PDA

View Full Version : Football Outsiders: State of the Texans


Tailgate
04-03-2013, 02:18 PM
Didnt see this posted anywhere yet. Nothing new to us, but still a good little breakdown of our current depth chart:

State of the Team: Houston Texans
by Andy Benoit
The 2013 "State of the Team" articles will run daily through the NFL draft. These offer a snapshot look at a team’s roster, with players classified by color based on how they fit their role. My analysis is based on film study, not statistics, although we will try to note when my judgment differs significantly from FO's advanced stats, and explain a little bit why. Starters are in bold, and you will notice that there are 12 defensive starters rather than just 11. This denotes the extra playing time that nickelbacks and third receivers usually get in today's NFL. (However, since the Texans change offensive personnel less than almost any other team, we've listed them with only 11 starters.)


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/state-team/2013/state-team-houston-texans

eriadoc
04-03-2013, 02:32 PM
Hmmm ... from the article:

Texans fans don’t appreciate Reed enough. He’s not a great cover guy or pure speed-rusher, but he’s very good at the point of attack against the run. He also has a strong understanding of the little things that help his teammates, such as taking on blocks to set up stunts, twists and blitzes, or setting the edge play side. Phillips’ system is heavily reliant on those little things. A lot of Reed’s dirty work benefits Cushing, who’s often the focal point of Phillips’ interior blitz designs. If he bounces back from last October’s ACL injury, the Texans will once again be dangerous in their dime package.

Playoffs
04-03-2013, 02:33 PM
Color-coded for those simple-minded fans like me.

Repped.

2012Champs
04-03-2013, 02:39 PM
I must just be a Schaub lover because I still dont get the lack of arm or lack of velocity. Schaub would benefit grealty from better footwork but his arm is fine. Im not sure if you dont rate Schaub as "good" where the rest of the league would fall

Thorn
04-03-2013, 02:42 PM
We already know who our best players are, but it's always nice to see them get some recognition from the outside world anyway. We know we have a great team, a playoff team in anyone's book. It's just how deep into the playoffs we go that's still a mystery.

thunderkyss
04-03-2013, 03:23 PM
I must just be a Schaub lover because I still dont get the lack of arm or lack of velocity. Schaub would benefit grealty from better footwork but his arm is fine. Im not sure if you dont rate Schaub as "good" where the rest of the league would fall

He underthrows a lot of balls. He has said that he does it on purpose to make it easier for the receivers to catch & that may be true for all I know.

But to someone who is just watching the game, it doesn't make any sense to have a WR behind the defense, then purposely underthrow a ball allowing the defense to catch up.

Just watching, & not having read a Schaub quote stating he underthrows on purpose, my first guess would be that he couldn't throw it any deeper.

Having said that, there have been a few that looked as deep & straight as any ball thrown in the NFL.... they're just too far & between to make you think he can do it consistently.

The Pencil Neck
04-03-2013, 03:38 PM
He underthrows a lot of balls. He has said that he does it on purpose to make it easier for the receivers to catch & that may be true for all I know.

But to someone who is just watching the game, it doesn't make any sense to have a WR behind the defense, then purposely underthrow a ball allowing the defense to catch up.

Just watching, & not having read a Schaub quote stating he underthrows on purpose, my first guess would be that he couldn't throw it any deeper.

Having said that, there have been a few that looked as deep & straight as any ball thrown in the NFL.... they're just too far & between to make you think he can do it consistently.

I don't have too much of an issue with his deep ball, tbh.

My issue with his arm strength is in the red zone. The windows get smaller and tighter and you have to zip the balls in there. Schaub makes great reads and identifies the right guy to get it to but he can't put enough mustard on the ball to squeeze it in between defenders in those tight spaces. TJ Yates has thrown better balls in the red zone than anything I've seen from Schaub.

This is part of the reason we had such an abysmal red zone percentage prior to having a RB who could punch it in. That's just not where Schaub really shines.

You know, I've said all this and then I went and actually looked at last year's stats. His QB rating was highest in the Red Zone at 96. He had 15 TDs and 1 INT. I don't recall him ever being that good there. I went back through his history and... he's mostly been OK stat-wise in the Red Zone. He just had a down year in 2011 with a <80 rating but since he's been a Texan, he's mostly been good in the red zone with a >100 rating.

That's so totally not how I perceived it. :mariopalm:

76Texan
04-03-2013, 03:41 PM
I don't have too much of an issue with his deep ball, tbh.

My issue with his arm strength is in the red zone. The windows get smaller and tighter and you have to zip the balls in there. Schaub makes great reads and identifies the right guy to get it to but he can't put enough mustard on the ball to squeeze it in between defenders in those tight spaces. TJ Yates has thrown better balls in the red zone than anything I've seen from Schaub.

This is part of the reason we had such an abysmal red zone percentage prior to having a RB who could punch it in. That's just not where Schaub really shines.

You know, I've said all this and then I went and actually looked at last year's stats. His QB rating was highest in the Red Zone at 96. He had 15 TDs and 1 INT. I don't recall him ever being that good there. I went back through his history and... he's mostly been OK stat-wise in the Red Zone. He just had a down year in 2011 with a <80 rating but since he's been a Texan, he's mostly been good in the red zone with a >100 rating.

That's so totally not how I perceived it. :mariopalm:Lol, and despite that drop by Casey, too!

CloakNNNdagger
04-03-2013, 06:18 PM
I don't have too much of an issue with his deep ball, tbh.

My issue with his arm strength is in the red zone. The windows get smaller and tighter and you have to zip the balls in there. Schaub makes great reads and identifies the right guy to get it to but he can't put enough mustard on the ball to squeeze it in between defenders in those tight spaces. TJ Yates has thrown better balls in the red zone than anything I've seen from Schaub.

This is part of the reason we had such an abysmal red zone percentage prior to having a RB who could punch it in. That's just not where Schaub really shines.

You know, I've said all this and then I went and actually looked at last year's stats. His QB rating was highest in the Red Zone at 96. He had 15 TDs and 1 INT. I don't recall him ever being that good there. I went back through his history and... he's mostly been OK stat-wise in the Red Zone. He just had a down year in 2011 with a <80 rating but since he's been a Texan, he's mostly been good in the red zone with a >100 rating.

That's so totally not how I perceived it. :mariopalm: ]

The QB rating in the RZ stat can be somewhat skewed when looking at the total number of RZ TDs in comparison with the top QBs. How many times have we seen what we felt was a perfect passing situation for a RZ TD.............and the ball was handed off because of Schaub and/or Kubiak not feeling confident with Schaub's ability to complete the TD?............drove me nuts...........didn't jeopardize his QB rating though.:kitten:

sandman
04-03-2013, 07:07 PM
]

The QB rating in the RZ stat can be somewhat skewed when looking at the total number of RZ TDs in comparison with the top QBs. How many times have we seen what we felt was a perfect passing situation for a RZ TD.............and the ball was handed off because of Schaub and/or Kubiak not feeling confident with Schaub's ability to complete the TD?............drove me nuts...........didn't jeopardize his QB rating though.:kitten:

Arian Foster led the league in regular season Red Zone rushing TD's.

Play to your strengths. Sometimes it has nothing to do with Schaub no matter how hard we want it to be...

76Texan
04-03-2013, 07:28 PM
Arian Foster led the league in regular season Red Zone rushing TD's.

Play to your strengths. Sometimes it has nothing to do with Schaub no matter how hard we want it to be...

Also, we have roughly 35% more goal and go situations than the average of the rest of the league; certainly it adds to persuade the decision.

Corrosion
04-03-2013, 08:19 PM
Hmmm ... from the article:

The Kevin Walter of the defense .... :kitten:

Texan_Bill
04-03-2013, 08:45 PM
The Kevin Walter of the defense .... :kitten:

:user: Are you suggesting that Reed and Walter are/were the Rodney Dangerfields of the Texans? :shades:

2012Champs
04-04-2013, 11:42 AM
He underthrows a lot of balls. He has said that he does it on purpose to make it easier for the receivers to catch & that may be true for all I know.

