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-   -   Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51112)

TheRealJoker 06-16-2008 05:02 PM

Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
This is in Total Defense, you can also throw in ppg and takeaways but mainly just the overall defensive rank. Now that we've signed Colvin I think we're through with notable FA signings this offseason.

Colvin brings us a pass rushing presence opposite Mario which was the most glaring hole left that needed to be filled after the draft. He has some negative things about him however, he has played mainly LB since he's been in the NFL whereas the Texans will most likely have him play DE in passing situations. But the biggest negative is HEALTH. The Texans do not have good luck when it comes to players staying healthy but if that changes this season we are competing for the playoffs.

On defense we added:

Colvin (pass rusher), Reeves (projected to be a good fit for the system), Molden (Fred Bennet clone), Adibi (Coverage LB), and Okam (run stuffer).

Its easier to list the players we DONT expect to improve as starters given the youth and experience of our defense. Off the top of my head the only players I dont expect to make notable improvement with added experience from last year are Will Demps (he's an overachiever type who doesn't have a high ceiling imo), Dunta Robinson (injury main reason), Anthony Weaver (not a fit for our system), and Morlon Greenwood (what you see is what you get).

Other than those 4 I expect every position to be upgraded by the natural progression young players are expected to make in this league with experience. Just like Mario did from year 1 to year 2 I expect Amobi to make similar strides. We have other young players like Bennett and Diles who I feel will make progress, Bennett because of experience and Diles because of opportunity and the fact that even if he's average he's still an upgrade over what we had last season at SAM.

I now save the best for last in my analysis of the defense:

We have 2 legitimate All Pros on defense in DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams who I fully expect to improve with yet another year in the NFL and with added talent around them. This is the year these two players will be mentioned in discussions about the best players by their position.

MY RANKING:

The Texans total defensive ranking is 9th.

I think its a realistic mark, given the improved offense and the defensive upgrades mentioned I believe we can be a top 10 defense. If the offense gives the defense time to breathe by moving the chains and not turning the ball over along with the upgrades then I think this is the year the Texans defense is top 10 in the league.

I am hoping we are # 1 85 Bears, 00 Ravens, and 02 Bucs esque though!!! :texflag:

brakos82 06-16-2008 05:08 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
When I saw this thread, I was thinking 9th as well. :thinking:

D-Frank 06-16-2008 05:19 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
13th:thisbig:

ObsiWan 06-16-2008 06:00 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Not to be a downer, but while I'm glad to see us accumulating better chess pieces, we still have the same old dude - R.Smith - sitting at the board moving them around.

Until he proves to be a "chessmaster", I'm not placing any bets.

A Texan 06-16-2008 06:03 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
How good our defensive stats are is directly proportional to how good our running game is. See Jacksonville.

Texanmike02 06-16-2008 08:22 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
We'll be an above average defense who is susceptible to the pass. I think we're going to see a lot of slants run on us this year. 3 wr sets are going to give us severe problems. When we play teams with young QB's however, and those that struggle to protect the QB, we will see a glimpse into the future.

Mike

pappy 06-16-2008 08:57 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texanmike (Post 938677)
We'll be an above average defense who is susceptible to the pass. I think we're going to see a lot of slants run on us this year. 3 wr sets are going to give us severe problems. When we play teams with young QB's however, and those that struggle to protect the QB, we will see a glimpse into the future.

Mike

I do think you maybe correct about the method the texans are attacked but the result will depend some on who we play and how they play . If Adibi is going to be the choice for a lb spot we will cover a lot better than you purpose especially if you put bentley on the opposite side . If we have molden as a nickel corner and bennett with reese we could be good there to , the only downer are the safety players . The expectations of a good to great defense if they can stay healthy are reasonable but a bunch depends on the offense getting it going and not having the defense play the whole game all year . I am going with a fifth place finish . :jogger:

Texanmike02 06-16-2008 09:16 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pappy (Post 938689)
I do think you maybe correct about the method the texans are attacked but the result will depend some on who we play and how they play . If Adibi is going to be the choice for a lb spot we will cover a lot better than you purpose especially if you put bentley on the opposite side . If we have molden as a nickel corner and bennett with reese we could be good there to , the only downer are the safety players . The expectations of a good to great defense if they can stay healthy are reasonable but a bunch depends on the offense getting it going and not having the defense play the whole game all year . I am going with a fifth place finish . :jogger:

There are only 4 teams in the division man.... and there's no way this is a top 5 defense yet. We're on the right track... but not there yet.

