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Insideop 10-03-2013 10:27 PM

Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
I saw part of the game Stanford played against Washington St. and thought Hogan looked like a Luck clone. He looks like he has a pretty good arm and is mobile enough. Watched as he hit his TE in stride for about a 40+ yard TD. My question is, do you think he would be a good QB candidate for the Texans if they're looking for a QB next draft? I know they're sticking with Schaub for now but things can change. Hogan is a Jr this year and he could opt to stay for his Sr year like Luck, but, if he decides to come out, I think he could be someone who falls in the range where the Texans could pick (mid to late 1st rd). Thoughts?

WolverineFan 10-04-2013 01:18 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Insideop (Post 2221634)
I saw part of the game Stanford played against Washington St. and thought Hogan looked like a Luck clone. He looks like he has a pretty good arm and is mobile enough. Watched as he hit his TE in stride for about a 40+ yard TD. My question is, do you think he would be a good QB candidate for the Texans if they're looking for a QB next draft? I know they're sticking with Schaub for now but things can change. Hogan is a Jr this year and he could opt to stay for his Sr year like Luck, but, if he decides to come out, I think he could be someone who falls in the range where the Texans could pick (mid to late 1st rd). Thoughts?

Hogan is actually a redshirt sophomore. He's almost a lock to come back for a 4th year. 1) Because he needs more development and 2) QB is pretty deep this year.

I do think he's a great fit for the offense though. Stanford runs a very similar system to us. I'm a really big fan of his. He's nowhere near as far along as Luck was, but who is? Luck was the most developed college QB I've ever seen.

beerlover 10-04-2013 08:44 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Would defiantly go for both David Shaw (Stanford HC) & Kevin Hogan, Stanford QB. There were three QB's coming out of High School three years ago, now all three red shirt sophomores, considered franchise by Chip Kelly, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota & Kevin Hogan. All three are tremendous talents.

Watched a little of Hundley last night in narrow win against Utah & he looked very good, reminds me a little of RG3. These are viable options, when they come out is another question? Timing is everything. If Texans roll with Schaub & Kubiak another year, then cut them loose I could think of far worse things than bringing in a terrific College coach with his franchise QB.

Insideop 10-04-2013 08:56 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WolverineFan (Post 2221685)
Hogan is actually a redshirt sophomore. He's almost a lock to come back for a 4th year. 1) Because he needs more development and 2) QB is pretty deep this year.

I do think he's a great fit for the offense though. Stanford runs a very similar system to us. I'm a really big fan of his. He's nowhere near as far along as Luck was, but who is? Luck was the most developed college QB I've ever seen.

They had him listed as a Jr on their roster. I guess they just go by his academic standing. Too bad he probably won't come out. My thinking was he would've been there for the Texans in the 2014 draft but probably out of reach if he waits until 2015 to come out.

As for Luck, I watched him play at Stratford a few times and knew he was going to be special. Too bad he plays for the Colts. :(

Honoring Earl 34 10-04-2013 09:10 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by WolverineFan (Post 2221685)
Hogan is actually a redshirt sophomore. He's almost a lock to come back for a 4th year. 1) Because he needs more development and 2) QB is pretty deep this year.

I do think he's a great fit for the offense though. Stanford runs a very similar system to us. I'm a really big fan of his. He's nowhere near as far along as Luck was, but who is? Luck was the most developed college QB I've ever seen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by beerlover (Post 2221725)
Would defiantly go for both David Shaw (Stanford HC) & Kevin Hogan, Stanford QB. There were three QB's coming out of High School three years ago, now all three red shirt sophomores, considered franchise by Chip Kelly, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota & Kevin Hogan. All three are tremendous talents.

Watched a little of Hundley last night in narrow win against Utah & he looked very good, reminds me a little of RG3. These are viable options, when they come out is another question? Timing is everything. If Texans roll with Schaub & Kubiak another year, then cut them loose I could think of far worse things than bringing in a terrific College coach with his franchise QB.

I'm with Beerlover in that Schaub and Kubiak are a package . The next QB won't have to worry about fitting in Kube's system .

beerlover 10-04-2013 09:19 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Also impressed with UCLA secondary talent, Anthony Jefferson a big CB 6' plus 185 very good recover speed, length to breakup pass & plus hands. Junior will have to wait to see if he comes out, would compete in my mind with Justin Gilbert for 2nd rd. grade. But who stuck out to me was another Anthony, Anthony Barr Senior DE/OLB 6040 245 edge rusher with body lean/flexibility you look for would be a nice bookend to Mercilus. Looked explosive, maybe a sub 4.5 guy definitely a first round grade. :kitten:

Insideop 10-04-2013 09:40 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Honoring Earl 34 (Post 2221735)
I'm with Beerlover in that Schaub and Kubiak are a package . The next QB won't have to worry about fitting in Kube's system .

