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View Full Version : Three-and-out Percentage - Texans 26th in NFL


CloakNNNdagger
02-07-2013, 03:41 PM
Only better than the Jets, Rams, Raider, Jags, Chargers, Cardinals.

3 and Out Percentages 2012 (http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/three-and-out-percentage/2012/)


Three-and-out Percentage is a measure of the rate at which a teams drives end as three-and-outs, which is calculated by taking a teams total three-and-outs and dividing it by the total drives of the team.

A drive is a series of plays by a team that only ends when a team turns over the ball, scores or the game ends while a three-and-out is a drive that end after a team is unable to gain a first down in the first three plays of a drive.

The lower the Third-and-out Percentage as it suggests that a team has a low rate of turning over the ball quickly to the opposition.


Lots of ways to try to interpret it..........none of them good.
It's also interesting to see how we fared in 2011 and 2010.

bOODRO87
02-07-2013, 03:45 PM
:clap:

- McNair.

eriadoc
02-07-2013, 03:52 PM
In 2005, the Texans were 27th in the league, with 26.01%. 2012 they were 26th with 26.24%. In 2010, they were 2nd with 17.xx%. Not sure what to make of that. It has crossed my mind that this offense may be worse now than it was in 2010, and it's not because of the RB or WR position.

CretorFrigg
02-07-2013, 03:54 PM
I'm not surprised at this sad statistic. There were way too many 3 and out drives by the Texans last season. I don't know if it's playcalling or simply just a lack of execution, although I'm leaning towards the latter because it appears the plays are there. Players are getting open, but either Schaub can't make the decision in time, rushes the decision, or completely breaks down because there's a little bit of pressure. Something needs to be done. We can't just stick with the status quo and hope it works next time.

Playoffs
02-07-2013, 04:05 PM
Scoring offense has been pretty steady...

2012 ..8th (26)
2011 10th (23.8)
2010 ..9th (24.4)

We led the league in time of possession in 2012 & 2011.

.

Dutchrudder
02-07-2013, 04:26 PM
The Ravens were 24th in the 2012 regular season. The offense was clearly not doing it's job, so the OC got sacked week 15, Jim Caldwell took over and the rest is history...

:thinking:

(btw, this is Offensive 3 and outs. Texans defense was very good at forcing 3 and outs)

Jules Winnfield
02-07-2013, 04:33 PM
6 pro bowlers on offense but its the defense fault....:kitten:

Double Barrel
02-07-2013, 04:48 PM
There are a few stats that truly reveal the soul of an offense. Turnovers, red zone efficiency, and 3rd down conversion percentages don't lie.

thunderkyss
02-07-2013, 04:53 PM
Subscribed......

I'll give you my spin later. For now though, carry on.

There are a few stats that truly reveal the soul of an offense. Turnovers, red zone efficiency, and 3rd down conversion percentages (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct/seasontype/2) don't lie.

That's true.

silvrhand
02-07-2013, 07:06 PM
How many of them are runs vs. passes?

ThaShark316
02-07-2013, 07:22 PM
6 pro bowlers on offense but its the defense fault....:kitten:

It's everyone's fault.

Same ol sports fans in this era. It's not just one group or one player or one...ANYTHING; especially in this, the ultimate team sport. 2 most important games vs. the same team; the O was ass and so was the defense. Yeah, I'll blame the O, I'll blame the D, and I'll blame the wack ass special teams.

Different strokes for different folks, but this **** here is ridiculous.

thunderkyss
02-07-2013, 08:33 PM
It's everyone's fault.

Same ol sports fans in this era. It's not just one group or one player or one...ANYTHING; especially in this, the ultimate team sport. 2 most important games vs. the same team; the O was ass and so was the defense. Yeah, I'll blame the O, I'll blame the D, and I'll blame the wack ass special teams.


Hey.... it didn't get out of hand till halfway through the third qtr the second time, that's progress. If we play the Patriots three more times, we'll beat them.

CloakNNNdagger
02-07-2013, 08:43 PM
Hey.... it didn't get out of hand till halfway through the third qtr the second time, that's progress. If we play the Patriots three more times, we'll beat them.

Since we are known for seldom playing well for more than 2 quarters, it is just as likely that those games get out of hand during the 1st quarter..........:kitten:

Uncle Rico
02-07-2013, 08:55 PM
on third and long you double Dre and the rest works itself out for the defense. no passing threats. no FB decoy passes. no creativity. butterfingers and brickhands running around trying to convert.

