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Texans_Chick
04-29-2013, 10:24 PM
My latest post:

My 2013 Texans draft grades for fans who hate draft grades (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/04/2013-texans-draft-grades-for-fans-who-hate-draft-grades/)

The short version is that everybody gets an incomplete because these dudes haven't played real man football yet.

LZ didn't do draft grades but gave his first impressions too:

My thoughts and an overview of every Houston Texans 2013 draft pick (http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2013/04/my-thoughts-and-an-overview-of-every-houston-texans-2013-draft-pick/)

Brisco_County
04-29-2013, 10:31 PM
Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."

eriadoc
04-30-2013, 12:28 AM
There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.

ObsiWan
04-30-2013, 12:42 AM
Classic...

http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/files/2013/04/KUBIAK-DRAFTS-TIGHT-ENDS-TO-ANNOY-YOU.png

I'm sure we'll see this, in some form or other, many more times.

ObsiWan
04-30-2013, 12:45 AM
There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.
So are you saying you can do one without doing the other??

ArlingtonTexan
04-30-2013, 12:51 AM
The problem with draft grades in general is that they treat the actual event...the real player selection meeting as though its results are wrong based on the months of seclation. the event is not wrong the specualtion about the event and what teams could have accomplished is incorrect. If player x is graded as a y round playr, but goes in z round, he is z rounder not a y rounder.

powda
04-30-2013, 12:57 AM
Predraft is all about smoke screens, deception, and lies...after the draft we apply a value to it all like star and smiley stickers the kindergarten teacher used to pass out. You either think player x is going to be good or think it's a wasted opportunity on getting someone else.

I understand summarizing a team's draft as good or bad...but applying a letter grade to players who haven't suited up since january sounds a little silly unless someone out there's Miss Cleo.

I give this draft 1 smiley sticker and 5 extra minutes at recess.

eriadoc
04-30-2013, 01:50 AM
So are you saying you can do one without doing the other??

Grading the draft is really about grading their risk analysis. You won't know the outcome of the risk until later, but if they take a 99% proposition 100 times, the one failure doesn't invalidate the process.

Things to consider - is the risk of having to piece together a solution at ILB worth taking Trevardo Williams in the 4th round? Or Montgomery in the third? How does the risk of Da'Rick Rogers being a screw-up weigh against his outstanding physical talents vs. the need for a playmaker at the WR position on this team before the window closes? Or Montgomery's physical talent vs. character concerns?

Montgomery is interesting to think about in this manner. The Texans hit on a player that has first round talent in the third round. They had the stones to take him, despite the knocks on him from other teams. Whether he fails or succeeds as a player doesn't really affect the draft process. It's how he fails, if he does. If he fails because he ends up being not a very good football player, well, that's life in the NFL. It happens all the time. However, if he fails because of character concerns, then that was a crappy pick.

Another good draft day example is Amobi Ok0ye. He was a young player that had physical talent, smarts, and lots of room to improve. But could the team, at that point in their development, afford to take on a project with a first round pick? I say no, and that's why that was a terrible first round pick. That he failed, or at best became JAG, is a sideline to whether the pick was good or not. The pick, or the process, is also graded by what else was available at that point, how it fit the team's needs, how the prospect was graded, etc.

Obviously, we don't have access to 99% of the info that the Texans have, so it's all speculation from the fans anyway, but that's what we do as fans, because baseball season sucks. I just prefer to speculate and try to grade their risk analysis and draft process rather than the players. The players will be graded by their play on the field. I also recognize that other people probably don't think about this the same way I do, and that's fine. But they're wrong. :D

ObsiWan
04-30-2013, 03:12 AM
never mind....

powda
04-30-2013, 08:48 AM
A portion of these guys are cut in training camp. Depth for one team may be a starter for another. Injuries, coaching changes, scheme fits, a specific skill set in demand with a limited supply, etc. How does a player cut by one team who then plays great for another one grade for the drafting team? It's all fluid and a lot of it is subjective. Player x is a reach at the top of the second round but great value at the bottom of the second round? The team gets crucified for picking player x that early but had no chance in hell to get him in the 3rd so wtf?

"Value" is the most abused sentiment on draft weekend. About the only thing I know for certain is I dont want Charley freaking Casserly anywhere near the Texans draft room.