But to someone who is just watching the game, it doesn't make any sense to have a WR behind the defense, then purposely underthrow a ball allowing the defense to catch up.

Just watching, & not having read a Schaub quote stating he underthrows on purpose, my first guess would be that he couldn't throw it any deeper.

Having said that, there have been a few that looked as deep & straight as any ball thrown in the NFL.... they're just too far & between to make you think he can do it consistently.




If he can make the throws sometimes its not arm strength. I dont have the arm strength to throw a ball 60 yards ever. His footwork is what plays into the inconsistant nature of the deep ball not the strength of his arm

thunderkyss
04-04-2013, 11:55 AM
Arian Foster led the league in regular season Red Zone rushing TD's.

Play to your strengths. Sometimes it has nothing to do with Schaub no matter how hard we want it to be...

The Patriots led the league in rushing TDs, I wonder what the perception of Tom Brady is in the Red Zone.

El Tejano
04-04-2013, 01:20 PM
The Patriots led the league in rushing TDs, I wonder what the perception of Tom Brady is in the Red Zone.

That he ran a few of those in and Matt Schaub never does.

HJam72
04-04-2013, 06:15 PM
We hand the ball to Foster in the Red Zone because the D's are all geared toward pass coverage as a result of being scared silly by Schaub's lazer-rocket arm strength. :stirpot:

Jules Winnfield
04-05-2013, 02:19 PM
I must just be a Schaub lover because I still dont get the lack of arm or lack of velocity. Schaub would benefit grealty from better footwork but his arm is fine. Im not sure if you dont rate Schaub as "good" where the rest of the league would fall

not only does he have a weak arm but he also has huge accuracy problems. but schaub's biggest problem is his decision making which is very very suspect yet he's in a system where its very qb friendly, has a great pro bowl laden offensive line, a great reciever, very good tight end, great running back(s) yet he plays like everything is crumbling around him.

people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.

its like a running back bragging about gaining 1,000 yards. almost everybody gets 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards running.

2012Champs
04-05-2013, 02:26 PM
not only does he have a weak arm but he also has huge accuracy problems. but schaub's biggest problem is his decision making which is very very suspect yet he's in a system where its very qb friendly, has a great pro bowl laden offensive line, a great reciever, very good tight end, great running back(s) yet he plays like everything is crumbling around him.

people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.

its like a running back bragging about gaining 1,000 yards. almost everybody gets 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards running.



It looks like 11 players had 4k yards last season. those not on the list Eli, Cam, Flacco, Dalton , Rivers, Weeden, Griffin etc

2011 it was 10 matt missed out but was on pace for 3966
2010 it was 5 matt was #4
2009 it was 10 with matt #1
2008 it was 6
2007 it was 7
2006 it was 5


almost everyone doesnt fit here

thunderkyss
04-05-2013, 02:32 PM
people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.



There was a time where consistently throwing 3000 yards a season meant you had a starter. There were several guys who could start 16 games, but not crack 3000 yards. There were other guys who would get pulled & never have the opportunity to throw for 3000 yards, because they were so bad.

Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.

So, in this case, throwing for 4,000 yards says exactly that about Matt Schaub, he's a quality starter. Does that mean he can win a Super Bowl? Hell no, but don't act like garbage QBs are throwing for 4,000 yards.

thunderkyss
04-05-2013, 02:34 PM
people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.



There was a time where consistently throwing 3000 yards a season meant you had a starter. There were several guys who could start 16 games, but not crack 3000 yards. There were other guys who would get pulled & never have the opportunity to throw for 3000 yards, because they were so bad.

Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.

So, in this case, throwing for 4,000 yards says exactly that about Matt Schaub, he's a quality starter. Does that mean he can win a Super Bowl? Hell no, but don't act like garbage QBs are throwing for 4,000 yards.

& as far as rushing for 1,000 yards for a RB. It's never been a big deal. Being able to rush for 1,000 yards for multiple seasons is the hallmark of a great RB.

Jules Winnfield
04-05-2013, 02:35 PM
It looks like 11 players had 4k yards last season. those not on the list Eli, Cam, Flacco, Dalton , Rivers, Weeden, Griffin etc

2011 it was 10 matt missed out but was on pace for 3966
2010 it was 5 matt was #4
2009 it was 10 with matt #1
2008 it was 6
2007 it was 7
2006 it was 5


almost everyone doesnt fit here

the league is trending towards 4,000 yards passing becoming an increasing regularity. the rule changes are favoring the offense more than ever.

thunderkyss
04-05-2013, 02:36 PM
the league is trending towards 4,000 yards passing becoming an increasing regularity. the rule changes are favoring the offense more than ever.

So now you're saying Matt is ahead of the pack? & has been for a while?

Jules Winnfield
04-05-2013, 02:45 PM
So now you're saying Matt is ahead of the pack? & has been for a while?

not quite. nice try though.

eriadoc
04-05-2013, 02:50 PM
Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.

Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/

Jules Winnfield
04-05-2013, 02:54 PM
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/


thank you.

thunderkyss
04-05-2013, 03:31 PM
So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be.


I didn't disagree with that at all.


But not being "nearly as impressive" & not being "impressive" are two totally different things.

eriadoc
04-05-2013, 03:48 PM
But not being "nearly as impressive" & not being "impressive" are two totally different things.

OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.

76Texan
04-05-2013, 03:58 PM
The eye ball test:

Schaub has improved his footwork as I wanted him to; that is not to say he's ever pretty.
The ball fake off the play action is probably among the best.
His roll-out will never be great since he's not mobile.

He has gotten rid of the long-winded throwing motion.

He does not hold on to the ball too long anymore, and therefore taking fewer sacks.

His TD/INT has been better as compared to the first 4 years of his career.

His air yard per attempt over the last 4 years ranks somewhere between top 5 to top 10.

He's not horrendous in the red zone (14 TDs vs 1 INT).

Again, Schaub is not great; he's not even "very good", but he's quite good, all I'm saying. Still somewhere between top 10-15 for me.

2012Champs
04-05-2013, 04:32 PM
OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.




lets just say more people are hitting 4k but Jules said almost everyone gets 4k which isnt nearly the case

Insideop
04-05-2013, 04:45 PM
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/

Not to be nit picking or anything, but, I don't think you have the stats quite right. According to the website you listed, it's not "48 total 4000-yd seasons" it's 48 total QB's who have thrown for 4000 yards, a total of 110 times. Here's the quote from the website:
Overall, there have been 48 different quarterbacks who've passed for 4,000 yards in a season. The group has combined to do so 110 times.

So that dilutes the accomplishment even further! :smiliepalm:

76Texan
04-05-2013, 04:58 PM
If you want to go into the numbers, Schaub could have 5 straight seasons with over 4,000 yards...
if you prorate the numbers from 2008 and 2011.

In 2008, Schaub played only 11 games.

In 2011, Schaub played 10 games, but he only attempted 3 passes in the second half of the 10 games due to the injury sustained in the first half.
And there's the Titans game, for example, when we were way ahead and Schaub only attempted 5 passes in the second half.

The Pencil Neck
04-05-2013, 06:40 PM
Not to be nit picking or anything, but, I don't think you have the stats quite right. According to the website you listed, it's not "48 total 4000-yd seasons" it's 48 total QB's who have thrown for 4000 yards, a total of 110 times. Here's the quote from the website:


So that dilutes the accomplishment even further! :smiliepalm:

In 2009, Schaub threw for 4770 yards.

Since then, with the changes in the rules, that's down to 14th. But at the time, only Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Dan Fouts had thrown for more. That's good company to be in.

He's not a bad QB. Not great, but good enough to get the job done.

TejasTom
04-05-2013, 07:11 PM
In 2009, Schaub threw for 4770 yards.

Since then, with the changes in the rules, that's down to 14th. But at the time, only Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Dan Fouts had thrown for more. That's good company to be in.

He's not a bad QB. Not great, but good enough to get the job done.

And Schaub did it with "greats" like Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson. Heck, Vonta Leach even caught 20 balls that year and the team's leading rusher had only 437 yards.

