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welsh texan 01-15-2013 02:12 PM

Regression?
 
Seeing a lot of people claiming we regressed this season. I'm not so sure.

As far as regular season record goes, we improved, fwiw.
In the playoffs we lost in the same round but to a much, much stronger opponent. I don't see any regression in terms of results there. Probably a slight step forward if anything.

As for any problems that you think you saw with the eye test...what new problems have come up? The D was decimated by injury all season long, our best lb, best cb, slot cb, dt all missing significant time. Same with our #3 S who we use plenty. Whilst we still battled to an improved record we had chance to give PT to lots of younger guys giving them a boost in their development over the offseason and allowing the coaches to find out exactly what they've got and what to replace.

On O we already knew Matts limitations, we already knew Kubes' issues, we lost our 2 experienced guys on the right side of the Oline early on, whether they'd lost the camp battles or not, you have to consider they knew the system and would have been in the rotation. We got plenty if guys in the mix to develop our young talent ahead of time. I see a win there.

We also managed to use Graham effectively for his first season featuring so much, the young group at WR may not have set the world alight but they all got experience that will aid their development.

The draft class of last year has me quietly confident too, Merci can develop and handled limited responsibility fairly well, the 2 wrs can both develop, Crick is promising as is Jones on the Oline.

So where's the regression?

Texecutioner 01-15-2013 02:19 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Were people saying this when we were 10-1? Nope, not a word. The majority were claiming that we were going to the SB and that we were the team to beat. Now our team regressed as a whole. Lol!

Sorry, but they did not regress. They improved, but they just collapsed at the end of the season on offense completely. They had bad coaching is what happened. They had a great team that began to believe their own hype and didn't handle adversity well at all. Those are things that the HC has to change.

Surreal McCoy 01-15-2013 02:21 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texecutioner (Post 2109732)
Were people saying this when we were 10-1? Nope, not a word. The majority were claiming that we were going to the SB and that we were the team to beat. Now our team regressed as a whole. Lol!

Sorry, but they did not regress. They improved, but they just collapsed at the end of the season on offense completely. They had bad coaching is what happened. They had a great team that began to believe their own hype and didn't handle adversity well at all. Those are things that the HC has to change.

QFT Although I would assert the defence had shown signs of serious stress fractures against anything other than the mildest of opponents starting in week 3.

MSR.

welsh texan 01-15-2013 02:31 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texecutioner (Post 2109732)
Were people saying this when we were 10-1? Nope, not a word. The majority were claiming that we were going to the SB and that we were the team to beat. Now our team regressed as a whole. Lol!

Sorry, but they did not regress. They improved, but they just collapsed at the end of the season on offense completely. They had bad coaching is what happened. They had a great team that began to believe their own hype and didn't handle adversity well at all. Those are things that the HC has to change.

I totally agree. And when has the mentality of the HC ever not been under scrutiny? It's been there all along, just the words used have changed, it used to be soft or finesse, now it's risk averse and too loyal.

I genuinely do not believe I found out anything new about this team this season, or the past 6 weeks, that is any worse than what I already knew.

I saw a picture of 2 guys wearing matching coats 6 weeks ago and I just knew what was happening. Even before the first NE game. I even saw AJ telling his team-mates to enjoy being #1 while it lasted and I didn't like it. I bet the Cards enjoyed being #1 4 months ago too.

But all that said, we knew what they were long ago didn't we? This season was a step forward, and dare I hope those lessons about mentality, now that its been the difference between a good season and a great season, instead of the difference between 8-8 or 9-7, or making the wildcard and not making the wildcard...maybe they'll finally get with the programme now?

Tailgate 01-15-2013 02:35 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Surreal McCoy (Post 2109734)
QFT Although I would assert the defence had shown signs of serious stress fractures against anything other than the mildest of opponents starting in week 3.

MSR.

Amplified by the loss of Cushing... The minute we lost him it was always going to be hard to improve off of last seasons playoffs. Losing @ Indy and losing HFA only furthered the chances of not improving past Divisional playoffs. Had we not lost Cush, I think we hang on to HFA and we are hosting AFC Championship playoff this weekend imo.

Corrosion 01-15-2013 02:35 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texecutioner (Post 2109732)
Were people saying this when we were 10-1? Nope, not a word. The majority were claiming that we were going to the SB and that we were the team to beat. Now our team regressed as a whole. Lol!

Sorry, but they did not regress. They improved, but they just collapsed at the end of the season on offense completely. They had bad coaching is what happened. They had a great team that began to believe their own hype and didn't handle adversity well at all. Those are things that the HC has to change.

