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View Full Version : 2013 Compensatory Picks ANNOUNCED tomorrow


the wonger need food
03-17-2013, 09:39 PM
Looks like tomorrow (3/18) is the day we get word on draft compensation from 2012 free agent losses. Most have predicted that the Texans will get (1) 3rd and (3) 6th rounders based on the losses of Mario, Briesel, Dressen and Allen.

Common sense would seemingly dictate that this frees up the regular 3rd and 6th for trade bait or to move up a few spots in the 3rd or 2nd round. Given the ultra-conservative nature of the Texans organization I don't think we can expect any big splash type moves.

What do you guys see as options?

drs23
03-17-2013, 10:02 PM
Looks like tomorrow (3/18) is the day we get word on draft compensation from 2012 free agent losses. Most have predicted that the Texans will get (1) 3rd and (3) 6th rounders based on the losses of Mario, Briesel, Dressen and Allen.

Common sense would seemingly dictate that this frees up the regular 3rd and 6th for trade bait or to move up a few spots in the 3rd or 2nd round. Given the ultra-conservative nature of the Texans organization I don't think we can expect any big splash type moves.

What do you guys see as options?

Rick Smith has a well know approach of moving all over the board, both up and back but mostly back to gather more ammo to move up later where the real value is. But I'm sure that's because he doesn't have to balls to make a *splash* move. Whatever the hell that is. I'm gonna sit back and watch and see how it all works out.

Then I'm going to log on to hear how incompetent he is and how he has no business being a GM in the NFL.:choke:

I love the offseason almost as much as the season it's self. Ain't a damn thing these players or the FO staff can do to please the folks on the interwebs.

I LOVE it!

:kitten::kitten:

the wonger need food
03-17-2013, 10:15 PM
Rick Smith has a well know approach of moving all over the board, both up and back but mostly back to gather more ammo to move up later where the real value is. But I'm sure that's because he doesn't have to balls to make a *splash* move. Whatever the hell that is. I'm gonna sit back and watch and see how it all works out.

Then I'm going to log on to hear how incompetent he is and how he has no business being a GM in the NFL.:choke:

I love the offseason almost as much as the season it's self. Ain't a damn thing these players or the FO staff can do to please the folks on the interwebs.

I LOVE it!

:kitten::kitten:


A little sensative about Rick Smith I see.

2 playoff wins in 7 seasons. That's on the entire organization including your boy. They really need to make a bold move this offseason unless they are content with simply filling seats which seems to be the MO these days.

panamamyers
03-17-2013, 10:27 PM
Give up a 1st and a 2nd this year and next to move up to 9 and get Dion Jordan.

infantrycak
03-17-2013, 10:33 PM
2 playoff wins in 7 seasons.

You are running all over the MB spamming this comment. First off, this is about to be Smith's 7th draft. So far he is 2 playoff appearances in 6 seasons.

Second your whine this has some sort of statistical significance is ridiculous when the playoff runs came in THE LAST TWO YEARS. I.E. it is dumb to ***** on a high. 0 of 4 - good time to *****. O of 4 goes to 2 of 6 - not so much.

ArlingtonTexan
03-17-2013, 10:41 PM
About the only clear thing that I have seen in the sepculation is the the Texans will get a 3rd for Mario. some think that the texans will get another extra pick or up to three extra picks.

That said, i have no idea why the NFL believes that not making a clear formula for these compensatory picks is a good thing for the teams or its fans.

mussop
03-17-2013, 10:42 PM
Give up a 1st and a 2nd this year and next to move up to 9 and get Dion Jordan.

I like Jordan but hell no! He ain't worth that much.

panamamyers
03-17-2013, 10:44 PM
Was just throwing it out there as an option since it seemed OP was looking for wild ideas to chew on.

steelbtexan
03-17-2013, 11:35 PM
A little sensative about Rick Smith I see.

2 playoff wins in 7 seasons. That's on the entire organization including your boy. They really need to make a bold move this offseason unless they are content with simply filling seats which seems to be the MO these days.

That's been the MO since the Texans inception. Winning is just a bonus, this is how a man invests 200-300 mil and turns it into 1.2 bil and counting.

steelbtexan
03-17-2013, 11:40 PM
Looks like it's about time to start the TT mock draft. SM hasn't been around much who wants to run it?

drs23
03-18-2013, 12:07 AM
Looks like it's about time to start the TT mock draft. SM hasn't been around much who wants to run it?

That's a pretty good job there steelb. Heck you run a company and it's personnel surely you've got time for the TT mock draft. :fingergun:

I've been trying to decide if I have time to participate this season as at the moment it's nowhere near as hectic as it was last year on the shop front.

steelbtexan
03-18-2013, 12:22 AM
That's a pretty good job there steelb. Heck you run a company and it's personnel surely you've got time for the TT mock draft. :fingergun:

I've been trying to decide if I have time to participate this season as at the moment it's nowhere near as hectic as it was last year on the shop front.

Nope understaffed at the moment and have had some minor health issues. Better, but it's time to get back to work.

You should run it, your great with people and very even keeled. LOL

the wonger need food
03-18-2013, 12:22 AM
You are running all over the MB spamming this comment. First off, this is about to be Smith's 7th draft. So far he is 2 playoff appearances in 6 seasons.

Second your whine this has some sort of statistical significance is ridiculous when the playoff runs came in THE LAST TWO YEARS. I.E. it is dumb to ***** on a high. 0 of 4 - good time to *****. O of 4 goes to 2 of 6 - not so much.

Good spin, but unfortunately facts are facts... this is Rick Smith's 8th season as GM. Just because he wasn't part of the draft in 2006 doesn't mean he didn't occupy the position.

2 playoff wins in 7 seasons is a simple fact. Not sure how a fact is considered a "whine" unless you have issues processing information that you dislike.

Either way, it's my opinion that the organization has been a relative failure on the field and the numbers kind of bare that out. I'm sorry that you disagree.

ObsiWan
03-18-2013, 01:21 AM
Good spin, but unfortunately facts are facts... this is Rick Smith's 8th season as GM. Just because he wasn't part of the draft in 2006 doesn't mean he didn't occupy the position.

2 playoff wins in 7 seasons is a simple fact. Not sure how a fact is considered a "whine" unless you have issues processing information that you dislike.

Either way, it's my opinion that the organization has been a relative failure on the field and the numbers kind of bare that out. I'm sorry that you disagree.

So let me get this straight; you consider two consecutive division titles a fail??
You're saying going 22-10 over the past two seasons a "relative failure on the field"??
iI don't see how you can count 2006 thru 2009 as potential winning seasons if you knew the cast of castaways we had filling up our roster.

Makes no sense.

greekdbag
03-18-2013, 02:44 AM
These guys have not liked Kubiak or Smith for a long time now. They probably wanted them gone after '08. No matter what the team does and no matter how many games they win, they will still find something to moan about. I'm not a big fan of Kubiak either but I am happy with two straight division titles. And I expect them to be contenders year in and year out. If they sh&t the bed this year, then I will be right back to wanting them gone.

Insideop
03-18-2013, 02:54 AM
Good spin, but unfortunately facts are facts... this is Rick Smith's 8th season as GM. Just because he wasn't part of the draft in 2006 doesn't mean he didn't occupy the position.

Huh? :confused: Are you saying the 2006 Draft is his "fault" even though he wasn't a part of the Texans organization yet? I'm sure he'd be glad to take credit for that draft. It's probably one of the best drafts the Texans ever had! :)

2 playoff wins in 7 seasons is a simple fact.

Yes, that's a fact, but you left off an important bit of information. Those 2 playoff wins came in the last 2 years of that 7 year span. That's a fact too that has some bearing on how you should look at the whole picture. It's a progression; a building of the team through the Draft that takes time. Granted, it's been slow while other teams "seem" to take only a year or 2 to turn around. But, every team and every situation is different. The Texans were starting basically at "ground zero" when Kubes got here, and only AJ is left from the old team he inherited. Heck, only OD is left from that 1st draft Kubes had in 06, and that was considered a great draft.

