11-1 thoughts
 

After watching Texans, it is obvious to me (still) that NT is our only dire need. I have to go that direction in first as only one after that round that I think that might start Sylvester Williams, should be there in second. I am very ambivalent about him. Williams gets some glowing praises from some and I like his personal story but his age next season 25 and actually watching him play makes me very cautious. I do think Alabama's Williams an early favorite of mine will be gone by our selection in first. I think it will be a reach but I have been so impressed with Luis Nix lll, I am moving him up from round two. The ND/Alabama game should be outstanding. Perfect scenario for me would be Smith trading up in high second to get Nix. I really like Baylor's Terrence Williams but LeStar Jean showed me what I needed against Tenn and he could be the heir to AJ. Williams in first, Nix high 2nd with OLB at our own 2nd would be thrilling. If Nix is gone (and may be if he explodes at combine) I'll probably look at Brandon Williams Missouri Southern State. I have not watched games but was alerted to him by another poster's comments. Reminds me of Nix in effort from film I've seen.

I have been resisting giving up on Quanteras Smith but since his ACL I have not been able to find if he had surgery yet. I have been watching and researching So Cal's DE Morgan Briesland. I did not focus on him because my previous mocks did not allow for OLB in second where Brisland should land. 6'2" 250 a junior transfer he had 17.5 TFL and 11.5 sacks. 53 total tackles and 4 pass deflections with one forced fumble. I want to watch at combine to see if he can make transfer to OLB. He has been named as one of six for Ted Hendricks award with winner announced Dec 5th. Most of you remember USC's Nick Perry (Packers) as a finalist and his replacement was Brisland.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

NT could use an upgrade , but I think its far from the only position of need .... OG , RT , CB , ILB and WR are all a higher priority pending Cody is resigned.

Along the OL we have to consider the pending rules changes .... and the fact that this team averages less than 4 ypc despite leading the league in attempts.
Butler probably wont be retained , Harris is on a 1 year deal and Newton has not impressed in run blocking (Been real solid in pass protection).
I was actually impressed with Gardner yesterday when he replaced Brown for a few plays in comparison to what he looked like in preseason. Possible that he looked so bad because of the quality of players along that second unit with him.
Swing tackle and RT could be huge questionmarks going into next season.

CB - McCain and Ball will be a FA's , Harris and Carmichael played "decent" when pressed into action but the depth at the position has to be a priority. Just look at the second half of yesterdays game and see that the #5 & 6 CB's were forced into action for a reminder. To quote Rick Smith - "You can never have enough CB's."

ILB - Cushing , James and Dobbins have been hurt in recent weeks forcing the signing of a street FA in Ruud into the starting lineup along with Sharpton who has had a history of injury himself. James is also on a one year deal.

WR - This bunch is ... I just dont know what to think of them. Maybe its Schaub , maybe its Kubiak , maybe its them .... but there is a lack of a vertical threat to this offense.
I want to believe that one of Martin , Posey or Jean can be that guy .... but they havent shown it yet. They have 4 games + the playoff to get off my sh!t list.

There are other needs too .... but each of those listed above I think is more pressing than NT as long as Cody is resigned and you could make an arguement for each getting first or second round consideration.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

NT dire, others a bit less. I thing except for Myers we would be ok if blocking rule changes as all are strong id not huge like Newton,Brown and Brooks. I think many underestimate Wade Smith's strength. The per carry avg is effected by new guys I am thinking + Foster huge attempts. Hopefully Tate and more of Forsett as we saw against Tenn will increase. Butler gone but I think Harris will be back as I think ZBS better on his back. Newton is basically in his rookie year so we need to give him same leeway as Brown got. I'll probably have at least one Olineman in my final mock but 3rd or later. You are on target with Gardner also as I too was impressed. He just doesn't get many reps behind Brown. I actually believe Butler would have looked better as LT next to Smith than RT next to whoever lined up at RG early this year. If Smith agrees, Rashad could be back.

