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-   -   Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=101244)

Texans_Chick 07-31-2013 02:34 PM

Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
A Q&A I did with Tom Gower on this year's Texans prediction:

Football Outsiders Almanac bullish on the Texans

Tons of stuff we didn't talk about but a nice taste of what is in this year's FOA.

Stemp 07-31-2013 02:52 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
I don't know why but I initially read that as "football outsiders bulls**t on the texans"

Texans_Chick 07-31-2013 03:17 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stemp (Post 2187169)
I don't know why but I initially read that as "football outsiders bulls**t on the texans"

I think that headline would get me in trouble.

In semi-related news, I hate writing headlines.

paycheck71 07-31-2013 04:10 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stemp (Post 2187169)
I don't know why but I initially read that as "football outsiders bulls**t on the texans"

That's exactly what I first read... LOL

Hervoyel 07-31-2013 04:15 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick (Post 2187187)
I think that headline would get me in trouble.

In semi-related news, I hate writing headlines.

Why would it get you in trouble. We bull***t on the Texans all the time around here :)

paycheck71 07-31-2013 05:13 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick (Post 2187187)
I think that headline would get me in trouble.

In semi-related news, I hate writing headlines.

What trouble? Aren't you doing Chronicle a favor these days by working for them for free?

76Texan 07-31-2013 05:16 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Thanks for the read, TC.

BTW, the poll on Keenum and Yates is interesting.

thunderkyss 07-31-2013 06:01 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
TC.... thanks. Somehow you always manage to ask the questions I would ask.

I found this interesting
Quote:

The Texans were right to play such a conservative personnel grouping so often, as they’ve struggled badly the past couple seasons when they’ve played “11.” In 2012, their DVOA in “12″ was 14.9%, compared to -27.5% in “11.” In 2011, when they had Jacoby Jones and thus better WR depth (at least in the games Andre Johnson played), they had a 17.6% DVOA in “12″ and -7.3% DVOA in “11.” DVOA includes an adjustment for game situation, so this suggests the Texans offense simply hasn’t worked as well when they’ve played with more wide receivers. This could reflect the quality of the wide receiver depth, the particular strengths of the offense, or a number of things it’s hard to tease out.”

EllisUnit 07-31-2013 06:03 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Glad to see we all werent just crazy saying Kubiak is slightly conservative :kitten:

drs23 07-31-2013 06:39 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EllisUnit (Post 2187264)
Glad to see we all werent just crazy saying Kubiak is slightly conservative :kitten:

What the hell do they know? Just generating page hits. :D :kitten:

Texans_Chick 07-31-2013 07:21 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by paycheck71 (Post 2187246)
What trouble? Aren't you doing Chronicle a favor these days by working for them for free?

You make a terrific point that is best for me to ignore.

I try to think of it as not a Chronicle thing and more as something I can give to fans who I love. Some people host big tailgates, I host a blog.

:texflag::texflag::texflag:

paycheck71 07-31-2013 07:28 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick (Post 2187310)
You make a terrific point that is best for me to ignore.

I try to think of it as not a Chronicle thing and more as something I can give to fans who I love. Some people host big tailgates, I host a blog.

:texflag::texflag::texflag:

And we all greatly appreciate it!

dc_txtech 07-31-2013 09:26 PM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Very good article. Definitely worth the click.

MEGA SWATT 08-01-2013 01:16 AM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Cool, thx!

Texans_Chick 08-01-2013 07:00 AM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EllisUnit (Post 2187264)
Glad to see we all werent just crazy saying Kubiak is slightly conservative :kitten:

Interestingly, the conclusion is that given the way the team is structured, such conservatism makes sense.

FWIW, this is part of the conclusion about the coaching staff that is included at the end of the chapter:

Quote:

It's a popular thing to claim the Texans need to "open up" or otherwise "diversify" their offense after their playoff failures the past two seasons. Yet detailed reviews of the team's play show a scheme that stresses defenses and punishes indiscipline, often with big plays. Gary Kubiak handles more of the pass game and Rick Dennison more of the run game and both do an excellent job of getting the most out of the talent they have. It will be up to well-regarded offensive line coach John Benton to help get the right side of the line in better shape this season.

thunderkyss 08-01-2013 09:30 AM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by EllisUnit (Post 2187264)
Glad to see we all werent just crazy saying Kubiak is slightly conservative :kitten:

Makes you wonder if there was really a problem. We still won 12 games during the regular season. We still managed to have one of the top offenses in the NFL, points as well as yards.

Maybe Kubiak knows this team better than we give him credit for & were he not as conservative, we wouldn't have won so many games.

I know people don't like the 3 yards & a cloud of dust offense. Personally, If we get a 12+ point lead, we should work on running the ball when the other team knows we're going to run the ball. I want to win the TOP, I don't want to give the ball to the other team.... ever.

Even without a lead, I want to run the ball & keep it away from Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, & Peyton Manning. As long as we aren't down by two scores with less than a qtr to play, I want to see that ground & pound against those guys.

But those long drawn out possessions need to end in points, 6 preferably.

Surreal McCoy 08-01-2013 09:46 AM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thunderkyss (Post 2187488)
...
Maybe Kubiak knows this team better than we give him credit for & were he not as conservative, we wouldn't have won so many games...

Don't! You're just encouraging him to run more 3rd down draws! :kitten:

Rey 08-01-2013 09:57 AM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thunderkyss (Post 2187488)
Makes you wonder if there was really a problem. We still won 12 games during the regular season. We still managed to have one of the top offenses in the NFL, points as well as yards.

Maybe something different could have helped us be THE TOP offense in the NFL.

The Pencil Neck 08-01-2013 09:59 AM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
I've said it before and I'll probably have to say it again but...

I prefer this conservative approach. I prefer winning by choking someone out than losing with big, flashy, grandiose plays. I've got no problem with a team that isn't afraid to punt and trust its defense to step up instead of having to flail around and pray for a big play to bail them out.

And it's not like we're a conservative team that wins squeaker after squeaker by the skin of our teeth, a team that keeps it close and tries to get some last second score to win. We dominated most of the games we won last year... even when we weren't playing all that well. To me, that's just some good damn strategy right there.

We have to play better down the stretch and we have to find a way to stop higher-caliber offenses and not get ourselves in out-of-hand situations against teams like the Patriots and Packers. But. This is a young team that is new to winning and it's in the process of developing a winning tradition and a winning identity. I'm cool with that. We just need to keep winning and keep getting better at it.

ObsiWan 08-01-2013 11:05 AM

Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck (Post 2187506)
I've said it before and I'll probably have to say it again but...

I prefer this conservative approach. I prefer winning by choking someone out than losing with big, flashy, grandiose plays. I've got no problem with a team that isn't afraid to punt and trust its defense to step up instead of having to flail around and pray for a big play to bail them out.

And it's not like we're a conservative team that wins squeaker after squeaker by the skin of our teeth, a team that keeps it close and tries to get some last second score to win. We dominated most of the games we won last year... even when we weren't playing all that well. To me, that's just some good damn strategy right there.

We have to play better down the stretch and we have to find a way to stop higher-caliber offenses and not get ourselves in out-of-hand situations against teams like the Patriots and Packers. But. This is a young team that is new to winning and it's in the process of developing a winning tradition and a winning identity. I'm cool with that. We just need to keep winning and keep getting better at it.

Co-signed.
Just win.

The aforementioned Patriots and Packers threw the ball around the yard. Neither made the Super Bowl last year. Arguably the best QB of this "age" (#18) who's known for his lofty passing stats was one-and-done in the playoffs last year.

Just do whatever the heck works against whoever the heck we're playing.
Just win.


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