Is Smith perfect? Hardly. He's had his share of mistakes (Okoye), but overall, I think he and Kubes, and now Wade, have done a good job building the team. You and I may not like all of their picks, FA signings, FA losses, trades, etc..., but we're not privy to all the info they have and can only speculate about what's happening behind the scenes. The proof is in wins and losses, and the last 2 years they've won more than they lost (22-10), have 2 Division titles, and 2 playoff wins. It's not a Super Bowl win but I believe they are heading in that direction, and McNair must think so too and is willing to give Smith/Kubes that chance or he would have fired them. JMO!

Maddict5
03-18-2013, 04:30 AM
i think its funny that some texans fans are so blinded by hate that they cant see that smith is a good gm.. not perfect by any means but has one of the highest batting averages in terms of successful FA & draft records. seriously, hes almost right up there with belichick & newsome if you compare his tenure with theirs.

obviously it hasnt meant a SB yet but that we're now a consistent winner that is widely regarded as one of the most talented rosters in the league... yet the blind ppl think he should be let go because they can point to a couple of failed moves & decisions. guess what? nobody gets anything close to perfection in personnel. honestly, its makes ppl sound clueless and i know i zone out the rest of their posts when i see it. its like asking to cut a arian or aj if they have a play that results in a loss

Scooter
03-18-2013, 06:47 AM
ignoring the hate, i think it's very likely that we stay put and load up on picks. we lost fringe starters but kept our core, we need depth more than locks.

that being said, i would love to see us trade up (using our comp picks to round out the draft). as i've said repeatedly, we're a RT and WR2 away from being a complete offense. wade phillips has exceptional talent at every tier - 2 stud DE's, a stud ILB, 2 CB's, and a safety - with competent talent mixed in (including early picks reed and mercilus). i want to see us focus resources on offense for the next two seasons and give wade the back half - athletes and gamers that he can progressively work with.

we've become a top 5 offense with a backup quarterback, a 30+ receiver with no one behind him, late round tightends, an undrafted runningback, an unwanted first round left tackle, and a bunch of nobodies on the line. think on that the next time you assume another coach could simply drop in and improve our game. it's past time we focused on giving kubiak some real ammo.

Lucky
03-18-2013, 07:42 AM
we've become a top 5 offense with a backup quarterback, a 30+ receiver and no one else, late round tightends, an undrafted runningback, an unwanted first round left tackle, and a bunch of nobodies on the line. think on that the next time you assume another coach could simply drop in and improve our game. it's past time we focused on giving kubiak some real ammo.
I agree with much of what you've said. But the offense has 6 of the 8 largest contracts the Texans have on the books. If that's not "real ammo" then they shouldn't have handed out those contracts.

I think the Texans need to do whatever they must to get the offense back "on the right track". If that means getting a WR or RT or both, they should do that. Most importantly, they need to get the QB playing better than he did the last part of the season. If that doesn't happen, it won't matter what else they do.

Scooter
03-18-2013, 08:10 AM
i see that it's offensive heavy regarding the contracts, but that's just because of what came up - schaub, foster and brown this year with daniels last year if i remember correctly (and AJ of course). those numbers will flip when kareem, watt, cushing, and the defense come into their deals. that being said, my stance doesnt change. we have created talent from very underwhelming molds ... i say it's past time that kubiak had raw materials like mangold to work with instead of myers. he should have first round targets like crabtree and davis. he should have the depth to run any and every play that he thinks will help us win.

as for schaub, i'm with the masses that it's time we find a replacement, but i feel we need to groom someone. schaub is very much capable of leading us to the superbowl, assuming health and a few bounces. what he lacks is opportunity. give him wade's defense and targets better than kevin walter, and i think many will be surprised at what schaub is actually capable of.

IDEXAN
03-18-2013, 08:15 AM
I think the Texans need to do whatever they must to get the offense back "on the right track". If that means getting a WR or RT or both, they should do that.
I think the situation at RT with Newt's not so minor surgery in just the last couple of months is the most under reported personnel issue the Texans have in this offseason. I'd definitely go so far as to say there's some chance the Texans use their top pick on an OT, and look for Syracuse's Justin Pugh to be a real "sleeper" for the Texans pick at tackle. And WR has been an obvious top need for sometime now, but it's so difficult to take a WR coming right out of college and then have him becoming a real contributor his rookie year, so I see the Texans looking for help in FA besides drafting a WR high.

sandman
03-18-2013, 09:28 AM
Facts can be just as misrepresented as statistics.

Let me show you:

Since Kubiak and Smith have joined the organization and had control over the personnel (see: HWSNBN), there has been only one losing season and have an overall winning record during that tenure.

Outside of one fluke season - and it's a fluke based on what occurred the seasons before and after - the wins have consistently increased from 6 to 8 to 9 to 10 to 12.

They've had a Top 5 Offense, a Top 5 Defense, the top QB, the top WR and the top RB at some point over the last few years.

Two straight Divisional titles, going 22-10 including winning road records in both season, and winning two playoff games.

To quote "A Few Good Men": These are the facts, and the facts do not lie.

That being said, we ALL know that this does not accurately portray the complete state of this organization. Just like saying Rick Smith is a bad GM because he hasn't orchestrated a SB-winning squad during his tenure.

powda
03-18-2013, 10:08 AM
Facts can be just as misrepresented as statistics.

Let me show you:

Since Kubiak and Smith have joined the organization and had control over the personnel (see: HWSNBN), there has been only one losing season and have an overall winning record during that tenure.

Outside of one fluke season - and it's a fluke based on what occurred the seasons before and after - the wins have consistently increased from 6 to 8 to 9 to 10 to 12.

They've had a Top 5 Offense, a Top 5 Defense, the top QB, the top WR and the top RB at some point over the last few years.

Two straight Divisional titles, going 22-10 including winning road records in both season, and winning two playoff games.

To quote "A Few Good Men": These are the facts, and the facts do not lie.

That being said, we ALL know that this does not accurately portray the complete state of this organization. Just like saying Rick Smith is a bad GM because he hasn't orchestrated a SB-winning squad during his tenure.

All great and compelling details for anyone who believes the sky is falling. The other side of that coin is your team watched the Superbowl on TV just like the last place team in the NFL. Another consideration is your evaluating this team based on the end result...which is what really matters...but the devil is in the details when you consider the parts of that end result:

All older and their shelf life is diminishing quickly

Schaub
Foster
Johnson

Couple those parts of our success with our recent personell losses and our cap situation and the future picture looks a bit different then the one you paint.

Allstar
03-18-2013, 10:23 AM
Just a reminder to those who forgot, comp picks cannot be traded.

Thorn
03-18-2013, 10:42 AM
Facts can be just as misrepresented as statistics.

Let me show you:

Since Kubiak and Smith have joined the organization and had control over the personnel (see: HWSNBN), there has been only one losing season and have an overall winning record during that tenure.

Outside of one fluke season - and it's a fluke based on what occurred the seasons before and after - the wins have consistently increased from 6 to 8 to 9 to 10 to 12.

They've had a Top 5 Offense, a Top 5 Defense, the top QB, the top WR and the top RB at some point over the last few years.

Two straight Divisional titles, going 22-10 including winning road records in both season, and winning two playoff games.

To quote "A Few Good Men": These are the facts, and the facts do not lie.

That being said, we ALL know that this does not accurately portray the complete state of this organization. Just like saying Rick Smith is a bad GM because he hasn't orchestrated a SB-winning squad during his tenure.

You are quite right in that "facts" can be twisted anyway you want to in order to fit a viewpoint.

Personally, I don't care what the facts say. My feelings are quite well known. Rick Smith is (mostly) fine and OK with me, it's keeping Kubiak that irratates the hell out of me.