Not sure Ball will get any more than Texans & might be back. Joseph and KJ with Harris replacing McCain. Carmichael backing up J JO. I think a corner will be drafted but late. Quin in a pinch could move & I wonder if Keyaron Fox could play safety/LB as Quin has done? I think Smith will bring in a couple UDFA and street guys also.

ILB was a dire need for me but James, Dobbing and Sharpton (especially this guy) have played well over all. Injuries happen but if Smith can find a Ruud, why limit him next year? I am locked into Andrew Jackson in 3rd.

Definitely understand your concerns but when was the last consistent deep threat we had? Walter and AJ can usually off Schaub's hide the rock that he does so well. Weakest link imo is Posey simply because he cannot get on field. Hopefully, he is soaking it up in practise cuase he ain't going anywhere. AFter round two I do not see any college player beating out AJ/Walter/Jean/Martin or Posey. I could see a project late who is a solid return in case Martin is hurt. Throw OD in mix...no worries, mate!

Jean has what it takes to eventually replace AJ & could move to other side starter '13. I honestly thought it was AJ that scored that TD despite seeing 18. The people I was watching game with thought I was being sarcastic yelling go AJ! Jean reminds me a lot of Andre.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

Beside NT and CB positions, I would like for the Texans to draft tall DE that may able to start in a few years from now if not immediate. Also, RT and S. RT, I would like for the Texans to draft by 3rd rd where talented RT may still be available. What do you think?

Go Texans!!!

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

My random thought at 11-1

*I agree with BB, NT in the 1st unless one of the really good WR falls to us and that's highly unlikely. I like Nix but think he's gone before our pick. I also like Kawann Short and Sylvester Williams in the late 1st round, both have great size for the position and athleticism/agility you don't see in a big man often. I like Jesse Williams, and I know he's listed as a 1st round prospect but I think he lacks lateral agility and falls to the mid 2nd round.
*WR is our other big need, I like Martin in the slot and I think he's here for a long time, Jean and Posey haven't shown much of anything and should be fighting for a roster spot next season. AJ and Walter are getting older and WR is a big need, 1st - 3rd round. I really like Quinton Patton in the 2nd or 3rd round, though this seems to be a deep year at WR but lacking the elite talent at the top.
*ILB, James started off the season slow but has been playing well since mid season, Dobbins plays the run well and can lay the big hit, Sharpton has surprised me and played better than I expected, and Ruud played well Sunday but I need to see more from him. I think this is a testament to Wade and his assistants. A younger, cheaper, thumper in the middle would be nice but it's still usually a 2 down position so a mid round pick. I think one of either James, Dobbins, or Sharpton are gone next year along with Ruud.
*CB, I think we lose McCain to FA and his recent foot injury might be a blessing as it give Harris much needed playing time to develop and us time to assess him. Roc looks decent as well and is good depth. If one of the top CB's (Banks) falls to us in the 1st then grab him but that's highly unlikely so go with mid round pick. I like Johnny Adams from Mich. St..
*O-line, I'm gonna stick with Newton at RT for now, he's played well but not great and like any new guy needs time to develop. I think we could use a new swing tackle in the draft unless Kubiak and Co. are impressed with either Harris or Gardner enough to keep them around at the position, but I think one of them is gone next year. I would like at least 1 O-lineman in the 2nd or 3rd round, an OT that can play OT and OG. Dallas Thomas or Ricky Wagner would be nice, maybe Xavier Nixon. A later round OG would be nice as well to add depth.
*OLB, I'd really like to keep Barwin but am slowly beginning to think like others that he may be gone in FA and we then take a mid-late round OLB for depth. This might be thinking outside the box but I'd sure like to see Wade move Reed to WILB, next to Cushing, and keep Barwin at SOLB and Mercilus at WOLB. I think Reed could handle the position change and then we'd draft a mid round OLB instead of ILB.

