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-   -   Is there REALLY a clear #1 pick? (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6037)

J-Man 01-20-2005 01:01 PM

Is there REALLY a clear #1 pick?
 
Just wanted to throw this one in the air for discussion. With many of the top Jr's electing to stay in school for one more year (ie. Leinert, Brooks, Ferguson, Ngata, and I believe Rod Wright among others) I think there is serious question as to who the top guys really are.

Let me clarify this a bit...I think we can all make a pretty solid list of the top 20-30 prospects that we can agree on, but when you start getting down to the level of Top 5 and Top 10 there are wildly varying views from some smart folks as to who those guys are.

My impression from the boards is that most of us believe that Leinert and Ferguson would have clearly been Top 5 picks. Chris Mortensen on ESPN Radio made a pretty intresting comment this morning that there maybe several of the top 10 teams that are willing to trade down based on the relative value of the players that will be available in the this years draft. Much of this seems to be a reflection of the elite underclassmen who are electing to return to college. I know there are several of us that like to take shots at Kiper a bit (myself included) but he does cover the draft and scouting for a living and has been at it for a while. His scouting reports are pretty accurate...mock drafts not so much...and he has made very similar comments to Mortensen in the last week or so.

Most years you can clearly define the #1 pick in the draft and within a fairly high degree of accuracy the Top 5. I have seen 5 different #1 picks and numerous different Top 5 lists this past week which led me ask the question...Is there really a #1 this year and who is it? I understand that the question is somewhat relative based on the team needs but I was wondering what folks on the boards thought?

Blake 01-20-2005 01:07 PM

Nope. There is no Eli Manning, or Orlando Pace, or Mike Vick. No QB, or RB, or WR, or CB, or anybody, made a case for #1.

The only reason Rodgers and Smith are there, is because QB is such a big need.

infantrycak 01-20-2005 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J-Man
Chris Mortensen on ESPN Radio made a pretty intresting comment this morning that there maybe several of the top 10 teams that are willing to trade down based on the relative value of the players that will be available in the this years draft.

Something else may turn out interesting this year and may encourage attempts to trade down. There were several salaries in the top 7 picks last year that were big jumps over prior years because of the perceived superstar quality of Winslow, Gallery, etc. May be wrong, but there may have even been one contract that jumped the pick above in value. I wonder if teams are going to be reluctant to match those contracts much less raise them and whether there are going to be some even more prolonged hold-outs.

astrofan 01-20-2005 03:59 PM

if I had to label a player in the draft the clear #1 I guess it would have to be Alex Smith (wearing #11 being the deal maker)

J-Man 01-21-2005 02:24 PM

Intresting point, Cak...

I think you may see some fairly high initial asking prices for the top 5 to 10 picks that will be based on the picks from last year (which is pretty standard procedure).

I also think that maybe one of the fallouts of this past years blockbuster draft deal may effect the holdout threat for some of the top picks. I think the Phillip Rivers factor could lower the risk of serious hold outs. Rivers held out for something like $1mil in a $45mil contract then ended up riding the pine which breaths new life into Drew Brees. Now Rivers has no clear idea of what his future is going to be with the Chargers.

No matter how you slice it I think that there will be more than a few guys in the 1st round getting paid more than they are worth.

THE_HONKEY_TONK_KID 01-23-2005 04:48 PM

No, there is no clear cut #1. There are a lot of great players early, but not one of them deserves to be #1. You talk about Aaron Rogers or Alex Smith being #1, if they were in last years draft they probably would have been taken somewhere between picks #15-25. Thats how weak this draft is. Also, the best players in this draft are all playing the same positions. One can make an argument that Cedric Benson is the best player available, but when you got Williams and Brown behind him, his stock drops. Same thing with CBs. Adam Jones and Rolle are to very good CBs. But with Rogers, Jackson, and Henderson (kid from Clemson, I think thats his name) behind him, again there stock drops. I think that is also a problem in this draft.

threetoedpete 01-24-2005 12:45 AM

No. I believe that Smith fits the WCO better than the guy from Cal. Rodgers. But aren't they still in cap Hell ? You never know some of them may be HOFers, but I don't see them. I see no one worth spending future picks on to move up to go get. I see guys who are nice players and with hard work will work themselves into the line up and be very good blue chip players even all pro guys. I think Mike Willams has the chance to be a AJ clone or better. Seth Payne is a very good player. But he's not an HOFer. I see a lot of guys like Payne in this draft. Blue Collar guys. The corners and a few of the DB's look very good. I see no Dion Sanders in their though. The two QBs
& 2 Wide recievers look good but you start looking for dominate lineman & LB's and they just aren't there this year. JMHO.

Agree with the kid. I don't know if it's a problem or not, but it will be interesting to see how the Texans addrees their needs on the two lines this year. I'm assuming of course everyone agrees that the two pressing needs are pass protection and QB pressures from the front seven. I'm glad I don't have to make the decidsion on the O-line this year. That one's gonna be a bear.