281
03-18-2013, 10:47 AM
So, uhh... When exactly are they gonna tell us what our comp picks are?

beerlover
03-18-2013, 10:52 AM
Finally something to look forward to. Projection only here for those like me, tired of waiting with some factual guidelines for all to read up on - http://edraft.com/nfl/news/projected-2013-nfl-draft-compensatory-selections/

this is one detail that I was unaware of, just to pull one from text * A team can receive up to four (4) compensatory selections in a given season.

281
03-18-2013, 11:02 AM
Finally something to look forward to. Projection only here for those like me, tired of waiting with some factual guidelines for all to read up on - http://edraft.com/nfl/news/projected-2013-nfl-draft-compensatory-selections/

this is one detail that I was unaware of, just to pull one from text

This site is only predicting two? I figured we'd have at least 3...

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 11:17 AM
I predict we get a 3,5,6,6 for comp picks, but I could be wrong. That Jason Allen pick is a real stickler. He got paid like a 5th, and played like a 7th, so I don't know how it will work out.

CretorFrigg
03-18-2013, 11:18 AM
I predict we get a 3,5,6,6 for comp picks, but I could be wrong. That Jason Allen pick is a real stickler. He got paid like a 5th, and played like a 7th, so I don't know how it will work out.

Are the comp picks based on the players we lost last season or this season?

drs23
03-18-2013, 11:23 AM
Nope understaffed at the moment and have had some minor health issues. Better, but it's time to get back to work.

You should run it, your great with people and very even keeled.
LOL

Touché :D

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 11:26 AM
Are the comp picks based on the players we lost last season or this season?

Last season. I made a whole big post about this stuff in the Mock section. LINK (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=96961)

This is what I'm looking at for our qualifying free agent losses and some comparables:

http://i465.photobucket.com/albums/rr14/themishkin/Sports/Texans2013CompensatoryPicks-1_zps7fcd99d0.jpg

CretorFrigg
03-18-2013, 11:31 AM
Last season. I made a whole big post about this stuff in the Mock section. LINK (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=96961)

This is what I'm looking at for our qualifying free agent losses and some comparables:

Oh, okay. That makes sense.

Very informative post. MSR.

powda
03-18-2013, 11:31 AM
Anybody know what time the picks will be announced? I'm assuming 12p est but I can't find that anywhere.

sandman
03-18-2013, 12:05 PM
All great and compelling details for anyone who believes the sky is falling. The other side of that coin is your team watched the Superbowl on TV just like the last place team in the NFL. Another consideration is your evaluating this team based on the end result...which is what really matters...but the devil is in the details when you consider the parts of that end result:

All older and their shelf life is diminishing quickly

Schaub
Foster
Johnson

Couple those parts of our success with our recent personell losses and our cap situation and the future picture looks a bit different then the one you paint.

Well, parity is the NFL's version of the Law of Gravity. It's immutable. During Kubiak's tenure, there have been ELEVEN different teams go to the Super Bowl. There have been SIX different winners with only one team winning twice - NYG - and they miss the playoffs as much as they make Super Bowl runs. San Fran hadn't been to the Super Bowl in 18 years and got lucky to catch lightning in a bottle. Baltimore went 12 years between Super Bowls and then ravaged their team in the off season.

So exactly which team are we pointing to as the model for how the Texans should be doing it? Because I see a bunch of other good teams that don't seem to be capable of sustaining their success and sitting on their couches like Jacksonville and Kansas City.

powda
03-18-2013, 12:21 PM
Well, parity is the NFL's version of the Law of Gravity. It's immutable. During Kubiak's tenure, there have been ELEVEN different teams go to the Super Bowl. There have been SIX different winners with only one team winning twice - NYG - and they miss the playoffs as much as they make Super Bowl runs. San Fran hadn't been to the Super Bowl in 18 years and got lucky to catch lightning in a bottle. Baltimore went 12 years between Super Bowls and then ravaged their team in the off season.

So exactly which team are we pointing to as the model for how the Texans should be doing it? Because I see a bunch of other good teams that don't seem to be capable of sustaining their success and sitting on their couches like Jacksonville and Kansas City.

There are some good models out there like the steelers and pats. I guess the real question here is how long should a team go without a superbowl? What's a reasonable expectation for a fan base? 1 sb every 10 years? Mediocrity is not something i'll settle for as fan...not for a decade anyway. It shouldnt be a crime to ask for more then what we've gotten...

If higher expectations invite criticism try asking any player why they play the game. It's not to settle for 2nd place.

ArlingtonTexan
03-18-2013, 12:29 PM
Anybody know what time the picks will be announced? I'm assuming 12p est but I can't find that anywhere.

I have only seen the "afternnon."

76Texan
03-18-2013, 12:33 PM
Last season. I made a whole big post about this stuff in the Mock section. LINK (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=96961)

This is what I'm looking at for our qualifying free agent losses and some comparables:

http://i465.photobucket.com/albums/rr14/themishkin/Sports/Texans2013CompensatoryPicks-1_zps7fcd99d0.jpg

Dutch, is there any quick way to look at the state of the other 31 teams?

sandman
03-18-2013, 12:57 PM
There are some good models out there like the steelers and pats. I guess the real question here is how long should a team go without a superbowl? What's a reasonable expectation for a fan base? 1 sb every 10 years? Mediocrity is not something i'll settle for as fan...not for a decade anyway. It shouldnt be a crime to ask for more then what we've gotten...

If higher expectations invite criticism try asking any player why they play the game. It's not to settle for 2nd place.

Interesting thought about every 10 years. Ran some numbers going back 10/20/30 years from current year, and there are only three teams teams that have a Super Bowl appearance in each of the last three decades: San Fran, New England, NY Giants. And SF barely made it in, with getting on appearance in each of the last decades.

11 teams have made only one appearance in 30 years. 5 teams made two appearances in the 30 years. 7 teams did not make a single appearance during this time.

Also of note, outside of the '84-'93 decade when four separate teams made at least three appearances (Washington, San Fran, Denver, Buffalo) only two teams made at least three appearances in the '94-'03 or '04-'13 decades: New England and Pittsburgh both in this current decade.

So basically, unless you've been a Patriots or Giants fan for the last 30 years, your team is not meeting expectations.

powda
03-18-2013, 01:04 PM
Interesting thought about every 10 years. Ran some numbers going back 10/20/30 years from current year, and there are only three teams teams that have a Super Bowl appearance in each of the last three decades: San Fran, New England, NY Giants. And SF barely made it in, with getting on appearance in each of the last decades.

11 teams have made only one appearance in 30 years. 5 teams made two appearances in the 30 years. 7 teams did not make a single appearance during this time.

Also of note, outside of the '84-'93 decade when four separate teams made at least three appearances (Washington, San Fran, Denver, Buffalo) only two teams made at least three appearances in the '94-'03 or '04-'13 decades: New England and Pittsburgh both in this current decade.

So basically, unless you've been a Patriots or Giants fan for the last 30 years, your team is not meeting expectations.

Good stuff sand. Maybe i'll stop looking at this from a team pov and approach it from a city standpoint. We've been wandering in the desert for a long time if you include the oilers. Now thats not fair to anyone with the Texans...but goddamned this city is due.

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 01:11 PM
Dutch, is there any quick way to look at the state of the other 31 teams?

I'm not aware of good source for comp pick projections for the entire NFL. I thought about doing it this year, but when I started to look into it, it was just too much work to get through. You can see someone else's projections that Beerlover linked above, but that one really misses the mark on valuations of contracts. No way Josh Morgan is worth a 3rd, probably a 4th, possibly a 5th.

AdamJT used to project all the picks each year, and he was a good source, but he didn't do it the last two years. So I don't really know where to look for it anymore.

76Texan
03-18-2013, 01:13 PM
Good stuff sand. Maybe i'll stop looking at this from a team pov and approach it from a city standpoint. We've been wandering in the desert for a long time if you include the oilers. Now thats not fair to anyone with the Texans...but goddamned this city is due.

