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-   -   2012 Playoff Picture (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=95643)

brakos82 10-22-2012 01:36 PM

2012 Playoff Picture
 
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 7

Division Leaders:

Texans (6-1)... HFA 54%... Top-2 69%... Division 82%... Playoffs 95%.
Ravens (5-2)... HFA 17%... Top-2 41%... Division 67%... Playoffs 80%.
Broncos (3-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 25%... Division 60%... Playoffs 72%.
Patriots (4-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 20%... Division 45%... Playoffs 61%.

Wild-Cards:

Chargers (3-3) (Even with DEN)... HFA 4%... Top-2 11%... Division 26%... Playoffs 48%.
Steelers (3-3) (1.5 behind BAL)... HFA 2%... Top-2 8%... Division 26%... Playoffs 44%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Dolphins (3-3) (0.5 behind NE)... HFA 2%... Top-2 8%... Division 25%... Playoffs 40%.
NY Jets (3-4) (1 behind NE)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 20%... Playoffs 33%.
Titans (3-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 8%... Playoffs 31%.
Colts (3-3) (2.5 behind HOU)... HFA 2%... Top-2 5%... Division 9%... Playoffs 28%.
Raiders (2-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 8%... Playoffs 24%.
Bills (3-4) (1 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 19%.
Bengals (3-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 15%.

All-but-eliminated:

Chiefs (1-5) Playoffs: 6%.
Jaguars (1-5) Playoffs: 4%.
Browns (1-6) Playoffs: 2%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 7 (without MNF)

Division Leaders:

Falcons (6-0)... HFA 60%... Top-2 77%... Division 98%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (4-1)... HFA 12%... Top-2 28%... Division 40%... Playoffs 65%.
49ers (5-2)... HFA 7%... Top-2 25%... Division 57%... Playoffs 70%.
Giants (5-2)... HFA 5%... Top-2 14%... Division 33%... Playoffs 55%.

Wild-Cards:

Vikings (5-2) (Even with CHI)... HFA 6%... Top-2 18%... Division 31%... Playoffs 56%.
Packers (4-3) (1 behind CHI)... HFA 2%... Top-2 9%... Division 23%... Playoffs 48%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cowboys (3-3) (1.5 behind NYG)... HFA 2%... Top-2 7%... Division 30%... Playoffs 43%.
Seahawks (4-3) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 6%... Division 16%... Playoffs 38%.
Eagles (3-3) (1.5 behind NYG)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 22%... Playoffs 33%.
Cardinals (4-3) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 17%... Playoffs 30%.
Redskins (3-4) (2 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 14%... Playoffs 26%.
Rams (3-4) (2 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 9%... Playoffs 17%.
Lions (2-3) (2 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 5%... Playoffs 15%.

All-but-eliminated:

Saints (2-4) Playoffs: 2%.
Buccs (2-4) Playoffs: 2%.
Panthers (1-5) Playoffs: 1%.

The Pencil Neck 10-22-2012 03:08 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Great stuff. Interesting picture.

I can't get my head around counting the Saints out this early in the season.

jaayteetx 10-22-2012 03:20 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck (Post 2043026)
Great stuff. Interesting picture.

I can't get my head around counting the Saints out this early in the season.

I can! Return of the Aints! Annoying fans.

Playoffs 10-22-2012 04:48 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Here's a Playoffs Scenario Generator. You can choose different ways to value teams from the dropdown menu in lower right corner. It's limited in choices, but fun to play around with...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Norg 10-23-2012 01:59 AM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
hopefully we get the number 1 seed that way we might take on a WC team in the div round if one makes it like the bengles or colts

wouldnt that be crazy if we played the colts in the Div round a AFC South showdown

SCOTTexans 10-23-2012 04:22 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Playoffs (Post 2043073)
Here's a Playoffs Scenario Generator. You can choose different ways to value teams from the dropdown menu in lower right corner. It's limited in choices, but fun to play around with...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Every scenario in the set wins by drop down has the Texans with the #1 or #2 seed....

except for the Yahoo team ranker which has use going 6-10 for this yr.... What the??? :bat:

TexanSam 10-23-2012 04:39 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SCOTTexans (Post 2043855)
Every scenario in the set wins by drop down has the Texans with the #1 or #2 seed....

except for the Yahoo team ranker which has use going 6-10 for this yr.... What the??? :bat:

Who made the Yahoo team ranker? Using that the AFC seeds are 1)Bills 2)Bengals 3)Colts 4)Denver 5)Browns 6)Dolphins

WTF?

And why does it start in Week 13?

brakos82 10-23-2012 04:47 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TexanSam (Post 2043867)
Who made the Yahoo team ranker? Using that the AFC seeds are 1)Bills 2)Bengals 3)Colts 4)Denver 5)Browns 6)Dolphins

WTF?

And why does it start in Week 13?

