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awc713
04-26-2013, 03:59 PM
if theres a similar thread already started, feel free to shut it down.

i was wondering what people are expecting from hopkins in year 1.

anybody have projections/ guesses as to the stats we should expect from him?

i'm gonna say 5 touchdowns, 650 yards.

with walter gone and devier still recovering, it looks like hopkins will be able to get a good amount of PT...though this has been rare, recently, for rookie WRs...

too high? too low? whats your guess/ explanation?

The Pencil Neck
04-26-2013, 04:25 PM
if theres a similar thread already started, feel free to shut it down.

i was wondering what people are expecting from hopkins in year 1.

anybody have projections/ guesses as to the stats we should expect from him?

i'm gonna say 5 touchdowns, 650 yards.

with walter gone and devier still recovering, it looks like hopkins will be able to get a good amount of PT...though this has been rare, recently, for rookie WRs...

too high? too low? whats your guess/ explanation?

I'm expecting him to step in and take KW's spot. But more importantly, I'm expecting him to be a SERIOUS upgrade over KW. I'm actually expecting him to be similar to KW during KW's best season.

So I'm expecting 55 catches, 800+ yards, and 8 TDs.

eriadoc
04-26-2013, 04:50 PM
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?

Rey
04-26-2013, 04:53 PM
I'm expecting him to step in and take KW's spot. But more importantly, I'm expecting him to be a SERIOUS upgrade over KW. I'm actually expecting him to be similar to KW during KW's best season.

So I'm expecting 55 catches, 800+ yards, and 8 TDs.

Man...Those are lofty expectations...

I gotta think about this...

awc713
04-26-2013, 04:53 PM
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?

i really dont know much about Hopkins other than he has huge hands, has a big frame...i think he'll be clutch on 3rd downs, and hopefully in the red zone (why i have so many touchdowns for a rookie WR)

as far as comparing him to other players...i was hoping other people could come in this forum and educate us on hopkins, what to expect....didnt watch clemson football at all, so i dont really know....just saying it looks like the opportunity is going to be given for him to succeed

TEXANRED
04-26-2013, 04:56 PM
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.

The Pencil Neck
04-26-2013, 04:57 PM
Well, he's been compared to Reggie Wayne quite a bit. Reggie Wayne got 27 catches for 345 yards and 0 TDs his rookie year. Who are you comparing him to? What kind of stats do most rookie WRs that aren't blue chip prospects get?

He's also been compared to Roddy White. In Roddy White's rookie year he got 29 catches for 446 yards and 3 TDs.

BUT.

You've got to look at the context. Roddy White was on a run-first Mike Vick squad that threw for about 2400 yards total and where Alge Crumpler led all receivers with 65 receptions and 877 yards.

With Reggie Wayne, he was the 3rd option behind Marvin Harrison who had 109 catches and 1524 yards and Marcus Pollard who had 47 catches and 739 yards.

So... yeah. You're right. That's a better way to look at it.

So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.

The Pencil Neck
04-26-2013, 04:57 PM
Man...Those are lofty expectations...

I gotta think about this...

Yeah. Ignore me. That was the draft excitement posting.

awc713
04-26-2013, 04:59 PM
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.

only thing is....martin seems more like a slot receiver whereas hopkins has the body of a #2...? plus we have to replace KW, who was in a lot of blocking plays...

is hopkins good at blocking?

Vance87
04-26-2013, 04:59 PM
As long as he helps us win a championship.

TEXANRED
04-26-2013, 05:04 PM
only thing is....martin seems more like a slot receiver whereas hopkins has the body of a #2...? plus we have to replace KW, who was in a lot of blocking plays...

is hopkins good at blocking?

Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.

Vance87
04-26-2013, 05:06 PM
Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.

As of right now he is #4 on the depth chart, it won't take much to surpass Jean though.

The Pencil Neck
04-26-2013, 05:08 PM
I expect Hopkins to be KW's replacement and be the #2 by the opener. I expect Martin to continue to be our Slot guy and Jean to be AJ's backup.

DX-TEX
04-26-2013, 05:12 PM
:trophy:

Anything else = bum status

Big Lou
04-26-2013, 05:14 PM
Unless Hopkins has just a phenom of a camp and preseason and demonstrates total comprehension of the playbook IMO Martin will begin the season as the 2 solely based on experience and this will be his second year in the system. This is not to say that Hopkins claims the 2 at some point this season though.

I just can't see Martin as the starter at the #2 spot, he's too small to block. I think Lestar starts over Martin regardless of what the depth chart on the mothership shows, but I have a feeling Nuk is the starter.

Wolf6151
04-26-2013, 05:16 PM
I expect a good season where he get's eased into the game slowly, 30-35 catches and 350-400 yds.


If your LeStar Jean you just saw your job get put in serious jeopardy.

eriadoc
04-26-2013, 05:19 PM
i really dont know much about Hopkins other than he has huge hands, has a big frame...i think he'll be clutch on 3rd downs, and hopefully in the red zone (why i have so many touchdowns for a rookie WR)

as far as comparing him to other players...i was hoping other people could come in this forum and educate us on hopkins, what to expect....didnt watch clemson football at all, so i dont really know....just saying it looks like the opportunity is going to be given for him to succeed

I think he'll get a chance to succeed, but it'll be measured. It's not like the Texans chose a blue chipper that they'll go out of their way to feed the ball. Hell, AJ was a blue chip prospect and he got 66 catches for 976 yards his rookie season. And his career high in TDs is 9, with 8 three other times. We got one post saying Hopkins needs to come in as a rookie and put up numbers just short of AJ's rookie year.

Just for perspective, guys that were drafted 20 or lower (arbitrary number, but later in the first round) recently:

2012: Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick (#33 overall)
2011: Jon Baldwin
2010: Demaryious Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

So let's shift the analysis just a bit. How many TARGETS do you think Hopkins will get? In their rookie years, the above players put up:

Wright: 64-626-4 (104 targets)
Jenkins: 0-0-0 (0)
Quick: 11-156-2 (28)
Baldwin: 21-254-1 (52)
Thomas: 22-283-2 (39)
Bryant: 45-561-6 (72)
Harvin: 60-790-6 (75)
Nicks: 47-790-6 (75)
Britt: 42-701-3 (75)

So do you think Hopkins is going to get targeted 70-something times, or closer to 30-40?