I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.

djohn2oo8
03-18-2013, 01:16 PM
I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.
Injuries cannot be used as an excuse. The Texans were down 17-13 at the half at New England, had Schaub just nutted up the Texans could have gone deeper .

powda
03-18-2013, 01:21 PM
I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.

Last year I wanted 2 playoff victories. More then that was icing. I thought that was reasonable as a fan.

Looking at next years schedule, I wont be surprised if we take a step back.

mussop
03-18-2013, 01:28 PM
I think every time we have a team that is pegged to go deep into the play-offs at the beginning of the season, we should be happy.

Like last year; if not for the loss of Cushing and then the run of injuries at ILB late in the season, we would have had a better chance at getting HFA, and most probably a better chance at going deeper into the play-offs.

JJo playing hurt didn't help; Cody playing hurt didn't help; Jamison getting hurt didn't help; Wade Smith playing hurt didn't help; Caldwell getting hurt didn't help; Newton getting hurt and playing hurt didn't help.

With just a little better luck in the injury department, I see an extra win easily.

Yep as long as you make it to the playoffs and get heathy and on a roll at the right time you have a chance. Look at what Baltimore did this year. Mid season there defense was a mash unit and people were calling for Flackos head.

Doppelganger
03-18-2013, 01:50 PM
Last year I wanted 2 playoff victories. More then that was icing. I thought that was reasonable as a fan.

Looking at next years schedule, I wont be surprised if we take a step back.

The problem with looking at schedules is you have no idea how a team will actually play vs the perception on paper. Lots of teams last year did not meet expectations(such as the Steelers). Who is to say the Texans won't win another 12 games or even get to 13? Each week, the Texans play only 1 opponent: not 31.

A handful of plays throughout the year can result in the difference between a 6-10 year and a 10-6 year.

Big Lou
03-18-2013, 03:15 PM
A little sensative about Rick Smith I see.

2 playoff wins in 7 seasons. That's on the entire organization including your boy. They really need to make a bold move this offseason unless they are content with simply filling seats which seems to be the MO these days.

Smith has been building a team. The team was in shambles when he arrived, and although there aren't any rings in Houston yet, he's definately been going the right direction. You don't build a dynasty in a year or two, you just wreck the Cap. Rick isn't perfect, but I think he's batting well over .500 in my opinion.

It may be boring at times, but stability has been good for this franchise. A lot of teams have ADD and run in different direction every year or two, sure some may make a deep playoff run here and there, but the next year they bust and start over.

eriadoc
03-18-2013, 03:38 PM
Smith has been building a team. The team was in shambles when he arrived, and although there aren't any rings in Houston yet, he's definately been going the right direction.

The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

powda
03-18-2013, 03:46 PM
The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

ziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing!

sandman
03-18-2013, 03:47 PM
Injuries cannot be used as an excuse. The Texans were down 17-13 at the half at New England, had Schaub just nutted up the Texans could have gone deeper .

PATS: First possession of 3rd Quarter, Brady goes 4-5 for 56 yards, Pats go 69 total for a rushing TD. Texans D forces only ONE third down.

TEXANS DOWN 10

TEXANS: First possession of 3rd Quarter, 3-and-Out with Schaub 1-2 on two short passes to OD

PATS: Second possession of 3rd Quarter, 3-and-Out with Brady going 1-3 for 5 yards

TEXANS: Second possession of 3rd Quarter, Schaub goes 4-5 for 56 yards, including two 20+ yard passes. Fumbles but recovers it. Throws INT.

TEXANS STILL DOWN 10

PATS: Third possession of 3rd Quarter, Brady goes 3-3 for 26 yards and TD, Ridley rushes three times for 37 yards. Texans D forces NO third downs.

TEXANS DOWN 17

TEXANS: Third possession of 3rd Quarter/Start of 4th, Schaub goes 2-4 for 16 yards, Foster rushes three times for 2 yards. Went for it on 4th down, incomplete.

PATS: First possession of 4th Quarter, Brady one play for TD.

TEXANS DOWN 24

In these series, Schaub was 7-11 for 73 yards and an INT. Not a good quarter, but not an "OMG this was the worst quarter of football ever played!" thing either.

Brady on the other hand, along with the entire NE offense, pretty much made the Texans D toss his salad. They racked up 170 yards and 21 points on 19 total plays from scrimmage. Through FOUR possessions they only had TWO third downs.

Sorry, but one INT by Schaub doesn't come near the lack of nut-up that the defense had in that quarter.

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 03:50 PM
@McClain_on_NFL
I'm thinking Texans should get third round pick for Mario Williams and maybe one more.

Guess we shall see who is right in a short while...

eriadoc
03-18-2013, 03:52 PM
This is tomorrow, right?

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 03:53 PM
This is tomorrow, right?

Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.

The Pencil Neck
03-18-2013, 03:55 PM
The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

That's an interesting topic.

The only one of those teams I'd have considered a shambles was the Niners. They went 8 straight years without a winning season. The others all had some success before a bad season and had bases to work from.

Other teams that I would have considered shambles at that time were the Browns, Lions, and Rams. Not many playoff wins or... just wins PERIOD... since 2006 for those guys.

The Pencil Neck
03-18-2013, 03:56 PM
Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.

Premature thread is premature.

sandman
03-18-2013, 04:15 PM
The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

Saints - Had a winning record from 2000 to 2005, and reached playoffs once. Had one bad year in 2006 going 3-13. Have a winning record and gone to playoffs four times since 2006 with one Super Bowl. NOT SHAMBLES

Titans - Averaged 11 wins per season from 1999 to 2003, made playoffs 4 out of 5 years and went to Super Bowl. Had two poor seasons in 2004 and 2005. They rebounded with four years above .500 and two playoff appearances. NOT SHAMBLES

Jets - Had one losing season between 1997 to 2004 with four playoff appearances. Had one bad year in 2005. Posted winning record and 3 playoff appearances since. NOT SHAMBLES

Packers - 13 straight winning seasons from 1992 to 2004 with 10 playoff appearances and a Super Bowl win. One bad year in 2005. Have made playoffs 5 out of 7 years since. NOT SHAMBLES

Niners - Possibly the only "shambles" team in your list, because they had four straight losing seasons before 2006. Of course, the four losing seasons from 2007-2010 before becoming good the last two years looks an awful lot like Rick Smith's career trajectory.

So four of the five teams you mentioned were historically good and even playoff teams before having one bad season, quickly rebounding to their winning ways.

The Texans, on the other hand, were an expansion team that was 18-46 through four years, coming off of one of the worst seasons in NFL history with HWSNBN holding all of their career passing records, before bringing Kubiak and Smith on board. Big, big difference.

Doppelganger
03-18-2013, 04:18 PM
@McClain_on_NFL
I'm thinking Texans should get third round pick for Mario Williams and maybe one more.

Guess we shall see who is right in a short while...

I am projecting the texans get 2 compensatory picks. I believe one of the keys in this formula is FAs lost-FAs signed. The Texans lost 4(Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dreesen) and signed 2 (James and Donnie Jones). 4-2=2. To figure out the round, you look at level of play, contract to replace, etc. James and Jones were low contract offers, so they would cancel Allen and Dreesen. That leaves two higher level contracts that were lost without a signed alternative.

Based on Mario's contract that should be a 3rd rounder. Briesel is tougher, so I will say somewhere between 5-7 for him.

So I am projecting a 3rd plus 5,6,or 7th for the Texans.

Playoffs
03-18-2013, 04:18 PM
Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.Awww, man .... I've been scanning the wires.

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 04:27 PM
I am projecting the texans get 2 compensatory picks. I believe one of the keys in this formula is FAs lost-FAs signed. The Texans lost 4(Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dreesen) and signed 2 (James and Donnie Jones). 4-2=2. To figure out the round, you look at level of play, contract to replace, etc. James and Jones were low contract offers, so they would cancel Allen and Dreesen. That leaves two higher level contracts that were lost without a signed alternative.