Also with all the success we've had it's going to be hard to keep all our assistant coaches, I sure hope we can.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

check out Kapron Lewis-Moore ND 6'4" 302. Little publicity but always after the ball. I have him in 6th but may climb; however do not see DE as high round need as Crick is looking pretty good. Should take over for Smith in '14.

Convince me Newton is not our starter for future. I don't see Harris playing left tackle and probably will not get much in free agency. I think we can keep him. Gardner did ok against Tenn when Brown went out injured. I have Rick Wagner in 4th and on current mock I'm working on have Arkansas' Alvin Bailey who switches between LG & RG every game.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

Thanks for info badboy. As you know, I don't much follow NCAA football. Your Amigos always amazes me with all the prospects evaluation. It always helps me understand better about prospects that I am not aware of.

DE position, Although Crick is looking pretty good, we ain't sure if Antonio sticks around with the Texans and would like to have good depth if not starter at the position. I want tall and long guy that able to swatted of passes like Watt(I know, not Watt level but capable of doing some of that duty with good motor to pressure QB). I am kind intrigued by SMU's German guy. Hunt?

RT position, Newton looks good but still right side seems weaker than last year which concerns me. I would like to see quality depth if not starter type material. Is there any good RT mid rd prospects that fits our scheme out there?

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

Thanks for your compliments and one of the reasons Beerlover, Rmartin65 and I do the mocks. Of course, we would probably just exchange info if it was just the three of us lol. We are open to PMs if you want any questions answered.

Antonio Smith 6'4" 280 last contract year is 2013 @ $6 million. He turns 32 next Oct but is not playing like an old man. I would not be stunned to see him extended to lower his cap hit for '13 (similar to deal AJ accepted) and keep him around as the defensive "enforcer" he is. My plan is to bring in a Nose Tackle to start in place of Cody. I also want to see what PS Keith Browner 6'4" 276 24 YOA brings as a DE.

Smith/Crick/Lewis-Moore/Browner should be sufficient playing opposite Watt (Crick relieves Watt); allowing a high draft pick to go elsewhere.

I am not a Margus Hunt fan but to be honest have watched little of him or SMU. What makes Watt so effective is he leaves his feet and knows the passing zones.

Right side of Oline is getting better as Ben Jones has settled in at RG. Remember, Newton only had 17 snaps last year and this is basically his rookie year. Harris could end up being a tremendous addition for Texans. Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) is reducing the number of FAs moving to new teams and Ryan's salary is $700,000. I think 2-3million, playing for a SB contender in a zone blocking system that is easier on his back injuries + same he basically played in @ Denver should encourage him to remain. 6'5" 300 he turns 28 in March. Great skills out of college.

I am looking at OG Alvin Bailey Arkansas in third if our pick is not used in trade up. What is interesting is he switches during the game between LG and RG. He is projected to be a second round pick in '14 if he remains in school. I think he comes out now after debacle Arkansas went thru.

In 4th, I have Rick Wagner a red shirt senior Wisconsin 6'6" 318 RT but played LT in 2011. His lateral movement needs improvement but in the two years I have watched him he keeps improving. I would allow him and Gardner to battle. * Of interest is Wisconsin Offensive Coordinator was fired.

Hope this is helpful.

Steve

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

i'm still not seeing nose tackle unless it's a BPA. cody is more than adequate, as well as being cheap. mitchell could certainly be upgraded, but is respectable depth. dont get me wrong, if BPA is a heavy with the adjective "tenacious" in his scouting report, i'm all for it ... but i hardly see NT as a need. with 2 all-pro's beside him, i'd hate to tie up more money on the line (or lose smith) when we already have "good" at the position. also, and this is a big one, nose tackle is the position with the lowest play total (brice mccain has more defensive snaps than cody and mitchell combined). edit: we're #2 in run defense and have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown this season ... i'm actually curious as to why NT would be so high on some lists.

