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-   -   A Case Against the Chiefs (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=102583)

CloakNNNdagger 10-18-2013 08:35 AM

A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Here is a well laid-out article that unveils the "chinks in the armour" of our upcoming 6-0 opponent.

Quote:

Kansas City Chiefs are 6-0, but their luck is about to run out

KC have surprised the NFL with their strong start, but the statistics say it is about to get much tougher.

.............Led by new head coach Andy Reid, the Arrowhead natives are 6-0 and have only won one game by less than two scores. They are almost certainly heading towards the playoffs on the strength of their defense. Yet, the Chiefs may end up packing their bags earlier than you might think.

Why?

1. The Chiefs offense is a big ball of meh

No team is going to be the best in every facet of the game. The Broncos defense leaves much to be desired. Yet, the Chiefs offense is really something else, which could come back to haunt them.

Quarterback Alex Smith ranks 22nd in the league for passer rating. He is averaging 6.16 yards per attempt, which is worst in the league for starting quarterbacks. He's tied for eighth for the most sacks.

Running back Jamaal Charles is averaging only 4.2 yards per rushing attempt–good enough for only 20th in the league. Advanced NFL Stats says that Charles is 60th for all running backs in win probability added for every play he's directly involved in.

The Chiefs simply have no good or great receivers statistically speaking. The top pass catcher for the Chiefs, Donnie Avery, ranks 51st in receiving yards with only 310. No Chiefs receiver has more than two touchdown receptions.

Overall, Advanced NFL Stats rates the Chiefs offense as 30th in offensive efficiency.

2. The Chiefs haven't been playing tough opponents


This is actually true of the Broncos and Seahawks as well, but look at who the Chiefs have played. They beat the Giants and Jaguars, who are terrible. The took down the Cowboys, Eagles, Raiders, and Titans, who are at best .500 teams. The only one of these going down in the record books is the Jaguars – and that is for awfulness.

Taking a more advanced statistical look, we can look at Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Over Average (DVOA). This breaks down every NFL play and compares teams against a league baseline average. By this measure, the Chiefs have the 31st hardest schedule to this point.

If they had a more even schedule, they'd probably have at least one loss already.

3. The Chiefs will start playing tough opponents

DVOA suggests that the Chiefs' luck may run out. They are expected to have the seventh most difficult schedule the rest of the season. They have to play the Broncos (more on that below) and a decent Chargers team twice, the Colts, and an underrated Bills team that plays pretty well at home.

The chance that the Chiefs can stay near perfect is pretty slim. Football Outsiders has them going only 6-4 the rest of the season.

4. The Broncos and homefield

There's room for more than one great team in the NFL. The problem is there really isn't room for two great teams in the same division. The Chiefs and Broncos both play in the AFC West. The Broncos, by most measures, including point differential and advanced stat team efficiency ratings from both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats, look like the better team.

That's an issue for Chiefs, because they have to play the Broncos twice. The Broncos also have the easier remaining schedule. That would suggest that the Broncos are more likely to end up with the better record.

Thus, the Chiefs are probably going to end up with the fifth spot in the AFC's playoff brackets. That means they'll have to win three times on the road to make the Super Bowl. That's not impossible, though the odds are against it.

The home team has won a little more than 60% of its games in the playoffs since 2002. Three teams have won three road games to win the Super Bowl over the past decade and none before that. This suggests that the homefield advantage may be waning, but it still exists.

You can add 2-3 points to the home team's margin than what would you expect on a neutral field. In a league where games are often won by a few points, this can make all the difference in the world.

Conclusion

The Chiefs are a good football team. I'm not sure, however, they are good as their 6-0 record indicates. Their offense and strength of opponent has been weak. A tougher upcoming schedule and the looming Broncos in the same division argues for a team that will have a more difficult time moving forward.
The Texans weren't in this article's discussion, but there is now also the unknown Case against the Chiefs................

robroy72 10-18-2013 08:38 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Are the 6-0 Chiefs the same as the 7-0 Texans last year? Remember what happened when a wounded GB team came into Reliant ....

Premier 10-18-2013 09:02 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by robroy72 (Post 2232050)
Are the 6-0 Chiefs the same as the 7-0 Texans last year? Remember what happened when a wounded GB team came into Reliant ....

texans were never 7-0

IDEXAN 10-18-2013 09:33 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
This is Alex Smith we are playing Sunday, not Tom Brady or not even Sam Bradford, so chances are their offense is not going to score a bunch of points on it's own if the Texans defense can play some real ball here. If so, it should be a low-scoring, defense-dominated game which should keep us in the contest and maybe we'll have the turnovers go our way, or get a lucky call, whatever, where we are still in the game late and have a shot in the fourth quarter.
And Keenum needs to avoid mistakes more than try to be a hero because this is a very good, very opportunistic Chiefs defense.