Wolf6151
02-07-2013, 09:40 PM
6 pro bowlers on offense but its the defense fault....:kitten:

:bravo: This is Kubiaks fault.

Goatcheese
02-07-2013, 10:27 PM
It doesn't seem to be a consistent stat, or one that's particularly relevant to scoring. The Texans have been at the top (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) and bottom (2006, 2011, 2012) of the list during the Kubiak era and there doesn't seem to be any correlation between this stat and actual success.

It's an interesting "hmm" stat, but not much else.

thunderkyss
02-07-2013, 10:56 PM
It doesn't seem to be a consistent stat, or one that's particularly relevant to scoring. The Texans have been at the top (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) and bottom (2006, 2011, 2012) of the list during the Kubiak era and there doesn't seem to be any correlation between this stat and actual success.

It's an interesting "hmm" stat, but not much else.

It's definitely interesting.

But like you said, it doesn't mean what we want it to mean. We've scored a lot of points, we ranked high in T.O.P. But we ranked 26th in 3 & out.

But just because a team did not go 3 & out doesn't mean they scored. They may not have even crossed the 50 yard line.

dream_team
02-07-2013, 11:11 PM
It doesn't seem to be a consistent stat, or one that's particularly relevant to scoring. The Texans have been at the top (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) and bottom (2006, 2011, 2012) of the list during the Kubiak era and there doesn't seem to be any correlation between this stat and actual success.

It's an interesting "hmm" stat, but not much else.

I agree! T.O.P. and actual points scored mean more to me.

It would be nice to not have a 3&out so much, but our offense seems to still be effective.

Brisco_County
02-08-2013, 12:50 AM
To me it says that big, downfield plays materialize on 1st and 2nd when the opponent is left guessing. But on 3rd and long, when they know it's a pass, we cannot impose the pass. That explains red zone scoring too.

htowntexans1985
02-08-2013, 07:59 AM
Them qb draws and 5 yard slant routes on 3rd & 8 sure are effective Kubiak!! :fingergun:

HOU-TEX
02-08-2013, 09:03 AM
I'm too fat and lazy to go do the research, but I wonder what this stat would be for the 1st half of the season vs the 2nd. It seemed like we were very good in the 1st half of the season, then went out the poop shoot in the 2nd.

CretorFrigg
02-08-2013, 12:21 PM
I'm too fat and lazy to go do the research, but I wonder what this stat would be for the 1st half of the season vs the 2nd. It seemed like we were very good in the 1st half of the season, then went out the poop shoot in the 2nd.

That's what it seemed like to me as well. I don't know what to attribute it to. Was it because teams started to figure out what we were doing? Was our O-line playing worse? As I mentioned earlier, from what I've seen, it appeared the plays were there. Matt Schaub just progressively got worse throughout the season. He began to feel pressure when there wasn't any. He rushed through his throws, failed to go through his progressions. And when there was pressure, it would either result in an incomplete pass or a sack.

Also, our running game the second half of the season was a bit off. There were way too many 0 - 1 yard rushes. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's just what I've noticed without looking at any stats.

76Texan
02-08-2013, 01:26 PM
Not a stat that says much; and it's skewed to begin with.
It would have been nice to be better at it though... Wait.

We don't have a lot of 3 and outs as compared to the opponents in 3 of the 4 losses in the regular season.

See post #41

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=97492&highlight=conversion&page=3

Dread-Head
02-08-2013, 02:04 PM
:headhurts: (GASP) You mean the greatest QB in the history of the game of football aka JOE FLACCO is only two notches LOWER than the Houston, Texans? You mean to say that despite Flacco's superbowl ring there are 22 QB's in the NFL who have better 3rd down conversion rates than him?! HERESEY! HERESEY I SAY!

:sarcasm:

Hervoyel
02-08-2013, 02:13 PM
Scoring offense has been pretty steady...

2012 ..8th (26)
2011 10th (23.8)
2010 ..9th (24.4)

We led the league in time of possession in 2012 & 2011.

.


