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-   -   Draft Positioning (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4528)

shinerbock_texas 11-22-2004 04:49 PM

Draft Positioning
 
Here is the lastest possibly draft scenarios based upon current losing records. As we all probably remember from last year, ties are decided by strength of schedule, so teams with easier schedules draft ahead of teams with more difficult schedules. Anyways who do you think will end up with the overall 1st pick in the draft. Miami or SF. If so do they take the 5th straight QB with the overall #1. Aaron Rodgers from Cal anyone?


W L
Miami 1 9
San Francisco 1 9
Cleveland 3 7
Kansas City 3 6
Oakland 3 7
Dallas 3 7
Washington 3 7
Carolina 3 7
Arizona 4 6
Buffalo 4 6
Houston 4 6
Tennessee 4 6
Cincinnati 4 6
Detroit 4 6
Chicago 4 6
Tampa Bay 4 6
New Orleans 4 6
NY Giants 5 5
St. Louis 5 5
Green Bay 6 4
Minnesota 6 4
Jacksonville 6 4
Seattle 6 4
Baltimore 7 3
Indianapolis 7 3
Denver 7 3
San Diego 7 3
NY Jets 7 3
Atlanta 8 2
New England 8 1
Philadelphia 9 1
Pittsburgh 9 1

wolf123 11-22-2004 08:48 PM

You put houston in front of all those other 4-6 teams is that because we have a weaker schedule if so where did you find that?

Huge 11-22-2004 09:47 PM

Giants and Buffalo do not (currently) have a first round pick next April.

shinerbock_texas 11-22-2004 10:03 PM

actually all I was doing was posting the teams by records, not by strength of schedule. There are lots of teams bunched up with the same records, but all will play out over the next 6 weeks

ArlingtonTexan 11-22-2004 10:49 PM

Shiner, thanks for effort, but
 
There are plenty of site which keep track of draft positioning. gbnreport.com, thehuddlereport.com, about.com

just giving that so you don't pull your hairout trying to keep up.

Youngstown Colt 11-23-2004 12:04 AM

well, history has told us the dolphins will either draft QB alex smith or matt lienert, because in the last 4 drafts, the first pick was vick(#7) carr(#8) palmer (#9) manning (#10)

so of course the first player taken will have to wear #11, and thats smith and lienert.

beerlover 11-23-2004 05:03 AM

As of week 11 here is the draft order courtesy of the huddle report-

PICK TEAM WINS OPP%
1 49ERS 1 0.481
2 DOLPHINS 1 0.563
3 REDSKINS 3 0.513
4 PANTHERS 3 0.519
5 COWBOYS 3 0.544
RAIDERS 3 0.544
7 CHIEFS 3 0.563
8 BROWNS 3 0.575
9 CARDINALS 4 0.456
BUCCANEERS 4 0.456
11 SAINTS 4 0.469
12 BEARS 4 0.488
13 TITANS 4 0.494
14 BILLS 4 0.513
15 TEXANS 4 0.525
16 LIONS 4 0.531
17 BENGALS 4 0.563
18 RAMS 5 0.481
19 GIANTS 5 0.531
20 SEAHAWKS 6 0.431
21 PACKERS 6 0.481
22 VIKINGS 6 0.494
23 JAGUARS 6 0.519
24 BRONCOS 7 0.444
25 CHARGERS 7 0.475
26 JETS 7 0.488
27 RAVENS 7 0.519
28 COLTS 7 0.525
29 FALCONS 8 0.419
30 EAGLES 9 0.456
31 PATRIOTS 9 0.463
32 STEELERS 9 0.488

The Texans still face the Titans, Jets, Colts, Bears, Jags & Browns. Only the Browns, Bears & Titans have lesser records, two of which are at home. So at a minimum two more wins or 6-10. Flip a coin if you think the Texans can win a couple more, anything is possible in the NFL but generally the 15th spot is a pretty good guess, the Rams & Giants being teams that could slip and Bills, & Bucs could all move higher, but only marginally.

So with the 15th pick the Texans are going to have to decide between Marcus Spears, DT LSU/ Ahmad Brooks LB Virgina/ David Pollack LB Georgia/ Thomas Davis S Georgia/

There are four outstanding corners but all may be taken by the time the Texans pick, Antrel Rolle, Miami/ Marlon Jackson, Michigan/ Justin Miller, Clemson/ Corey Webster, LSU. If we could choose it would be Antrel Rolle who is a big, aggressive cover who would compliment Dunta very nicely as Glenn still schools them both :heh: the Texans would not pass him up IF were available.

David Pollack would be my linebacker of choice, but if Ahmad Brooks comes out early he would be hard to pass up due to his playmaking skills. Pollack is almost a carbon copy of Babin, but thats not such a bad thing either.

The two top RB's should be already selected by the time the Texans pick Cedric Benson, TX/ Cadillac Williams, Auburn. But if the Texans want a big time young RB then it has to be Ronnie Brown of Auburn.

The most likey pick would be Marcus Spears a big, cat quick DT that would fit perfectly in the 3-4, moving Robaire Smith to nose tackle, bringing Seth in on passing situations, Marcus would be on the wing, then the Texans would have for the first time an effective pass rush.

Lastly for those of you who wanted to trade up for Sean Taylor, Georgia Safety Thomas Davis is the player, although we seem to have a good player coming up in rookie Glenn Earl, McCree however is a free agent after seasons end.

Grid 11-23-2004 05:37 AM

hopefully we will resign Mcree.

What about Derrick Johnson.. is he a top 5? I wasnt a big "trade up for Taylor" supporter.. but I may be a big trade up for Derrick Johnson supporter :)

LoNghoRn-TeXaN 11-23-2004 05:44 AM

I'm a Longhorn and I would love if Derrick Johnson becomes a Texan. However we have more important needs on the DL. And I dont see the Texans trading up about 10 spots to pick Derrick Johnson. It would cost just way too much.

Grid 11-23-2004 06:16 AM

Not necessarily.

If ya think about it, or needs on defense are many.. but our need for defensive rookies are few. We dont need 10 more rookies.. we need 2 more playmakers and some depth.

As I said in my other post here, I would be willing to give up our 1st 2nd and one of our 3rds to move up and get Johnson. That would still leave us with a 3rd for day 1.. which we can use to get a quality Dline prospect.

then we still have our 4th, 5th, 6th, and 2 7ths to try for a little more depth.

I mean honestly.. Seth Payne is going to start next year whether we get a rookie lineman or not. And so is Robaire smith.. but judging by Walkers current play, he may be better off spelling our other linemen, than starting. So we need 1 lineman, and a 3rd round pick is plenty high enough to get a good lineman.

We could really use an ILB to take Foreman's spot.. but it is not a huge necessity. Maybe our 4th rounder?

We have Dunta, I dont think a rookie CB is a huge priority this year.. next year, yah I could see it being really important.. but giving Dunta another year before we bring in another rookie would probably be a good idea.

FS is not a problem if we resign Mcree.. we will have Coleman and Mcree and that is good.

SS isnt a problem if Earl keeps playing like he is.. and we have Clemmons to back him up.



So really when ya think about it.. we DO need depth on defense but we are not hurting real bad at any position.. and we definatly need some young linemen.. but we still have free agency, and there are no linemen in the draft this year that are better prospects than Derrick Johnson.


The question would be.. who would johnson replace? Babin or Wong? if we get Johnson, it is gonna make the battle at OLB very interesting next offseason. (a battle at OLB! woo!!)

LoNghoRn-TeXaN 11-23-2004 06:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grid
The question would be.. who would johnson replace? Babin or Wong? if we get Johnson, it is gonna make the battle at OLB very interesting next offseason. (a battle at OLB! woo!!)

I thought you were talking about getting Derrick Johnson for playing ILB not OLB. I cant see him playing OLB in the 3-4.

beerlover 11-23-2004 01:47 PM

Derrick Johnson will play middle linebacker in a 3-4 NFL defense. Do the Texans need to upgrade Foreman @ MLB, the consensous is yeah they probably will take a look at this in the draft or via free agency.