Thorn
04-30-2013, 09:22 AM
We've all been around long enough to know we probably won't know the full value of most of these players for a couple of years anyway. We all also know that doesn't take the fun out of assigning grades and opinions to the process. :)

The Pencil Neck
04-30-2013, 10:18 AM
We've all been around long enough to know we probably won't know the full value of most of these players for a couple of years anyway. We all also know that doesn't take the fun out of assigning grades and opinions to the process. :)

^^^ This.

Odds are that we get one first year starter out of this bunch and the 6th rounders might not even make the team.

Right now, all the toys are fresh and shiny so we might as well enjoy their potential and promise. :doot:

drs23
04-30-2013, 11:09 AM
Grading the draft is really about grading their risk analysis. You won't know the outcome of the risk until later, but if they take a 99% proposition 100 times, the one failure doesn't invalidate the process.

Things to consider - is the risk of having to piece together a solution at ILB worth taking Trevardo Williams in the 4th round? Or Montgomery in the third? How does the risk of Da'Rick Rogers being a screw-up weigh against his outstanding physical talents vs. the need for a playmaker at the WR position on this team before the window closes? Or Montgomery's physical talent vs. character concerns?

Montgomery is interesting to think about in this manner. The Texans hit on a player that has first round talent in the third round. They had the stones to take him, despite the knocks on him from other teams. Whether he fails or succeeds as a player doesn't really affect the draft process. It's how he fails, if he does. If he fails because he ends up being not a very good football player, well, that's life in the NFL. It happens all the time. However, if he fails because of character concerns, then that was a crappy pick.

Another good draft day example is Amobi Ok0ye. He was a young player that had physical talent, smarts, and lots of room to improve. But could the team, at that point in their development, afford to take on a project with a first round pick? I say no, and that's why that was a terrible first round pick. That he failed, or at best became JAG, is a sideline to whether the pick was good or not. The pick, or the process, is also graded by what else was available at that point, how it fit the team's needs, how the prospect was graded, etc.

Obviously, we don't have access to 99% of the info that the Texans have, so it's all speculation from the fans anyway, but that's what we do as fans, because baseball season sucks. I just prefer to speculate and try to grade their risk analysis and draft process rather than the players. The players will be graded by their play on the field. I also recognize that other people probably don't think about this the same way I do, and that's fine. But they're wrong. :D

:goodpost:

Yes, it does and yes, they are. :D

Texans_Chick
04-30-2013, 05:13 PM
There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.

They are two different exercises. I graded each player and at the top of the post, I gave a A+ smiley face star for the whole draft.

Both of the exercises are silly.

Draft grades are a fiction depending on so much stuff that hasn't happened and isn't a fixed future.

Charles Spencer may have been an awesome left tackle if he didn't get Ron Dayned.

Was that a bad pick because of a fluke injury?

You make your picks, and hope for the best. Putting letter grades on drafts is sort of silly but is great if you crave affirmation or get grumbly from what outsiders say.

For me, I really do like trying to figure out reasoning/fit but ultimately want these guys to have a clean start, removed from where they were drafted and how much or little money they make, and just assess them based on what they do as a Houston Texan.

Texans_Chick
04-30-2013, 05:14 PM
Classic...

http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/files/2013/04/KUBIAK-DRAFTS-TIGHT-ENDS-TO-ANNOY-YOU.png

I'm sure we'll see this, in some form or other, many more times.

I figured at some point, somebody would make it an avatar because there are certain pet issues that annoy people irrationally.

HJam72
04-30-2013, 05:28 PM
http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/files/2013/04/KUBIAK-DRAFTS-TIGHT-ENDS-TO-ANNOY-YOU.png


I knew it! :hairpull:

badboy
04-30-2013, 09:13 PM
My latest post:

My 2013 Texans draft grades for fans who hate draft grades (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2013/04/2013-texans-draft-grades-for-fans-who-hate-draft-grades/)

The short version is that everybody gets an incomplete because these dudes haven't played real man football yet.

LZ didn't do draft grades but gave his first impressions too:

My thoughts and an overview of every Houston Texans 2013 draft pick (http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2013/04/my-thoughts-and-an-overview-of-every-houston-texans-2013-draft-pick/)Going to disagree. At this point, all draftees are based on potential of how teams think they will translate to NFL. Draft grades are based on how folks think teams did evaluating players' college skills + where the players were drafted (value) based on known info. It is not a grade necessarily on how the player will play. If you say they cannot be graded as not playing yet then certain positions like CB, WR, LT or QB should be given only an incomplete for 3 years. How do you grade a QB like Aaron Rodgers who sits behind the starter?