Walter got targeted 68 times last year. He had 41 catches for 518 yards, 2 TDs, 12.6 avg. If you think Hopkins takes every one of Walter's targets, as a rookie, you should probably realistically expect similar numbers.

The TDs are just a pipe dream. This team doesn't throw a lot of TDs to any given WR.

eriadoc
04-26-2013, 05:24 PM
So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.

I was typing up my big long post while you posted this. I think those are reasonable stats to hope for, but I kind of doubt the TDs. My only real expectation for Hopkins this year is to see good things when he does touch the ball. I doubt he'll see 50 targets, much less 70. Kubiak won't likely put that big a load on a rookie WR. JMO.

ATXtexanfan
04-26-2013, 06:39 PM
First downs

ArlingtonTexan
04-26-2013, 06:52 PM
I think he'll get a chance to succeed, but it'll be measured. It's not like the Texans chose a blue chipper that they'll go out of their way to feed the ball. Hell, AJ was a blue chip prospect and he got 66 catches for 976 yards his rookie season. And his career high in TDs is 9, with 8 three other times. We got one post saying Hopkins needs to come in as a rookie and put up numbers just short of AJ's rookie year.

Just for perspective, guys that were drafted 20 or lower (arbitrary number, but later in the first round) recently:

2012: Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick (#33 overall)
2011: Jon Baldwin
2010: Demaryious Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

So let's shift the analysis just a bit. How many TARGETS do you think Hopkins will get? In their rookie years, the above players put up:

Wright: 64-626-4 (104 targets)
Jenkins: 0-0-0 (0)
Quick: 11-156-2 (28)
Baldwin: 21-254-1 (52)
Thomas: 22-283-2 (39)
Bryant: 45-561-6 (72)
Harvin: 60-790-6 (75)
Nicks: 47-790-6 (75)
Britt: 42-701-3 (75)

So do you think Hopkins is going to get targeted 70-something times, or closer to 30-40?

Walter got targeted 68 times last year. He had 41 catches for 518 yards, 2 TDs, 12.6 avg. If you think Hopkins takes every one of Walter's targets, as a rookie, you should probably realistically expect similar numbers.

The TDs are just a pipe dream. This team doesn't throw a lot of TDs to any given WR.

68 targets is silly low for a guy with the snaps that Walter got. 80 targets would be 5 a game and I think that is a realistically low if anything.

Thorn
04-26-2013, 06:54 PM
Starts
Doesn't do to many stupid rookie mistakes
Takes some pressure off AJ
Solidifies his position as #2

76Texan
05-11-2013, 08:54 AM
Between 25-30 catches, 325-390 yards, 4 TD's and starts the season off behind Martin on the depth chart.

He's also been compared to Roddy White. In Roddy White's rookie year he got 29 catches for 446 yards and 3 TDs.

BUT.

You've got to look at the context. Roddy White was on a run-first Mike Vick squad that threw for about 2400 yards total and where Alge Crumpler led all receivers with 65 receptions and 877 yards.

With Reggie Wayne, he was the 3rd option behind Marvin Harrison who had 109 catches and 1524 yards and Marcus Pollard who had 47 catches and 739 yards.

So... yeah. You're right. That's a better way to look at it.

So, I'll revise my estimate down to about 35 catches for 525 yards and 5 TDs.

I expect a good season where he get's eased into the game slowly, 30-35 catches and 350-400 yds.


If your LeStar Jean you just saw your job get put in serious jeopardy.
Ok, so I projected low 30s for Hopkins to TPN's projection of 35, and he thinks I might a little bitter because the Texans drafted him?
LOL!

Furthermore, my projection calls for a healthy squad (AJ, OD, Graham, Foster) along with Jean and Martin showing a normal progression.
It also called for Posey to play 8 games at least at last year level.
If he can't make it back then the Texans need to sign a veteran to take his place.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 09:04 AM
What I didn't expand is that I also expect the defense to get back to the level of play that the general fan base hope for.
I expect the ST play to improve with Lechler, more consistency in the return game (fewer mistakes, not necessarily more yardage), better coverage due to more speed with the younger guys.
I also expect a better run game with Jones in the fold and improvement on the right side of the line.
All this (and no OT game) add up to Schaub not having to pass the ball as much as he did in the early years.

rmartin65
05-11-2013, 09:09 AM
I will say 45 catches for around 575 yards and 5 TDs.

ObsiWan
05-11-2013, 09:24 AM
Ok, so I projected low 30s for Hopkins to TPN's projection of 35, and he thinks I might a little bitter because the Texans drafted him?
LOL!

Furthermore, my projection calls for a healthy squad (AJ, OD, Graham, Foster) along with Jean and Martin showing a normal progression.
It also called for Posey to play 8 games at least at last year level.
If he can't make it back then the Texans need to sign a veteran to take his place.
This statement prompted a question I'd like to pose to the gang here: Suppose Hopkins performs up to and beyond K.W. level (on one of his better years) and at the time of Posey's time to return - say game 6 or 8 or whenever - and has 35-40 catches for 5 or 6 TDs and is making those move the chains catches we expect from the #2. Question is this: What role does Posey play in this scenario? I mean, A.J., O.D., and Foster are gonna be targeted and now Hopkins is sucking up what's left and making the most of them. Where does that leave Posey?

infantrycak
05-11-2013, 09:31 AM
Furthermore, my projection calls for a healthy squad (AJ, OD, Graham, Foster) along with Jean and Martin showing a normal progression.

What is the normal progression for 3rd year players who caught 6 balls on 12 targets and 2nd year players who caught 10 balls on 27 targets?

It also called for Posey to play 8 games at least at last year level.

Man that would be awesome. 8 games at last year's level. I am sure those 4 receptions will cut deeply into the production of Hopkins and the other receiving options.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 09:35 AM
This statement prompted a question I'd like to pose to the gang here: Suppose Hopkins performs up to and beyond K.W. level (on one of his better years) and at the time of Posey's time to return - say game 6 or 8 or whenever - and has 35-40 catches for 5 or 6 TDs and is making those move the chains catches we expect from the #2. Question is this: What role does Posey play in this scenario? I mean, A.J., O.D., and Foster are gonna be targeted and now Hopkins is sucking up what's left and making the most of them. Where does that leave Posey?

A good team needs several receivers for depth.

What the Texans had last year was an anomaly.
(The #3, 4, 5 receivers only combined for 22 catches, I believe).

That has never happened before.