I don't see it this way and don't think Kubes and Schaub are tied at the hip. Kubes' "leash", if you will, is longer with McNair than Schaub's "leash" is with Kubes/Smith. If Schaub continues to mess up and lose games I don't think Kubes will wait until the end of the season to bench him. How long he'll wait, I don't know, but I don't think Schaub's "leash" is much longer. He has to fix his problems in this next game or we'll see Yates in the Rams game. Another "pick 6" with a loss and you can bank on it!

WolverineFan 10-04-2013 11:16 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by beerlover (Post 2221738)
Also impressed with UCLA secondary talent, Anthony Jefferson a big CB 6' plus 185 very good recover speed, length to breakup pass & plus hands. Junior will have to wait to see if he comes out, would compete in my mind with Justin Gilbert for 2nd rd. grade. But who stuck out to me was another Anthony, Anthony Barr Senior DE/OLB 6040 245 edge rusher with body lean/flexibility you look for would be a nice bookend to Mercilus. Looked explosive, maybe a sub 4.5 guy definitely a first round grade. :kitten:

Barr is almost a lock to go top 10. He's absolutely blown up the last 2 years.

Can't believe he was playing FB when Mora got there and he moved him to OLB and got these kind of results. Pretty incredible.

WolverineFan 10-04-2013 11:19 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Insideop (Post 2221731)
They had him listed as a Jr on their roster. I guess they just go by his academic standing. Too bad he probably won't come out. My thinking was he would've been there for the Texans in the 2014 draft but probably out of reach if he waits until 2015 to come out.

As for Luck, I watched him play at Stratford a few times and knew he was going to be special. Too bad he plays for the Colts. :(

Private schools like Stanford and Notre Dame always list their guys by academic standing, not football eligibility. Not sure why, but just something that I've noticed.

And yes, Luck is going to the equivalent of Manning to us for the next decade.

beerlover 10-04-2013 11:24 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Insideop (Post 2221748)
I don't see it this way and don't think Kubes and Schaub are tied at the hip. Kubes' "leash", if you will, is longer with McNair than Schaub's "leash" is with Kubes/Smith. If Schaub continues to mess up and lose games I don't think Kubes will wait until the end of the season to bench him. How long he'll wait, I don't know, but I don't think Schaub's "leash" is much longer. He has to fix his problems in this next game or we'll see Yates in the Rams game. Another "pick 6" with a loss and you can bank on it!

Clearly they are tied @ the hip because everyone else knows now across the entire country, only thing holding Texans back is QB position. Call it whatever you want but there is a definite bond that defies pure logic :choke:

TexansSeminole 10-05-2013 05:41 AM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by beerlover (Post 2221738)
Also impressed with UCLA secondary talent, Anthony Jefferson a big CB 6' plus 185 very good recover speed, length to breakup pass & plus hands. Junior will have to wait to see if he comes out, would compete in my mind with Justin Gilbert for 2nd rd. grade. But who stuck out to me was another Anthony, Anthony Barr Senior DE/OLB 6040 245 edge rusher with body lean/flexibility you look for would be a nice bookend to Mercilus. Looked explosive, maybe a sub 4.5 guy definitely a first round grade. :kitten:

I saw him play last night against Utah. He looked great getting off the ball. He was blowing past the LT pretty consistently.

Doppelganger 10-07-2013 04:25 PM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by beerlover (Post 2221725)
Would defiantly go for both David Shaw (Stanford HC) & Kevin Hogan, Stanford QB. There were three QB's coming out of High School three years ago, now all three red shirt sophomores, considered franchise by Chip Kelly, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota & Kevin Hogan. All three are tremendous talents.

Watched a little of Hundley last night in narrow win against Utah & he looked very good, reminds me a little of RG3. These are viable options, when they come out is another question? Timing is everything. If Texans roll with Schaub & Kubiak another year, then cut them loose I could think of far worse things than bringing in a terrific College coach with his franchise QB.

Here are my thoughts:

1. QBs that are seniors and MUST come out
Tajh Boyd, Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger, Stephen Morris, Derek Carr, AJ McCarron, David Fallas, Jeff Matthews, Logan Thomas.

Of this group, I would say Boyd and Murray are the only franchise type QBs. I think McCarron and Mettenberger could be good to above average QBs. The others grade out to me as backups or projects.

2. QBs near locks to come out
Teddy Bridgewater, Johnney Manziel

Both of these guys are likely top first rounders and thus likely to come out. I currently have Bridgewater in the franchise category and Manziel in the above average category.

3. QBs who may be in play for 2015

Brett Hundley, Kevin Hogan, Marcus Mariota, Travis Wilson, JW Walsh, Jeff Driskel, Braaxton Miller.

There are numerous high end QBs who could be coming into the draft in 2015. According to my math there are 3 franchise QBs in 2014. In contrast I have 4 franchise QBs in 2015 (Hundley, Hogan, Mariota, and Walsh.)

Based on who is around them, I expect one of Hundley, Hogan, or Mariota to declare for 14. I think Bridgewater will be the #1 QB off the board, the Hundley/Hogan/Mariota early declaration will be #2, Manziel #3 and then Boyd/Murray/McCarron group.