Not attacking you Steph or Lance but why not allow folks to do what they want? It reminds me of those going into mock draft forum and then complain that folks should not do mocks.

eriadoc
04-30-2013, 09:31 PM
Not attacking you Steph or Lance but why not allow folks to do what they want? It reminds me of those going into mock draft forum and then complain that folks should not do mocks.

Because ...

Both of the exercises are silly.

There. :)

76Texan
04-30-2013, 09:42 PM
I don't grade a draft, but I don't think it's silly that others do.

Even if what they do is silly, it's silly not to let other people do their silly things for fun. :)

badboy
04-30-2013, 09:43 PM
I don't grade a draft, but I don't think it's silly that others do.

Even if what they do is silly, it's silly not to let other people do their silly things for fun. :)
That is just silly but exactly correct.

BullBlitz
04-30-2013, 09:53 PM
Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."

No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.

Texan_Bill
04-30-2013, 09:53 PM
"Draft Grades" are kinda BS..... Think about it, you're grading guys that have never played a down in the NFL.

Furthermore, there are guys like Johnny Harris (and of course LZ) that I have the utmost respect for, buried the "Duane Brown reach" and ripped DB after his rookie season.... Almost to the point of starting an on-air fight with "Kirby"....

"Let's Put the film on, Bro!!!"

Johnny Harris admits that Duane Brown is if not the best, close to the best LT's in the league today.

*******************

The point is, you never really know.

thunderkyss
04-30-2013, 10:24 PM
They are two different exercises. I graded each player and at the top of the post, I gave a A+ smiley face star for the whole draft.

Both of the exercises are silly.

Draft grades are a fiction depending on so much stuff that hasn't happened and isn't a fixed future.


I enjoyed the read, but I don't agree. If you bought a 1/2 ton Chevy for $35,000 do we have to wait till you put 250,000 miles on it to determine if it was a good buy? Or can we assess whether that was a prudent expenditure based on your current situation & what we know about the pick-up at the time of purchase? If you find out 18 months later that you bought a lemon, doesn't change the fact that the 1/2 ton either did or did not address your transportation needs.

That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team.

When the Broncos moved up to grab Cutler after he fell out of the top 10, that was a great move & Shanahan was lauded for it. Due to other circumstances not related to Cutler, it turned out that the team didn't get good enough, fast enough, so it really didn't matter. Doesn't change the fact that the Broncos made an excellent attempt at improving their team.

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.

The Pencil Neck
04-30-2013, 10:28 PM
I look at it like this, you really can't judge how productive a draft class or a player in the draft is going to be until their entire career is over. You can't even judge it a couple of years later, you have to wait until the entire thing has played out.

But at any particular time, you can project how good you think a player is going to do with a particular team. That's a combination of how good you think the player is AND how well they're going to fit in that team's system. I don't think there's anything wrong with that. It's like playing fantasy football and trying to guess which guys are going to be most productive over the course of a season.

There's a kind of arrogance in that, though. Because you're basically saying that you're better at judging how good a player is going to be than a professional team is and how good a player is going to fit into a particular team's system than the coaches and scouts for that team.

You can also try to guess whether a pick is a reach or not by whether you think that player was still going to be around at that team's next pick. BUT. If you think that a team reached for Player A, it means that you had a lower grade on him than the team did but the fact that one team had a higher grade than you did means that other teams might have had a higher grade than you did. It's more of an indictment against your ability to grade a player than it is an indictment of the team's ability to pick.

So.

It's fun to look at the draft like this and grade it. But until these guys complete their careers, there's no way to say whether this draft was any good or not.

Thorn
04-30-2013, 10:31 PM
I don't grade a draft, but I don't think it's silly that others do.

Even if what they do is silly, it's silly not to let other people do their silly things for fun. :)

Quit being silly. :)

beerlover
05-01-2013, 02:51 AM
results have to be measured by some metric, grades are just simple ones anyone can relate to. everyone seems impressed with this haul, this gives Texans front office a string of at least four consecutive above average graded drafts with results streaming each succeeding season, up to 12-4 this past season should be proof enough Texans are showing a lot of consistency & continuity year in and year out using draft as their primary talent pool.