Um , I can name two of us who were complaining of many of the issues the rest of you are now when the team was 10-1.


Quote:

Originally Posted by eriadoc
never overlook in victory what you wouldnt in defeat (or something to that effect - I cant find the exact quote)

I believe that was stated after the victory over the Jaguars in week 11 when we werecomplaining about how poorly they played.



They didnt have bad coaching or playcalling they had bad QB play - the two arent joined at the hip.

Kaiser Toro 01-15-2013 02:36 PM

Re: Regression?
 
No regression in the win column, but ceiling has been reached. The last six games of last year and the last six games of this year speak for themselves.

Quote:

"There's an old saying in Tennessee I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, fool me once, shame on shame on you. Fool me you can't get fooled again."

fiasco west 01-15-2013 02:41 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro (Post 2109750)
No regression in the win column, but ceiling has been reached. The last six games of last year and the last six games of this year speak for themselves.

I don't see how a ceiling has been reached...same for any team.

You either get better or worse in the NFL as they say, Texans will certainly lose players in the offseason and coaches and will replace those players...it remains to be seen if those changes benefit us or harm us.

But who knows what happens next year? Maybe Mercilus has a breakout year and Cush comes back looking like Peterson? Who knows?

Either way I don't think a ceiling has been reached, at the same time they can obviously get worse...

Playoffs 01-15-2013 02:54 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by welsh texan (Post 2109724)
So where's the regression?

I see it more as a result of subtraction. Subtraction of key O-line members, subtraction of Dreessen, subtraction of Cushing.

I do think Barwin, Reed, Manning regressed.

EllisUnit 01-15-2013 02:57 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fiasco west (Post 2109758)
I don't see how a ceiling has been reached...same for any team.

You either get better or worse in the NFL as they say, Texans will certainly lose players in the offseason and coaches and will replace those players...it remains to be seen if those changes benefit us or harm us.

But who knows what happens next year? Maybe Mercilus has a breakout year and Cush comes back looking like Peterson? Who knows?

Either way I don't think a ceiling has been reached, at the same time they can obviously get worse...

I tthink they mean the ceiling has been reached with 2 important components of this team. The QB and the Head coach

eriadoc 01-15-2013 03:09 PM

Re: Regression?
 
I hadn't thought about it before, but yeah, there was some regression. At least, there was in certain areas. I say that because I think the team was better last year. The OL was better, the run game was better, the defense as a whole was better, and special teams was better, even if not great. Then you have Schaub. I think he was better until the second half of this season. Frankly, I think Yates was as good or better last year than Schaub has been over the past six games. Prior to that, Schaub was clearly better.

Watt was a monster this year, but the overall pass rush was better last year. The secondary has been better this year overall IMO, but JJo was better last year. The linebackers were a ton better last year. The OL was better in both facets. The TEs were better. The FB was better. The WRs were worse because AJ was injured.

I can see the argument for regression. How that fits into this year's schedule and circumstances vs. last year's is anyone's guess, and clearly the record is different. But I think most people would agree that last year's TEAM was better, irrespective of a couple key positions.

The Pencil Neck 01-15-2013 03:10 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Every year is a different year.

Last year, we had a great opportunity because the Patriots were more vulnerable and our offense was (with Schaub at the helm) more potent.

BUT. Schaub was not at the helm at the end of last season.

We progressed this year. We ended up with a better regular season record. We ended up with higher expectations. And we collapsed at the end of the season.

Are we going to regress next year? Maybe, maybe not. Depends on the moves we make over the offseason and how lucky we are.

This is about an organization learning to win and growing into being a perennial winner. We've been jealous of the Colts and all those winning seasons they put together. Well, hopefully, we're at the beginning of one of those runs.

Runner 01-15-2013 03:15 PM

Re: Regression?
 
The Texans regressed. The regular season record improved, but the team had Dre and Schaub all year which balances out Cushing. The schedule wasn't as tough as last year, so that makes the better record a bit easier to reach.

Losing in the same round of the playoffs isn't better, and the Cushing excuse doesn't fly - again, they had Dre and Schaub this time.

They lost talent and depth last year due to the salary cap, and it wasn't replaced adequately by backups and the draft as was hoped by many. The talent is less.

The coaching is as uninspiring and sometimes clueless as it was three years ago when Kubiak should have been fired. The lack of growth there is regression, because Kubiak has a lot of room for growth and he isn't growing.