Mike

pappy 06-16-2008 09:35 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texanmike (Post 938701)
There are only 4 teams in the division man.... and there's no way this is a top 5 defense yet. We're on the right track... but not there yet.

Mike

Ok so we can tell you feel different than me but just where are you predicting this defense to fall to ?:poker:

NitroGSXR 06-16-2008 10:08 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
If we don't get any takeaways then it doesn't really matter much how good our defense is. They have to be able to get off the field otherwise teams can just continue to pound the ball and move the chains. If opponents aren't afraid of turning the ball over, they'll go with the safe play more often than not and that doesn't change how good we are at breaking up plays. I know that sounds confusing a little bit but I really believe it really does hinge on takeaways on where our defense will finish and we're terrible there.

It makes sense to me for a team to want to play the safe route more often if they don't fear turning the football over against a defensive unit rather than going for the bigtime play all the time. That's how teams seemed to play us. It seemed like that they would rather have their runningback face off with Morlon Greenwood than trying to match up with Bennett or Dunta. Morlon will tackle them but they at least get some yards. With Dunta, it was a hit or miss but they either lost yards or gave up the big play. We also still have to figure out the Peyton project and then we should be good after that. We do face him twice a season and that plays a big factor into our stats. He's not a stat machine like Brady but a VERY VERY good football player who can get rid of the ball in a HURRY. Just probably one of the smartest football players to play the game.

I'm in no way claiming to be a football expert. Just a regular fan giving his personal opinion. I, of course, could be VERY wrong here.

I won't be giving out any rankings though. I don't really care where we're ranked. I just want to win and play some good football games. We'll blow some. We'll win some.

SOLIS 06-16-2008 10:33 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRealJoker (Post 938599)
Predict the Texans statistical finish

@ TRJ
That's a great discussion topic. Here's a little factoid I dug up at NFL.com...

Last year the Texans ranked 21th in total team Sacks with 31. That is roughly 1.9 sacks a game. If the Texans revamped defense, can average just a half a sack more per game we would be looking at roughly 38.5 sacks - which would have been good enough for a top-ten finish when going by last years sack totals. Of course, keep in mind, that's top-ten in total sacks. If we were to increase the average sacks from 1.9 to 2.7 (that's still averaging less than a sack a game) we would be looking at a top five finish (again based on last years sack totals).

In as far as how that pertains to the Texans total defense for next year? Well, high sack totals don't necessarily equate to top ranked defenses - as the neither the Steelers, Bucs, or Colts were in the top-ten total sacks. But if the Texans are figuring to have a better pass rush, which I'm betting they will, that will increase quarterback pressure - as the QB pressure goes up, so do the opportunity for interceptions - and that's a department the Texans need to improve in. Big time. They ranked dead last in 2007.

If the Texans have any chance of breaking the top ten in total defense, the interception total is going to have to higher. Until they prove that they can do that, their total team defense is going to suffer.

With the uncertainties in the secondary, (not saying I doubt they'll perform, we just don't know how well) I can only give them a 14th - but on the brightside of that assessment - that's a ten team improvement.

I really want to revist this topic about six games into the season. Great post TRJ.

ObsiWan 06-16-2008 11:48 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SOLIS (Post 938716)
@ TRJ
That's a great discussion topic. Here's a little factoid I dug up at NFL.com...