Draft grades are incumbent on those who desire to pursue an interest in adding value to their fellow fan base in draft related items in a very personal & alternate methods to the machine over on Kirby. Maybe if more interesting, factual information could be shared with their fans, some of us would be content & save ourselves hundred of hours researching players who fit as Texans? I don't know it is what it is just plain silly :specnatz:

ObsiWan
05-01-2013, 05:30 AM
That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team?

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.

you're right, draft grades, like most other grades in life, should be based on some quantifiable, measurable, numeric metric. As you hinted at, when they actually figure out how to quantify the level of improvement then they'd be useful.

Right now Draft grades remind me too much of the results of beauty contests; much too subjective and entirely dependent upon what "the judges" were expecting to see.

unfortunately, all we've got that really counts are wins and losses and those may or may not be significantly influenced by your draft.

Texans_Chick
05-01-2013, 11:04 AM
No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.

Or, instead of grading draft picks based on very sketchy, incomplete info, why not just go, OK, let's see what the Texans are thinking, and wait and see.

My approach is, I want a clean slate for the players, and just see what they do on the field as NFL players.

Usually "draft grades" are really boneheads going, "Did the choices correspond to the imperfect information that draftniks have?"

Oh, and this is what I wrote about JJ Watt after the draft:

Welcome JJ Watt: The Most Texany Texan? (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/04/welcome-jj-watt-the-most-texany-texan/)

It's not a draft grade. It's just an examination of why the Texans may have chosen JJ Watt as opposed to alternatives. And when you look at the imperfect information that was out there, and the info that is just facts stuff (his combine numbers, his awards), you go, yup, I really like this pick a lot.

Given that Wade compared him to Phil Hansen suggests that even he didn't know what was possible.

Texans_Chick
05-01-2013, 11:10 AM
I enjoyed the read, but I don't agree. If you bought a 1/2 ton Chevy for $35,000 do we have to wait till you put 250,000 miles on it to determine if it was a good buy? Or can we assess whether that was a prudent expenditure based on your current situation & what we know about the pick-up at the time of purchase? If you find out 18 months later that you bought a lemon, doesn't change the fact that the 1/2 ton either did or did not address your transportation needs.

That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team.

When the Broncos moved up to grab Cutler after he fell out of the top 10, that was a great move & Shanahan was lauded for it. Due to other circumstances not related to Cutler, it turned out that the team didn't get good enough, fast enough, so it really didn't matter. Doesn't change the fact that the Broncos made an excellent attempt at improving their team.

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.

You mean like this?

http://misterirrelevant.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/oc.jpg

The proof is on the field. Assessments in the meantime, with letter grades and nonsense is just going, "Hey look, I know this stuff because I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night."

Draft grades are all over the place, there's no penalty if bloviators are wrong.

Texans_Chick
05-01-2013, 11:13 AM
Going to disagree. At this point, all draftees are based on potential of how teams think they will translate to NFL. Draft grades are based on how folks think teams did evaluating players' college skills + where the players were drafted (value) based on known info. It is not a grade necessarily on how the player will play. If you say they cannot be graded as not playing yet then certain positions like CB, WR, LT or QB should be given only an incomplete for 3 years. How do you grade a QB like Aaron Rodgers who sits behind the starter?

Not attacking you Steph or Lance but why not allow folks to do what they want? It reminds me of those going into mock draft forum and then complain that folks should not do mocks.

Not stopping you for doing whatever. Go for it.

But it is perfectly ok to say that actual grades on drafts before the season is usually a reflection of how closely the drafts comport to general draftnik views and less to what will be seen on the field, and that the draft grades are usually VERY VERY wrong for a variety of reasons.

I prefer just looking at the potential for fit, and then going, alrighty then, I either get this pick or I don't. But acknowledging that you have to see it on the field.

Brisco_County
05-01-2013, 01:35 PM
No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.

That's exactly my point, which is why draft grades are valueless.


Or, instead of grading draft picks based on very sketchy, incomplete info, why not just go, OK, let's see what the Texans are thinking, and wait and see.

My approach is, I want a clean slate for the players, and just see what they do on the field as NFL players.

Usually "draft grades" are really boneheads going, "Did the choices correspond to the imperfect information that draftniks have?"
Oh, and this is what I wrote about JJ Watt after the draft:

Welcome JJ Watt: The Most Texany Texan? (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/04/welcome-jj-watt-the-most-texany-texan/)

It's not a draft grade. It's just an examination of why the Texans may have chosen JJ Watt as opposed to alternatives. And when you look at the imperfect information that was out there, and the info that is just facts stuff (his combine numbers, his awards), you go, yup, I really like this pick a lot.