Based on Mario's contract that should be a 3rd rounder. Briesel is tougher, so I will say somewhere between 5-7 for him.

So I am projecting a 3rd plus 5,6,or 7th for the Texans.

Both James and Jones signed vet minimum deals and do not count at all in the compensatory pick equation.

HOU-TEX
03-18-2013, 04:52 PM
This is tomorrow, right?

Yeah, it was a premature thread start from yesterday.

Awww, man .... I've been scanning the wires.

It actually IS today

Aaron Wilson‏@RavensInsider
Compensatory selections to be announced later today by the NFL

Insideop
03-18-2013, 05:09 PM
Anybody know when the NFL will announce the picks? It's after 4 pm here and I just looked on NFL.com and saw nothing.

mussop
03-18-2013, 05:12 PM
It actually IS today

Time?

HOU-TEX
03-18-2013, 05:14 PM
Time?

No times have been given

Doppelganger
03-18-2013, 05:15 PM
Both James and Jones signed vet minimum deals and do not count at all in the compensatory pick equation.

So much for that theory!

So the Texans may not wind up with a third then. If 2-2=0, maybe the only way a Mario comp pick comes through is based on salary? Perhaps it gets downgraded to a 4th/5th and the Briesel maybe a 7th at best.

srrono
03-18-2013, 05:18 PM
http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

Projections by Jimmy Kempski

Team Round Player lost
Texans 3 Mario Williams
Chiefs 3 Brandon Carr
Titans 3 Cortland Finnegan
Lions 4 Eric Wright
Ravens 4 Ben Grubbs
Packers 4 Matt Flynn
Dolphins 4 Kendall Langford
49ers 4 Josh Morgan
Falcons 4 Curtis Lofton
Ravens 5 Jarret Johnson
Titans 5 Jason Jones
Texans 6 Jason Allen
Giants 6 Aaron Ross
Raiders 6 Samson Satele
Raiders 6 Michael Bush
Ravens 6 Cory Redding
Eagles 7 Steve Smith
Bengals 7 Jerome Simpson
Ravens 7 Tom Zbikowski
Steelers 7 William Gay
Seahawks 7 Charlie Whitehurst
Seahawks 7 Atari Bigby
Falcons 7 Eric Weems
Bengals 7 Mike McGlynn
49ers 7 Blake Costanzo
Lions 7 Drew Stanton
49ers 7 Madieu Williams
Falcons 7 James Sanders
Titans 7 William Hayes
Falcons 7 Kelvin Hayden
Jaguars 7 Additional pick
Chiefs 7 Additional pick


Texans
Players lost
Mario Williams (6 yr $96 million), Brisiel (5 yr $20 million), Jason Allen (2 yr $8.2 million), Dreesen (3 yr $8.5 million)
Players Gained
Bradie James (1 yr $890,000), Donnie Jones (1 yr $890,000)

76Texan
03-18-2013, 05:20 PM
http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

Projections by Jimmy Kempski

Don't go by that; he was missing some infos.

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 05:21 PM
So much for that theory!

So the Texans may not wind up with a third then. If 2-2=0, maybe the only way a Mario comp pick comes through is based on salary? Perhaps it gets downgraded to a 4th/5th and the Briesel maybe a 7th at best.

I don't think you're understanding me, I mean Donnie Jones and Bradie James do not factor into the equation for awarding or offsetting picks. So in 2012, the Texans lost 4 qualifying free agents, Mario, Brisiel, Dreessen and Allen. They signed no one that qualified, so we should get 4 picks. The only way I see us not getting 4 comp picks is if the league has more than 32 qualifying signings and a 7th gets lopped off for being beyond the top 32.

76Texan
03-18-2013, 05:22 PM
So much for that theory!

So the Texans may not wind up with a third then. If 2-2=0, maybe the only way a Mario comp pick comes through is based on salary? Perhaps it gets downgraded to a 4th/5th and the Briesel maybe a 7th at best.

You get it backward.

Discounting James and Jones, we lost 4 and gained none.

We might get 4 comp picks.

Mario most likely will net a third rounder.

srrono
03-18-2013, 05:23 PM
Don't go by that; he was missing some infos.

Glad to hear that I was thinking HOU would get at least 3 picks

Dutchrudder
03-18-2013, 05:27 PM
http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

Projections by Jimmy Kempski

If this is true:

Texans
Players lost
Mario Williams (6 yr $96 million), Brisiel (5 yr $20 million), Jason Allen (2 yr $8.2 million), Dreesen (3 yr $8.5 million)
Players Gained
Bradie James (1 yr $890,000), Donnie Jones (1 yr $890,000)


Then they left of Shayne Graham, who signed for 925k+65k signing bonus. 925k is the vet minimum deal for a player of 10+ seasons. 825k is the vet minimum for players with 7-9 years, which James and Jones fall into. Here are the minimum salaries:

2012 NFL vet minimum salaries
Rookie - $390,000
1 year - $465,000
2 year - $540,000
3 year - $615,000
4-6 year - $700,000
7-9 year - $825,000
10+ year - $925,000

That 65k bonus is pretty standard for veteran contracts. I'm not aware of it affecting comp picks, but I guess we will see soon enough.

imatexan
03-18-2013, 05:30 PM
The other top 5 teams that were in shambles when Rick Smith came to Houston were, in order of draft pick, the Saints, Titans, Jets, Packers, and Niners. There are three Super Bowl wins and a couple extra championship games mixed in there. Do with that what you will; just thought I'd offer it up for consideration.

Why are you naming the top 5 pick teams of the 2006 draft?

I thought you would know by now Rick Smith wasn't even hired, makes no sense.

eriadoc
03-18-2013, 07:44 PM
Why are you naming the top 5 pick teams of the 2006 draft?

I thought you would know by now Rick Smith wasn't even hired, makes no sense.

He was hired right after the draft. So he GMed the 2006 team. But that wasn't the reason I brought up that draft. I brought it up because all those teams had debacled (Emmitt-ism) the year before. Since that time, every one of those teams has had almost complete turnover as well, and most of them have had more sucess. The only conclusion I draw from that is it doesn't have to take years and years to rebuild. Yes, the Texans were worse off in '05 than any of those other teams. No, that doesn't matter anymore, because they all have new players, coaches, and probably GMs. Those teams just picked their players, coaches, and GMs better than the Texans did.

powda
03-18-2013, 07:48 PM
Why is this taking so long? Is a fax machine broke?

pec0sb0b
03-18-2013, 07:51 PM
It's almost 5:00 pm, Pacific Standard time. Are the owners all out playing golf, or what? :foottap:

SAMURAITEXAN
03-18-2013, 07:53 PM
It's almost 5:00 pm, Pacific Standard time. Are the owners all out playing golf, or what? :foottap:

Yep, they are at 18th tee and betting double or nothing.

powda
03-18-2013, 08:10 PM
Yep, they are at 18th tee and betting double or nothing.

Minus the saints ofcourse.

infantrycak
03-18-2013, 08:25 PM
He was hired right after the draft. So he GMed the 2006 team.

All the big free agents moves and draft were done before he came in 2006. You can say he was in the car but he didn't pick it.

2006 made a good storyline for you but going with Smith's first draft doesn't play out so well.

Oakland - jack
Detroit - 1 wild card loss
Cleveland - jack
Tampa - 1 wild card loss
Arizona - 2 playoffs including SB loss - and let's face it that was considered the fluke SB run of all time.