Texanmike02
04-05-2013, 07:23 PM
Everyone is complaining about schaub, and if you don't think he's a top 5 QB I agree but the kid can play. Take a look at the QBs that you consider to be better than him. Look at the WR corps they have. Hell take flacco. Boldin is a beast, not Andre beastly but a beast. Between him and Jacoby? Torry smith >>>> Kevin Walter. How many QBs that you think are better than schaub have worse or even comperable receivers? Schaub may be a borderline 10 qb but it is hard to argue that our receivers are not bottom 10. I would love to see a NT or ILB but received is our first second and third need. To ***** about Schaub without realizing that he has thrown for an average of 270 ypg over the last 4 years to Andre Owen and nobody special is just flat asinine.

There isn't a qb that is in the top 5 that doesn't have at least 4 or 5 legitimate targets. And as great as Andre is he can't make up for the lack of targets. If you only have two options to throw to I don't care how good they are they can be covered. How many receiving corps would you NOT take over ours? I'm guessing that outside of Seattle that there isn't a playoff team whos receiving corps I wouldn't trade for ours.



Mike

thunderkyss
04-05-2013, 09:34 PM
OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.

If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today. "Becoming" being the operative word here.

He chokes.

He's not a leader of men.

He's not a winner.

I don't care how many yards he's thrown for, but 4000 yards is impressive. 4000 yards in every season he's played 16 games... that's impressive. Being on track to throw for 4000 in the years he didn't play 16 games, that's impressive.

20 years from now, probably not impressive at all. Today..... impressive.

He's got the ability to be an elite QB. But he's not elite. Won't ever be. Has nothing to do with his mobility, his arm, or his decision making. He's a choker.

Texanmike02
04-05-2013, 09:47 PM
If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today. "Becoming" being the operative word here.

He chokes.

He's not a leader of men.

He's not a winner.

I don't care how many yards he's thrown for, but 4000 yards is impressive. 4000 yards in every season he's played 16 games... that's impressive. Being on track to throw for 4000 in the years he didn't play 16 games, that's impressive.

20 years from now, probably not impressive at all. Today..... impressive.

He's got the ability to be an elite QB. But he's not elite. Won't ever be. Has nothing to do with his mobility, his arm, or his decision making. He's a choker.

He chokes? That is a wild assertion that barely has any credibility. Did Andre choke when he dropped that pass? What about Casey? Walter? On the first be game kj trys to scoop and run instead of just fall on the fumble. Quinn dropped a sure INT. In years past how many times did he put us in game tying/winning positions only to have the defense blow it? The 46 second 96 yard march by Sanchez anyone?

By the way, flacco was a choke artist until this year.

Mike

thunderkyss
04-05-2013, 10:16 PM
He chokes? That is a wild assertion that barely has any credibility. Did Andre choke when he dropped that pass? What about Casey? Walter? On the first be game kj trys to scoop and run instead of just fall on the fumble. Quinn dropped a sure INT. In years past how many times did he put us in game tying/winning positions only to have the defense blow it? The 46 second 96 yard march by Sanchez anyone?

By the way, flacco was a choke artist until this year.

Mike

Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes......... doesn't matter, we didn't win. It sucks being the QB, but at this level, winning is all that matters.

& I agree. If crappy Flacco can do it, anyone can.


But not Matt. Not in Houston.

Wish I could explain it, but I can't. But I'm not going to tell you he sucks because he's thrown for 4000 yards or was on track to throw for 4000 yards in the last 5 seasons. That makes less sense than my, "Anyone but Schaub can do it" argument.

Texanmike02
04-05-2013, 11:00 PM
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes......... doesn't matter, we didn't win. It sucks being the QB, but at this level, winning is all that matters.

& I agree. If crappy Flacco can do it, anyone can.


But not Matt. Not in Houston.

Wish I could explain it, but I can't. But I'm not going to tell you he sucks because he's thrown for 4000 yards or was on track to throw for 4000 yards in the last 5 seasons. That makes less sense than my, "Anyone but Schaub can do it" argument.

Well Manning was considered a choke artist form almost a decade. You just can't convince me that we can't win the big one with Schaub. Maybe we don't but of doesn't fall on just Schaub. It is a team sport. It is like saying a defense can't won the SB with JJ Watt, who has had twice as many cracks as Schaub. Or maybe with Cushing or Andre. Not exactly the same I guess but you get the point. I think we are a lot further from having SB caliber WRs than we are a SB caliber QB. Swap our receivers for Flaccos and they don't win an SB either.

Mike

eriadoc
04-05-2013, 11:36 PM
If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today.

I'm not impressed. I'll just put it that way. And it isn't that he fails, per se. I'm not calling Schaub a scrub. He's a good QB. I don't personally believe he's good enough, but that doesn't mean he's bad. As for the stat, well there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Don Majkowski, Jeff George, Jay Schroeder, Jake Plummer, Scott Mitchell, Bill Kenney, Steve Beurlein and Matt Schaub. Then there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Manning, Marino, Young, Favre, Brees, and Rodgers.

The Pencil Neck
04-06-2013, 01:01 AM
I'm not impressed. I'll just put it that way. And it isn't that he fails, per se. I'm not calling Schaub a scrub. He's a good QB. I don't personally believe he's good enough, but that doesn't mean he's bad. As for the stat, well there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Don Majkowski, Jeff George, Jay Schroeder, Jake Plummer, Scott Mitchell, Bill Kenney, Steve Beurlein and Matt Schaub. Then there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Manning, Marino, Young, Favre, Brees, and Rodgers.

1. Don Majkowski: He put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

2. Jeff George: He put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. (Although he led the league in passing one year with just over 3900)

3. Jay Schroeder: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career. In that season, he was throwing to Gary Clark and Art Monk. Great receivers.

4. Jake Plummer: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

5. Scott Mitchell: Put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. Had a couple of great receivers AND Barry Sanders.

6. Bill Kenney: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 9 year career.

7. Steve Beuerlein: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 14 year career. (I have to admit, I always expected this guy to blossom into a great QB.)

8. Matt Schaub: Put up 3 4000 yard seasons so far in a 9 year career. Including a season with over 4700 yards (something none of those other guys have done.)

One of these 8 QBs is not like the other 7.

You might not like him or the way he plays, but he's a good QB. Can he get it done? Of course he can.

He's not going to make insane throws. He's not going to wow you with his athletic prowess.

He's got room for improvement and I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet. But even so, with the right pieces around him, he can get it done.

eriadoc
04-06-2013, 01:07 AM
You might not like him or the way he plays, but he's a good QB.

Yeah, I read that somewhere earlier in this thread. Hang on, let me dig up the post.

Oh yeah, that was me, in the very post you quoted.

I'm not calling Schaub a scrub. He's a good QB.

By missing that, you seem to have missed the very point of my post.

bckey
04-06-2013, 09:33 AM
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/release.aspx?release_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/history/2012/12/31/4000-yard-seasons-by-quarterback/

That is some great stuff you dug up Eriadoc. The game has definately changed. I got the old You must spread rep.

The Pencil Neck
04-06-2013, 12:50 PM
By missing that, you seem to have missed the very point of my post.

When I say he's a good QB, I mean he's good enough to win a Super Bowl. When you say he's a good QB, you mean he can't win a Super Bowl. Right?

Your tried to counter the stat argument by implying that putting up 4000 yards in a season doesn't make you anything more than a Don Majkowski or a Bill Kenney. And that's true, as far as it goes. My counter to that point is that while some guys were able to put together a single good season, those guys you mentioned weren't able to put them together year after year like Schaub has. You were trying to lump Schaub in with those guys but he doesn't fit. He's better than those guys.

TXAg14
04-06-2013, 01:50 PM
When you compare personnel around Flacco and Schaub, it's easier to see why Flacco won a super bowl.

Schaub has Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels as his main go-to guys. You can talk about Casey, Walter, Posey/Martin/Jean but they didn't factor in as much as the big 3.

Flacco had Boldin, Torrey Smith and a good Jacoby Jones. Also had Ray Rice, Vonta Leach blocking, Dennis Pitta, etc. Flacco, IMO, had much better of a supporting cast. You had to cover Jones, Smith and Boldin down the field on any given play. You had to account for Ray Rice running the ball or off of the screen pass.