wide receiver and right tackle are my main focuses still. jones has flashed great (and poor) play, and brooks is going to be absolutely beastly if he learns the technique and nuances of the position. as it stands now he obliterates his man ... when he knows which man to obliterate. those two could very well be our guards for the next 10 years (i see jones sliding to the left side). newton i dont see the potential in, and after a brief but impressive showing from gardner, i'm not sure newton will hold the swing tackle position. right tackle is the hole on our offensive line, and one that should probably be addressed in the first 3 picks. harris is our current ephraim salaam, only here because noone else is able to play the position.

wide receiver is pretty obvious. jean and posey are simply potential, most likely remaining unrealized. walter is exceptional, expendable depth. andre is still andre, but a monster 2 weeks doesnt turn back the clock. it's way past time to get the next big thing. i dont mean to trade up for julio jones, but much like atlanta it's time we added the big second receiver.

inside linebacker. cushing is all-pro ... everyone else is depth. i'm not a fan of james, sharpton flashes potential but cant stay healthy, dobbins is strictly a thumper, and ruud is above average filler. we still need a starter here, preferably a 3 down player. i would use a 1st or second here if there was a standout, and most likely double up hoping one is a homerun. this is still THE big hole on defense - our lack of a complete nickel package.

i think wade really likes his OLB's, and i see barwin being signed relatively cheap. offensive line outside of right tackle is great, receivers are deep, tightend is a bpa addition, quarterback is great, runningback is great, DE's are great, safeties are great, corners are great. those 3 positions are where i see our only holes being (RT, WR, ILB), though certainly there are spots that could potentially be upgraded or improved with depth.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

Cody will be 30 Jan 22nd and has ongoing back problems. Nose takes a tremendous beating and why many DTs do not want to play it. While we do see problems when he is out he is still average at best. It just shows how weak the depth is and Mitchell is not very good; probably should be a DE as he was drafted. If you do not think Nose is a dire need please explain the runs right through our middle. Quin has even been moved to a hybrid LB at times to help shut down the run. FYI, Antonio Smith is under contract thru 2013 @ $6m.

Your comments about right tackle are just not substantiated by facts imo. I think the tackles main job is to keep QB on his feet and blocking for the back; both are done well by Newton and Harris. Running game to right averages over 4 yds per carry and Newton has allowed 3 sacks. He compares very favorable to Duane Brown in his same year. I am ok with the comparison of Harris to Salaam except that Harris is only 27 and recovering from back injury. He gets better every game and ceiling much higher than Salaam was with Texans.

WR: as Posey has very limited actual snaps you nor I can evaluated positive or negative future. I know that a 3rd was spent on him so don't see him going anywhere. Jean is puzzling but has size/speed of Andre and will get a raise in'13 to $555,000 so he gets one more season. Agree with you on Walter but our second big receiver is TE Owen Daniels who is on pace to flirt with 900. Having said this, if Terrance Williams is there in our first, I'll close my eyes and run to podium.

Enjoy the back and forth! :handshake:

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

that wasnt my most sober post, thanks for not blasting me for it lol. from what i've seen most of those big runs through the middle come against our nickel and dime packages. our base and heavy sets have been good or great at stopping the run and a reason we're #2 overall against the run. that's why i think the additional ILB is more of a need than DT, replacing quin in the box while also being a better matchup inside against bigger tightends. if a nose is there and BPA, cody can most definitely be upgraded, you're correct that he is average ... my contention is that we're fine with average because of today's game and how little impact the nose has compared with other positions. that's especially so if the saved money allows us to resign smith who is again having a fantastic season.

you're right about the line, i have no facts, that's just my personal evaluation. i do see some potential from newton, not so much from harris, but not enough that i'd want either to be a long term answer. duane brown was extremely talented at that point in his career, he was just raw - newton doesnt have near the talent that i can see. at guard i see a ton of potential in both jones and brooks. brooks has the high ceiling, but is still extremely raw and may not reach that potential, where as jones has already taken over the starting job and is getting better every week. wade smith has another year on his contract, though his play has dropped off this season, so guard is a position i feel we're stable at for at least another year.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