Paints a little different picture. Circumstances matter. Some teams aren't as good as their record reflects - see 2004 Texans who were nowhere close to on the verge. Some teams aren't near as bad as their record reflects - see the 2005 hobo Saints.

htowntexans1985
03-18-2013, 08:26 PM
John McClain @ McClain_on_NFL

Texans received compensatory picks in
the 3rd and 6th rounds of next month's
draft. They've had 5 n their history, all
in 6th and 7th rounds

aussie_texan
03-18-2013, 08:26 PM
@McClain_on_NFL: Texans received compensatory picks in the 3rd and 6th rounds of next month's draft. They've had 5 n their history, all in 6th and 7th rounds

281
03-18-2013, 08:30 PM
That's it? Lame. Oh well, it's better than nothing.

Playoffs
03-18-2013, 08:30 PM
@McClain_on_NFL: Texans received compensatory picks in the 3rd and 6th rounds of next month's draft. They've had 5 n their history, all in 6th and 7th rounds

Picks 95 & 201.

Former 95th picks:

2012 Tony Bergstrom OL
2011 Curtis Brown DB
2010 Jimmy Graham TE
2009 Rashad Johnson DB
2008 Mario Manningham WR
2007 Dante Hughes DB
2006 Willie Reid WR
2005 Darryl Blackstock LB
2004 Guss Scott DB
2003 Billy McMullen WR
2002 Eric Crouch QB
.

badboy
03-18-2013, 08:36 PM
2? boo!

TEXANS84
03-18-2013, 08:48 PM
2? boo!

Yeah. I was expecting at the least 4.

Looks like the Bradie James experiment cost us, should have gone with Dobbins from the start.

ArlingtonTexan
03-18-2013, 08:54 PM
If this is true:




Then they left of Shayne Graham, who signed for 925k+65k signing bonus. 925k is the vet minimum deal for a player of 10+ seasons. 825k is the vet minimum for players with 7-9 years, which James and Jones fall into. Here are the minimum salaries:

2012 NFL vet minimum salaries
Rookie - $390,000
1 year - $465,000
2 year - $540,000
3 year - $615,000
4-6 year - $700,000
7-9 year - $825,000
10+ year - $925,000

That 65k bonus is pretty standard for veteran contracts. I'm not aware of it affecting comp picks, but I guess we will see soon enough.

From the outside, I am speculating that the Texans tried to structure the contracts in order to make those guys non-qualifiers. Don't like secret formulas and making teams guess at what it takes to get picks. that said, for these reasons, i don't like my team not sigming useful football players at what appears to be a hope at getting bottom level, late round picks that it can't trade a year later.

SAMURAITEXAN
03-18-2013, 08:54 PM
Minus the saints ofcourse.

Nice ha ha.

beerlover
03-18-2013, 08:56 PM
I feel like Texans received another raw deal. Guess wait for next years 4th & 5th. Better not sign Ed Reed either probably lose them as we'll?

SAMURAITEXAN
03-18-2013, 08:57 PM
Just 2 huh. I know we lost some FA but we signed some as well. But just 2 huh, less than I expected.

Uncle Rico
03-18-2013, 09:08 PM
LOL sooo the team shouldnt sign FA's because they will lose out on compensatory draft picks?? Is that what this fanbase has be relegated to?

:vincepalm:

eriadoc
03-18-2013, 09:41 PM
All the big free agents moves and draft were done before he came in 2006. You can say he was in the car but he didn't pick it.

2006 made a good storyline for you but going with Smith's first draft doesn't play out so well.

Oakland - jack
Detroit - 1 wild card loss
Cleveland - jack
Tampa - 1 wild card loss
Arizona - 2 playoffs including SB loss - and let's face it that was considered the fluke SB run of all time.

Paints a little different picture. Circumstances matter. Some teams aren't as good as their record reflects - see 2004 Texans who were nowhere close to on the verge. Some teams aren't near as bad as their record reflects - see the 2005 hobo Saints.

Missing the point entirely. The Texans' low point was the 2005 season, resulting in the 2006 draft. I simply compared the Texans' low point to that of the other teams right there with them at the same time. Rick Smith was in charge for 6.728 of those 7 seasons. That doesn't mean I'm pinning it on Rick Smith; it's just an observation. I didn't bring up the comparison because of Rick Smith directly. I pin more of the Texans woes on Kubiak than anyone else, as anyone who has followed my post history would know.

Either way, the Texans hit their low point with other teams that should serve as examples that it doesn't have to take years and years to rebuild. It can take years and years, if you're the Browns or Raiders, but it doesn't have to.

the wonger need food
03-18-2013, 09:45 PM
Seems like we got jobbed again. Should have been at least 2 sixes along with the 3rd.

WolverineFan
03-18-2013, 09:54 PM
Read the CBS Sports article about the comp picks....

Listed us losing Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dressen while gaining Bradie James and Donnie Jones. Apparently that's why we only got 2.

ArlingtonTexan
03-18-2013, 09:59 PM
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/18/ravens-falcons-get-four-compensatory-picks/

76Texan
03-18-2013, 10:00 PM
Read the CBS Sports article about the comp picks....

Listed us losing Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dressen while gaining Bradie James and Donnie Jones. Apparently that's why we only got 2.

What a let down. They counted both James and Jones.
I think playing timing also plays a part in the formula.
Both of these guys were basically our starters.

beerlover
03-18-2013, 10:05 PM
LOL sooo the team shouldnt sign FA's because they will lose out on compensatory draft picks?? Is that what this fanbase has be relegated to?

:vincepalm:

:hide:

CloakNNNdagger
03-18-2013, 10:52 PM
Some added leeway to either move down in a talent-filled round 2, 3 and 4 to get more picks or package some picks to move up.

Doppelganger
03-18-2013, 10:55 PM
I am projecting the texans get 2 compensatory picks. I believe one of the keys in this formula is FAs lost-FAs signed. The Texans lost 4(Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dreesen) and signed 2 (James and Donnie Jones). 4-2=2. To figure out the round, you look at level of play, contract to replace, etc. James and Jones were low contract offers, so they would cancel Allen and Dreesen. That leaves two higher level contracts that were lost without a signed alternative.

Based on Mario's contract that should be a 3rd rounder. Briesel is tougher, so I will say somewhere between 5-7 for him.

So I am projecting a 3rd plus 5,6,or 7th for the Texans.

Sometimes I hate being right...

IDEXAN
03-18-2013, 11:04 PM
Getting an xtra 3 (even if it's virtually in the beginning of the 4th round), is a valuable pick. For example I think OD was the first pick of the fourth round when we drafted him in 2006 ? But now 6th & 7th round picks are real long shots (OK, please nobody mention Tom Brady).

mussop
03-18-2013, 11:16 PM
Has this been confirmed? And not by McLaim! If so this SUCKS!!!!!

badboy
03-18-2013, 11:23 PM
Getting an xtra 3 (even if it's virtually in the beginning of the 4th round), is a valuable pick. For example I think OD was the first pick of the fourth round when we drafted him in 2006 ? But now 6th & 7th round picks are real long shots (OK, please nobody mention Tom Brady).more important to me is the comp 3rd allows us to trade our 3rd to move up. Three seconds, comp 3rd and a 4th takes care of our needs. Round two: OLB/NT/WR, Comp: S, round four: ILB

tru80texan
03-18-2013, 11:24 PM
What a let down. They counted both James and Jones.
I think playing timing also plays a part in the formula.
Both of these guys were basically our starters.

I read somewhere they counted Shayne Graham against us as well. 2 special teamers & a mediocre LB earned offsetth losses & earned 2 picks. Yeah...the Texans took the root on that one.:vincepalm:

tru80texan
03-18-2013, 11:26 PM
Has this been confirmed? And not by McLaim! If so this SUCKS!!!!!

Here's where I found my info.
http://www.stateofthetexans.com/?p=10918

It's not the great insider McLame, but hopefully it will suffice.

Lucky
03-18-2013, 11:31 PM
I have seen years where contracts like James and Jones not counted as qualified free agents. I guess the small bonuses they received kept them from being counted as vet minimum signings. Probably best to sign guys like this after June 1st, when they are no longer counted as free agency period signings.