With the Texans, you had to cover Andre down the field. You had to worrry about Foster cutting the corner, and you had to cover Daniels over the middle. Other than that, there wasn't too much of a threat from the offense.

I really think if you give a few more weapons to Schaub offensively, you spread the field and really allow for the offense to shine. But if you are only relying on Andre for catches past 15 yards, it's hard for any sort of vertical offense to take place.

eriadoc
04-06-2013, 05:02 PM
When I say he's a good QB, I mean he's good enough to win a Super Bowl. When you say he's a good QB, you mean he can't win a Super Bowl. Right?

Meh, sort of. Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl. Brad Johnson was good enough to win a Super Bowl. Gus Frerotte was good enough to win a Super Bowl. Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler both won Super Bowls. They were all good QBs, at least in the season that they won those Super Bowls. But they couldn't have been one of the primary catalysts to that Super Bowl win on a year to year basis. I don't think Schaub is good enough that he can compensate for shortages elsewhere ont he team. It's a tough subject, because I don't think he's a bad QB, and it's a team game, but I don't have confidence that he's going to do something to win the game when it's on the line like I do/did with lots of other QBs - think Staubach, Montana, the current crop of top notch QBs, etc. So basically what it boils down to is do I think Schaub can pull off a Brad Johnson year? Well, sure. Do I think the team can feel 100% confident in its QB position and count on him to win games? Not at all.

Your tried to counter the stat argument by implying that putting up 4000 yards in a season doesn't make you anything more than a Don Majkowski or a Bill Kenney.

Not exactly. I'm saying there are gradations to that achievement. Schaub's 4770 yard season was one of the highest totals of all time when it happened, and I kind of shrugged my shoulders and said "meh". The team went 6-10 and he racked up a bunch of yards when it didn't matter. IIRC, that was the year that they scored 7 or fewer points in the first half ten times. The defense was awful, but Schaub was lucky to throw a TD in the first half. So when they came out slinging in the second half, what are you going to say? That he was great? The other team was playing bend don't break and trying not to lose a 3TD lead. I don't rank that 4000 yard season on par with some of the really great 4000 yard seasons. Sorry, not impressed. The fact that he's put up 4000 yards three times is good, but that is to a great degree because of the offense and the era. I feel like Jake Plummer could come from a team where he never put up 4000 yards and hit that in Kubiak's offense. Wait, he did.

Anyway, I'm really not trying to bag on Schaub, but I feel like there are gradations in 4000 yard seasons, and Schaub's middle of the pack, IMO, and the number is fast becoming the standard.

infantrycak
04-06-2013, 05:25 PM
Not exactly. I'm saying there are gradations to that achievement. Schaub's 4770 yard season was one of the highest totals of all time when it happened, and I kind of shrugged my shoulders and said "meh". The team went 6-10 and he racked up a bunch of yards when it didn't matter. IIRC, that was the year that they scored 7 or fewer points in the first half ten times. The defense was awful, but Schaub was lucky to throw a TD in the first half. So when they came out slinging in the second half, what are you going to say? That he was great? The other team was playing bend don't break and trying not to lose a 3TD lead. I don't rank that 4000 yard season on par with some of the really great 4000 yard seasons. Sorry, not impressed. The fact that he's put up 4000 yards three times is good, but that is to a great degree because of the offense and the era. I feel like Jake Plummer could come from a team where he never put up 4000 yards and hit that in Kubiak's offense. Wait, he did.

Anyway, I'm really not trying to bag on Schaub, but I feel like there are gradations in 4000 yard seasons, and Schaub's middle of the pack, IMO, and the number is fast becoming the standard.

Yeah, well sometimes stat haters need to check what your eyes are telling you.

2009

1st half - 2658 yds, 19 TD's - passer rating 109.3
2nd half - 2112 yds, 10 TD's

3071 yds and 20 TD's when the margin was 7 or less.
1023 yds and 3 TD's when then margin was over 2 TD's much less your 3 TD assertion.

Sorry, your eyes were wrong.

eriadoc
04-06-2013, 10:16 PM
Yeah, well sometimes stat haters need to check what your eyes are telling you.

2009

1st half - 2658 yds, 19 TD's - passer rating 109.3
2nd half - 2112 yds, 10 TD's

3071 yds and 20 TD's when the margin was 7 or less.
1023 yds and 3 TD's when then margin was over 2 TD's much less your 3 TD assertion.

Sorry, your eyes were wrong.

It's not eyes, it's memory. That what the IIRC was for. So since you posted those stats,that means 2010 was the year to which I referred. In '09, they fell apart in the 2nd half, but in '10 it was the first half. Back to back years they couldn't put a complete game together.

ObsiWan
04-07-2013, 03:35 AM
How did we get so far down this 4,000-yd rabbit trail? Those stats don't necessarily translate into championships. As an example, Peyton Manning has the most 4,000+ seasons of any QB in history, 12.
TWELVE!
Yet having a dozen 4,000-yd seasons has only netted him ONE RING. And goodness knows he had weapons around him.

On the other hand, both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have four rings apiece and yet NEITHER of them is a member of this 4,000-yd passing club (at least according to the site eriadoc pointed us to). You know what the DID have? Pretty damned good supporting casts around them and pretty damned good defenses for when they had off days.

I think we have a pretty damned good defense. However, we could add a couple more pieces to a pretty decent supporting cast.

I'm of the same mindset as TPN (or TexasMike or whoever); you gotta have a good TEAM to win it all. Having a 4,000-yd QB means squat if you don't.
:twocents:

The Pencil Neck
04-07-2013, 11:33 AM
How did we get so far down this 4,000-yd rabbit trail? Those stats don't necessarily translate into championships. As an example, Peyton Manning has the most 4,000+ seasons of any QB in history, 12.
TWELVE!
Yet having a dozen 4,000-yd seasons has only netted him ONE RING. And goodness knows he had weapons around him.

On the other hand, both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have four rings apiece and yet NEITHER of them is a member of this 4,000-yd passing club (at least according to the site eriadoc pointed us to). You know what the DID have? Pretty damned good supporting casts around them and pretty damned good defenses for when they had off days.

I think we have a pretty damned good defense. However, we could add a couple more pieces to a pretty decent supporting cast.

I'm of the same mindset as TPN (or TexasMike or whoever); you gotta have a good TEAM to win it all. Having a 4,000-yd QB means squat if you don't.
:twocents:

^^^^ This.

I think 4000 yard seasons (especially multiple 4000 yard seasons) are a good indicator that the QB is a good QB. If you've got a QB who can consistently throw for over 4000 yards and do it without throwing a lot of interceptions or making a lot of mental mistakes, then that piece of your team isn't what's holding you back.

thunderkyss
04-07-2013, 01:13 PM
Anyway, I'm really not trying to bag on Schaub, but I feel like there are gradations in 4000 yard seasons, and Schaub's middle of the pack, IMO, and the number is fast becoming the standard.

True, again........ becoming. There are QBs that will be helping 4000 yards to become the norm & there are those that aren't. Schaub is one of the ones who will.

He had a bad season. He looked like horse crap. But still put up 4000 yards (4008). That's pretty good for a guy who's meh...

& don't get me wrong, I think he's meh... & while 4000 yards is becoming the norm, how many QBs have hit that number with the regularity that Schaub has? He's got three bonafide seasons in the last 4 years. How many QBs have as many?

I am not a Schaub fan, but I'm not going to belittle the one good thing he's done.

Do I honestly think Schaub can win a Super Bowl?
If Flacco can, hell yeah Schaub can.
But he needed Jacoby to come through in 3 consecutive games.
He needed Torrey Smith to come through in 3 consecutive games
He needed Anquan Bolden to go off in the post season
He needed an OL that had been maligned all season long to step up

Schaub outplayed Flacco all year long & that 4008 yards was part of that.

