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Heath Shuler 05-10-2013 06:46 AM

Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals

http://www.covers.com/articles/artic...?theArt=320153

Quote:

Atlantis sportsbook director Steve Mikkelson, renowned for being the first to release MLB season win totals each year, crunched the NFL numbers on his day off Wednesday and sat down with Covers to discuss some of the most interesting win totals on the board before they went live Thursday afternoon.

Toughest win totals to set – Kansas City Chiefs (6.5), Philadelphia Eagles (7.5) and Detroit Lions (7.5)

“For me, the toughest win totals to set were the Chiefs, Eagles and Lions because they all underachieved last year,” Mikkelson told Covers. “The Chiefs and Eagles have new coaches, with Andy Reid and Chip Kelly, so you’d like to think that would make a difference. But it’s an unknown.”

Biggest difference from last year – Seattle Seahawks (11)

“The Seahawks were 7.5 wins last year and now we have them at 11. We have some teams going up by three, like Denver and Indianapolis, but the Seahawks are the biggest jump. That defense is dominating and Russell Wilson played so well in his first year. Some people think they’re the best team in the NFL. Even though (the NFC West is) a tough division, you have to think of them as one of the best and we weren’t saying that last year.”

Highest season win total – Denver Broncos (12)

“It’s not really a case of me thinking they’re the absolute best team in football, but you look at that schedule and (the AFC West) division and I don’t know where they’re going to get those losses from. As long as (Peyton) Manning stays healthy, I don’t see a whole lot of losses for this team.”

Lowest season win total – Jacksonville Jaguars (4.5)

“Not really a surprise. It’s just a case of them not having a lot going for them,” says Mikkelson. “I’m not sold on the quarterback situation and I’m not sure if Blaine Gabbert can play. They had a nice draft, but is that really going transition them into being a strong team? Maurice Jones-Drew is back but how healthy is he going to be? They’re just a bad team and it’s tough to give them wins. I could have easily went with four but everyone likes to bet the low totals up and the high ones down.”

Quote:

Arizona Cardinals

Over 6 -110
Under 6 -120

Atlanta Falcons

Over 10 -135
Under 10 +105

Baltimore Ravens

Over 9.5 -120
Under 9.5 -110

Buffalo Bills

Over 5 -135
Under 5 +105

Carolina Panthers

Over 6.5 -130
Under 6.5 EVEN

Chicago Bears

Over 8.5 -145
Under +115

Cincinnati Bengals

Over 9 -115
Under 9 -115

Cleveland Browns

Over 5 +120
Under 5 -150

Dallas Cowboys

Over 8.5 -150
Under 8.5 +120

Denver Broncos

Over 12 -130
Under 12 EVEN

Detroit Lions

Over 7 -115
Under 7 -115

Green Bay Packers

Over 12 -115
Under 12 -115

Houston Texans

Over 11 -150
Under 11 +110

Indianapolis Colts

Over 8 -150
Under 8 +120

Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 4.5 -140
Under 4.5 +110

Kansas City Chiefs

Over 6.5 -130
Under 6.5 EVEN

Miami Dolphins

Over 7.5 -115
Under 7.5 -115

Minnesota Vikings

Over 7.5 -115
Under 7.5 -115

New England Patriots

Over 11.5 -140
Under 11.5 -140

New Orleans Saints

Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115

New York Giants

Over 9 -120
Under 9 -110

New York Jets

Over 7 -120
Under 7 -110

Oakland Raiders

Over 5.5 -115
Under 5.5 -115

Philadelphia Eagles

Over 6.5 -150
Under 6.5 +120

Pittsburgh Steelers

Over 10 -130
Under EVEN

San Diego Chargers

Over 7 EVEN
Under 7 -130

San Francisco 49ers

Over 11.5 -140
Under +110

Seattle Seahawks

Over 11 -140
Under 11 +110

St. Louis Rams

Over 8 -115
Under 8 -115

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over 6.5 -115
Under 6.5 -115

Tennessee Titans

Over 6.5 +110
Under 6.5 -140

Washington Redskins

Over 9 -110
Under 9 -120

It's way early and tough to find value, but I think the Ravens have a hard time getting to 10 wins.