Trading up high in the draft order would cost the Texans. For this reason alone I oppose the idea. There are plenty of fish in the sea, the Texans will have another excellent talent to bring in next year and I think its more positive to focus on the players realisticly available at this time as well as those who fit the Texans.

top needs-
pass rush-DT
pass outlet-TE
ground attack-RB
ground attack-OL
pass coverage-LB
future shutdown-CB

Grid 11-23-2004 04:16 PM

hey ILB works! :).. I thought he was an OLB.

shinerbock_texas 11-30-2004 09:37 AM

Through Week 12

Based On Full 16 Game Schedule
Pick Team Wins Opp%

1 49ers 1 0.472
2 Dolphins 2 0.557
3 Redskins 3 0.511
4 Chiefs 3 0.563
5 Browns 3 0.591
6 Cardinals 4 0.449
Buccaneers 4 0.449
8 Saints 4 0.472
9 Bears 4 0.489
10 Panthers 4 0.506
Titans 4 0.506
12 Cowboys 4 0.528
13 Lions 4 0.534
14 Raiders 4 0.540
15 Rams 5 0.483
16 Bills 5 0.517
Texans 5 0.517
18 Giants 5 0.534
19 Bengals 5 0.557
20 Seahawks 6 0.438
21 Jaguars 6 0.528
22 Broncos 7 0.460
23 Packers 7 0.477
24 Vikings 7 0.483
25 Ravens 7 0.534
26 Chargers 8 0.472
27 Jets 8 0.500
28 Colts 8 0.517
29 Falcons 9 0.403
30 Eagles 10 0.455
31 Patriots 10 0.477
32 Steelers 10 0.494

TheOgre 11-30-2004 10:34 AM

I could see Matt Leinart going to San Fran or Miami if he comes out early.

Derrick Johnson should be a top 5 pick. He might drop to top 10 if the top teams don't need a LB.


Also, here is hoping the Bills win a few more games. I don't want the Cowboys to have 2 picks in the first half of the draft.

I do hope the Boys continue to lose, though, since we get their 3rd round pick.

shinerbock_texas 11-30-2004 10:55 AM

I can personally see Aaron Rodgers and the Qb from Az State going 1/2 with either man going first or second.

rittenhouserobz 12-08-2004 07:20 AM

I am not sure if this is good news but our current position in the draft is 13. Here is the list.

nunusguy 12-08-2004 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rittenhouserobz
I am not sure if this is good news but our current position in the draft is 13.

At that this point in the season (with us being out of the playoffs), the
higher we move up in the draft the better. This season is over, the focus
should now be on future seasons.

ArlingtonTexan 12-08-2004 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nunusguy
At that this point in the season (with us being out of the playoffs), the
higher we move up in the draft the better. This season is over, the focus
should now be on future seasons.

Think moving up in the draft is generally overrated. this year, especially there is not a great separation of talent between the top 7 or 8 prospects and the rest of the pack. as the draft approaches things could look different, but there 15-20 guys right now people are making arguments are top ten picks. i don't think they will be getting a better player at 11 or 12 than at 18 or 19.

nunusguy 12-08-2004 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan
Think moving up in the draft is generally overrated. this year, especially there is not a great separation of talent between the top 7 or 8 prospects and the rest of the pack. as the draft approaches things could look different, but there 15-20 guys right now people are making arguments are top ten picks. i don't think they will be getting a better player at 11 or 12 than at 18 or 19.

My point was not to suggest we should "trade-up" in the draft. My point is
that since we have no realistic chance of getting in the playoffs, there is
really a disincentive to win more games this year since it would only cost
us in the draft order. For those who say we won 4 in '02, 5 last year and therefor if we win 6 games this year we are making progress - I think that's
silly. To me there is virtually no between winning 5 games and 6 or 7 if you
miss the playoffs except you get a better draft pick with the < W-L.


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