Lucky
04-07-2013, 01:27 PM
On the other hand, both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have four rings apiece and yet NEITHER of them is a member of this 4,000-yd passing club (at least according to the site eriadoc pointed us to). You know what the DID have? Pretty damned good supporting casts around them and pretty damned good defenses for when they had off days.
You can't really compare numbers from different eras. Montana finished among the top 10 in pass yardage in 10 seasons. Bradshaw did so in 5. Schaub has finished among the top 10 in passing yards twice. If Montana and Bradshaw played in today's NFL, they would most certainly be 4000 yard passers.

Uncle Rico
04-07-2013, 02:01 PM
Schaub needs the defense to step back up to elite level status for him to be a SB winning QB. He wont get you to the promised land with his arm or skill set alone. It can obviously be done, but our defense regressed last year.

Lucky
04-07-2013, 02:11 PM
Schaub needs the defense to step back up to elite level status for him to be a SB winning QB
The defense needs Schaub to step back up to pre-December 2012 status, also. The Texans' starting offense scored only 3 TDs over the last 4 games. The defense was elite against the Bengals in the wildcard round, with Cincy's only TD coming thanks to a Schaub pick 6. It's very fair for the defense to ask for a little help.

The Pencil Neck
04-07-2013, 03:39 PM
The defense needs Schaub to step back up to pre-December 2012 status, also. The Texans' starting offense scored only 3 TDs over the last 4 games. The defense was elite against the Bengals in the wildcard round, with Cincy's only TD coming thanks to a Schaub pick 6. It's very fair for the defense to ask for a little help.

We had a bad December and January with both sides of the ball having issues.

Now, we need to learn from our mistakes, retool, reload, and come back stronger than ever.

Texanmike02
04-07-2013, 03:42 PM
How did we get so far down this 4,000-yd rabbit trail? Those stats don't necessarily translate into championships. As an example, Peyton Manning has the most 4,000+ seasons of any QB in history, 12.
TWELVE!
Yet having a dozen 4,000-yd seasons has only netted him ONE RING. And goodness knows he had weapons around him.

On the other hand, both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have four rings apiece and yet NEITHER of them is a member of this 4,000-yd passing club (at least according to the site eriadoc pointed us to). You know what the DID have? Pretty damned good supporting casts around them and pretty damned good defenses for when they had off days.

I think we have a pretty damned good defense. However, we could add a couple more pieces to a pretty decent supporting cast.

I'm of the same mindset as TPN (or TexasMike or whoever); you gotta have a good TEAM to win it all. Having a 4,000-yd QB means squat if you don't.
:twocents:

Agreed. That Manning only has one ring is evidence that even with the best QB in the league you must surround him with the right talent to win it all. Put together the best post 1980 QB seasons. Manning, Marino, Elway, Favre, Montana, Brady, Brees and Young. There are over 100 seasons between them but only 16 super bowls. The best doesn't always win. Having a great QB gives you a great starting point but it isn't enough. That Manning and Marino have one ring between them should tell you that EVERY QB is the result of the parts around him. Look at Eli. He's not an elite QB. HE had weapons galore. His brother? The pressure was always on him. Peyton could roast you and is flat out the best QB I've ever seen but he always had to do too much. He had to get a lead early so his defense could attack the passer. I was a colts fan between the Oilers and Texans. I watched Manning every week. I reviewed his games like I used to review the Texans back when I posted reviews on the original TT. You can only ask greatness to be great so often. You can't ask a QB to thread the needle every throw. When Eli has won SBs he made some great throws but he didn't do it over and over. That goes for every QB.

I guess what I'm saying is I don't think this team, as it stands, can win a SB with Schaub OR any other QB. Either the defense needs to be great, I mean add another premier LB AND a dominant DL or we need to add another dominant WR and one of the aforementioned players. We ask Schaub to thread too many throws. We flat out don't get open and our running game is not as dominant as it was two years ago. Any team that has an athletic LB to cover Daniels and a top cover safety will give us fits.

Mike

thunderkyss
04-07-2013, 04:34 PM
We had a bad December and January with both sides of the ball having issues.

Now, we need to learn from our mistakes, retool, reload, and come back stronger than ever.

The defense wasn't great in New England in January, but they can only do so much. We had many scoring opportunities where we failed. Heck, Danieal Manning gave them the Red Zone on the opening kick & we had to settle for a field goal.

Yeah, Casey dropped an easy six. But Matt stayed on OD too long on the next play & totally missed a wide open Aj in the back of the endzone. By the time he pulled the trigger, Aj had already gone by.

Had we scored 7 then, no doubt in my mind our defense would have took it to the Patriots.

Texanmike02
04-07-2013, 06:25 PM
The defense wasn't great in New England in January, but they can only do so much. We had many scoring opportunities where we failed. Heck, Danieal Manning gaem the Red Zone on the opening kick & we had to settle for a field goal.

Yeah, Casey dropped an easy six. But Matt stayed on OD too long on the next play & totally missed a wide open Aj in the back of the endzone. By the time he pulled the trigger, Aj had already gone by.

Had we scored 7 then, no doubt in my mind our defense would have took it to the Patriots.

This speaks to how one phase of the game can affect another phase. If the Ol or DL or receivers don't pull their weight you see other players trying to do too much. It is like the OL. You can have 2 great pass blockers look terrible if they play next to someone that doesn't pull their weight. Look rivers last year. His reievers were terrible. Did he suddenly become a rag doll QB? Hell look at ray lewis a few years ago. People said he was done. They get a solid DT and he plays 6 more seasons as a feature of their defense.

Mike

thunderkyss
04-07-2013, 08:34 PM
This speaks to how one phase of the game can affect another phase. If the Ol or DL or receivers don't pull their weight you see other players trying to do too much. It is like the OL. You can have 2 great pass blockers look terrible if they play next to someone that doesn't pull their weight. Look rivers last year. His reievers were terrible. Did he suddenly become a rag doll QB? Hell look at ray lewis a few years ago. People said he was done. They get a solid DT and he plays 6 more seasons as a feature of their defense.

Mike

& it was night & day difference between the way New England played us & the way they played the Ravens.

Against us, they couldn't do anything wrong. Guys we hadn't even heard of had great games on both sides of the ball. Vs the Ravens, Tom Terrific looked meh......

I don't think their defense looked any better than ours did, but that second half, it was all Ravens.

Rey
04-08-2013, 03:39 PM
Schaub has be a bit better than John Kitna and Chad pennington. And really I think most of that has to do with who he's playing with and who he's playing for.

Those aren't terrible QB's.

Hervoyel
04-08-2013, 11:17 PM
1. Don Majkowski: He put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

2. Jeff George: He put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. (Although he led the league in passing one year with just over 3900)

3. Jay Schroeder: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career. In that season, he was throwing to Gary Clark and Art Monk. Great receivers.

4. Jake Plummer: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

5. Scott Mitchell: Put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. Had a couple of great receivers AND Barry Sanders.

6. Bill Kenney: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 9 year career.

7. Steve Beuerlein: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 14 year career. (I have to admit, I always expected this guy to blossom into a great QB.)

8. Matt Schaub: Put up 3 4000 yard seasons so far in a 9 year career. Including a season with over 4700 yards (something none of those other guys have done.)

One of these 8 QBs is not like the other 7.

You might not like him or the way he plays, but he's a good QB. Can he get it done? Of course he can.

He's not going to make insane throws. He's not going to wow you with his athletic prowess.

He's got room for improvement and I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet. But even so, with the right pieces around him, he can get it done.

He is a good QB. Good enough for the right team with the right system, in a year where the injury bug doesn't hit, to win with. You won't win because of him necessarily but you more than likely won't lose because of him either. It's just that when you do lose for some other reason he's not going to be able to counter that and keep it from happening.

I don't think he's got room for improvement however. He's been up against his ceiling for years and at this point after starting 79 games for the Houston Texans in this same offense he's shown you exactly what he's capable of.

thunderkyss
04-09-2013, 08:22 AM
He is a good QB. Good enough for the right team with the right system, in a year where the injury bug doesn't hit, to win with. You won't win because of him necessarily but you more than likely won't lose because of him either. It's just that when you do lose for some other reason he's not going to be able to counter that and keep it from happening.

