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-   -   Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=58836)

awtysst 02-16-2009 11:53 PM

Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
So, here is my last mock until the combine.

On February 11, 2009 Brett Favre told the Jets that he was retiring. I will make the assumption that he will not ďunretireĒ by the time of the draft. I have SF grabbing Stafford at 10 and as Sanchez falls to us, 4 teams need a QB.

Jets, Chicago, Minnesota, and Detroit (I have them taking an OT 1st) are all in need of a QB. In this scenario Detroit is the most desperate. I could see them offering to swap 1st rounders and giving us their second rounder(#31) in order to jump up to 15 and take This might not sound right, but the math is about 380 points in our direction. If this scenario really occurs, Detorit might be willing to give up their 2nd rounder in order to get their QB of the future. Since this is my Universe, I say they offer it and we accept it. In many ways, itís as good a move for Detroit as it is for us.


1. Brian Cushing-OLB-USC
I am not sure who will be available in this spot, but if he is here, I say we take him. His combine might cause him to rise up, but if he manages to slip, I think heís be a great Sam for us. Add him to Demeco at the Mike and Adibi at the Will and suddenly we have a speedier, sure handed, tackling LB core.

2 (Detroit) Alex Mack-C California
He might rise up higher after the combine, but for now I think he will stick around here.
I have a feeling Max Unger will go higher because he can play virtually any OL position. Teams will see that as a strength and take him. I think Mack is a better Center prospect that can also play OG. We take Mack and solidify the Center spot for a decade. Watch him hold the point of attack and you will understand how much Myer was lacking in this area. This would allow us to move Myers to backup, which I think is where he really belongs.

2. (Houston ) Robert Ayers, Tennessee-DE -Tennessee
In my last mock I had Ayers in the third round. Sadly, I donít think he will last. So, I grab him here in this spot. Ayers could be a great compliment to Mario. He is an All SEC first teamer with 15.5 TFL. What does that mean? He is being disruptive in the backfield. Add in Mario on the other side and a much different Dline mentality and Ayers could be a solid compliment for years to come. By the way, are you starting to see a pattern with these ďAll Conference Teamers?Ē thatís not a coincidence.


3. Derek Pegues, FS, Mississippi State
In the third round its important to start looking at value. Pegues is a great value pick right here. He is a second team SEC player that has great speed and good hands. He can be a play at FS, CB or even return punts. While he is a little small (5í9 193) I think he could get up to 200lbs and not lose his speed. A versatile player like this is an asset. Oh, and you know who else was a speedier FS who returned punts early in his career? Ed Reed. Iím not saying, Iím just saying.

4. Phillip Hunt, DE Houston
You might want to know why I would take another DE, but the fact is we could need help on the Dline. By adding Hunt we would have an opportunity to rotate and keep our D-line even fresher. In the 4th quarter, a fresher Dline can mean the difference between getting to the QB and letting him pick us apart. Getting to the QB can mean hurried throws, tipped passes, and maybe even successful 4th quarter stops!

5. Arian Foster, Tennessee -RB
And there he is ladies and gentleman, Steve Slatonís complimentary back. You might be surprised why I would take him, but please indulge me. He looked really bad at the Senior Bowl by showing up heavy and out of shape. I mean he looked HUGE. He really shot himself in the foot by looking doughy. Fosterís poor decision works for us. His poor outing will cause him to drop to us. Get him focused, get him in a good S&C Program, and he will get himself back in shape. He is a big back (232lbs) that can push the pile and pick up the big yards. He is also a good candidate for the ZBS since he takes the ball and hits the hole. So, why him and not Gartrell? Simple. Speed. He has 4.54 or so speed, so he should be able to stretch the field as well. Gartell does not have that type of speed. A power runner with speed at this part of the draft? Oh yeah!

6 George Bussey, Louisville- OG
In the ZBS, depth on the line is the name of the game. So, what would you want out of a 6th rounder? How about a guy who is athletic and has good feet? How about a backup guard and maybe even our starting LG in the future? Maybe we could move him over to RG and swap Caldwell to LG. Decisions, Decisions. But you know what, its good to have those kind of decision! How about a 2 time-First Team All Big East teamer? Know what I call that? A damn good 6th round pick.

7. Antonio Dixon, Miami- DT
Dixon was a 3 round talent until he suffered a knee injury. He is good at one thing and one thing only: run defense. On obvious running plays I would stick this behemoth (6í3Ē 328 lbs) onto the DL and have him go at it. He will likely only play maybe 10-15 plays an entire game, but he is a 7th rounder. And if he exerts all his energy on those 10-15 plays he will be a major contributor. Oh, and did I mention, he would be a 7th rounder?! What more do you want out of a 7th rounder? If he can be more than Camp Fodder, we will have done very well here.

Wolf6151 02-17-2009 12:30 AM

Re: Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
I like your trade down idea from 15 to 20 but I don't think there's any way that Detroit gives us their 2nd round pick to move up 5 spots, the point value just doesn't work. #15 is worth 1050 points and #20 is worth 850 points, a difference of 200 points. Detroits 2nd round pick is worth 580 points and their 3rd round pick is worth 265 points. I think getting Detroits 3rd round pick would be much more realistic. If your trade did happen though, I'd take Patrick Chung instead of Mack with the first pick of the 2nd round. Cushing, Chung, Ayers, Pegues, Hunt, and Foster....WOW, I wish.

TimeKiller 02-17-2009 08:29 AM

Re: Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
NO WAY I would give Mack up for Chung. Not ever. Or ever.

Cushing isn't my favorite guy. Can't say so much what it is even, I just don't think of him as an impact player I guess...

even without the trade, if it's just Mack for the 2nd and 3-7 stay the same that would be a great draft. Even with Cushing!

awtysst 02-17-2009 10:19 AM

Re: Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolf6151 (Post 1119888)
I like your trade down idea from 15 to 20 but I don't think there's any way that Detroit gives us their 2nd round pick to move up 5 spots, the point value just doesn't work. #15 is worth 1050 points and #20 is worth 850 points, a difference of 200 points. Detroits 2nd round pick is worth 580 points and their 3rd round pick is worth 265 points. I think getting Detroits 3rd round pick would be much more realistic. If your trade did happen though, I'd take Patrick Chung instead of Mack with the first pick of the 2nd round. Cushing, Chung, Ayers, Pegues, Hunt, and Foster....WOW, I wish.

You are right that the math does not support this, but look at it from Detroit's perspective. If they do not make this move, they may not get a top flight qb. In this scenario, The Jets, Chicago, and Minne would all want Sanchez. It will be near impossible for him to slide by the Jets and the Bears. And even if that happened, Detroit would have to worry about the Vikings jumping up and grabbing Sanchez. Plus think about this. After Sanchez the next QB is Freeman. Its possible the Jets take Sanchez and the Bears take Freeman. If that occurs, Detroit misses out on the top 3 qbs. They would then have to consider a much lower rated QB.

At the end of the day they have 2 first rounders. It is not a huge price to give up your second to get your franchise QB.

Polo 02-17-2009 10:27 AM

Re: Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
I would have taken a RB in the fourth. and the DE after that.

Wolf6151 02-17-2009 12:49 PM

Re: Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awtysst (Post 1119968)
You are right that the math does not support this, but look at it from Detroit's perspective. If they do not make this move, they may not get a top flight qb. In this scenario, The Jets, Chicago, and Minne would all want Sanchez. It will be near impossible for him to slide by the Jets and the Bears. And even if that happened, Detroit would have to worry about the Vikings jumping up and grabbing Sanchez. Plus think about this. After Sanchez the next QB is Freeman. Its possible the Jets take Sanchez and the Bears take Freeman. If that occurs, Detroit misses out on the top 3 qbs. They would then have to consider a much lower rated QB.

At the end of the day they have 2 first rounders. It is not a huge price to give up your second to get your franchise QB.


I understand your point but I put myself in the position of Detroits new GM and realize that rebuilding this team will take years and will not be fixed in this draft. If I were Detroits GM I also realize that my team is going to suck again next year and that this years group of QB's isn't very good and there should be several good ones next year. I'd forgo the franchise QB this year and build an O-line to protect the future QB as well as a defense. I'd be afraid that if I draft a franchise QB this year then he'll be the next David Carr and be shell shocked from getting pounded so often. I'd pass on QB this year and build a team worthy of a franchise QB and pick a QB next year when there should be much better QB's to choose from. I do like your trade down scenario, though not to realistic I think, but if it were to happen I'd be thrilled.

bah007 02-17-2009 01:00 PM

Re: Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by awtysst (Post 1119968)
You are right that the math does not support this, but look at it from Detroit's perspective. If they do not make this move, they may not get a top flight qb. In this scenario, The Jets, Chicago, and Minne would all want Sanchez. It will be near impossible for him to slide by the Jets and the Bears. And even if that happened, Detroit would have to worry about the Vikings jumping up and grabbing Sanchez. Plus think about this. After Sanchez the next QB is Freeman. Its possible the Jets take Sanchez and the Bears take Freeman. If that occurs, Detroit misses out on the top 3 qbs. They would then have to consider a much lower rated QB.

At the end of the day they have 2 first rounders. It is not a huge price to give up your second to get your franchise QB.

I would rather have Davis and Bomar than any of the top 3 QB's this year.

You can get them for a bargain and I think they have less bust potential than the top 3.

They can both make all the throws. They just need to be coached up a bit. If Bomar was graduating from Oklahoma instead of Sam Houston St then he would be a 1st rounder.

Stafford doesn't have a grasp on the mental part of playing QB yet, and personally, I'm not sure he will ever completely get it. I think Stafford will bust, cannon or not.

Sanchez will need to sit. If I needed a QB, I would take him after #15 no problem.

Freeman has the prototype build and a strong arm. But I think his bust potential is higher than Stafford's. I think he is really comparable to Ryan Leaf.

threetoedpete 02-18-2009 11:03 AM

Re: Awtysst's Stupidly Early Precombine Draft Thoughts
 
Like the center pick. I guess me and Mayock are the only ones high on Erick Wood. Gbns latest mock Woods going to Indy at the 61 scares me to death.

Foster's been hurt an awful lot. Don't know about that one.


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