I went through the whole league, and the lowest total next to the Texans were 38 or something like that.
The norm for the league is closer to 70.
There are teams with total in the 80s.
There are two teams in the 90 (98 and 97 I think.)

JCTexan
05-11-2013, 09:35 AM
Where does that leave Posey?

As the fourth or fifth WR and that's not a bad thing. Would you rather go into the season waiting on Posey to take over the #2 spot when he only caught four passes last year?

76Texan
05-11-2013, 09:40 AM
What is the normal progression for 3rd year players who caught 6 balls on 12 targets and 2nd year players who caught 10 balls on 27 targets?



Man that would be awesome. 8 games at last year's level. I am sure those 4 receptions will cut deeply into the production of Hopkins and the other receiving options.

It's inconceivable to isolate a couple of things to make an argument.
You might want to consider all the points together.

Also, as I just stated in an above post, last year was an exception for the Texans (or any NFL team).

You might want to know that Posey only saw real actions in 4 games (perhaps 3-1/2, not even 4), and that his play continued into the play-offs.
You are allowed to put them together to make a projection.

Lucky
05-11-2013, 09:42 AM
As the fourth or fifth WR and that's not a bad thing. Would you rather go into the season waiting on Posey to take over the #2 spot when he only caught four passes last year?

It is very likely that Posey doesn't play a snap in 2013. He won't be ready for training camp which means the only way he gets back is being placed on the PUP list. I don't see Smith and Kubiak making that move.

ChampionTexan
05-11-2013, 09:48 AM
It is very likely that Posey doesn't play a snap in 2013. He won't be ready for training camp which means the only way he gets back is being placed on the PUP list. I don't see Smith and Kubiak making that move.

Why do you not see them making that move, and what move do you see them making? IR? If so, what's the advantage to that (compared to PUP)?

76Texan
05-11-2013, 09:53 AM
The situation for Posey is still up in the air.
In February, he twitted that he doesn't expect to miss any game time.
Kubiak seems to indicat that he won't be back until mid-season sometimes.
So we don't really know what to expect there.

infantrycak
05-11-2013, 09:55 AM
It's inconceivable to isolate a couple of things to make an argument.
You might want to consider all the points together.

Also, as I just stated in an above post, last year was an exception for the Texans (or any NFL team).

You might want to know that Posey only saw real actions in 4 games (perhaps 3-1/2, not even 4), and that his play continued into the play-offs.
You are allowed to put them together to make a projection.

So you answered nothing and presented an incoherent and inaccurate argument. I addressed all the "points" other than if Posey doesn't come back get a vet.

You aren't helping yourself with "Posey only saw real action in 4 games..." because all that means is HIS IMPACT LAST YEAR WAS ZILCH so getting back to last year means zilch.

Cool, you have staked out a ridiculous projection and will make any argument to self-verify it.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 09:56 AM
The interesting part about receiver production comes when I took a look at the Packers.

They also run a version of the WCO.
They have a FB and 4 TEs on the roster (they all contributed in the passing game).

They attempted 2 fewer passes than the Texans.
Yet, their #3-6 combined for 98 catches.

Lucky
05-11-2013, 09:57 AM
Why do you not see them making that move, and what move do you see them making? IR? If so, what's the advantage to that (compared to PUP)?
First, a roster spot on the initial 53 would be taken by Posey. Leaving someone available on waivers. Second, Posey is a young player and would not be able to practice with the team until after the 6th week of the season. He won't be ready to contribute. Finally, I don't see the Texans taking the risk until Posey goes through another offseason where he can get completely healthy. If this were a seasoned vet, it would be different. No advantage in bringing Posey back earlier than 2014.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 09:57 AM
So you answered nothing and presented an incoherent and inaccurate argument. I addressed all the "points" other than if Posey doesn't come back get a vet.

You aren't helping yourself with "Posey only saw real action in 4 games..." because all that means is HIS IMPACT LAST YEAR WAS ZILCH so getting back to last year means zilch.

Cool, you have staked out a ridiculous projection and will make any argument to self-verify it.

Posey's play last year needs to include the play-offs; I thought I made that clear.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 10:03 AM
First, a roster spot on the initial 53 would be taken by Posey. Leaving someone available on waivers. Second, Posey is a young player and would not be able to practice with the team until after the 6th week of the season. He won't be ready to contribute. Finally, I don't see the Texans taking the risk until Posey goes through another offseason where he can get completely healthy. If this were a seasoned vet, it would be different. No advantage in bringing Posey back earlier than 2014.

I prefer that they sign a vet.
We do have the cap room.

As I looked at it this morning, after signing all the rookies, the Texans should have some $1.6-$1.7M left.

When they leave Posey off the team and sign a vet, they should have the additional $$$ to bring the amount up to at least $2.1M

Lucky
05-11-2013, 10:04 AM
They attempted 2 fewer passes than the Texans.
Yet, their #3-6 combined for 98 catches.

The Packers attempted 4 more passes than the Texans (558 - 554).

infantrycak
05-11-2013, 10:08 AM
Posey's play last year needs to include the play-offs; I thought I made that clear.

What you made clear is you latch on to absurd arguments. Posey wasn't targeted a single time in the 1st playoff game and was 3 of 5 in the 2nd. One game isn't an argument for a projection.

But let's roll with your ridiculous 3.5 plus the playoffs argument, in 8 games "if he plays to last year" that projects to 13 receptions on 28 targets.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 10:09 AM
The Packers attempted 4 more passes than the Texans (558 - 554).

You're correct.

Also, as a note, their top two combined for 144 catches.
They just didn't pass the ball much to their RBs; the main difference that I noticed.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 10:10 AM
What you made clear is you latch on to absurd arguments. Posey wasn't targeted a single time in the 1st playoff game and was 3 of 5 in the 2nd. One game isn't an argument for a projection.

But let's roll with your ridiculous 3.5 plus the playoffs argument, in 8 games "if he plays to last year" that projects to 13 receptions on 28 targets.

That still adds to the number, doesn't it?

infantrycak
05-11-2013, 10:15 AM
That still adds to the number, doesn't it?

Chase your own tail. I'm not going to do it for you.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 10:18 AM
The Texans started last season with 6 receivers on the roster, but neither Posey nor Holliday saw any action on offense early on.

I think we should expect the Texans to sign a vet; and if Bonner doesn't make the roster, maybe two.

Those three (vet+Jean+vet) should see more snaps than the 3 last year as I don't think the Texans would give all of Walter's snaps at the onset.