Just imagine what it would have been like if we weren't going 3 and out so often.

thunderkyss
02-08-2013, 03:04 PM
:headhurts: (GASP) You mean the greatest QB in the history of the game of football aka JOE FLACCO is only two notches LOWER than the Houston, Texans? You mean to say that despite Flacco's superbowl ring there are 22 QB's in the NFL who have better 3rd down conversion rates than him?! HERESEY! HERESEY I SAY!

:sarcasm:

To be fair, this 3 & out percentage is not the same as 3rd down conversions. Slightly different. This is the ratio of 3 & outs to total possessions. Right now, I don't think anyone has an idea of how this correlates to anything right now.

The Texans are 26th in this particular stat, the Ravens, 24th.

3rd down conversions is a slightly different story (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct/seasontype/2) as the Texans ranked 17th & the Ravens ranked 20th (yes, that's 3 spots lower).

There are a few stats that truly reveal the soul of an offense. Turnovers, red zone efficiency, and 3rd down conversion percentages don't lie.

You're right, they don't lie, but what do they tell us?

thunderkyss
02-08-2013, 03:11 PM
Here's the 2012 Red Zone (http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct) stats.

We were ranked 14

San Francisco, Seattle, Cincinnati, Minnesota, & Indy ranked lower.

dream_team
02-09-2013, 01:26 AM
Here's the 2012 Red Zone (http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct) stats.

We were ranked 14

San Francisco, Seattle, Cincinnati, Minnesota, & Indy ranked lower.

I mentioned this in another thread... we're not as bad in red zone as people made it out to be. We should be better considering the offensive talent we have, but still, not horrible.

thunderkyss
02-09-2013, 01:47 AM
I mentioned this in another thread... we're not as bad in red zone as people made it out to be. We should be better considering the offensive talent we have, but still, not horrible.

I think it's relative. Most people don't see how bad other teams are, they just know we're bad. I never would have guessed we scored as many points as we had, seeing how we played in the red zone. I guess we just get to the red zone more often than other teams, but that doesn't jive with our 3 & out percentage.

:thinking:

silvrhand
02-09-2013, 09:07 AM
To be fair, this 3 & out percentage is not the same as 3rd down conversions. Slightly different. This is the ratio of 3 & outs to total possessions. Right now, I don't think anyone has an idea of how this correlates to anything right now.

The Texans are 26th in this particular stat, the Ravens, 24th.

3rd down conversions is a slightly different story (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct/seasontype/2) as the Texans ranked 17th & the Ravens ranked 20th (yes, that's 3 spots lower).



You're right, they don't lie, but what do they tell us?

That's over the season though, break it down by 4 and 8 game streteches and I would bet we were darn near last in the league the last half of the year.

thunderkyss
02-09-2013, 09:21 AM
That's over the season though, break it down by 4 and 8 game streteches and I would bet we were darn near last in the league the last half of the year.

And a team like Baltimore who lost 4 of their last 5 would still be lower.

It's no secret that we ran out of gas & lacked focus in some of the games down the stretch. Part of the reason may have been "knowing" that we've clenched a play-off spot & being realistic about injuries. Not just the Cushing injuries, but injuries to guys who were "playing through it" like Cody, like Jjo, like Brooks, like Dobbins & Sharpton, Newton, Wade Smith & maybe even Matt Schaub.

Not that it makes their performance excusable, just being realistic, it happens.

silvrhand
02-09-2013, 09:43 AM
And a team like Baltimore who lost 4 of their last 5 would still be lower.

It's no secret that we ran out of gas & lacked focus in some of the games down the stretch. Part of the reason may have been "knowing" that we've clenched a play-off spot & being realistic about injuries. Not just the Cushing injuries, but injuries to guys who were "playing through it" like Cody, like Jjo, like Brooks, like Dobbins & Sharpton, Newton, Wade Smith & maybe even Matt Schaub.

Not that it makes their performance excusable, just being realistic, it happens.

choo choo excuse train all aboard.. destination kool aid land..

:mariopalm:

Honoring Earl 34
02-09-2013, 10:11 AM
Yesterday Charlie and LZ were talking about the Texans being on Hard Knocks . LZ was talking about showing Schaub and Kubiak playing poker . They both kept folding saying " I have nothing " . Matt you have a 1v1 match up don't fold . Gary you win the ante if you don't fold ... " I ain't got nothing " .

The Texans played the same way in 2012 as they did in 2011 . The problem was they didn't have Winston , Briesel , and Dressen . Then they rotate Brooks , Jones , Newton , and Harris .