I don't think he's got room for improvement however. He's been up against his ceiling for years and at this point after starting 79 games for the Houston Texans in this same offense he's shown you exactly what he's capable of.

Not to defend Schaub, just questioning this line of thinking.

He is a good QB. Good enough for the right team with the right system, in a year where the injury bug doesn't hit, to win with. You won't win because of him necessarily but you more than likely won't lose because of him either. It's just that when you do lose for some other reason he's not going to be able to counter that and keep it from happening.


Which Super Bowl winning QB does this not apply to? Definitely applies to your Trent Dilfers & Joe Flacco. We know it applies to your Kurt Warners & Eli Mannings. But doesn't this also apply to your Tom Bradys & Peyton Mannings, and Aaron Rogers?

I understand those QBs have "done it" & it doesn't make "sense" to include Schaub in that conversation. But save Flacco, none of those guys got it done this year. Were they not good enough? In 2012 Peyton & Rogers exited the play offs in the divisional round, same as Schaub. The Broncos didn't even win a Play off game as they got a bye.

Is Schaub as good as those guys? I'm not saying that. I'm not saying he's in the same league. I know he can be as productive. If we're talking wins, his win percentage has been just as good as theirs over the last two years. IMO, there's nothing you can quantify to say he won't win a Super Bowl. He can throw for a lot of yards, he can throw for a lot of first downs, he can throw for a bunch of TDs (I doubt he's ever led the league in passing TDs). He doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

If anything (& if this team keeps improving) Schaub's Super Bowl is off in the future, where those guys' are in the past.

kingtexan
04-09-2013, 08:27 AM
1. Don Majkowski: He put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

2. Jeff George: He put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. (Although he led the league in passing one year with just over 3900)

3. Jay Schroeder: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career. In that season, he was throwing to Gary Clark and Art Monk. Great receivers.

4. Jake Plummer: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

5. Scott Mitchell: Put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. Had a couple of great receivers AND Barry Sanders.

6. Bill Kenney: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 9 year career.

7. Steve Beuerlein: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 14 year career. (I have to admit, I always expected this guy to blossom into a great QB.)

8. Matt Schaub: Put up 3 4000 yard seasons so far in a 9 year career. Including a season with over 4700 yards (something none of those other guys have done.)

One of these 8 QBs is not like the other 7.

You might not like him or the way he plays, but he's a good QB. Can he get it done? Of course he can.

He's not going to make insane throws. He's not going to wow you with his athletic prowess.

He's got room for improvement and I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet. But even so, with the right pieces around him, he can get it done.

Cant compare the different era's. Matt is playing at a time when the top QB's put up 5K plus. Back then the QB's and receivers were getting mugged, and now you cant even look at either one sideways without getting a penalty. Bad comparison in my opinion.

thunderkyss
04-09-2013, 08:48 AM
Cant compare the different era's. Matt is playing at a time when the top QB's put up 5K plus. Back then the QB's and receivers were getting mugged, and now you cant even look at either one sideways without getting a penalty. Bad comparison in my opinion.

I don't know. Throwing for 4,000 yards in a winning season is still impressive to me.

Especially when it's done year in & year out.

Hervoyel
04-09-2013, 09:45 AM
Not to defend Schaub, just questioning this line of thinking.



Which Super Bowl winning QB does this not apply to? Definitely applies to your Trent Dilfers & Joe Flacco. We know it applies to your Kurt Warners & Eli Mannings. But doesn't this also apply to your Tom Bradys & Peyton Mannings, and Aaron Rogers?

I understand those QBs have "done it" & it doesn't make "sense" to include Schaub in that conversation. But save Flacco, none of those guys got it done this year. Were they not good enough? In 2012 Peyton & Rogers exited the play offs in the divisional round, same as Schaub. The Broncos didn't even win a Play off game as they got a bye.

Is Schaub as good as those guys? I'm not saying that. I'm not saying he's in the same league. I know he can be as productive. If we're talking wins, his win percentage has been just as good as theirs over the last two years. IMO, there's nothing you can quantify to say he won't win a Super Bowl. He can throw for a lot of yards, he can throw for a lot of first downs, he can throw for a bunch of TDs (I doubt he's ever led the league in passing TDs). He doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

If anything (& if this team keeps improving) Schaub's Super Bowl is off in the future, where those guys' are in the past.

I think most of it applies to almost all of them. Even the Brady and Manning "demi-gods" can't compensate for everything. Blow their roster up with injuries and they can't fix it all by themselves. I think their biggest advantage is simply will to win and grasp of the game. Hell we don't even know what would happen to Brady outside of New England. Maybe if he went to Cleveland he'd get beaten all to hell and become a very ordinary version of himself. Maybe if he'd started out there he'd never have become the legend he is today. My thinking on this is not so much that Schaub isn't special so we should kick him to the curb. It's more along the lines of almost none of them are special. As long as you take your "good enough" QB and put him in a system that takes advantage of what he can do and build a team around him to do it then you got a chance.

We don't have one of the demi-gods so we have to put him in a system that fits with his skills and limitations. We've got to get him good protection (we were there before we blew it all up last year), a great running game (check, except for last years line/FB issues), and a great defense (never had that until Wade got here). He's also going to need some WR's who make him look better than he is and we haven't hit on one of those guys since Andre Johnson was drafted in 2003.

Schaub fails the Texas repeatedly because the Texans have failed Schaub equally as often. I've concluded that if they're not going to do any more than they have to fix the offense then they better go get a demi-god. This square-peg, round-hole **** isn't working.

GNTLEWOLF
04-09-2013, 10:41 AM
I think most of it applies to almost all of them. Even the Brady and Manning "demi-gods" can't compensate for everything. Blow their roster up with injuries and they can't fix it all by themselves. I think their biggest advantage is simply will to win and grasp of the game. Hell we don't even know what would happen to Brady outside of New England. Maybe if he went to Cleveland he'd get beaten all to hell and become a very ordinary version of himself. Maybe if he'd started out there he'd never have become the legend he is today. My thinking on this is not so much that Schaub isn't special so we should kick him to the curb. It's more along the lines of almost none of them are special. As long as you take your "good enough" QB and put him in a system that takes advantage of what he can do and build a team around him to do it then you got a chance.

We don't have one of the demi-gods so we have to put him in a system that fits with his skills and limitations. We've got to get him good protection (we were there before we blew it all up last year), a great running game (check, except for last years line/FB issues), and a great defense (never had that until Wade got here). He's also going to need some WR's who make him look better than he is and we haven't hit on one of those guys since Andre Johnson was drafted in 2003.

Schaub fails the Texas repeatedly because the Texans have failed Schaub equally as often. I've concluded that if they're not going to do any more than they have to fix the offense then they better go get a demi-god. This square-peg, round-hole **** isn't working.

Above is a great assessment of where the Texans are and have been with Schaub... Must spread rep....Geeze!!

kingtexan
04-09-2013, 11:03 AM
Schaub fails the Texas repeatedly because the Texans have failed Schaub equally as often.

Not sure how the Texans have failed Schaub. Granted he hasn't had two top tier WR like ATL, or the top O-line in the league, but he has had weapons that he hasn't really been able to utilize to their full potential. I see it like the kid who just barely learns to ride a bike without training wheels and complains that he isn't getting his CR250R yet. Go fast with what you have first, then we can invest in an upgrade to make you go faster. Hit the receivers you have when it counts, then we might be able to justify going out and getting that other #1 type talent.

The Pencil Neck
04-09-2013, 11:56 AM
Cant compare the different era's. Matt is playing at a time when the top QB's put up 5K plus. Back then the QB's and receivers were getting mugged, and now you cant even look at either one sideways without getting a penalty. Bad comparison in my opinion.

I didn't bring those guys up. I was responding to someone who compared Schaub to those guys.

Schaub through for 4770 yards BEFORE all these guys you're talking about started throwing for over 5000. At the time he did that, it was the 6th most yards in a season EVER.

With the rules changes, that's dropped to 14th.