TexansSeminole 05-10-2013 07:27 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Betting the over on the Eagles seems like a safe bet.

nero THE zero 05-10-2013 08:26 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Giants at 9 seems like prime picking for the OVER.

Colts at 8 seems like the right number. They were extremely lucky last season and I think they're very similar to the Titans coming into last season; a team that overachieved the previous season that some like to go out on a limb for. They'll finish right in that 7-9 win range.

Fred 05-10-2013 08:53 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nero THE zero (Post 2162868)
Giants at 9 seems like prime picking for the OVER.

Colts at 8 seems like the right number. They were extremely lucky last season and I think they're very similar to the Titans coming into last season; a team that overachieved.

Even in the years the Giants win the Superbowl they don't always pay off a regular season over 9 bet. Agree with you on Indy: I was hoping they would come out at something like 10.5 - then I was going to mortgage the house to the hilt and put everything on the under.

I would say the best bets are: Dal under 8.5, Jax under 4.5, KC over 6.5, and NO over 9.5.

Dutchrudder 05-10-2013 10:29 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 4.5 -140
Under 4.5 +110

Free money.

nero THE zero 05-11-2013 08:28 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred (Post 2162876)
Even in the years the Giants win the Superbowl they don't always pay off a regular season over 9 bet. Agree with you on Indy: I was hoping they would come out at something like 10.5 - then I was going to mortgage the house to the hilt and put everything on the under.

I would say the best bets are: Dal under 8.5, Jax under 4.5, KC over 6.5, and NO over 9.5.

Yes, I think these are both dead cinch locks.

Lucky 05-11-2013 08:49 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TexansSeminole (Post 2162858)
Betting the over on the Eagles seems like a safe bet.

I think the under 6.5. The Eagles are the last place team in a tough division with a 1st time NFL coach. It will take time for Kelly to figure out the league and what he can and can't do.

Vikings at 7.5 looks like a misprint. Definitely over. The Cards should go over 6 with a real QB. I like Tampa Bay and Carolina to go over 6.5 in what could be a free for all in the NFC south. I would never take an over on 12 (Pack and Broncos). And even 5.5 looks unattainable for a team as bad as the Raiders.

Heath Shuler 05-11-2013 02:41 PM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred (Post 2162876)

I would say the best bets are: Dal under 8.5, Jax under 4.5, KC over 6.5, and NO over 9.5.

I know it's crazy but I've totally sworn off the cowgirls; either for or against, they always seem to screw me either way.

Heath Shuler 05-11-2013 04:32 PM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder (Post 2162909)
Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 4.5 -140
Under 4.5 +110

Free money.

http://dementedmole.files.wordpress....f-the-week.jpg

Lock of the Year you say? :jam:

Fred 05-11-2013 07:04 PM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky (Post 2163262)
I think the under 6.5. The Eagles are the last place team in a tough division with a 1st time NFL coach. It will take time for Kelly to figure out the league and what he can and can't do.

Vikings at 7.5 looks like a misprint. Definitely over. The Cards should go over 6 with a real QB. I like Tampa Bay and Carolina to go over 6.5 in what could be a free for all in the NFC south. I would never take an over on 12 (Pack and Broncos). And even 5.5 looks unattainable for a team as bad as the Raiders.

Eagles - no idea. I don't think they are a lock for last - Jerrah's team is in that fight.

I think Vikings at 7.5 is reasonable; like Indy they are regressing in the win total. Vikings don't play the Texans, so no All-Pro performances by Ponder this season. Peterson is great, but will he be better?

How are the Cards suppose to get a real QB? I thought they had Carson Palmer. Hopefully Skeleton is still there. Maybe we can trade 'em Stephen McGee.

I agree with the never over on a 12. If they go 12-4 : great season! You push and win nothing. The odds of being at least 13-3 are too slim.