If the Texans have any chance of breaking the top ten in total defense, the interception total is going to have to higher. Until they prove that they can do that, their total team defense is going to suffer.

I really want to revist this topic about six games into the season. Great post TRJ.

not just INTs but total turnover ratio.
I love that Kubiak & co. preached that all thru OTAs.

We've got some improving youngsters and some tantilizing new pieces to the defense. I want to see how they jell together and, just as importantly, how Richard Smith puts them to use.

I'll give you a predict after T/C ...for what its worth

SOLIS 06-16-2008 11:52 PM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ObsiWan (Post 938751)
not just INTs but total turnover ratio.
I love that Kubiak & co. preached that all thru OTAs.

We've got some improving youngsters and some tantilizing new pieces to the defense. I want to see how they jell together and, just as importantly, how Richard Smith puts them to use.

I'll give you a predict after T/C ...for what its worth

Well - I have to check, but I think the defense was 10th in the league in fumble recoveries - which isn't too shabby. I can live with that - but being dead last in interceptions is totally unacceptable.

ObsiWan 06-17-2008 12:06 AM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
we're tied for 10th with Seattle & Pittsburgh

but unlike us, the other two teams had positive T/O ratios

SOLIS 06-17-2008 12:18 AM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ObsiWan (Post 938762)
tied for 10th with Seattle & Pittsburgh

but unlike us, the other two teams had positive T/O ratios

The ratio was skewed because of the lack of interceptions and the offense's penchant for fumbling.

But right on. So if that number can stay relatively unchanged, and we buy the secondary some stickum (I'm looking at you Demps), we should be poised to climb the total defense ladder, as it were.

The fact that 'The Fred' showed real promise as a rookie (and in limited playing time no less) is enough to keep me optimistic about an improvement in the interception totals. Here's hoping Ray Rhodes can work his mojo.

DocBar 06-17-2008 12:23 AM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SOLIS (Post 938716)
@ TRJ
That's a great discussion topic. Here's a little factoid I dug up at NFL.com...

Last year the Texans ranked 21th in total team Sacks with 31. That is roughly 1.9 sacks a game. If the Texans revamped defense, can average just a half a sack more per game we would be looking at roughly 38.5 sacks - which would have been good enough for a top-ten finish when going by last years sack totals. Of course, keep in mind, that's top-ten in total sacks. If we were to increase the average sacks from 1.9 to 2.7 (that's still averaging less than a sack a game) we would be looking at a top five finish (again based on last years sack totals).
In as far as how that pertains to the Texans total defense for next year? Well, high sack totals don't necessarily equate to top ranked defenses - as the neither the Steelers, Bucs, or Colts were in the top-ten total sacks. But if the Texans are figuring to have a better pass rush, which I'm betting they will, that will increase quarterback pressure - as the QB pressure goes up, so do the opportunity for interceptions - and that's a department the Texans need to improve in. Big time. They ranked dead last in 2007.

If the Texans have any chance of breaking the top ten in total defense, the interception total is going to have to higher. Until they prove that they can do that, their total team defense is going to suffer.

With the uncertainties in the secondary, (not saying I doubt they'll perform, we just don't know how well) I can only give them a 14th - but on the brightside of that assessment - that's a ten team improvement.

I really want to revist this topic about six games into the season. Great post TRJ.

How do 1.9 sacks a game equal less than 1 per game? Are you saying going from 1.9 to 2.7 is less than ADDING 1 sack per game? That seems doable if Smith can ever get around to playing to our players strengths, which has been sorely lacking so far.

SOLIS 06-17-2008 12:38 AM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DocBar (Post 938767)
How do 1.9 sacks a game equal less than 1 per game? Are you saying going from 1.9 to 2.7 is less than ADDING 1 sack per game? That seems doable if Smith can ever get around to playing to our players strengths, which has been sorely lacking so far.

Right, let me clarify that - it would be adding less than a sack a game to last year's 1.9 sack a game average.

In related news - fractions/decimals are always in a recipe for a f'ed up post.