cstyle42 10-18-2013 09:43 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Premier (Post 2232059)
texans were never 7-0

I don't know why so many texan fans are sooo misinformed... smh

badboy 10-18-2013 09:53 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
IIRC we have kept Charles to around 125 or less and I sort of like KC as opponent in that team should step up for a tougher team and should take some pressure off Keenum as non Texans fans will not expect much. Could be a upset here.

robroy72 10-18-2013 10:05 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Premier (Post 2232059)
texans were never 7-0

you're right ... it was 5-0. :wadepalm:

robroy72 10-18-2013 10:06 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cstyle42 (Post 2232077)
I don't know why so many texan fans are sooo misinformed... smh

Well, we have you intellectualism to shake your head when someone posts something wrong :smooch:

cstyle42 10-18-2013 10:11 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by robroy72 (Post 2232089)
Well, we have you intellectualism to shake your head when someone posts something wrong :smooch:

Lol if the texans were 7-0 in your dreams I understand... maybe your seeing the future with Case Keenum starting at quarterback.

chicagotexan2 10-18-2013 10:19 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by robroy72 (Post 2232050)
Are the 6-0 Chiefs the same as the 7-0 Texans last year? Remember what happened when a wounded GB team came into Reliant ....

Did we trade for Aaron Rodgers? I think the Chiefs are beatable because thier offense is bad, but the defense is very good and we have a QB making his first start.

Runner 10-18-2013 10:25 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
There are a lot of interesting arguments here. Not as many as those for why we'd beat the Rams last week, but still a lot.

No matter what the Chiefs weaknesses, the Texans still have to play much, much better than they have been recently. I don't know that the spark and skills the new QB brings to the game will lead to that great an improvement.

The game should be very interesting on many levels. It is something to look forward to again.

kingtexan 10-18-2013 10:55 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by chicagotexan2 (Post 2232100)
Did we trade for Aaron Rodgers?

No, but Don Majkowski went down ... and Brett Favre is coming in ...

Big Lou 10-18-2013 11:30 AM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cstyle42 (Post 2232077)
I don't know why so many texan fans are sooo misinformed... smh

I have decided that the Texans won the SB last year. It's helping me deal with the current state of the team. Now if I could just find one of those SB Champion Hats!

Uncle Rico 10-18-2013 12:06 PM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
This KC team reminds me a little of our team last year heading into the GB game. Obviously we don't have an Aaron Rodgers but there is star power on our team and I'm not going to be surprised if we make it interesting or even sneak one out.

Case "Willie Beamen" Keenum to the rescue! Coincidence that Sundance channel ran that movie yesterday? Any Given Sunday fellas you gotta believe.

Edit: actually read all the posts and my point was made already, and I just so happen to agree.

HouTx11 10-18-2013 01:01 PM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
I'm not gonna make the mistake of overestimating the Chiefs. They went into Nashville and spanked the Titans. The Texans needed OT to beat the Titans at home.

The Texans have their work cut out for them. I will be pleased if the Texans win on Sunday by any margin.

Thorn 10-18-2013 01:02 PM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by HouTx11 (Post 2232185)
I'm not gonna make the mistake of overestimating the Chiefs. They went into Nashville and spanked the Titans. The Texans needed OT to beat the Titans at home.

The Texans have their work cut out for them. I will be pleased if the Texans win on Sunday by any margin.

Hell, I'll be pleased if we just look like a football team for a change. We've looked like a bunch of jokes lately.

Runner 10-18-2013 01:15 PM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Lou (Post 2232132)
I have decided that the Texans won the SB last year. It's helping me deal with the current state of the team. Now if I could just find one of those SB Champion Hats!

I think you can find the hats at the same place the players got their letterman jackets.

DBCooper 10-18-2013 01:26 PM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cstyle42 (Post 2232077)
I don't know why so many texan fans are sooo misinformed... smh

I don't know why so many of your posts make you sound like an ass.

Double Barrel 10-18-2013 03:54 PM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
Shut down Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs offense becomes one dimensional.

Feed the rock to our two-headed monsters - Foster & Tate - and set up that playaction / bootleg. Case could have a solid day if Foster & Tate make the Chiefs have to play the run game.

And yeah, biggest thing is to avoid the stupid mistakes - turnovers and penalties.

Trail.Blazr 10-18-2013 04:03 PM

Re: A Case Against the Chiefs
 
The New Look Texans have to actually put up a W at this point before I would consider the notion that they could beat a buttercup. I give you the Rams as an example.. But I don't believe KC is a buttercup. This is a blue collar team that I believe plays within themselves and their coach has them playing well. surprising to be undefeated at this point, but by no means should they be overlooked. We have more to prove, so it's hard to buy into any hype that would suggest we get a break this week.


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