NOW Schaub isn't being asked to put up those kinds of numbers week-in and week-out anymore. He's being asked to rely on his run game.

Rey
04-09-2013, 12:32 PM
Schaub through for 4770 yards BEFORE all these guys you're talking about started throwing for over 5000. At the time he did that, it was the 6th most yards in a season EVER.


You realize that when Matt did that he threw the ball more times than anyone else did that year. All time he'd have been in the top 30 for passes attempted in a single season.

Also, that year We had two players combine for almost 1,000 yards of YAC...Slaton and Dre did a lot of running after the catch that year. There was only one other team that was in that same stratosphere and it was the Chargers with Gates and Sproles.

But Rivers threw the ball about 100 less times than Schaub and still was top ten in yardage.


Since 2008, between Slaton, Andre and Foster Schaub has had AT LEAST 1 top ten weapon in YAC. Some years he had 2. No other team has had that and the only team to come close is NE with Welker.

If you go back and look Schaub has had a lot of help with YAC. Arian was even #2 behind Lesean McCoy one year by not that great of a margin.

Schaub has put up some great stats, but he has been helped by 1) throwing a lot 2) completing high percentage passes and getting substantial YAC from his targets

thunderkyss
04-09-2013, 12:33 PM
Not sure how the Texans have failed Schaub. Granted he hasn't had two top tier WR like ATL, or the top O-line in the league, but he has had weapons that he hasn't really been able to utilize to their full potential. I see it like the kid who just barely learns to ride a bike without training wheels and complains that he isn't getting his CR250R yet. Go fast with what you have first, then we can invest in an upgrade to make you go faster. Hit the receivers you have when it counts, then we might be able to justify going out and getting that other #1 type talent.

I don't know what it is. But there is something about those teams that make their role players step up.

Shane Vareen.

Who the heck is Shane Vareen? If he had not stepped up for New England..

Did he play like that on that stage because of his QB? His Coach? His Family & friends at home?

Who knows, but we need our role players to step it up in similar situations. All this talk about James Casey & he dropped the gimmiest touch down I've ever seen in a play off game. He catches that one, who's to say Schaub isn't looking for him more often the rest of the game?

Jacoby Jones. We had been waiting for him to step it up & help us win a game (much less a big game) for four years. He's in Baltimore for one year & had the best play off game any receiver we drafted ever had (& yes, that's hyperbole). 1 catch for a TD, yeah. But it was a big catch.

The Pencil Neck
04-09-2013, 12:51 PM
You realize that when Matt did that he threw the ball more times than anyone else did that year.

Also, that year We had two players combine for almost 1,000 yards of YAC...Slaton and Dre did a lot of running after the catch that year. There was only one other team that was in that same stratosphere and it was the Chargers with Gates and Sproles.

But Rivers threw the ball about 100 less times than Schaub and still was top ten in yardage.


Since 2008, between Slaton, Andre and Foster Schaub has had AT LEAST 1 top ten weapon in YAC. Some years he had 2. No other team has had that and the only team to come close is NE with Welker.

If you go back and look Schaub has had a lot of help with YAC. Arian was even #2 behind Lesean McCoy one year by not that great of a margin.

Schaub has put up some great stats, but he has been helped by 1) throwing a lot 2) completing high percentage passes and getting substantial YAC from his targets

Yep. I know that. I don't consider that a bad thing.

One of the cornerstones of the West Coast Offense is YAC. It's about completing high percentage passes.

It's actually a great point. Some people here want some sort of extremely vertical, down-the-field passing attack and when they don't get that, they're all grumpy because our offense is too conservative. I've got no problem with a conservative, West Coast approach to the passing game. I've got no problem with an offense that takes what the defense gives them. As long as they're winning. And right now, we're winning.

ObsiWan
04-09-2013, 02:08 PM
The defense wasn't great in New England in January, but they can only do so much. We had many scoring opportunities where we failed. Heck, Danieal Manning gave them the Red Zone on the opening kick & we had to settle for a field goal.

Yeah, Casey dropped an easy six. But Matt stayed on OD too long on the next play & totally missed a wide open Aj in the back of the endzone. By the time he pulled the trigger, Aj had already gone by.

Had we scored 7 then, no doubt in my mind our defense would have took it to the Patriots.

if Casey could catch there would have been no second down.



no... I won't "let it go"
not until the Jacoby haters "let THAT go"
:op

Hervoyel
04-09-2013, 02:11 PM
Not sure how the Texans have failed Schaub. Granted he hasn't had two top tier WR like ATL, or the top O-line in the league, but he has had weapons that he hasn't really been able to utilize to their full potential. I see it like the kid who just barely learns to ride a bike without training wheels and complains that he isn't getting his CR250R yet. Go fast with what you have first, then we can invest in an upgrade to make you go faster. Hit the receivers you have when it counts, then we might be able to justify going out and getting that other #1 type talent.

I'd call the running game when he got here something of a failure. The lack of any semblance of a defense until 2011 is also a failure. Not coming up with additional viable WR options year after year is something of another failure. Ok, they didn't literally fail Schaub. They failed themselves and in the process wasted some great years from Schaub and from AJ, and from Foster.

Rey
04-09-2013, 02:30 PM
The defense needs Schaub to step back up to pre-December 2012 status, also. The Texans' starting offense scored only 3 TDs over the last 4 games. The defense was elite against the Bengals in the wildcard round, with Cincy's only TD coming thanks to a Schaub pick 6. It's very fair for the defense to ask for a little help.

Damn...

I had forgotten about that pick 6...:cookie:

76Texan
04-09-2013, 03:32 PM
No Rey.

I had mentioned this before.
There's a site that track QB Air Yard per Attempt.
Schaub is consistently in the top tier ever since he's been here.
He even ranked first one year among eligible QBs.

Rey
04-09-2013, 03:33 PM
No Rey.

I had mentioned this before.
There's a site that track QB Air Yard per Attempt.
Schaub is consistently in the top tier ever since he's been here.
He even ranked first one year among eligible QBs.

Yards per attempt has absolutely 0 to do with what I wrote.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch

76Texan
04-09-2013, 03:40 PM
Yards per attempt has absolutely 0 to do with what I wrote.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingYardsAfterCatch

AIR yards, Rey, AIR yards!

Rey
04-09-2013, 03:44 PM
AIR yards, Rey, AIR yards!

Which has 0 to do with what I posted.

But anyways using your air yards for this past year Schaub would've been in the bottom half of the leauge...

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

76Texan
04-09-2013, 03:46 PM
There are only two components in passing yardage: Air Yard and Yard After Catch.

If you go to Sportingcharts.com, put everything since 2007 into a spread sheet, qualify the QBs (let's say a minimum of 1,500 pass attempts over those six years), Schaub is easily somewhere between top 5-10 in Air Yard per Attempt.

76Texan
04-09-2013, 03:50 PM
Which has 0 to do with what I posted.

But anyways using your air yards for this past year Schaub would've been in the bottom half of the leauge...

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

I've seen Adv NFL Stats before; the guy is rather new (and working by himself).
He's a genius in probability and statistic, I grant him that, but his numbers are different from Sportingcharts. He doesn't have previous numbers so I don't think I know where he pulls the stats from.

But, yeah, Schaub's number this year is right below average.

Rey
04-09-2013, 04:06 PM
There are only two components in passing yardage: Air Yard and Yard After Catch.

If you go to Sportingcharts.com, put everything since 2007 into a spread sheet, qualify the QBs (let's say a minimum of 1,500 pass attempts over those six years), Schaub is easily somewhere between top 5-10 in Air Yard per Attempt.

One more time...

That has nothing to do with what I said.

One reason that you can't look at the per is because since 2007 Schaub has played in a full 16 games only 3 times. If you just compare his own stats from year to year you can see that his YPA averages are generally higher in seasons that he didn't finish. There is a big difference between throwing about 300 to throwing about 600 passes.

That's why I look year to year...And from year to year Schaub has benefited greatly from YAC. Not moreso than most of the league in any given year, but over the time span of about '08 to present Schaub has had top ten guys in YAC each year....sometimes more than one in a given season...