Or KMart could see more snaps if Bonner takes over one part of return duties.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 10:18 AM
Chase your own tail. I'm not going to do it for you.

I never asked you to.

ChampionTexan
05-11-2013, 10:20 AM
First, a roster spot on the initial 53 would be taken by Posey. Leaving someone available on waivers. Second, Posey is a young player and would not be able to practice with the team until after the 6th week of the season. He won't be ready to contribute. Finally, I don't see the Texans taking the risk until Posey goes through another offseason where he can get completely healthy. If this were a seasoned vet, it would be different. No advantage in bringing Posey back earlier than 2014.

I believe you're thinking of the new (in 2012) rule where you can recall one player a year from IR assuming he's on the original 53 man roster, and that's different than PUP. I agree that he's absolutely not a candidate for that.

Posey would not take up a spot on the "original" 53 man roster if he were placed on reserve PUP (which is still in place and unaffected by the new IR rule). In order to be placed on the reserve PUP (out for a minimum of 6 regular season games), Posey would simply need to be placed on the active PUP prior to practicing in training camp (a no brainer), and then moved to the reserve PUP sometime prior to the season starting. I believe he would count against the preseason roster limit (90 thru the third preseason game, and 75 after that), but he would go from the active to reserve PUP without ever having to be on the 53 man roster. After 6 weeks of the regular season, he could then take up to three weeks to practice before either being placed on the 53 man roster (with a corresponding release of course) or placed on season ending IR.

If there's even the slightest chance of Posey making a mid-season comeback in 2013, PUP is the way to go with him.

thunderkyss
05-11-2013, 10:34 AM
Ok, so I projected low 30s for Hopkins to TPN's projection of 35...

http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a159/Thunderkyss/WRs_zps2eb1243c.jpg (http://s11.photobucket.com/user/Thunderkyss/media/WRs_zps2eb1243c.jpg.html)

JulioJones & TorreySmith were rookies in 2011. RoddyWhite is "comparable" to AndreJohnson, AnquanBoldin is a solid starter. Prior to Dec2012 many thought MattSchaub was comparable to JoeFlacco & MattRyan (he's only 4 years older)

What is most interesting is how Torrey & Julio's numbers compare to their #1 WRs & how KDub's numbers compare to his TEs. This is not a knock on KDub, just an observation. He would be an awesome weapon as a TE. His blocking is great for a WR, but 'meh as a TE..... so what, ODs blocking is 'meh as a TE.

thunderkyss
05-11-2013, 10:44 AM
Anyhow, I don't know if these numbers prove what I believe is true, but Matt spreads the ball around very well, this offense is designed to give him several options. He will scan the defense pre-snap, superimpose his routes on what he believes they are trying to do & with that information, he determines where his first read will be, then his second, third, & so on.

There is also a level of trust with his receivers, he knows what they can & can't do. Triple coverage, depending on specifics, doesn't necessarily ward him away from Andre Johnson. Shuffling new WRs into the line-up every 3 or 4 games probably didn't help him in December when every other team was playing their best ball.

I expect Schaub to have additional confidence in Keyshawn who will most likely be the slot WR, he's just got to catch the ball (he got open early & often last season), & LeStar who is very similar to Hopkins & will be rotating through that WR2 position (like KDub & Jacoby).

JMO, but if Hopkins gets more than 40 catches as a rookie, then he & Schaub clicked a lot earlier than I thought they would, or Hopkins is a lot better than anyone thought he would be.

disaacks3
05-11-2013, 10:51 AM
It's inconceivable to isolate a couple of things to make an argument. Were you kidnapped? Someone stole your PC?

:potkettle:

76Texan
05-11-2013, 10:54 AM
Anyhow, I don't know if these numbers prove what I believe is true, but Matt spreads the ball around very well, this offense is designed to give him several options. He will scan the defense pre-snap, superimpose his routes on what he believes they are trying to do & with that information, he determines where his first read will be, then his second, third, & so on.

There is also a level of trust with his receivers, he knows what they can & can't do. Triple coverage, depending on specifics, doesn't necessarily ward him away from Andre Johnson. Shuffling new WRs into the line-up every 3 or 4 games probably didn't help him in December when every other team was playing their best ball.

I expect Schaub to have additional confidence in Keyshawn who will most likely be the slot WR, he's just got to catch the ball (he got open early & often last season), & LeStar who is very similar to Hopkins & will be rotating through that WR2 position (like KDub & Jacoby).

JMO, but if Hopkins gets more than 40 catches as a rookie, then he & Schaub clicked a lot earlier than I thought they would, or Hopkins is a lot better than anyone thought he would be.

It's not easy to project a hard number because there are so many variables as I had mentioned in several posts.

If the Texans D play well and the special win their battle (mostly due to Lechler), the Texans may find themselves ahead more often than not.
If that happens, the Texans would run more; the receivers wouldn't have as much opportunities.

If the opposite happens such that the Texans find themselves needing to pass more often, there would be more opportunities for the receivers.

If the run game is effective early, the Texans could have more success in their passing attacks (more yards, but not necessarily more catches.)

If there's an injury to AJ or OD (or if the Texans save them for the playoffs), others could see more opportunities.

And so on.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 10:56 AM
Were you kidnapped? Someone stole your PC?

:potkettle:

LOL, I don't understand how you think that I isolate any event.
I set up a slew of premises in several posts. :chickendance:

Wolf
05-11-2013, 11:06 AM
My expectation is simple. hopkins just needs to establish as #2 and hopefully Kmart will take a step as a slot receiver. I am not to concerned as how many balls Hopkins sees. I'd like to see sone double digit YAC from him when he does get the ball in his hands

JCTexan
05-11-2013, 11:12 AM
If Hopkins is the #2 at the start of the year it's hard to imagine him not out-producing Walter's production from last year. So 45 catches for 600 yards seems like a reasonable expectation.

thunderkyss
05-11-2013, 11:13 AM
It's not easy to project a hard number because there are so many variables as I had mentioned in several posts.


Over 40... less than 30... about 35..... those aren't hard numbers & no one is expecting hard numbers. Just a projection.

Playoffs
05-11-2013, 11:49 AM
This statement prompted a question I'd like to pose to the gang here: Suppose Hopkins performs up to and beyond K.W. level (on one of his better years) and at the time of Posey's time to return - say game 6 or 8 or whenever - and has 35-40 catches for 5 or 6 TDs and is making those move the chains catches we expect from the #2. Question is this: What role does Posey play in this scenario? I mean, A.J., O.D., and Foster are gonna be targeted and now Hopkins is sucking up what's left and making the most of them. Where does that leave Posey?
Posey will be relegated to backup duty. Dude has a tough recovery ahead, and a tougher road to become significant in the NFL imo.

SteveSlaton20
05-11-2013, 12:14 PM
700-800~ yards with 5 TDs

The Pencil Neck
05-11-2013, 12:30 PM
Ok, so I projected low 30s for Hopkins to TPN's projection of 35, and he thinks I might a little bitter because the Texans drafted him?
LOL!

Reminds me of the old story about the two nurses and expectations. One nurse had wanted to be a doctor and because of a lot of things, flunked out and turned to nursing, instead. Another nurse had always wanted to be a nurse. One was bitter and unhappy because being a nurse was a sign of failure and the other was happy because being a nurse was a fulfillment of a dream.

You didn't like drafting any WR in this class in the 1st round because you don't think any of them are potential #1s and all I'm looking for is a #2 across from Andre. So even though our expectations for Hopkins' production this season are similar, our feelings about that production and the selection of the player can be quite different.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have some seasons coming up where both Andre and Deandre are over 1000 yards. I definitely expect Hopkins to be at least as good as KW was at his best.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 12:32 PM
Reminds me of the old story about the two nurses and expectations. One nurse had wanted to be a doctor and because of a lot of things, flunked out and turned to nursing, instead. Another nurse had always wanted to be a nurse. One was bitter and unhappy because being a nurse was a sign of failure and the other was happy because being a nurse was a fulfillment of a dream.

You didn't like drafting any WR in this class in the 1st round because you don't think any of them are potential #1s and all I'm looking for is a #2 across from Andre. So even though our expectations for Hopkins' production this season are similar, our feelings about that production and the selection of the player can be quite different.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have some seasons coming up where both Andre and Deandre are over 1000 yards. I definitely expect Hopkins to be at least as good as KW was at his best.

I'm happy we drafted Hopkins.
I would be a little happier if we accumulate picks for next year.
Either way, I'm happy. :)

And yes, I also expect Hopkins to be better than KW at his best, eventually.
I also said that Hopkins does have a chance to become a number one.
My expectation for him seems to be a tad higher than yours; how could that be? :)

thunderkyss
05-11-2013, 01:22 PM
I definitely expect Hopkins to be at least as good as KW was at his best.

I think we should probably talk about how KDub "failed" us. Maybe that will help us develop our expectations for Hopkins.

"Walter didn't draw any attention away from Andre." Or something similar is often said about KevinWalter, the real question is why not? & will Hopkins be able to provide that?

Kevin Walter was on the field for a reason & it wasn't his blocking ability. He was better at something than our other options were, what was it? & will DeAndre be able to provide that as well as that thing we were missing?

76Texan
05-11-2013, 01:22 PM
Also, I'd like to thank TK for a healthy PM.
I apologize if I may sound like a snob to anybody.:tiphat:

Wolf
05-11-2013, 02:07 PM
I think we should probably talk about how KDub "failed" us. Maybe that will help us develop our expectations for Hopkins.

"Walter didn't draw any attention away from Andre." Or something similar is often said about KevinWalter, the real question is why not? & will Hopkins be able to provide that?

Kevin Walter was on the field for a reason & it wasn't his blocking ability. He was better at something than our other options were, what was it? & will DeAndre be able to provide that as well as that thing we were missing?
Getting open and making key catches.however his YAC was pedestrian. Maybe the ability to run ins and outs or comeback routes. I don't know.

However (as a general statement and not knocking anyone's view) IMO Walter, for a 7th rounder by cincy,he did more for us than any of the receivers drafted that wasn't named " Johnson".once we got him

That isn't saying much is it lol

The Pencil Neck
05-11-2013, 02:13 PM
I think we should probably talk about how KDub "failed" us. Maybe that will help us develop our expectations for Hopkins.

"Walter didn't draw any attention away from Andre." Or something similar is often said about KevinWalter, the real question is why not? & will Hopkins be able to provide that?

Kevin Walter was on the field for a reason & it wasn't his blocking ability. He was better at something than our other options were, what was it? & will DeAndre be able to provide that as well as that thing we were missing?

Well, look at KW's decreasing numbers. This is why I think he became expendable.

At his best, he was getting 800+ yards per season in 2007 and 2008. Then he dropped down to about 500 yards per season in 2011 and 2012. That's just not getting it done.

What KW brought us was a guy who blocked well, ran the right routes, and then caught the ball when it was thrown to him. Back in his prime, he made some great catches. If the ball was close, he caught it.

Since then? Not so much. He was still OK but not as clutch as he had been.

I expect Hopkins to be that same sort of player. I expect him to run precise routes, be where he's supposed to be, and catch the ball. He might not be as good a blocker at first, but I expect him to develop into a good blocker. But more importantly, I expect him to get better separation on his routes that KW.

Playoffs
05-11-2013, 02:34 PM
I'm happy we drafted Hopkins. I would be a little happier if we accumulate picks for next year. Either way, I'm happy. :)
I totally get wanting to load in that 2014 draft class.

But this team is in the AJ playoff window. We needed to strike now.

I apologize if I may sound like a snob to anybody.:tiphat:No worries.

I think 35-40 receptions is doable.

bckey
05-11-2013, 02:43 PM
I'm going to say Hopkins gets 60 catches, 830 yards, and 7 tds. :koolaid:I just hope Schaub, Dre, and Daniels can stay healthy all season.

infantrycak
05-11-2013, 02:51 PM
Rookie #2 WR, rookie QB, expansion team, offense which could charitably be called asthmatic, 121 less completions than last year's Texans - 41 rec. 483 yds.

WR's taken in the bottom half of the 1st round of the last 5 drafts averaged: 44.6 receptions, 597.25 yds.

Wolf
05-11-2013, 02:55 PM
Rookie #2 WR, rookie QB, expansion team, offense which could charitably be called asthmatic, 121 less completions than last year's Texans - 41 rec. 483 yds.
Well he is wearing 10 also :heh:

Tearstain
05-11-2013, 03:21 PM
I think we will use him more in the red zone or third down situations.

Not expecting lots of yards or receptions.
Will stick my neck out and go for double digits for touch downs

25 receptions for 200 yrds and 10 Tds.

Like i said his big hands and fightimg for the ball. Short yards pass plays.