Given that Wade compared him to Phil Hansen suggests that even he didn't know what was possible.

Draft grades exist to protect the perceived credibility of the draftniks when the teams contradict their sage advice. If they were interested in establishing real credibility, they would do follow-up grades one year later.

badboy
05-01-2013, 04:05 PM
Not stopping you for doing whatever. Go for it.

But it is perfectly ok to say that actual grades on drafts before the season is usually a reflection of how closely the drafts comport to general draftnik views and less to what will be seen on the field, and that the draft grades are usually VERY VERY wrong for a variety of reasons.

I prefer just looking at the potential for fit, and then going, alrighty then, I either get this pick or I don't. But acknowledging that you have to see it on the field.Good interaction! I again disagree as many of us watch the college player on the field, bowls and combine. Not by any imagination saying I or any of my draft nuts er nik friends are as good or better than teams. We only have the results of the players our team select to go by. For example, I wanted either Hankins in first or Brandon Williams in third for our NT. We will never know if either would have been better than Hopkins or Swearinger + if we had drafted Hankins, we would have had to draft WR in second so evaluation is difficult if not impossible as not apples to apples.

My position is those who want to offer grades, go for it. Millions watch those on NFL Network and ESPN do just that. Thousands listen to radio guys who watch less college games than I do. An opinion is just that, whether it is by a guy like me or an NFL scout. His opinion carries more weight for obvious reasons but his can be wrong and mine be right. How many NFL teams let Rodgers sit in the green room or Foster go undrafted?

True it is that none have played an NFL down but would you rather have Eric Fisher or our Quisenberry? Based on "grades" we know that answer. Yes Quissy could become all pro and Fisher could fizzle, but I take that chance.

Finally you say "go for it" but at post #28 you say draft graders are boneheads?

drs23
05-01-2013, 06:47 PM
Finally you say "go for it" but at post #28 you say draft graders are boneheads?

Simple translation tells me TC is saying "go for being a bonehead".


:D

Texans_Chick
05-01-2013, 07:49 PM
Finally you say "go for it" but at post #28 you say draft graders are boneheads?

In America, you have an inalienable right to refer to a group of people as boneheads or be a bonehead as long as you do not violate local, state, or federal laws....or message board rules. :kitten:

My reaction to the draft grade stuff was mostly in response to my old editors going, "give us letter grades for the Texans draft so we can put together a draft grade post." And me going, well, this is sort of a dumb exercise because nobody knows how these college kids are going to play on the next level with these particular teams, not even the smartest draftniks in the world.

Everybody gets it wrong. And there's no penalty if you say the Texans will rue the day they drafted the pizza boy JJ Watt other than embarrassment if people bust you on it.

The letter grades = dumb.

Giving your early thoughts on things based on what can be known at a particular time is cool and trying to find more information great, as long as you don't fall in love with your oh-too-early opinion or don't recognize the limitations of giving opinions at this time with the information that is available.

thunderkyss
05-01-2013, 09:04 PM
Stop........ can't say that Andre is the best.... information is incomplete, he hasn't played next season yet.

Can't say the Texans are the best team in the AFC South... they gotta play it out.

Can't say Kubiak is the worst coach in the NFL..... surely there will be a worst (worster??) coach some time in the future.

Don't make no sense to grade any of this until the end of time & after the final judgement (if there is such a thing).

Forget everything that happened before today, it don't matter. Incomplete information.

rmartin65
05-01-2013, 09:12 PM
.... surely there will be a worst (worster??) ...


worse

Texans_Chick
05-02-2013, 12:09 PM
Stop........ can't say that Andre is the best.... information is incomplete, he hasn't played next season yet.

Can't say the Texans are the best team in the AFC South... they gotta play it out.

Can't say Kubiak is the worst coach in the NFL..... surely there will be a worst (worster??) coach some time in the future.

Don't make no sense to grade any of this until the end of time & after the final judgement (if there is such a thing).

Forget everything that happened before today, it don't matter. Incomplete information.

Why don't we give a Super Bowl trophy to the team that has the best off-season? If you actually look at pre-season predictions by *experts*, most of them are wildly wrong. One year, Peter King had the worst preseason predictions of media members who made predictions.

Make your predictions. Just don't pretend they mean anything. Why they play the games.

And for those who have track records, actually playing NFL football like Andre Johnson, your assessment may likely be more rational than judging guys who play in different systems on a lower level and not with the fit they will have in their new teams.