The Colts got better fast. Even if one can convince themselves the Texans are stagnant rather than regressing compared to last year's squad, they are definitely regressing relative to the division, and probably compared to other elite teams.

At least that's my opinion.

eriadoc 01-15-2013 03:25 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Corrosion (Post 2109749)
Um , I can name two of us who were complaining of many of the issues the rest of you are now when the team was 10-1.

I believe that was stated after the victory over the Jaguars in week 11 when we werecomplaining about how poorly they played.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/sho...87#post2064287

Here's another:

Quote:

Originally Posted by eriadoc
The rules favor the offense. The old adage "defense wins championships" is less true than it ever was, not that it was ever 100% true anyway. A great defense can hold down the QBs like Sanchez and Gabbert, but like we saw last year against Brees, when an elite QB has the ball with a couple minutes to go and the game on the line, it's now to the point where you expect that QB to deliver more often than not. This year, we have seen elite QBs like Rodgers, Manning, and Stafford (and Henne, LOL) tear up the Texans defense. You can blame injuries, but every team has injuries, and Rodgers faced them pretty close to their best.

If this defense can't find a way to stop guys like Brees, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers (much less Henne and Locker), then the offense has to step up. And I don't mean scoring 24 points against a hapless team like the Titans. I mean put up enough points to bury a team. When the playoffs come around, you only get one shot. There's no fixing it next week, and all these mindless chants of "11-1!!" won't matter.

Don't ignore in victory what you would not ignore in defeat.


fiasco west 01-15-2013 03:31 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EllisUnit (Post 2109779)
I tthink they mean the ceiling has been reached with 2 important components of this team. The QB and the Head coach

Maybe.

But coaches get better and worse. Some of them change and adjust and some of them just remain the same. Nothing says that Kubiak won't change, we only assume that on history and I blame no one for thinking that Kubiak can't improve as a coach.

I'm just saying, every year is different and for a NFL team it is hard to say the ceiling has been reached. I do think there is a ceiling with this team and it is relative to how much longer can AJ be a top 10 WR (he's still top 5...) because replacing that guy is going to be difficult!

I mean it just goes both ways. Watt will be lucky if he has another season like he did last season, you can argue that he's played as well as he could and the only way to go from there is down...Just don't tell Watt that!

deucetx 01-15-2013 03:31 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Let's look at this way...

Last year we had Yates and for a short period Leinart man six games for us. We were also missing Dre for quite some time last year. And now compare last year's passing offense to this year:


2011 - 3506 passing yards, 20 toucdowns, 9 interceptions, 7.0 Net Yards Per Attempt

2012 - 3830 passings yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 6.6 Net Yards Per Attempt

Sorry...but there is barely any difference. We had our starting quarterback and star receiver (only receiver really) all season long and got barely any different production. That is not progress. The offense should have expanded in some sort of way.

Now add the rushing offense:

2011 - 2448 yards, 18 touchdowns, 4.5 average
2012 - 2123 yards, 19 touchdowns, 4.2 average

Again...where is the progress? The running game took a step back. We all know it probably had more to do with the right side of the line than anything. Losing Butler in the preseason (we only lost one guy during that time by the way) meant little to nothing. Newton isn't a rookie so he knows the system and he beat out Butler before the injury. In other words, he was better than Butler (barely) and he still wasn't that good himself. Kind of says something about Butler who is generally injury prone at this point anyway.

Last year we had a more 'consistent' offense even if just mainly the run game. It had a double threat with Foster and Tate we didn't have this season. It was productive more often than not while it seemed to vanish too many times this year. The passing game didn't take a strong step forward that some would have expected with Schaub and Dre. The defense went from elite to just above average.

We had injuries but you know what...we'll have them again. Part of the game. Some of the injuries weren't heavy impacting. Our 3rd CB McCain? He regressed this season compared to last year. He was freaking horrible before getting hurt. Harris wasn't great but he actually did better then McCain so his injury meant little in the way of things. Demps injury? Same guy who got benched toward the end of the year for blowing coverages in favor of Shiloh Keo who can't cover what so ever. Cody injury? The same guy many think needs to be replaced. Mitchell is just as good as he is and they barely see the field anyway. Mitchell would see it more in passing situations because he's faster than Cody.

The Pencil Neck 01-15-2013 03:42 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Runner (Post 2109790)
The schedule wasn't as tough as last year, so that makes the better record a bit easier to reach.

I disagree with that.

I think we had a tougher schedule this year than we did last year. Just by record, our opponents this year were 127-129 while last year they were 116-140.