Yeah, Raiders may be fighting Jags for the 1st pick. Almost the inverse theory of don't pick over 12 would be don't pick under 4.5, but clearly the Jags (probably Raiders also) are looking to next years draft for a QB. If they are on pace to win 5 games or more the owner will not be pleased.

ObsiWan 05-12-2013 01:59 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder (Post 2162909)
Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 4.5 -140
Under 4.5 +110

Free money.

What do those + and - figures represent??

Maddict5 05-12-2013 07:40 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ObsiWan (Post 2163508)
What do those + and - figures represent??

the odds i.e.

for the jags if you bet $100 on the under you'll win $110 if they win 4 or less (meaning you'll get back 210 in total including your stake)

if you bet the jags over, you have to bet 140 to win 100 (-140). if the odds $100 to win $140

it means the over has been bet more heavily for the jags so the bookies want to make the under bet more attractive

76Texan 05-12-2013 08:21 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
These are original lines set by this casino; the first one to come out with NFL football odds for this season.
They are not influenced by any bet, because people can't bet until the house proposes the odds.

Odds proposed by other casinos that will soon come out may be influenced by these odds.

Heath Shuler 05-12-2013 08:22 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ObsiWan (Post 2163508)
What do those + and - figures represent??

The + is the underdog (or the less likely an event will happen)
The – is the favorite (or the more likely an event will happen)

For example:
+150 means if you bet $100 you win $150
-130 means you have to bet $130 to win $100




Edit: lol it looks like Maddict & 76 replied while I was; So you should have lots of info

76Texan 05-12-2013 08:26 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder (Post 2162909)
Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 4.5 -140
Under 4.5 +110

Free money.

In this example, the casino tells us they think it's easier for the Jags to win five game or more.
So if you want to bet on the Jags to win 5 games or more, you have to wager $140 to win $100.
If the Jags win 5 or more, you take him $100.
If the Jags win 4 or less, you lose $140

They also want the bettors to think that's there's less of a chance for the Jags to win only 4 games at the most.
Here, you bet $100 for a possible pay out of $110.
If the Jags win 4 or fewer, you win $110
If the Jags win 5 or more, you lose $100

Lucky 05-13-2013 06:49 AM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred (Post 2163447)
How are the Cards suppose to get a real QB? I thought they had Carson Palmer.

Below are the 2012 stats for Carson Palmer and an AFC playoff QB who will remain nameless. Tell me which one is a "real QB".

4018 yds - 61% - 22 TDs - 14 INTs
4008 yds - 64% - 22 TDs - 12 INTs

Speedy 05-13-2013 01:55 PM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lucky (Post 2163788)
Below are the 2012 stats for Carson Palmer and an AFC playoff QB who will remain nameless. Tell me which one is a "real QB".

4018 yds - 61% - 22 TDs - 14 INTs
4008 yds - 64% - 22 TDs - 12 INTs

And to take it further, here's the Super Bowl winning QB and a QB that didn't make the playoffs:
3817 yds - 59.7% - 22 TD - 10 INT
4903 yds - 65.6% - 28 TD - 19 INT

I know QB seems important to a lot of people, but there's much more to this game than who's under center.

eriadoc 05-14-2013 02:30 PM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Just FYI for anyone who is into these things, I bet the Texans to win the SB this weekend and got 15/1 at the MGM. Most places I saw were 10/1.

I bet them last year at I believe 12/1.

TexansSeminole 05-14-2013 03:21 PM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by eriadoc (Post 2164369)
Just FYI for anyone who is into these things, I bet the Texans to win the SB this weekend and got 15/1 at the MGM. Most places I saw were 10/1.

I bet them last year at I believe 12/1.

I bet them last year too. I had this odd run of two years in a row in which I told a friend who I thought would win that year. It was the Steelers and then the Saints, or vise versa. Ever since, I have betted on the winner pre-season and have been wrong. IF ONLY I HAD BET THOSE FIRST TWO YEARS!

SCOTTexans 05-20-2013 02:06 PM

Re: Atlantis Casino first book to release 2013 NFL season win totals
 
Cleveland Browns

Over 5 +120
Under 5 -150

With a schedule like theirs this is a easy bet.... but the house agrees


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