There again what do i know.

DocBar
05-11-2013, 05:45 PM
Rookie #2 WR, rookie QB, expansion team, offense which could charitably be called asthmatic, 121 less completions than last year's Texans - 41 rec. 483 yds.

WR's taken in the bottom half of the 1st round of the last 5 drafts averaged: 44.6 receptions, 597.25 yds.Those look like reasonable numbers. I'm expecting a very good year from Hopkins and I think he'll deliver.

I don't expect to see Posey next season. I wouldn't be shocked if he's not on the team in 2014. That's a very serious injury he's trying to recover from.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 05:54 PM
Rookie #2 WR, rookie QB, expansion team, offense which could charitably be called asthmatic, 121 less completions than last year's Texans - 41 rec. 483 yds.

WR's taken in the bottom half of the 1st round of the last 5 drafts averaged: 44.6 receptions, 597.25 yds.

Is there any way to seperate the figures?

Some spread teams distribute the ball to their receivers more;
Some may not have a FB, some don't have two productive TEs.
Some team don't figure their RB in the passing game as much as the Texans.

Then, we also have to account for teams that don't have a lethal weapon like AJ.

Were there any down time for the major weapons?

Those are some of the things I can think of at the moment.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 05:55 PM
Those look like reasonable numbers. I'm expecting a very good year from Hopkins and I think he'll deliver.

I don't expect to see Posey next season. I wouldn't be shocked if he's not on the team in 2014. That's a very serious injury he's trying to recover from.

The Texans may very well sign a veteran to take the place of Posey.
It's not like his production is difficult to replace.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 06:12 PM
I think we should probably talk about how KDub "failed" us. Maybe that will help us develop our expectations for Hopkins.

"Walter didn't draw any attention away from Andre." Or something similar is often said about KevinWalter, the real question is why not? & will Hopkins be able to provide that?

Kevin Walter was on the field for a reason & it wasn't his blocking ability. He was better at something than our other options were, what was it? & will DeAndre be able to provide that as well as that thing we were missing?

I think I will just stay away from comparing the two of them...
after this observation for the last time.

Hopkins was a Jr last year, so the long-term outlook for him is good.

But strictly speaking about what them two did on the field last year, I will be more than happy if Hopkins (in his rookie year) can do what Walter did last year in the passing game (forget the blocking).

Hopkins has the youth, Walter has the experience.
At the moment, I don't expect Hopkins youth to be able to overtake Walter's experience.

If Hopkins had accumulated his production against better competition, it would have provided us with more information.
But that wasn't the case, and therefore, questions remain.
Hopefully, we'll get a clearer picture in PS.

Playoffs
05-11-2013, 06:20 PM
Nick Scurfield ‏@NickScurfield 21m
Wade Phillips on DeAndre Hopkins: "The guy catches everything. Hes made some great catches in practice." #Texans

76Texan
05-11-2013, 06:33 PM
Nick Scurfield ‏@NickScurfield 21m

This is a part of his game I like to see improve from last year.

Straight drops as well as unable to hold on to the ball after getting hit.
Or he needs to get a little better separation so that the hit comes a hair later.

These are the things that he can improve on.
When he's able to do all that, he'll be a nice player; a number one receiver.

infantrycak
05-11-2013, 06:47 PM
Is there any way to seperate the figures?

Some spread teams distribute the ball to their receivers more;
Some may not have a FB, some don't have two productive TEs.
Some team don't figure their RB in the passing game as much as the Texans.

Then, we also have to account for teams that don't have a lethal weapon like AJ.

Were there any down time for the major weapons?

Those are some of the things I can think of at the moment.

Some of them had stars on their helmets.

Some had eagles.

Some had thumbtacks.

All of which is equally irrelevant to your attempt to distract.

But hey if you want to play lets convolute the average I can go back and do it with lower half 1st round receivers who went to teams with 4000+ yd QB's. Well there were only two of those and they had 60 rec. for 790 yds and 47 rec. for 790 yds and 6 TD's apiece (both with WCO teams).

Or how about this one, the two who fell below your predictions for Hopkins - none of the five QB's who were throwing to them are with their teams any longer nor are they starting QB's.

Now let's take a guess, what affects a WR's performance more, the QB or whether or not the FB scratches his butt with his left or right hand regardless of whether he is on the field.

Texans_Chick
05-11-2013, 07:11 PM
Kubiak is going to want Andre Johnson to get about 110 receptions if he plays for 16 games.

TDs for all Texans receivers will be artificially low because Arian Foster will tend to vulture most of the close in attempts. Dennison is a big believer in the offensive line imposing its will with the run game close in. They'd rather Arian Foster pick his way through traffic, and almost walk in the endzone.

So, with that as a preface, and knowing that Foster and OD and others may get some targets too, here is a thought:

I like going to camp myself because I don't trust many camp reports. I think sometimes guys get over hyped or over dogged based on something flashy that went on, or maybe something struck one guy watching camp, and it got reported, and then it becomes sort of a group think thing.

I don't like to say definitive things unless it is almost a no-brainer, this is a non-disputable opinion. And rookie minicamp is soooo early with not real competition.

That being said, all the way too early camp reports on Hopkins looking really good are spot on, indisputable.

The last time a WR stood out so much at camp was Trindon Holliday's first season where it was so obvious that he was terrible and didn't know what he was doing as a WR.

Hopkins stands out the opposite way. He looks so much better than everybody out there on both sides of the ball. Look very effortless the way he catches. Nice afterburners on overthrown balls. You can see him contest and win contestable balls. (In a way that makes you nervous because you don't want anyone hurt).

Kubiak rarely is enthusiastic with young wide receivers. Both he and Dennison are enthusiastic about Hopkins. You can also see them giving him extra time. They want him to be a bad ass because they know he's right up the alley of what they like in a wide receiver.

So, in sum, I'm not buying all the hype on some of the other players mentioned. You can see some good and not so good and learning. But Hopkins just looks like he is already doing full grown man stuff, looks so much better than any of the WR draft picks from last year.

So yeah, I was not a huge WE MUST GET DEANDRE HOPKINS fan when the draft was going on. Just more wait and see and whatever. And I'm not someone that typically thinks most rookies are going to be immediate impact guys. But boy howdy, I really can't wait to see him line up with Andre.

