OK I'll bite: I expect Barwin gets a contract that averages 4 M a year over 4 to 5 years.

Jarret Johnson got a 4 year $19 million deal from the Chargers last year. Barwin will certainly get more than that, because he's 5 years younger. I just think he will be overpayed but some needy team. Barwin is not even the 6th best player on this defense. Not worth pursuing.

ThaShark316 02-03-2013 01:14 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ckhouston (Post 2119933)
I think they have to consider the future when they offer whatever they offer next year to keep anyone. After his rookie deal Watt is going to get PAID. Maybe the largest contract for a defensive player EVER. If he wins D player of the year again or breaks the sack record then Marios contract will pale in comparison.

So they need to make sure they are ready for that and not blow it.


They'll never let Watt's rookie deal end, IMO. He'll get an extension beforehand, I'd say.

infantrycak 02-03-2013 01:28 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky (Post 2119958)
Jarret Johnson got a 4 year $19 million deal from the Chargers last year. Barwin will certainly get more than that, because he's 5 years younger. I just think he will be overpayed but some needy team. Barwin is not even the 6th best player on this defense. Not worth pursuing.

Not disagreeing but I have to say concerned because if they do move Reed to ILB that looks like they need to acquire 2 new OLB's - one starter and one rotation/depth and that is hoping Mercilus makes a healthy 2nd year leap.

IDEXAN 02-03-2013 01:32 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky (Post 2119958)
Jarret Johnson got a 4 year $19 million deal from the Chargers last year. Barwin will certainly get more than that, because he's 5 years younger.I just think he will be overpayed but some needy team.

I agree, if anything I might have understated Barwin's market value. But where's
your vote up there, mine is the only one > 3 M a year ?
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky (Post 2119958)
Barwin is not even the 6th best player on this defense. Not worth pursuing.

Possibly, but next to maybe only CB, he's plays the most important position in the 3-4. Obviously it therefor commands more cap space, maybe much more cap space than other positions.

Lucky 02-03-2013 01:39 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by IDEXAN (Post 2119964)
I agree, if anything I might have understated Barwin's market value. But where's
your vote up there, mine is the only one > 3 M a year ?

Possibly, but next to maybe only CB, he's plays the most important position in the 3-4. Obviously it therefor commands more cap space, maybe much more cap space than other positions.

I didn't vote because I don't feel the Texans should make a long term investment in Barwin. I just would rather see the Texans go with Mercilus and Reed at OLB next season.

Lucky 02-03-2013 01:42 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ckhouston (Post 2119960)
Watt
Cushing
J Jo
Ninja
Manning

I don't know ... who you got at 6th?

I would pay Jackson or Quin before I invested in Barwin. And I'm not huge fans of theirs (though Jackson made big strides in 2012). I expect Mercilus to be at least as good, if not better than Barwin in 2013. And Reed and Barwin are probably a push, with Reed still on his rookie deal.

76Texan 02-03-2013 01:49 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by IDEXAN (Post 2119935)
OK I'll bite: I expect Barwin gets a contract that averages 4 M a year over 4 to 5 years. Now only part of that will be guaranteed of course, but the "total compensation" will average 'bout 4 M a year. And that's market prices, so that meets my definition of "reasonable".

I also voted 4, but I think he may command more than that.

Wade should go after Shaun Phillips who might be looking at his last contract.
He's been taking 5; he might go for 4 or a little less with a long term deal. ???

beerlover 02-03-2013 01:57 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
6 mil is pretty cheap nowadays for starting DE/OLB's however anything more he's a goner :wadepalm:

TheDrifter 02-03-2013 02:10 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
The way alot of teams get burned in free agency is paying for a guys outlier performance instead of his average one.

We shouldn't pay for 2011 Conner Barwin...but someone probably will.

Uncle Rico 02-03-2013 02:22 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
what about using the franchise tag on him?

JCTexan 02-03-2013 02:23 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ckhouston (Post 2119960)
Watt
Cushing
J Jo
Ninja
Manning

I don't know ... who you got at 6th?

I say close between Barwin and Reed?

I would rather have Jackson, Quin & possibly Reed over Barwin.

For this discussion I will say anything over four million a year and he's no longer a Texan. I think another team will possibly spend 5M for him though. Four to five million is what he will get IMO.

Lucky 02-03-2013 02:27 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
I looked at the upcoming free agent list for DE/3-4 OLB, and Barwin has a lot of competition. Anthony Spencer, Michael Johnson, Osi Umenyiora, Cliff Avril, Matt Shaughnessy, Paul Kruger, Shaun Phillips. Where does Barwin fit on that list? How much $$$ is really out there for these pass rushers? This might not have been the best year for Connor to test free agency.

If he doesn't get a blow your socks offer, maybe Barwin would consider a one year deal in Houston. I doubt it, but I guess there's a bigger possibility than I had originally thought.

htowntexans1985 02-03-2013 02:31 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
I voted 3 mil. But honestly i hope they let him walk. His and cody's antics have grown thin. No need to mention the embarrasing "Letterman debacle". Hopefully he gets his bank i just hope it isnt here. The worlds largest hipster can shine elsewhere

Lucky 02-03-2013 02:39 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle Rico (Post 2119976)
what about using the franchise tag on him?

The franchise tage for LBs in 2012 was $8.8 million. Waaaaay too much for Barwin. I doubt the Texans have that kind of cap room, anyway.

76Texan 02-03-2013 03:55 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky (Post 2119981)
I looked at the upcoming free agent list for DE/3-4 OLB, and Barwin has a lot of competition. Anthony Spencer, Michael Johnson, Osi Umenyiora, Cliff Avril, Matt Shaughnessy, Paul Kruger, Shaun Phillips. Where does Barwin fit on that list? How much $$$ is really out there for these pass rushers? This might not have been the best year for Connor to test free agency.

If he doesn't get a blow your socks offer, maybe Barwin would consider a one year deal in Houston. I doubt it, but I guess there's a bigger possibility than I had originally thought.

I think the Cowboys just put a franchise tag on Spencer.
Is that right or is it too early to do so?
I just glanced through that piece so I wasn't sure.

I say if we can get Shaun Phillips for less, we should do it and save the cap to roll over to take care of Watt and Cushing when the time comess

TheDream34 02-03-2013 04:06 PM

Re: Reasonable price for Barwin?
 
Barwin's antics really statred to get on my nerves. I have no problem with a team wanting to have some fun, but throwing around letterman jackets for the world to see before a game against the New England Patriots is just unacceptable and it just shows that this team is not mentally ready play with the big boys of the NFL. No need to give good money to an average player with goofy looking hair.


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