I'm guessing they got the W-L predictions mixed up. Yahoo's full of yahoos. :kitten:

Norg 10-25-2012 06:32 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
messin around with it Very High chance we play San deigo in the div round

even higher chance we will see NE in either the Div round or AFC Champ game either way i think we will see NE

best case is if Miami ballz out and we see them in the div round also if denver balls out we will be seeing Denver in the AFC champ game


hopefully everything will be at home tho Crosses fingers

isnt it kinda funny tho

Miami
Denver
Ravens

3 teams we might see again we blew all of them out ..???? they will be harder next time around if we play them again

brakos82 10-29-2012 11:52 AM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 8

Division Leaders:

Texans (6-1)... HFA 56%... Top-2 72%... Division 85%... Playoffs 96%.
Ravens (5-2)... HFA 15%... Top-2 38%... Division 63%... Playoffs 79%.
Patriots (5-3)... HFA 10%... Top-2 24%... Division 54%... Playoffs 70%.
Broncos (4-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 26%... Division 69%... Playoffs 80%.

Wild-Cards:

Dolphins (4-3) (0.5 behind NE)... HFA 3%... Top-2 13%... Division 33%... Playoffs 53%.
Steelers (4-3) (1 behind BAL)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 32%... Playoffs 51%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Colts (4-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 4%... Top-2 8%... Division 13%... Playoffs 42%.
Raiders (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 16%... Playoffs 34%.
Chargers (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 12%... Playoffs 28%.
NY Jets (3-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 7%... Playoffs 18%.
Bills (3-4) (1.5 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 15%.
Bengals (3-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 15%.
Titans (3-5) (3 behind HOU)... Top-2 <1%... Division 2%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Browns (2-6) Playoffs: 3%.
Jaguars (1-5) Playoffs: 2%.
Chiefs (1-5) Playoffs: 1%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 8 (without MNF)

Division Leaders:

Falcons (7-0)... HFA 71%... Top-2 88%... Division 99%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (6-1)... HFA 12%... Top-2 36%... Division 55%... Playoffs 79%.
Giants (6-2)... HFA 7%... Top-2 23%... Division 56%... Playoffs 77%.
49ers (5-2)... HFA 6%... Top-2 27%... Division 66%... Playoffs 77%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (5-3) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 25%... Playoffs 56%.
Vikings (5-3) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA 1%... Top-2 6%... Division 17%... Playoffs 37%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cardinals (4-3) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 19%... Playoffs 34%.
Eagles (3-4) (2.5 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 19%... Playoffs 32%.
Cowboys (3-4) (2.5 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 15%... Playoffs 30%.
Seahawks (4-4) (1.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 27%.
Redskins (3-5) (3 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 18%.
Lions (2-3) (2 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 15%.
Rams (3-5) (2.5 behind SF)... Top-2 <1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 11%.

All-but-eliminated:

Buccs (3-4) Playoffs: 7%.
Saints (2-5) Playoffs: 1%.
Panthers (1-6) Playoffs: <1%.

TexanSam 10-29-2012 12:00 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Colts/Dolphins game next week is going to be interesting

brakos82 10-29-2012 01:57 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TexanSam (Post 2046903)
Colts/Dolphins game next week is going to be interesting

Yeah, 20% swing in playoff chances for both teams.

Tailgate 10-29-2012 08:47 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
96% chance of making the playoffs. Sweeeeeeet.

BullBlitz 10-29-2012 08:59 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Thanks for the post.

Cerberus 10-31-2012 09:57 AM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by brakos82 (Post 2046898)
AFC Playoff Picture - after week 8

Division Leaders:

Texans (6-1)... HFA 56%... Top-2 72%... Division 85%... Playoffs 96%.
Ravens (5-2)... HFA 15%... Top-2 38%... Division 63%... Playoffs 79%.
Patriots (5-3)... HFA 10%... Top-2 24%... Division 54%... Playoffs 70%.
Broncos (4-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 26%... Division 69%... Playoffs 80%.

Wild-Cards:

Dolphins (4-3) (0.5 behind NE)... HFA 3%... Top-2 13%... Division 33%... Playoffs 53%.
Steelers (4-3) (1 behind BAL)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 32%... Playoffs 51%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Colts (4-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 4%... Top-2 8%... Division 13%... Playoffs 42%.
Raiders (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 16%... Playoffs 34%.
Chargers (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 12%... Playoffs 28%.
NY Jets (3-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 7%... Playoffs 18%.
Bills (3-4) (1.5 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 15%.
Bengals (3-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 15%.
Titans (3-5) (3 behind HOU)... Top-2 <1%... Division 2%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Browns (2-6) Playoffs: 3%.
Jaguars (1-5) Playoffs: 2%.
Chiefs (1-5) Playoffs: 1%.

Where are you getting this information? I find it interesting. Is it based on Vegas odds-makers take on things, or is it computer generated? Just curious.

brakos82 10-31-2012 11:18 AM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cerberus (Post 2047938)
Where are you getting this information? I find it interesting. Is it based on Vegas odds-makers take on things, or is it computer generated? Just curious.

Computer-generated. Mostly based on W-L and tiebreakers, but SOS is also a factor as well.

brakos82 11-05-2012 05:41 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 9

Division Leaders:

Texans (7-1)... HFA 57%... Top-2 73%... Division 86%... Playoffs 98%.*
Ravens (6-2)... HFA 16%... Top-2 41%... Division 62%... Playoffs 86%.
Broncos (5-3)... HFA 9%... Top-2 34%... Division 86%... Playoffs 91%.**
Patriots (5-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 20%... Division 63%... Playoffs 72%.