In other words, this wasn't a brussels sprout no fun, necessary evil draft pick. This dude could be big fun to watch and fast. No idea with the numbers, but just a perfect fit for this offense.

thunderkyss
05-11-2013, 07:30 PM
I'm just trying to temper expectations. Don't want TT.com to start calling him a bust with 30 catches & 6 TDs in his rookie season.

steelbtexan
05-11-2013, 07:37 PM
Kubiak is going to want Andre Johnson to get about 110 receptions if he plays for 16 games.

TDs for all Texans receivers will be artificially low because Arian Foster will tend to vulture most of the close in attempts. Dennison is a big believer in the offensive line imposing its will with the run game close in. They'd rather Arian Foster pick his way through traffic, and almost walk in the endzone.

So, with that as a preface, and knowing that Foster and OD and others may get some targets too, here is a thought:

I like going to camp myself because I don't trust many camp reports. I think sometimes guys get over hyped or over dogged based on something flashy that went on, or maybe something struck one guy watching camp, and it got reported, and then it becomes sort of a group think thing.

I don't like to say definitive things unless it is almost a no-brainer, this is a non-disputable opinion. And rookie minicamp is soooo early with not real competition.

That being said, all the way too early camp reports on Hopkins looking really good are spot on, indisputable.

The last time a WR stood out so much at camp was Trindon Holliday's first season where it was so obvious that he was terrible and didn't know what he was doing as a WR.

Hopkins stands out the opposite way. He looks so much better than everybody out there on both sides of the ball. Look very effortless the way he catches. Nice afterburners on overthrown balls. You can see him contest and win contestable balls. (In a way that makes you nervous because you don't want anyone hurt).

Kubiak rarely is enthusiastic with young wide receivers. Both he and Dennison are enthusiastic about Hopkins. You can also see them giving him extra time. They want him to be a bad ass because they know he's right up the alley of what they like in a wide receiver.

So, in sum, I'm not buying all the hype on some of the other players mentioned. You can see some good and not so good and learning. But Hopkins just looks like he is already doing full grown man stuff, looks so much better than any of the WR draft picks from last year.

So yeah, I was not a huge WE MUST GET DEANDRE HOPKINS fan when the draft was going on. Just more wait and see and whatever. And I'm not someone that typically thinks most rookies are going to be immediate impact guys. But boy howdy, I really can't wait to see him line up with Andre.

In other words, this wasn't a brussels sprout no fun, necessary evil draft pick. This dude could be big fun to watch and fast. No idea with the numbers, but just a perfect fit for this offense.

How does Bonner look in comparison to how Posey and Martin looked in last yrs mini-camp?

76Texan
05-11-2013, 08:08 PM
I'm just trying to temper expectations. Don't want TT.com to start calling him a bust with 30 catches & 6 TDs in his rookie season.

There's no telling about the reaction; but hopefully, the more we lay out all the info, people will have more to go by before coming to a conclusion that might be a bit early in expectation.

TC, always appreciate your eyes, ears, and mind.

Icak; we can do better. We can look at each individual case.
Five years is not much, especially when there were no receiver drafted in the first round in 2008.

I'm not sure when I have some time, but I did the preliminary check already.
If you like, you can go first. You can start with 09 or 2012, either way.

TejasTom
05-11-2013, 08:28 PM
I don't care if he can catch everything...how's his blocking? :D

infantrycak
05-11-2013, 08:46 PM
Icak; we can do better. We can look at each individual case.

No we can't because I don't care about your individual analysis on how WR X had three OLmen whose names contained the letter Q.

Five years is not much, especially when there were no receiver drafted in the first round in 2008.

Funny when the standard refrain is the league is rapidly becoming more pass happy so the last five years should be most reflective of what to expect.

I'm not sure when I have some time, but I did the preliminary check already.
If you like, you can go first. You can start with 09 or 2012, either way.

Naw, we're good. You need the time to watch film on each of our 27 UDFA's plus our draft picks for the fourth time. Don't let me distract from that.

ObsiWan
05-11-2013, 08:46 PM
I don't care if he can catch everything...how's his blocking? :D
Sorry. No serious contact allowed yet
:)

Fili
05-11-2013, 09:09 PM
I don't care if he can catch everything...how's his blocking? :D

Supposed to be best blocking WR in draft. That's why we got him as 2nd WR drafted, rather than him being drafted after Patterson.

76Texan
05-11-2013, 09:31 PM
Rookie #2 WR, rookie QB, expansion team, offense which could charitably be called asthmatic, 121 less completions than last year's Texans - 41 rec. 483 yds.

WR's taken in the bottom half of the 1st round of the last 5 drafts averaged: 44.6 receptions, 597.25 yds.

No we can't because I don't care about your individual analysis on how WR X had three OLmen whose names contained the letter Q.



Funny when the standard refrain is the league is rapidly becoming more pass happy so the last five years should be most reflective of what to expect.



Naw, we're good. You need the time to watch film on each of our 27 UDFA's plus our draft picks for the fourth time. Don't let me distract from that.

Please reread your own posts.
I took the five years from yours.

welsh texan
05-12-2013, 06:05 AM
I think this guy gets worked into the system effectively this season. I see nothing but positive reports about him and Kubiak seems capable of making role players out of anyone with 4 limbs across from Andre.

I think the pick also eventually strengthens the effectiveness of our 3-5 WR positions on the depth chart which excites me. Posey, recovery permitting, can be a great slot player for a long time, Martin & Jean both seem like players who they can get as much as they need out of.

Of course it leaves another year of a now aging OD as our second receiver, and Garrett Graham is also capable of taking plenty of early reads as well.

So, in 2013 i'm not expecting anything too flashy on the stat sheet, maybe around 500 yards or so and around 5 TD's perhaps. In 2014 onwards though, I really think we can expect to see some serious production out of this group of receivers away from AJ.

Of course the improvement we need to see from the Oline will be a huge key, they seem to have got very young on the line again save for 3 starters, and in recent years we've seen them turn Oliners into what they need pretty efficiently. That will be huge to Schaub's ability to get the ball where it needs to be and make the most of the talent around him.

More importantly, I like the direction they took in this draft, getting high level players to come in and learn from two future HOFers approaching their twilight years in AJ and Ed Reed.

Texans_Chick
05-12-2013, 09:29 AM
How does Bonner look in comparison to how Posey and Martin looked in last yrs mini-camp?

Kubiak had nice things to say about him as far as doing good things after the catch, and doing stuff with his returns.

By my eyes, I do not see anything that particularly distinguishes him from the rest of the WRs this year.