Getting an xtra 3 (even if it's virtually in the beginning of the 4th round), is a valuable pick. For example I think OD was the first pick of the fourth round when we drafted him in 2006 ? But now 6th & 7th round picks are real long shots (OK, please nobody mention Tom Brady).
That's a good point. Your chances of hitting on a UDFA are about as good as a very late 6th rounder. And that's what those picks would have been. The Texans will be fortunate to find 9 rookies in the draft that can make their roster.

Lucky
03-18-2013, 11:35 PM
I read somewhere they counted Shayne Graham against us as well.
Shayne Graham couldn't have counted, because he wasn't on a NFL roster at the end of the 2011 season. Graham was by the Ravens prior to the playoffs and became a street free agent.

Corrosion
03-18-2013, 11:42 PM
Read the CBS Sports article about the comp picks....

Listed us losing Mario, Brisiel, Allen, and Dressen while gaining Bradie James and Donnie Jones. Apparently that's why we only got 2.

James and Jones both played for the vet min which .... according to what Ive read should not count against comp picks.

tru80texan
03-18-2013, 11:44 PM
Shayne Graham couldn't have counted, because he wasn't on a NFL roster at the end of the 2011 season. Graham was by the Ravens prior to the playoffs and became a street free agent.

You could be right. Honestly, I don't know, but he was listed in the link that I provided & read as a FA signed vs our FA's lost. Regardless, the Texans got screwed. Counting one more player, Graham, doesn't exactly help the sting to me but I guess it makes it look a bit better to some. A Punter & a mediocre LB earning 2 picks means the Texans really took a BIG one.

76Texan
03-18-2013, 11:44 PM
Sometimes I hate being right...

Their rules are ambiguous at best.
Dutch and some others thought that neither Jones nor James qualified.
I wasn't sure because I didn't see anything about the signing bonus.

On the other hand, the rules also mentioned playing time, and Allen played squat for the Bengals.

So yeah, it's rather confusing because the NFL never revealed their exact formula.

badboy
03-18-2013, 11:49 PM
no Reed, not enough picks...probably will not hit in the draft either.

76Texan
03-18-2013, 11:53 PM
A while ago, I ran into an article that mentioned some GMs that were quoted as saying "they give up on predicting comp pick".

I didn't make note of the link but it's out there on the web.

keyser
03-19-2013, 12:57 AM
Has this been confirmed? And not by McLaim! If so this SUCKS!!!!!

Here's another source confirming:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/21906837/nfl-announces-compensatory-picks-for-2013-nfl-draft

WolverineFan
03-19-2013, 02:06 AM
James and Jones both played for the vet min which .... according to what Ive read should not count against comp picks.

They were also starters which may play a role in the committee's decision.

thunderkyss
03-19-2013, 08:53 AM
I agree with much of what you've said. But the offense has 6 of the 8 largest contracts the Texans have on the books. If that's not "real ammo" then they shouldn't have handed out those contracts.


I think that proves his point even more. These contracts are going to guys who were way below the Radar, Schaub is the only one you can say there was interest for. It'd be a stretch to say there was interest in Arian as 32 teams passed on him 7 times.

We've made some pretty good lemonade by finding the right lemons.

Just imagine if we had been spending first round picks on our offense & not our defense. Bringing Wade in, I was hoping we'd be able to consider offensive players more fairly on the first day, but..... we'll see.

If we can make this offseason as offensive heavy as the past two have been defensively focused, I think we would be in for a really great season.

But seeing as how they may have screwed the Quin/Reed thing up, they'll probably find some way to over compensate.

panamamyers
03-19-2013, 09:44 AM
They were also starters which may play a role in the committee's decision.

My understanding is that the vet minimum guys don't count at all though. They could be Pro Bowlers, but they are not even supposed to be on the table for the equation.
They either were not considered vet minimum contracts or that rule has changed.

HOU-TEX
03-19-2013, 09:50 AM
I'm just happy we got the 3rd. Much better than a bunch of 6's and 7's.

I reckon if Kubiak's really going to be looking at QB, this will be the spot he'll get to get him

Dutchrudder
03-19-2013, 10:19 AM
Well damn, guess I owe someone a beer.

I'm still not sure that James and Jones actually counted against the comp picks we could have received. Either Brisiel or Jason Allen were the player that gave us the 6th, but if the league's formula saw one of them as a 7th and saw Dreessen as a 7th, then we might have simply missed out due to more than 32 picks being awarded. Most years you see only 25-30 picks awarded, and the rest are given to the teams at the top of the draft in order for a total of 32 picks added to the draft. The year Dunta left, the Texans got the last pick in the draft and chose Cheta O. This year, there were no supplemental comp picks awarded, so it's likely that at least a few teams were screwed out of a 7th or two. The Texans may have been one of those teams, but we won't be able to confirm it.

In any case, this whole secret formula bull**** needs to end. It's completely ridiculous that people aren't allowed to know the salary ranges for picks, who contributed to each pick, what stats contribute to higher/lower picks, etc etc.

badboy
03-19-2013, 11:33 AM
Well damn, guess I owe someone a beer.

I'm still not sure that James and Jones actually counted against the comp picks we could have received. Either Brisiel or Jason Allen were the player that gave us the 6th, but if the league's formula saw one of them as a 7th and saw Dreessen as a 7th, then we might have simply missed out due to more than 32 picks being awarded. Most years you see only 25-30 picks awarded, and the rest are given to the teams at the top of the draft in order for a total of 32 picks added to the draft. The year Dunta left, the Texans got the last pick in the draft and chose Cheta O. This year, there were no supplemental comp picks awarded, so it's likely that at least a few teams were screwed out of a 7th or two. The Texans may have been one of those teams, but we won't be able to confirm it.

In any case, this whole secret formula bull**** needs to end. It's completely ridiculous that people aren't allowed to know the salary ranges for picks, who contributed to each pick, what stats contribute to higher/lower picks, etc etc.

"I run this league. If I wanted your opinion or the coaches, GMs or owners..."

signed Roger Goodell

76Texan
03-19-2013, 11:55 AM
Dutch and all, anybody wants to take a look at the Ravens?

According to different articles, the Ravens got 4 comp picks.
At least 2 of them show that they lost 6.
They did not show enough gain to offset the losses; ie. they didn't show enough qualifying signings.

Well, I performed a quick check and found that they signed 5 at the same level as Bradie James or higher:

Bobbie Williams (2 years), Ryan McBean, Corey Graham, Sean Considine, and Billy Bajema.

So what's going on here?

ObsiWan
03-19-2013, 11:59 AM
Injuries cannot be used as an excuse. The Texans were down 17-13 at the half at New England, had Schaub just nutted up the Texans could have gone deeper .

Or if Casey had caught that gimmie TD pass in the 1st Qtr it would have been 17-17...

Or if Wade's vaunted D had made adjustments and not allowed Brady & Co to run up a forty-burger on them... ...AGAIN.

...or maybe it's all of the above...

Dutchrudder
03-19-2013, 12:10 PM
Dutch and all, anybody wants to take a look at the Ravens?

According to different articles, the Ravens got 4 comp picks.
At least 2 of them show that they lost 6.
They did not show enough gain to offset the losses; ie. they didn't show enough qualifying signings.

Well, I performed a quick check and found that they signed 5 at the same level as Bradie James or higher:

Bobbie Williams (2 years), Ryan McBean, Corey Graham, Sean Considine, and Billy Bajema.

So what's going on here?

First thing I do when looking at this stuff is check the signing date, which can be found on ESPN's transactions by team section: Ravens (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/transactions/_/name/bal/year/2012/baltimore-ravens)

Williams was after June 1st, so he doesn't count at all:
June 8, 2012 Agree to terms with G Bobbie Williams on a two-year contract.

August 2, 2012 Signed TE Billy Bajema. Waived QB John Brantley.

Next thing to do is figure out the status of the players in question, were they cut or released by their previous team? If so, they don't count.