And as for people who say that Kubiak is the worst coach in the NFL, typically that doesn't happen to guys who win 12 regular season games. Or gets into the playoffs with a backup, backup low round pick rookie quarterback.

You can make your assessments based on facts. But putting letter grades on things is sort of juvenile, no? It is done because readers like affirmation or anger about grades, and editors give readers what they want.

Rey
05-02-2013, 12:25 PM
Make your predictions. Just don't pretend they mean anything. Why they play the games.


You can make your assessments based on facts. But putting letter grades on things is sort of juvenile, no? It is done because readers like affirmation or anger about grades, and editors give readers what they want.

I don't get your point on this.

No predictions mean anything. Record predictions...Stat predictions...game by game predictions...

Of course they have to play the games. Who thinks that they can make predictions and the games don't have to be played?

JMO, but complaining about draft grades is kinda of silly. It's just a projection. Does it really need to be said that a draft grade isn't the be all end all and doesn't write a players legacy in stone?

Draft grades and predictions are made because people like to talk and discuss football. Do people get mad or like to be affirmed in their thinking? Sure. But that can be said about any area of life.

The Pencil Neck
05-02-2013, 12:35 PM
You can make your assessments based on facts. But putting letter grades on things is sort of juvenile, no? It is done because readers like affirmation or anger about grades, and editors give readers what they want.

I guess that's one way to look at it.

But you can also look at it like this.

All these guys exist to give their opinions on football. Their job is to look at the teams and to say, "Hey, I think this team did pretty good with this pick but not so good with that pick." Putting a letter grade on it is the same thing as a critic putting a "star grade" on a movie.

It doesn't matter one way or another in reality. Roger Ebert not liking a movie didn't make it a bad movie and it didn't make that movie make more or less money in the long run. Because whether Roger Ebert liked a movie or not didn't mean anything.

It's the same with draft grades. They don't mean anything. But for a fan who doesn't get the chance to break down as much film as the Experts are supposed to or have the insights into the professional game the Experts are supposed to have, it gives them an early way to gauge how their draft went and to compare how the "experts" feel about their team's draft vs. other teams.

The fact that these grades are just a reflection of different people's opinions doesn't bother me. And I'm not sure why it seems to bother you.

I think everyone recognizes that the draft can't really be graded until the careers of the guys picked are nearing completion.

Rey
05-02-2013, 12:38 PM
I think everyone recognizes that the draft can't really be graded until the careers of the guys picked are nearing completion.

Exactly. I don't get the beef.

It's just a prediction/projection based on opinion. It's just talk.

Hence the reason why everyone's grades and predictions are different.

beerlover
05-02-2013, 02:12 PM
Exactly. I don't get the beef.

It's just a prediction/projection based on opinion. It's just talk.

Hence the reason why everyone's grades and predictions are different.

Exactly. Thought that was really this forum primary function, to publicly state ones opinion. :kitten:

Dutchrudder
05-02-2013, 02:22 PM
It's like she's trying to be different and contradicting the norm because she doesn't want to be mainstream...

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/27746206.jpg

Double Barrel
05-02-2013, 06:17 PM
Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."

yep, along with reports that Houston fans booed the JJ pick at many draft parties because they are ignorant dumba...errr...uninformed.

I usually avoid any and all draft talk because even the so-called "experts" seem to be shooting in the dark and talking out of their asses most of the time. I don't mean the average fan, but rather all the talking heads on tv and radio. But most of these guys act like they know it all.

Wait to see how these players do in the NFL before evaluating any of them. That's the only way to have a truly educated opinion about specific drafts.

But I get why folks do it. Off-season is long and boring and it's something to keep your head in football. I don't have a problem with it, but I don't put much merit in the opinions at the same time.

Texans_Chick
05-02-2013, 06:23 PM
The fact that these grades are just a reflection of different people's opinions doesn't bother me. And I'm not sure why it seems to bother you.

I think everyone recognizes that the draft can't really be graded until the careers of the guys picked are nearing completion.

I'm not irate about this stuff. It doesn't BOTHER me like political stuff I'd rather not talk about bothers me.

I just think grades are sort of silly because they are usually wrong and yet people treat them like they mean something.

So I'm just acknowledging the extreme lack of information for making an informed analysis on this subject by giving smiley face stars and silly grades to drafts instead of letter grades.