You can't average that stat out because one big year could skew your entire average for the time span. Whereas if you look at in on a year to year basis you can see who most often benefits from YAC...And Schaub has clearly benefited from it a great deal...

76Texan
04-09-2013, 04:37 PM
If you want to talk straight YAC in full year only, you can do that as well.
Schaub didn't benefit from that as much as some other QBs like Brady, Stafford, and perhaps Brees, too.

No matter how you slice it, Brady is still the king of YaC benificiary.

I still don't see how you can disregard numbers from a starting QB that play 10-11 games in certain year. The fact that a QB got injured and wasn't able to finish a year has no bearing on whether he benefits from YAC or that his AY per attempt is meaningless.

You can say that with back-up QBs, or those who played something like less than half the year, I would agree to that.

Rey
04-09-2013, 05:09 PM
If you want to talk straight YAC in full year only, you can do that as well.
Schaub didn't benefit from that as much as some other QBs like Brady, Stafford, and perhaps Brees, too.

No matter how you slice it, Brady is still the king of YaC benificiary.



I don't know what else to say but you are incorrect.

http://community.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/examining-qb-yards-after-catch.html

Drew Brees by far benefits the most from YAC as a whole.

But what you can also see is that even if you give Schaub the difference in their YAC so that it was equal, he's still not passing for that many yards.

2012Champs
04-09-2013, 05:25 PM
I don't know what else to say but you are incorrect.

http://community.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/examining-qb-yards-after-catch.html

Drew Brees by far benefits the most from YAC as a whole.

But what you can also see is that even if you give Schaub the difference in their YAC so that it was equal, he's still not passing for that many yards.



Well a couple post up you say 08-current, then post a link to 06-10 its hard to argue for or against a moving target. Maybe on your 06-10 list you should work the math of yac as a % of yards because Matt is at 44.9% Drew is at 46.8 Favre 50.66 Rivers 46.36 Manning 40.1 McNabb 48.12 Brady 46.46 Romo 43.8 Eli 41.1 Big Ben 41.49 Jason Campbell 51 Palmer 41.1


also per that link which I find interesting

My formula for "Normalized, Optimized, Air Yards Per Dropback" is:

NOAY/DB = (Passing Yards - Sack Yards - YAC - 32*INT)/(Attempts + Sacks) + 3.9

The 32 is in there because that preserves the ratio of INT and yardage Brian used in his passer formula. The 3.9 is in there because it gives the average 2010 QB a NOAY/DB of roughly 6.2, which is the average yards per attempt this year.

Here is the table of those same 39 players again, this time sorted by NOAY/DB, with their traditional Y/A numbers also listed for comparison:


Player NOAY/DB Y/A



Peyton Manning 7.39 7.54
Tom Brady 7.07 7.7
Matt Ryan 7.01 6.9
Tony Romo 6.98 8.04
Aaron Rodgers 6.95 7.98
Philip Rivers 6.95 8.04
Jeff Garcia 6.91 7.25
Matt Schaub 6.89 7.86

Rey
04-09-2013, 05:37 PM
Well a couple post up you say 08-current, then post a link to 06-10 its hard to argue for or against a moving target. Maybe on your 06-10 list you should work the math of yac as a % of yards because Matt is at 44.9% Drew is at 46.8 Favre 50.66 Rivers 46.36 Manning 40.1 McNabb 48.12 Brady 46.46 Romo 43.8 Eli 41.1 Big Ben 41.49 Jason Campbell 51 Palmer 41.1

Try to pay attention. I posted that link to show some kind of total for YAC over a time period.

These are not regular stats, so there aren't many sites where you can find that info.

As far as the percentages, I already posted a site which gives last years percentages.

2012Champs
04-09-2013, 05:45 PM
Try to pay attention. I posted that link to show some kind of total for YAC over a time period.

These are not regular stats, so there aren't many sites where you can find that info.

As far as the percentages, I already posted a site which gives last years percentages.



I did pay attention and your stats/time periods moved


as for your link %yac Matt is 43% 21st out of 40

median is 43.2 so more people had a higer % of yac than matt did. Most of his yards came in the air

Rey
04-09-2013, 05:57 PM
I did pay attention and your stats/time periods moved


as for your link %yac Matt is 43% 21st out of 40


No you didn't pay attention. No stats or time period moved. The second link I posted was just from a shorter time period, not moved.

And you sound ridiculous and this is my point about you not paying attention. No one said Schaub sucked or that he would be at the bottom.

This conversation started with PN when he talked about Schaubs league leading passing yards in 2009. In 2009 not only did Schaub throw the ball more than anyone else, but he also was not at the top of any other category except Total Yards.

Pay attention. That doesn't mean he sucks or was not good, but what it means is that league leading yardage he put up was the result of other things...Mainly his attempts and the help he had with YAC...

median is 43.2 so more people had a higer % of yac than matt did. Most of his yards came in the air

Which really isn't relevant since everyone is throwing a different amount of passes, but you asked for it so I told you where it was. |But if you remove guys with less than 250 attempts he's closer to the bottom than the top...

infantrycak
04-09-2013, 07:01 PM
This conversation started with PN when he talked about Schaubs league leading passing yards in 2009. In 2009 not only did Schaub throw the ball more than anyone else, but he also was not at the top of any other category except Total Yards.

Pay attention. That doesn't mean he sucks or was not good, but what it means is that league leading yardage he put up was the result of other things...Mainly his attempts and the help he had with YAC...

That is just false logic. You don't have to lead across the board. He was solid across the board. He was 4th on completion %, he was 7th on QB rating, 5th on ypa.

This is in order of attempts. If you give Manning an equal number of attempts he is still over 200 yards shy of Schaub. Brady would be 280 yds back. Cutler 1000 yds back. Romo 120 yds back. Aaron Rodgers 120 yds back.

Your YAC argument cracks me up since so many people claim we don't get YAC either because our receivers suck or because Schaub doesn't hit them correctly. Y'all need to huddle up and figure out if Schaub is the YAC king or the YAC killer.

2012Champs
04-09-2013, 07:04 PM
No you didn't pay attention. No stats or time period moved. The second link I posted was just from a shorter time period, not moved.

And you sound ridiculous and this is my point about you not paying attention. No one said Schaub sucked or that he would be at the bottom.

This conversation started with PN when he talked about Schaubs league leading passing yards in 2009. In 2009 not only did Schaub throw the ball more than anyone else, but he also was not at the top of any other category except Total Yards.

Pay attention. That doesn't mean he sucks or was not good, but what it means is that league leading yardage he put up was the result of other things...Mainly his attempts and the help he had with YAC...



Which really isn't relevant since everyone is throwing a different amount of passes, but you asked for it so I told you where it was. |But if you remove guys with less than 250 attempts he's closer to the bottom than the top...


You were talking about 08-current then posted 06-10 stats 8 guys had 250 attempts or less in your link and 5/8 had a higher % but 3 didn't so that doesn't really push him further down the list

thunderkyss
04-09-2013, 11:47 PM
:popcorn:

2012Champs
04-10-2013, 07:58 AM
That is just false logic. You don't have to lead across the board. He was solid across the board. He was 4th on completion %, he was 7th on QB rating, 5th on ypa.

This is in order of attempts. If you give Manning an equal number of attempts he is still over 200 yards shy of Schaub. Brady would be 280 yds back. Cutler 1000 yds back. Romo 120 yds back. Aaron Rodgers 120 yds back.

Your YAC argument cracks me up since so many people claim we don't get YAC either because our receivers suck or because Schaub doesn't hit them correctly. Y'all need to huddle up and figure out if Schaub is the YAC king or the YAC killer.



Either I missed your last paragraph yesterday or you added after I left the thread but that's a damn good point I hadn't thought of

thunderkyss
04-10-2013, 10:54 AM
Your YAC argument cracks me up since so many people claim we don't get YAC either because our receivers suck or because Schaub doesn't hit them correctly. Y'all need to huddle up and figure out if Schaub is the YAC king or the YAC killer.

Uh.... yeah, I'll have to do some more figuring on that one.


But I'll come up with something.

:kitten: