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-   -   Texans as the 6th wild card? Not unreasonable! check it out (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5293)

texansfan88 12-21-2004 11:22 AM

Texans as the 6th wild card? Not unreasonable! check it out
 
A reminder of which teams to root for next week!

As you may know, the Texans aren't technically eliminated from the playoffs. Here is the scenario needed for the Texans to play in the post-season.

Week 16
Houston beats Jacksonville
Tennessee beats Denver
Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
San Francisco beats Buffalo

Week 17
Houston beats Cleveland
Miami beats Baltimore
Pittsburgh beats Buffalo
Oakland beats Jacksonville
Indianapolis beats Denver

If these games end with the above results then Houston, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Denver, and Baltimore would all be tied 8-8. The first tie-break is 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. Of the five teams, only Houston and Jax are in the same division. Jacksonville is eliminated on head-to-head with Houston.

Down to HOU, DEN, BUF, and BAL.

The second tie-breaker is 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) This is not applicable as no team has beaten all other teams or lost to all other teams.

The third tie-breaker is 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston 7-5; Denver, Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Houston would get the spot.

Kansas City and Cincinnati are also 6-8 right now, but it doesn't matter what they do. Even if either KC or Cincinnati were to win out, neither would beat Houston in the tie-breakers.

Cincinnati would lose out to Baltimore in the first tie-breaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they went 1-1 in the series, but Cincy is 2-4 in their division while Baltimore is 3-3.

If KC wins out, KC would beat Denver in the first tiebreaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they split the season series, but KC would have a better division record (4-2) to Denver (3-3).

Replaying the above scenario with KC instead of Denver gets the following:

Between HOU, KC, BUF, and BAL there were no sweeps, so it would go to the third tie-breaker: 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston and Kansas City 7-5; Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Baltimore and Buffalo would be eliminated. Then the tie-breaks would start over between Houston and KC.

Tiebreak 1 does not apply as they are in different divisions. Houston wins on tiebreak two: 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Because Houston was 1-0 against KC in the regular season, Houston would get the playoff spot.


Thanks to worgl for this work

kevinjagsfan 12-21-2004 11:23 AM

that's quite a few upsets that have to happen

texansfan88 12-21-2004 11:24 AM

Other than the Buffalo/San Fran game, which of those really seem unwinnable for the teams?

TheOgre 12-21-2004 11:31 AM

The Buffalo/San Fran game is really the showstopper.

texansfan88 12-21-2004 11:35 AM

Lets just break it down

Houston/Jacksonville-will be the game of the AFC next week. If the Texans can play like they did in the first meeting against them, they should be able to pull it out in a tough matchup.

Tennessee/Denver- Denver looked like **** last week and Tennessee at home on primetime with the way that offense is playing will be tough to stop.

Pittsburgh/Baltimore- Pitt wants to win this game, Baltimore needs to win this game. Pittsburgh is just too good defensively to let Baltimore do anything against them. Pitt can take this, but sets up a HUGE problem week 17...read on

Buffalo/San Francisco-This is going to be the biggest problem for the Texans chances. Remember, there is such parity in the nfl that anyone can win on any given week (Dolphins last night). It'll be interesting to see the Bills without McGahee and thats why I think SF has a shot.

week 17

Houston/Cleveland- Assuming everything goes plan this sunday, the fans, coaches, and players know that they're still in the hunt and can possibly clinch with another weird week. Cleveland is just plain terrible. They might be the worst team since the 1-15 panthers of 2001. Texans will be scoreboard watching all game long.

Miami/Baltimore- After looking at 3 games (Baltimore/KC, Baltimore/Indy, Baltimore/Cleveland (week1), the Ravens struggle to put up anything against relatively bad defenses. Miami is not a walk through game. They proved over the last couple of weeks that they can be a trap for any team hoping to get in the playoffs. should be fun to watch either way.

Pittsburgh/Buffalo-Okay, here's the problem I spoke of. Pitt needs to win week 16 if the Texans still want a shot. If they beat Baltimore, which the Texans need, they will have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. That means more than likely, Cowher is going to rest up all of his starters and keep them fresh for the playoff game which is much more important to him. Still, I feel without McGahee, and Big Ben playing at least 1/2 of the game, the Steelers can take this thing.

Oakland/Jacksonville- tough to call. This game is in Oakland and Kerry Collins has been on fire lately. That defense is not a pushover either, they have quality talent and will likely try to end the season on a great note, beating the Jaguars and ending playoff hopes.

Indianapolis/Denver- Depending on how long Manning plays this one will determine the winner of the game. I just don't see the Colts losing again this year.

Blake 12-21-2004 11:37 AM

I think you are getting a little too excited about this. I would just focus on the Texans winning next week.

kevinjagsfan 12-21-2004 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texansfan88
Other than the Buffalo/San Fran game, which of those really seem unwinnable for the teams?

tenessee over denver

miami over baltimore

oakland over jax

texansfan88 12-21-2004 11:42 AM

I'm not excited, in fact i dont think it will happen. but it is not that unreal of a possibility. now if everything goes to plan this week, then I will be excited, but the odds of that happening are about 1:2

STEEL BLUE TEXANS 12-21-2004 12:08 PM

all of this is just wishful thinking. there is no chance all of those teams lose.

texansfan88 12-21-2004 12:20 PM

so you're saying that at least one of those teams is just going to flat out have no shot at winning? why even play the game then? Like I said, not likely, but it's a better shot than Oakland, Tennessee, Miami, San Francisco, CIncinnati, or Cleveland have right now

kevinjagsfan 12-21-2004 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texansfan88
so you're saying that at least one of those teams is just going to flat out have no shot at winning? why even play the game then? Like I said, not likely, but it's a better shot than Oakland, Tennessee, Miami, San Francisco, CIncinnati, or Cleveland have right now

ok, so I won't say that the jax/oakland game is "in the bag" (don't want to jinx it) but I dont think that Miami and tenessee are strong enough

STEEL BLUE TEXANS 12-21-2004 12:24 PM

No chance Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Kansas City all lose their last 2 games. Absolutely NO CHANCE.

Doug 12-21-2004 12:26 PM

I wouldn't make any comments on the Dolphins after last night. LOL

texansfan88 12-21-2004 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by STEEL BLUE TEXANS
No chance Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Kansas City all lose their last 2 games. Absolutely NO CHANCE.

again, says who? are the other teams just supposed to let them win so that that wont happen?

STEEL BLUE TEXANS 12-21-2004 12:29 PM

5 teams have to lose the rest of their games for us to even have a chance at the playoffs. Not gonna happen.

Lucky 12-21-2004 12:55 PM

Reminds me of the scene from Dumb & Dumber.

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd : Not good like one in a hundred?
Mary : I'd say more like one in a million.
Lloyd : So you're telling me there's a chance? Yes!

STEEL BLUE TEXANS 12-21-2004 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky
Reminds me of the scene from Dumb & Dumber.

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd : Not good like one in a hundred?
Mary : I'd say more like one in a million.
Lloyd : So you're telling me there's a chance? Yes!




lol, exactly. I sure hope these people don't gamble.

Doug 12-21-2004 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky
Reminds me of the scene from Dumb & Dumber.

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd : Not good like one in a hundred?
Mary : I'd say more like one in a million.
Lloyd : So you're telling me there's a chance? Yes!

That's priceless! :rofl:

TheOgre 12-21-2004 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by STEEL BLUE TEXANS
No chance Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Kansas City all lose their last 2 games. Absolutely NO CHANCE.

We don't care about KC. They don't matter.

STEEL BLUE TEXANS 12-21-2004 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOgre
We don't care about KC. They don't matter.




You're right. We have the head to head tie breaker with them. This is all a moot point though since the Broncos, Jags, Ravens or Bills will win at least 1 game in the next 2 weeks.


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