Wild-Cards:

Steelers (5-3) (1 behind BAL)... HFA 4%... Top-2 16%... Division 37%... Playoffs 71%.
Colts (5-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 5%... Top-2 10%... Division 15%... Playoffs 55%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Dolphins (4-4) (1 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 3%... Division 24%... Playoffs 38%.
Chargers (4-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 28%.
NY Jets (3-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 19%.
Raiders (3-5) (2 behind DEN)... Top-2 <1%... Division 5%... Playoffs 17%.
Bills (3-5) (1.5 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 5%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Bengals (3-5) Playoffs: 6%.
Titans (3-6) Playoffs: 5%.
Browns (2-6) Playoffs: <1%.
Chiefs (1-7) Playoffs: <1%.
Jaguars (1-7) Playoffs: <1%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 9 (without MNF)

Division Leaders:

Falcons (8-0)... HFA 75%... Top-2 92%... Division 99%... Playoffs >99%.
Bears (7-1)... HFA 14%... Top-2 44%... Division 63%... Playoffs 90%.
49ers (6-2)... HFA 7%... Top-2 38%... Division 84%... Playoffs 90%.
Giants (6-3)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 37%... Playoffs 67%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (6-3) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA 2%... Top-2 11%... Division 27%... Playoffs 69%.
Seahawks (5-4) (1.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 41%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Eagles (3-4) (2 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 27%... Playoffs 35%.
Cowboys (3-5) (2.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 22%... Playoffs 33%.**
Vikings (5-4) (2.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 21%.*
Lions (4-4) (3 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 19%.*
Buccs (4-4) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 11%.

All-but-eliminated:

Rams (3-5) Playoffs: 9%.
Cardinals (4-5) Playoffs: 8%.
Redskins (3-6) Playoffs: 5%.
Panthers (2-6) Playoffs: 1%.
Saints (2-5) Playoffs: 1%.

brakos82 11-12-2012 11:21 AM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Monday Night game tonight

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 10

Division Leaders:

Texans (8-1)... HFA 72%... Top-2 85%... Division 91%... Playoffs >99%.
Ravens (7-2)... HFA 11%... Top-2 45%... Division 70%... Playoffs 93%.*
Patriots (6-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 20%... Division 83%... Playoffs 87%.
Broncos (6-3)... HFA 5%... Top-2 36%... Division 95%... Playoffs 97%.


Wild-Cards:

Steelers (5-3) (1.5 behind BAL)... HFA 1%... Top-2 10%... Division 31%... Playoffs 72%.#
Colts (6-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 3%... Top-2 6%... Division 9%... Playoffs 65%.*

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Chargers (4-5) (2 behind DEN)... Top-2 <1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 19%.
Dolphins (4-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 13%... Playoffs 18%.
Titans (4-6) (4.5 behind HOU)... Division <1%... Playoffs 12%.
Bengals (4-5) (3 behind BAL)... Division 1%... Playoffs 11%.
NY Jets (3-6) (3 behind NE)... Division 3%... Playoffs 10%.

All-but-eliminated:

Raiders (3-5) Playoffs: 8%.**
Bills (3-5) Playoffs: 8%.
Browns (2-7) Playoffs: <1%.
Chiefs (1-7) Playoffs: <1%.#
Jaguars (1-8) Playoffs: <1%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 10

Division Leaders:

Falcons (8-1)... HFA 64%... Top-2 87%... Division 96%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (7-2)... HFA 18%... Top-2 40%... Division 53%... Playoffs 84%.
49ers (6-2-1)... HFA 8%... Top-2 31%... Division 67%... Playoffs 83%.
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 6%... Division 38%... Playoffs 55%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (6-3) (1 behind CHI)... HFA 7%... Top-2 21%... Division 35%... Playoffs 72%.
Seahawks (6-4) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 8%... Division 26%... Playoffs 55%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cowboys (4-5) (1.5 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 47%... Playoffs 53%.**
Vikings (6-4) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 26%.
Buccs (5-4) (3 behind ATL)... Top 2 1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 19%.
Redskins (3-6) (2.5 behind NYG)... Divsion 8%... Playoffs 10%.
Saints (4-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 10%.

All-but-eliminated:

Rams (3-5-1) Playoffs: 9%.
Cardinals (4-5) Playoffs: 8%.
Lions (4-4) Playoffs: 8%.*
Eagles (3-5) Playoffs: 7%.
Panthers (2-6) Playoffs: <1%.

Fili 11-12-2012 06:47 PM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Quote:

Ravens (7-2)... HFA 11%... Top-2 45%... Division 70%... Playoffs 93%.*
Hardest remaining schedule in the conference. I guess that might tie up a first round bye.

TexanSam 11-13-2012 08:37 AM

Re: 2012 Playoff Picture
 
Broncos vs Colts in the wild card round would be very interesting.


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