We had a 4-4 record against teams with winning records this year and those teams had a combined record of 88-40 and a 3-2 record against winning teams last year and they had a combined record of 64-32.

Last year was the year where we were feasting on weak opponents.

Texecutioner 01-15-2013 03:54 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Corrosion (Post 2109749)
Um , I can name two of us who were complaining of many of the issues the rest of you are now when the team was 10-1.

Sure there may have been a post or two, but I'm talking about the majority. Especially those that went bonkers the minute we lost the 2nd game of the season as if they needed professional help or something with a two loss team. I posted a thread on Thanksgiving called "Same ole Sorry Kubiak" which I posted during the game not knowing if they would win or lose. I posted the thread, because Gary showed his ass once again by putting the team in a bad position and caused the team to lose. Luckily for them they didn't lose due to the Lions being unable to execute and take advantage, but I was disgusted at the fact that Gary still hadn't learned from all of his previous mistakes that killed this team in previous years. Now in that thread, I was told to shut up by about 90% of the forum that elected to post in that thread. Everyone said shut up we're 10-1 blah blah blah!!! No one seemed to have a worry in the world. I sat back laughing, because I knew that if the outcome of the game was different despite the close score and everything else those same people would have been flipping out and criticizing Gary just as much. However, the Lions didn't execute and everyone wanted to act like Gary's awful play calling that caused the FG kicker to go out there and miss didn't even happen. The majority of time winning makes people forget or ignore what they see or notice in a game.







Quote:

Originally Posted by Corrosion (Post 2109749)
They didnt have bad coaching or playcalling they had bad QB play - the two arent joined at the hip.

If you're going to tell me that there wasn't poor coaching, well I don't know what to tell ya. One bad play isn't on coaching. A ton of bad plays all over the field from quarter one to quarter 4 is on coaching.

badboy 01-15-2013 03:56 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by deucetx (Post 2109814)
Let's look at this way...

Last year we had Yates and for a short period Leinart man six games for us. We were also missing Dre for quite some time last year. And now compare last year's passing offense to this year:


2011 - 3506 passing yards, 20 toucdowns, 9 interceptions, 7.0 Net Yards Per Attempt

2012 - 3830 passings yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 6.6 Net Yards Per AttemptSorry...but there is barely any difference. We had our starting quarterback and star receiver (only receiver really) all season long and got barely any different production. That is not progress. The offense should have expanded in some sort of way.

Now add the rushing offense:

2011 - 2448 yards, 18 touchdowns, 4.5 average
2012 - 2123 yards, 19 touchdowns, 4.2 average

Again...where is the progress? The running game took a step back. We all know it probably had more to do with the right side of the line than anything. Losing Butler in the preseason (we only lost one guy during that time by the way) meant little to nothing. Newton isn't a rookie so he knows the system and he beat out Butler before the injury. In other words, he was better than Butler (barely) and he still wasn't that good himself. Kind of says something about Butler who is generally injury prone at this point anyway.

Last year we had a more 'consistent' offense even if just mainly the run game. It had a double threat with Foster and Tate we didn't have this season. It was productive more often than not while it seemed to vanish too many times this year. The passing game didn't take a strong step forward that some would have expected with Schaub and Dre. The defense went from elite to just above average.

We had injuries but you know what...we'll have them again. Part of the game. Some of the injuries weren't heavy impacting. Our 3rd CB McCain? He regressed this season compared to last year. He was freaking horrible before getting hurt. Harris wasn't great but he actually did better then McCain so his injury meant little in the way of things. Demps injury? Same guy who got benched toward the end of the year for blowing coverages in favor of Shiloh Keo who can't cover what so ever. Cody injury? The same guy many think needs to be replaced. Mitchell is just as good as he is and they barely see the field anyway. Mitchell would see it more in passing situations because he's faster than Cody.

Where are you getting Matt's stats? He had 350/544 for 4,008 yds @ 7.37 64.3% and 22 TDS 12 INTs http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/...15/matt-schaub
http://www.nfl.com/player/mattschaub/2505982/profile

deucetx 01-15-2013 04:53 PM

Re: Regression?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by badboy (Post 2109840)
Where are you getting Matt's stats? He had 350/544 for 4,008 yds @ 7.37 64.3% and 22 TDS 12 INTs http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/...15/matt-schaub
http://www.nfl.com/player/mattschaub/2505982/profile

Thread is about team progress and such so those aren't Matt's stats. Those are Texans offensive stats.


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