As for compared to the WRs last year? Maybe the same.

He's well put together, runs decent routes. Nothing bad, nothing that stood out as exceptional like Hopkins.

As far as camp sorts of stuff, this is as excited as I've been for a player since seeing JJ Watt lineup day 1 as a starter and look like one of the best guys on the field.

Only Hopkins worry is that he seems to be fairly fearless. Diving for stuff. Getting defensive players on top of him (and the coaches yelling at the defenders). I don't want him hurt. He is too fun to watch.

So in some, I try to guard against camp hyperbole in general, and tend not to buy into stuff my eyes can't confirm because some camp talk is almost like trying to motivate guys. But boy howdy, believe the hype with Hopkins.

I don't know what stat numbers are going to happen given that if the defense is playing good, they tend to do operation shutdown of the offense in the second half of games, but he looks like a contributor, someone who can scare opposing defenses.

RipTraxx
05-13-2013, 11:58 PM
B/W what i saw in college, combine, and the little bit that's been reported from mini camp....i've got NUK for at least 800 and 8 tds....any takers?

leebigeztx
05-14-2013, 12:23 AM
B/W what i saw in college, combine, and the little bit that's been reported from mini camp....i've got NUK for at least 800 and 8 tds....any takers?

So he's gonna score more than dre? I doubt it, but I can se 35 rec 550 yds 4td

Fili
05-14-2013, 07:13 AM
So he's gonna score more than dre? I doubt it, but I can se 35 rec 550 yds 4td

Maybe 45 rec 650 yds 4 tds

michaelm
05-14-2013, 09:30 AM
Since Hopkins is taking over Walter's position, I looked back at production from Kdub over the last three seasons.

Kdub averaged:
43.66 receptions
537.66 yards
12.33 Avg
3.3 TDs


I think Hopkins can easily match 43 catches in the same postion and will have a better yardage average as well.


I'll go with:
44 receptions
587 yards
13.33 Avg
4 TDs

The Pencil Neck
05-14-2013, 10:29 AM
On NFL AM this morning, they were discussing rookie WRs they expected to be productive this year. Kriegle said he expected Aaron Dobson to have a big year with New England; the other guy (don't remember which one) said he expected Hopkins to have a big year with the Texans.

I'm working so I don't have time to back it up to see who said it or exactly what they said. Should show up on YouTube or NFL.com soon, though.

badboy
05-14-2013, 10:45 AM
This statement prompted a question I'd like to pose to the gang here: Suppose Hopkins performs up to and beyond K.W. level (on one of his better years) and at the time of Posey's time to return - say game 6 or 8 or whenever - and has 35-40 catches for 5 or 6 TDs and is making those move the chains catches we expect from the #2. Question is this: What role does Posey play in this scenario? I mean, A.J., O.D., and Foster are gonna be targeted and now Hopkins is sucking up what's left and making the most of them. Where does that leave Posey?

A very legitimate question imo. AJ had a very good season and another reason why MS looked for him over the other guys including OD. Posey had SIX receptions (5 in last three games) in 11 games but was ramping up play when injured. I think it is quite possible he could have ended with 12-15 if not injured.

I think how we are playing including record will impact # of receptions AJ gets. Like Foster, I would love to be able to allow AJ some plays off during the season. Jumped on some teams early and makes some moves in fourth quarter for the other WRs. Same with TEs.

HOU-TEX
05-14-2013, 10:54 AM
He's just a rookie, so I'm guessing 121 receptions, 1,846 yards and 17 TDs

badboy
05-14-2013, 11:02 AM
So he's gonna score more than dre? I doubt it, but I can se 35 rec 550 yds 4tdI can see 8 for Hopkins & here is why. He should catch some teams by surprise with a few and like Dreesen who had 8 TDs IIRC, Hopkins should get a couple if not more in Red Zone. It is possible.

The Pencil Neck
05-14-2013, 11:24 AM
I can see 8 for Hopkins & here is why. He should catch some teams by surprise with a few and like Dreesen who had 8 TDs IIRC, Hopkins should get a couple if not more in Red Zone. It is possible.

Yeah.

I won't be surprised by a high TD number for him because of the coverage being shifted over to AJ.

I don't recall if I've said this before but AJ could have a big year. If Hopkins starts performing, we could see defenses trying to get too exotic with the coverages and screwing some stuff up leaving AJ wide open.

thunderkyss
05-14-2013, 12:16 PM
He's just a rookie, so I'm guessing 121 receptions, 1,846 yards and 17 TDs

Really?

Only a 15.2 yard average per catch?

Could have got that in the 2nd round.

JCTexan
05-15-2013, 08:25 AM
A very legitimate question imo. AJ had a very good season and another reason why MS looked for him over the other guys including OD. Posey had SIX receptions (5 in last three games) in 11 games but was ramping up play when injured. I think it is quite possible he could have ended with 12-15 if not injured.

I think how we are playing including record will impact # of receptions AJ gets. Like Foster, I would love to be able to allow AJ some plays off during the season. Jumped on some teams early and makes some moves in fourth quarter for the other WRs. Same with TEs.

Posey had all six of his catches the final four weeks of the season but was injured late in the Patriots playoff game. He wasn't going to catch over five passes in less than a quarter of football.

b0ng
05-15-2013, 08:49 AM
I can see 8 for Hopkins & here is why. He should catch some teams by surprise with a few and like Dreesen who had 8 TDs IIRC, Hopkins should get a couple if not more in Red Zone. It is possible.

Dreessen had 6 TD's in 2011, that's the most in his career for one season. He had 5 last year with Peyton throwing to him.

Since Kubiak has gotten here I don't think any WR has ever had double digit TD's (TE's either) receiving. As pointed out earlier that's just not how the Texans roll when it comes to the red zone, they are more than happy to let Foster/Tate/3rd RB goes here get the TD's from rushing. And if there is a receiving TD to be had for the Texans, it's almost a sure bet that it's going to a TE on a playaction pass before it goes to Andre, DeAndre, or any other WR. We use our wideouts to gain large chunks of yards in between the 20's.

My expectations for Hopkins is going to be about 40 - 50 catches with around 700 yards, but few TD's (say 3).

thunderkyss
05-15-2013, 11:52 AM
As pointed out earlier that's just not how the Texans roll when it comes to the red zone.

We use our wideouts to gain large chunks of yards in between the 20's.



I hope the addition of a true #2 loosens coverage a bit, allowing us to score more often from 30+