Personally, I would prefer the focus to be on trying to find out more about the players, and waiting and seeing, and less about judging them before they have done anything.

Yes, predictions, and analysis and people coming out with 2014 mock drafts and stuff is all just blathering until there is something real to talk about.

But as an aside....

I do get concerned that sometimes fans get overly wed to pre-draft assessments of players. Like they almost would rather be right than see a guy do something different than their assessment.

Maybe that is just something I see a lot from blog comments. And sometimes from message board comments. Where a fan will crush a guy before he's had a chance to do much of anything. And then come back long after, and go, man I was wrong on that guy. Or maybe never come around on a guy. Or the total opposite.

From a psychology stand point, often our first impressions are ones that we want to hold on to, even when evidence comes around that flies in the face of it because as humans we want certainty on things that are inherently uncertain.

A good article on this subject in general in the New Yorker Magazine recently (http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/04/why-we-need-answers.html):

The human mind is incredibly averse to uncertainty and ambiguity; from an early age, we respond to uncertainty or lack of clarity by spontaneously generating plausible explanations. What’s more, we hold on to these invented explanations as having intrinsic value of their own. Once we have them, we don’t like to let them go.

In 1972, the psychologist Jerome Kagan posited that uncertainty resolution was one of the foremost determinants of our behavior. When we can’t immediately gratify our desire to know, we become highly motivated to reach a concrete explanation. That motivation, in Kagan’s conception, lies at the heart of most other common motives: achievement, affiliation, power, and the like. We want to eliminate the distress of the unknown. We want, in other words, to achieve “cognitive closure.” This term was coined by the social psychologist Arie Kruglanski, who eventually defined it as “individuals’ desire for a firm answer to a question and an aversion toward ambiguity,” a drive for certainty in the face of a less than certain world. When faced with heightened ambiguity and a lack of clear-cut answers, we need to know—and as quickly as possible.

...
It’s a self-reinforcing loop: we search energetically, but once we’ve seized onto an idea we remain crystallized at that point. And if we’ve externally committed ourselves to our position by tweeting or posting or speaking? We crystallize our judgment all the more, so as not to appear inconsistent. It’s why false rumors start—and why they die such hard deaths.



I still have one blog commenter who is still crushing players who objectively everybody suggests are above average to excellent players. (He is still mad about the VY thing, so maybe that's its own thing).

thunderkyss
05-02-2013, 06:50 PM
Make your predictions. Just don't pretend they mean anything. Why they play the games.



I think the problem is when people think they mean way more than what they do mean & base their opinions based on that.

No one thinks an A+ draft ranking means that a player is going to the HOF. At this point (because the 3 year grade is different, that grade takes into account how the selected players performed in the NFL) the grade simply means someone did a good job putting square pegs in square holes, round pegs in round holes. Whether you agree with it or not, you can look back & trend the "reputable" graders & see the "good" teams generally get good draft grades, the "bad" teams usually don't.

Some teams draft well, some teams don't. That can not be denied.

thunderkyss
05-02-2013, 07:17 PM
Wait to see how these players do in the NFL before evaluating any of them. That's the only way to have a truly educated opinion about specific drafts.


Every college in America scouts the highschool ranks & grade every player from every major highschool. Before the season is over, they will have each player ranked, 1 to whatever it takes & will do their best to go get the ones they think are the best of the bunch.

Every NFL team does the same with the college ranks. They grade college players who never played an NFL snap & rank them top to bottom.

Is there anything wrong with that?

We don't get to see those lists, for obvious reasons. But it happens, year in & year out.

If a team were able to select 7 players that were in their top 10, did they have a good draft?

If a team were able to select 7 players that were in their top 20, would that be a good draft?

What about 7 of their top 50?

Or should they just be happy they got 7 shiny new players & be done with it?

As stated, we don't get to see these rankings, but we get to see the rankings of at least half a dozen reputable sources. An educated fan should be able to factor in a degree of inaccuracy ( since the reputable rankings are generally applied to all teams) and be able to form a working opinion of the result of a particular draft.

If you were McNair, how would you determine if you're getting your money's worth & not a set of new Emperor dregs?

eriadoc
05-02-2013, 07:30 PM
But I get why folks do it. Off-season is long and boring and it's something to keep your head in football. I don't have a problem with it, but I don't put much merit in the opinions at the same time.

That is far too measured and respectful an opinion to give in this thread. People prefer having their pastimes referred to as silly. ;)