Ryan McBean released by Broncos: http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20406808

I can't figure out if Sean Considine finished the season on the Cardinals in 2011, but he was cut by the Panthers in the middle of that season. I have no idea if he counts.

Corey Graham expired rookie deal with Bears, signed as a UFA with Ravens. So we would need to see his contract numbers to see if he qualified.

Anyways, there are a lot of variables about it, just have to have some help with the transactions and contract numbers to make a good estimate.

b0ng
03-19-2013, 12:12 PM
Well damn, guess I owe someone a beer.

I'm still not sure that James and Jones actually counted against the comp picks we could have received. Either Brisiel or Jason Allen were the player that gave us the 6th, but if the league's formula saw one of them as a 7th and saw Dreessen as a 7th, then we might have simply missed out due to more than 32 picks being awarded. Most years you see only 25-30 picks awarded, and the rest are given to the teams at the top of the draft in order for a total of 32 picks added to the draft. The year Dunta left, the Texans got the last pick in the draft and chose Cheta O. This year, there were no supplemental comp picks awarded, so it's likely that at least a few teams were screwed out of a 7th or two. The Texans may have been one of those teams, but we won't be able to confirm it.

In any case, this whole secret formula bull**** needs to end. It's completely ridiculous that people aren't allowed to know the salary ranges for picks, who contributed to each pick, what stats contribute to higher/lower picks, etc etc.

Do NFL front offices know the "secret formula"? If so, then it's pretty stupid not to let the public know how this process works. If not, then it could be to keep GM's from gaming the system to get extra comp picks with the way they sign FA's.

Doppelganger
03-19-2013, 12:15 PM
Well damn, guess I owe someone a beer.

I'm still not sure that James and Jones actually counted against the comp picks we could have received. Either Brisiel or Jason Allen were the player that gave us the 6th, but if the league's formula saw one of them as a 7th and saw Dreessen as a 7th, then we might have simply missed out due to more than 32 picks being awarded. Most years you see only 25-30 picks awarded, and the rest are given to the teams at the top of the draft in order for a total of 32 picks added to the draft. The year Dunta left, the Texans got the last pick in the draft and chose Cheta O. This year, there were no supplemental comp picks awarded, so it's likely that at least a few teams were screwed out of a 7th or two. The Texans may have been one of those teams, but we won't be able to confirm it.

In any case, this whole secret formula bull**** needs to end. It's completely ridiculous that people aren't allowed to know the salary ranges for picks, who contributed to each pick, what stats contribute to higher/lower picks, etc etc.

Agreed. Transparency is needed. The MLB one is much easier to understand: you sign a FA player in a certain level, you give up your first round pick. Simple. The NFL once again standing for the No Fair League.

76Texan
03-19-2013, 12:57 PM
First thing I do when looking at this stuff is check the signing date, which can be found on ESPN's transactions by team section: Ravens (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/transactions/_/name/bal/year/2012/baltimore-ravens)

Williams was after June 1st, so he doesn't count at all:




Next thing to do is figure out the status of the players in question, were they cut or released by their previous team? If so, they don't count.

Ryan McBean released by Broncos: http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20406808

I can't figure out if Sean Considine finished the season on the Cardinals in 2011, but he was cut by the Panthers in the middle of that season. I have no idea if he counts.

Corey Graham expired rookie deal with Bears, signed as a UFA with Ravens. So we would need to see his contract numbers to see if he qualified.

Anyways, there are a lot of variables about it, just have to have some help with the transactions and contract numbers to make a good estimate.
I forgot about the signing date and players being cut.

So I guess the simple formula works here.

Lost 6, gained 2 (counting Considine) = net loss 4

Dutchrudder
03-19-2013, 01:37 PM
Do NFL front offices know the "secret formula"? If so, then it's pretty stupid not to let the public know how this process works. If not, then it could be to keep GM's from gaming the system to get extra comp picks with the way they sign FA's.

I don't think the GMs actually know the formula for the reason you stated. It kind of makes sense, but the fact is if a team wants to sign a player, I don't think they will squabble over a few hundred grand to prevent another team from getting a slightly better compensatory pick. Most of the picks awarded are going to be 6th and 7th round, which don't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.

76Texan
03-19-2013, 01:44 PM
I don't think the GMs actually know the formula for the reason you stated. It kind of makes sense, but the fact is if a team wants to sign a player, I don't think they will squabble over a few hundred grand to prevent another team from getting a slightly better compensatory pick. Most of the picks awarded are going to be 6th and 7th round, which don't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.

The thing is somehow the Ravens managed to be one of the teams that has been receiving a ton of comp picks since forever.
And they seem to have a pretty good team overall for quite a long time.

Is there a good formula for a GM to consider?

The Pats are also notorious for having a lot of picks and you can't argue with their success.

beerlover
03-19-2013, 01:50 PM
secret formula is identify, select/sign your franchise QB. It's just that Kubiak choose Matt Schaub to be HIS guy. :hankpalm:

Dutchrudder
03-19-2013, 01:52 PM
I forgot about the signing date and players being cut.

So I guess the simple formula works here.

Lost 6, gained 2 (counting Considine) = net loss 4

Well, I count 1 qualifying free agent signing (can't confirm Considine):

CB Corey Graham from the Bears for 2 years AAV APY: $1,975,000

By my estimation, he would be worth a 7th, so their net loss would be 5 at best, 4 at worst if Considine qualified. Since the max compensatory picks per team is 4, it's possible that the Ravens qualified for 5, but hit the limit at 4.

Dutchrudder
03-19-2013, 01:55 PM
The thing is somehow the Ravens managed to be one of the teams that has been receiving a ton of comp picks since forever.
And they seem to have a pretty good team overall for quite a long time.

Is there a good formula for a GM to consider?

The Pats are also notorious for having a lot of picks and you can't argue with their success.

Sign lots of guys to short contracts and you will eventually get comp picks. In particular, sign veterans who are likely to be picked up the following year. Even if you sign them for 1 year vet minimum, they can still become a comp pick the next year if someone signs them for more.

Also, having lots of picks that play out their contracts and end up moving on will help. So those comp picks they get might turn into guys who leave the team after 3-4 years and turn into more comp picks, thus keeping the cycle going. That's why the Patriots get so many, they tend to have lots of picks, and as we are seeing this offseason with the Texans, you can't keep everybody.

76Texan
03-19-2013, 01:56 PM
Well, I count 1 qualifying free agent signing (can't confirm Considine):

CB Corey Graham from the Bears for 2 years AAV APY: $1,975,000

By my estimation, he would be worth a 7th, so their net loss would be 5 at best, 4 at worst if Considine qualified. Since the max compensatory picks per team is 4, it's possible that the Ravens qualified for 5, but hit the limit at 4.

Considine doesn't need to be figured in, we both see that.

Like you, I'm interested to see if we can "learn" something, but we can't, in this instance.

It would have been an excercise if the Ravens only lost 5 instead of 6; then we would know for sure if Considine counts or not (and get a lesson out of the scenario.)

badboy
03-19-2013, 02:01 PM
Sign lots of guys to short contracts and you will eventually get comp picks. In particular, sign veterans who are likely to be picked up the following year. Even if you sign them for 1 year vet minimum, they can still become a comp pick the next year if someone signs them for more.

Also, having lots of picks that play out their contracts and end up moving on will help. So those comp picks they get might turn into guys who leave the team after 3-4 years and turn into more comp picks, thus keeping the cycle going. That's why the Patriots get so many, they tend to have lots of picks, and as we are seeing this offseason with the Texans, you can't keep everybody.James would have been a good example of this if he had produced more as a starter & then was signed in FA.

76Texan
03-19-2013, 02:18 PM
James would have been a good example of this if he had produced more as a starter & then was signed in FA.

We can always hope somebody picks him up for slightly above the veteran minimum. The FA signing period isn't over yet.
Who knows, LOL!