But yeah - I think it is very doable. Whether the .8 sack a game comes from a revitalized Weaver, a hungry Diles, or a non-gimpy Colvin (you know I had to take my shot) it's very possible. Hell, nothing says that Mario won't be able to improve on last years total either...

Texanmike02 06-17-2008 01:03 AM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pappy (Post 938704)
Ok so we can tell you feel different than me but just where are you predicting this defense to fall to ?:poker:

hmm.... Well I said above average so somewhere in the 10-15 range. But honestly it hard to say. Is Reeves better than advertised? If either Reeves or Molden steps up... we could do better... But honestly I think we'll make some mistakes in the secondary.


Rather than taking a random stab at it and picking a number from a hat... I'll just say above average.

Mike

dalemurphy 06-17-2008 01:12 AM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texanmike (Post 938773)
hmm.... Well I said above average so somewhere in the 10-15 range. But honestly it hard to say. Is Reeves better than advertised? If either Reeves or Molden steps up... we could do better... But honestly I think we'll make some mistakes in the secondary.


Rather than taking a random stab at it and picking a number from a hat... I'll just say above average.

Mike

Well, Reeves is better than VHutchins. He's a more gifted athlete and has been more productive. I'm not sure why Reeves has such a bad rap. He was pretty good for Dallas last year. I hate Dallas and when Newman went down injured early, I thought they were in a lot of trouble. Reeves held down the position very well, I thought.

dalemurphy 06-17-2008 01:24 AM

Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by NitroHonda (Post 938714)
If we don't get any takeaways then it doesn't really matter much how good our defense is. They have to be able to get off the field otherwise teams can just continue to pound the ball and move the chains. If opponents aren't afraid of turning the ball over, they'll go with the safe play more often than not and that doesn't change how good we are at breaking up plays. I know that sounds confusing a little bit but I really believe it really does hinge on takeaways on where our defense will finish and we're terrible there.

It makes sense to me for a team to want to play the safe route more often if they don't fear turning the football over against a defensive unit rather than going for the bigtime play all the time. That's how teams seemed to play us. It seemed like that they would rather have their runningback face off with Morlon Greenwood than trying to match up with Bennett or Dunta. Morlon will tackle them but they at least get some yards. With Dunta, it was a hit or miss but they either lost yards or gave up the big play. We also still have to figure out the Peyton project and then we should be good after that. We do face him twice a season and that plays a big factor into our stats. He's not a stat machine like Brady but a VERY VERY good football player who can get rid of the ball in a HURRY. Just probably one of the smartest football players to play the game.

I'm in no way claiming to be a football expert. Just a regular fan giving his personal opinion. I, of course, could be VERY wrong here.

I won't be giving out any rankings though. I don't really care where we're ranked. I just want to win and play some good football games. We'll blow some. We'll win some.

:fans:


Defensive rankings are kind of silly actually. The official rankings are based on total yards- which is a very incomplete stat. Too many variables affect total yards allowed...

1. If you're a high scoring offense, your defense will give up more yards because the opposing team will feel compelled to take more chances and throw downfield more often.

2. A team that's excellent versus the run will give up more YPG than a team that struggles against the run because the passing game simply garners more yards.

3. An aggressive defense that creates a lot of turnovers will be more apt to give up big plays as well, which will lead to more YPG.

4. A very good team will have large leads late in games and play prevent defense which will allow teams to pad Yardage statistics.

5. A very bad offensive team will likely give up fewer YPG because the other team will gameplan to protect the ball and play conservatively in order to win, thus padding the statistics of the defense. The best example of this is Bill Parcell's first season with Dallas. Quincy Carter was QB, Troy Hambrick was RB, and the offense was awful. That defense finished #1 in the NFL in YPG- and certainly they were nowhere near the best.


If our defense is able to get off the field on third down, create turnovers, and limit points scored, then it's a very good defense. I could care less how many yards per game it gives up.


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