Hey, I seldom blast anyone..not my style and enjoy the debate. I too think we are strong at OG but I still toy with adding Alvin Bailey if we do not use our 3rd to trade up. I can see Amerson CB there in second round where a trade with San Francisco will be. Caldwell is gone imo and Brooks should replace Smith in '14. I was hoping Jones would replace Myers in 2014 to save that $11m. Brown/Brooks/Jones/Bailey/Newton. OLB is tripping me as I do expect Barwin to go.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

Where are you getting that number? I see him at $2 million of prorated signing bonus which is cap space either way (plus the prorated $2 mil for 2015 if you cut him) and $5 mil in base salary in 2014. The rest of his guaranteed money were his 2012 and 2013 salaries. Without using a June 1st cut getting rid of Myers for 2014 saves $1 mil in cap space.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

$25m with 14 guaranteed. $8m bonus +$2.5m this year + 3.5m '13: guarantee complete. 2014 salary $5m + 2015 salary $6m = $11m saved in actual money. The $2m prorated bonus moved to 2014 will still effect cap that year by $4m. He is FA in 2016. He signed a four year extension in March 2011.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

It isn't accurate to include money from 2015. More accurately stated it would be if they cut him in 2014 they save $1 mil in cap or if they cut him in 2015 they save $4 mil in cap. Cap space is a yearly rather than aggregate analysis. And new money is irrelevant. Even looking at the two combined the cap savings if released after the 2013 season is $7 mil.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

At no point did Scooter or I mention salary cap in our last two exchanges. My point stands that Myers '14 salary of $5m & '15 of $6m if cut would be a savings. The bonus has been paid. You are correct that the $4m prorated would effect the cap in '14 as I said in my first response to you. I spoke of cash savings. You are speaking of salary cap.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

Well why are you discussing cash savings? The cap is what matters in building a team. Personnel discussions are almost universally discussed in terms of cap ramifications.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

If you look at year 2014 and have eliminated $6m base that would be gone from that year's cap. Often player salaries are discussed and many fans want to know what that annual amount is. I mentioned cash savings because I wanted to. If I had wanted to mention salary cap hit or savings I would have said or it would have been implied from the flow of the thread conversation.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

I don't think anybody who discusses football as a hobby cares if cutting a guy saves $11m if less than half of that savings is actually applied to the one limiting factor to your roster besides the 53 man limit (ie, the salary cap). I find it pretty disingenuous to say "Cutting Chris Myers would save us $11m" without adding in the caveat that only $4-$6m of that would actually be applied to the cap.

I believe in the actual business model that the Texans have built and that it makes plenty enough money to pay guys like Chris Myers and Duane Brown extra money outside of the Salary Cap. The complaint I remember most hearing when we were a terrible franchise was that Bob was all about the money and didn't care if the Texans won. The Texans are a very slick advertisement and marketing machine, especially now that they are winning games, and any extra savings outside of the salary cap are extraneous at best.

Re: 11-1 thoughts
 

One last time and then I'm moving on... there will be a cash savings of $11m. That does not change. IF you want to talk cap and I was not, looking at only 2014 $5m base will be saved and the remaining $4m prorated bonus is moved to 2014. Salary cap purposes only there is a $1m savings. Year 2015, Myers is gone and Texans do not pay his salary nor is there a cap hit from either that base of $6m or the $2m hit that was absorbed in 2014. There would be no cap saving of bonus but the based of $6m is not there to effect cap as Myers gone. That is a total of $7m total cap savings; $1m in '14 & $6m '15. You cannot just ignore 2015. I don't know where you get less than half unless you are talking about 2014 only.

If Myers remains on roster his base counts against cap each year so if he leaves that frees that amount. Again, I was talking salary & if that disappoints...

I have no idea what you are talking about when you say Texans "make plenty of money to pay Myers and Duane Brown extra money outside of the cap".