WolverineFan 10-07-2013 04:28 PM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Right now I would put cap the odds of them coming out at this....

Bridgewater - 100%
Manziel - 99%
Mariota - 50%
Hundley - 50%
Hogan - 20%

badboy 10-07-2013 04:52 PM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Doppelganger (Post 2224696)
Here are my thoughts:

1. QBs that are seniors and MUST come out
Tajh Boyd, Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger, Stephen Morris, Derek Carr, AJ McCarron, David Fallas, Jeff Matthews, Logan Thomas.

Of this group, I would say Boyd and Murray are the only franchise type QBs. I think McCarron and Mettenberger could be good to above average QBs. The others grade out to me as backups or projects.

2. QBs near locks to come out
Teddy Bridgewater, Johnney Manziel

Both of these guys are likely top first rounders and thus likely to come out. I currently have Bridgewater in the franchise category and Manziel in the above average category.

3. QBs who may be in play for 2015

Brett Hundley, Kevin Hogan, Marcus Mariota, Travis Wilson, JW Walsh, Jeff Driskel, Braaxton Miller.

There are numerous high end QBs who could be coming into the draft in 2015. According to my math there are 3 franchise QBs in 2014. In contrast I have 4 franchise QBs in 2015 (Hundley, Hogan, Mariota, and Walsh.)

Based on who is around them, I expect one of Hundley, Hogan, or Mariota to declare for 14. I think Bridgewater will be the #1 QB off the board, the Hundley/Hogan/Mariota early declaration will be #2, Manziel #3 and then Boyd/Murray/McCarron group.

Would you be willing to post which will be available to Texans in first and second rounds? Let's use #23 & 55 just for grins. I have Bridgewater, Boyd, Hundley and Mariota (if they come out) gone by #23. I think if only one of Hundley, Mariota comes out, Manziel will be gone also and maybe regardless. I think Murray gone before our second. McCarron & Mettenberger should be avail #55 but may be at #87. AJ is currently ranked #91 and if so, would be a steal imo.

Doppelganger 10-07-2013 09:11 PM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by badboy (Post 2224710)
Would you be willing to post which will be available to Texans in first and second rounds? Let's use #23 & 55 just for grins. I have Bridgewater, Boyd, Hundley and Mariota (if they come out) gone by #23. I think if only one of Hundley, Mariota comes out, Manziel will be gone also and maybe regardless. I think Murray gone before our second. McCarron & Mettenberger should be avail #55 but may be at #87. AJ is currently ranked #91 and if so, would be a steal imo.

I think the best way to answer this question is to look at history as a way to help us understand the future.

First, lets put together an arbitrary ranking:

1. Ranking
Bridgewater
Hundley/Mariotta/Hogan
Manziel
Boyd
Murray
McCarron
Metzenberger
Morris

2. Second, we must define the question for statistical query

1. How many QBs have been taken before pick #23?
2. How many QBs have been taken before pick #55?

3. We must determine how we will answer the questions
I propose we use a simple mean and 10 years worth of data in order to prevent skewing from over or under representation.

2013: 1 by 23, 2 by 55
2012: 4 by 23, 4 by 55
2011: 4 by 23, 6 by 55
2010: 1 by 23, 2 by 55
2009: 3 by 23, 4 by 55
2008: 2 by 23, 2 by 55
2007: 2 by 23, 5 by 55
2006: 3 by 23, 4 by 55
2005: 3 by 23, 3 by 55
2004: 4 by 23, 4 by 55

By using this information, I have calculated a mean of

2.7 QBs by 23, 3.6 by 55

If we round those numbers, we are left with on average, 3 QBs taken by pick 23 and 4 taken by pick 55.

Lets take a look at that ranking again.

Ranking
Bridgewater
Hundley/Mariotta/Hogan
Manziel


Boyd

Murray
McCarron
Metzenberger
Morris

If we look at that list again, according to average drafting, if the Texans were picking at 23, Bridgewater, Manziel, and Hundley/Mariotta/Hogan(one will likely come out early) will be off the board. The Texans could elect to take Boyd at 22 or opt for Murray, McCarron, Metzenberger, or Morris in the second.

We can reset our numbers, depending on where Houston is picking as the season continues and certainly once the draft order is official.

Insideop 10-08-2013 09:14 PM

Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Doppelganger (Post 2224847)
If we look at that list again, according to average drafting, if the Texans were picking at 23, Bridgewater, Manziel, and Hundley/Mariotta/Hogan(one will likely come out early) will be off the board. The Texans could elect to take Boyd at 22 or opt for Murray, McCarron, Metzenberger, or Morris in the second.

We can reset our numbers, depending on where Houston is picking as the season continues and certainly once the draft order is official.

With the way the Texans are playing now they're probably going to get a top 10 pick!

I do like your logic and thought process in this but at this stage of the season you might as well throw darts at the names on a board. Just too many variables and scenarios that can play out. Still, it's fun to speculate! :)


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