This is also a byproduct of 3rd and 8 and dumping the ball off a 3 yard gain .

thunderkyss
02-09-2013, 11:06 AM
choo choo excuse train all aboard.. destination kool aid land..

:mariopalm:

Not making excuses. You dump on the Texans for falling down the stretch, like it's something unique to the team. I replied saying the Ravens also lost 4 of their last 5, so we were not the only ones who struggled in the second half. That's football, that happens.

thunderkyss
02-09-2013, 11:13 AM
Yesterday Charlie and LZ were talking about the Texans being on Hard Knocks . LZ was talking about showing Schaub and Kubiak playing poker . They both kept folding saying " I have nothing " . Matt you have a 1v1 match up don't fold . Gary you win the ante if you don't fold ... " I ain't got nothing " .

The Texans played the same way in 2012 as they did in 2011 . The problem was they didn't have Winston , Briesel , and Dressen . Then they rotate Brooks , Jones , Newton , and Harris .

This is also a byproduct of 3rd and 8 and dumping the ball off a 3 yard gain .

Right after the New England loss in the play offs, I posted saying Kubiak screwed the pooch by not trying to get Matt into a rhytm. Not using 3+ WR sets predominately to start the game & get Matt comfy.

I went back & watched that game again a couple of weeks later & that's exactly what he did. It wasn't no huddle, but it was not as slow as a normal huddle. It was 3+ receivers for the majority of our snaps.

& no one wants to hear it, but Matt looked good. Not incredible, but good. There were those two goofy plays where he pulled the ball down & tried to make something happen, but other than that.....

I'd like to see the all 22. The only reason I can think Matt didn't throw deep often, was because there was no one deep often & we never got into 5 step drop territory.... & by that, I mean we were never successfull enough with our 3 step drops that Matt could take deep drops & plays downfield could open up. Seemed like every time we tried, he was forced to throw it early.

I think if anyone would objectively watch that game again, & judge Matt for who he is & not who we want him to be, they'd have to conclude that Matt looked good.

Honoring Earl 34
02-09-2013, 02:34 PM
Right after the New England loss in the play offs, I posted saying Kubiak screwed the pooch by not trying to get Matt into a rhytm. Not using 3+ WR sets predominately to start the game & get Matt comfy.

I went back & watched that game again a couple of weeks later & that's exactly what he did. It wasn't no huddle, but it was not as slow as a normal huddle. It was 3+ receivers for the majority of our snaps.

& no one wants to hear it, but Matt looked good. Not incredible, but good. There were those two goofy plays where he pulled the ball down & tried to make something happen, but other than that.....

I'd like to see the all 22. The only reason I can think Matt didn't throw deep often, was because there was no one deep often & we never got into 5 step drop territory.... & by that, I mean we were never successfull enough with our 3 step drops that Matt could take deep drops & plays downfield could open up. Seemed like every time we tried, he was forced to throw it early.

I think if anyone would objectively watch that game again, & judge Matt for who he is & not who we want him to be, they'd have to conclude that Matt looked good.

In baseball , Matt would be a junk ball pitcher . He doesn't have the fastball to set up his other pitches so he relies on location and keeping them off balance . This would make Matt much better on an 0-2 or 2nd and 3yd count / to go , because he cause his full arsenal .

When Kubiak gets hard headed and tries to run early and often against a team with a big DL , he puts Matt in 3rd and long . That puts Matt in bad way .

leebigeztx
02-09-2013, 05:59 PM
To me, 3rd down conversion and redzone effeciency are qb related things. Even breaking that down more, 3&5 or less ,td% from 25 to15 yd line, 15yd line to 7,and 7 and in are critical. And also qb related. Small windows,tighter throws,decisive winning plays. The fact that I'm willing to bet without looking that daniels and walters probably have more rz targets than aj.

thunderkyss
02-09-2013, 07:00 PM
To me, 3rd down conversion and redzone effeciency are qb related things. Even breaking that down more, 3&5 or less ,td% from 25 to15 yd line, 15yd line to 7,and 7 and in are critical. And also qb related. Small windows,tighter throws,decisive winning plays. The fact that I'm willing to bet without looking that daniels and walters probably have more rz targets than aj.

Without looking I bet Arian has more touchdowns than any of them & they have nothing to do with the QB. but everything to do with RZ efficiency.