Hervoyel 01-24-2005 01:01 PM

Makes you wonder if a draft could be so weak that the price of trading up might flip-flop. In a situation where nobody wanted to give that kind of money for the top 5-10 players could things ever get to a point where a team with the number one pick in the draft actually gives the spot up pick-for-pick or even pays a price to trade down?

Just a hypothetical question really, I can't imagine it ever getting to that point because someone is always ready to get excited over a potential player. Right now nobody is seeing anything but give it a couple of months. We'll get our news/numbers from the combine and start studying stats/highlights and then we'll all start to fall in love with some player who would be perfect for the ______________ (insert name of favorite team here).

I swear I love the draft just this [...] much less than football season itself.

Blake 01-24-2005 01:11 PM

I dont think it will flip flop. But IMO there will be alot less trades than last years trade-fest. But you will still pay an arm and a leg to move up.

edo783 01-24-2005 01:51 PM

The cost of moving up should be less this year due to a percieved lack of quality. How much less.......TBD. Conversly, you will likely get less to trade down.

D-ReK 01-24-2005 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edo783
The cost of moving up should be less this year due to a percieved lack of quality. How much less.......TBD. Conversly, you will likely get less to trade down.

Agreed...I think in this draft, we could move up 5 or 6 spots without giving up our second...If a team wants to trade down bad enough, we could get a steal...

Vinny 01-24-2005 02:07 PM

No way we can move to the 8th slot by just giving up chump picks.

Nawzer 01-24-2005 02:53 PM

Mike Berman on fox 26 said last night that if things broke right Cedric Benson might be the no. 1 pick this draft. I doubt that will happen seriously, but since there is no clear cut no. 1 someone may emerge from a terrific combine effort.

THE_HONKEY_TONK_KID 01-25-2005 09:30 PM

Since when did Mark Berman become Mel Kiper :rofl:

I agree with Vinny, moving up isn't going to cost you just a 5th rounder, it will cost you a pretty penny. But I think we will see a lot of teams trying to trade down, say like the 49ers, Dolphins, etc., but they won't find anybody to move up.

astrofan 01-30-2005 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by threetoedpete
Seth Payne is a very good player. But he's not an HOFer. I see a lot of guys like Payne in this draft. Blue Collar guys.

I'll take the Blue Collar guys any day
motor&heart>>>mouth&hype

Honoring Earl 34 01-30-2005 08:24 PM

:howdy: Mel Kipers a parrot . Did you hear him and Craig James going at it . I think it was about Darren Sproles . The first overall pick for me would be the one who signed a deal before the draft . I'd tell Smith , Rogers ,or whoever we would like to draft you lets start talking .

Sarg01 01-31-2005 09:57 AM

There would be a clear #1 if San Fransico had a big need at Linebacker or Cornerback!

That's really the issue. The folks with the #1 have critical needs that can't be addressed with a player that most people would consider Top 5.

There ARE elite players in this draft: Derrick Johnson, Antrel Rolle, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams and Cedric Benson all spring to mind.

Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers will probably end up being #1, but either would be tossups to even make a Top 10 list of draftees.

texansalltheway 01-31-2005 11:58 AM

San Francisco does need defensive players, and with the hiring of Nolan a defensive coordinator I think they could go for Derrick or Rolle. Nolan could draft DJ to team with Peterson to form the foundation of their defense, like Ray in Baltimore. Or they could improve their team defense by drafting Rolle because there secondary sucks, as a team they only had 8 interceptions.

Blake 01-31-2005 12:35 PM

I still dont think there is a clear cut #1. But I do think people are getting hung up on having to take a QB #1.

Ive heard the old rule is draft a star QB, unless you have one. But I disagree with that. I always think BPA with the #1 overall pick is the best. If its a QB then fine. But just because you have the #1 pick, doesnt mean you have to go QB!

Just a thought.

Sarg01 01-31-2005 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texansalltheway
San Francisco does need defensive players, and with the hiring of Nolan a defensive coordinator I think they could go for Derrick or Rolle. Nolan could draft DJ to team with Peterson to form the foundation of their defense, like Ray in Baltimore. Or they could improve their team defense by drafting Rolle because there secondary sucks, as a team they only had 8 interceptions.

Perhaps I should have been more precise. The problem is that the 49ers do not have a big need that sticks out 10 feet high and waves a flag that says "we're gonna draft XYZ" - they have about 15 need positions! The lack of clarity is a reflection on the 49ers, not on this draft class. We'd have more definition if one of many other teams held the #1.

For instance, if Miami had been #1 rather than #2, Cedric Benson would be a pretty clear leader for #1 - even though Miami isn't in great shape in a lot of places. Or if Chicago were there, Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams. Or Dallas with Rolle. There's lots of other cut-and-dried situations out there.


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