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badboy
01-30-2013, 04:09 PM
This article lists stats but chart will not copy/paste; must go to link to see or click on second link and pull out individual WR

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1506167-houston-texans-advanced-stat-of-the-week-catch-rate-and-third-receiver?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=houston-texans


As it turned out, they should have been more worried about how to replace Jacoby Jones.

Garrett Graham stepped in at tight end and managed to replicate Dreessen quite well. He wasn't as explosive on a per-catch basis, but his catch rate was virtually identical.

Where the Texans suffered was in replacing Jones.

(Table of stats)


Jones was released after the 2012 draft in what proved to be a colossal mistake. Not only did he have a standout season on special teams, making the Pro Bowl for the AFC, but the Texans had no way to replace his modest production in the passing game.

Full NFL results here http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

CloakNNNdagger
01-30-2013, 04:14 PM
This should help:)

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/article/media_slots/photos/000/700/720/Texans_original.jpg?1359467565

Scooter
01-30-2013, 04:37 PM
that's a little misleading. we werent missing jacoby per se, we were missing speed and someone that schaub trusted enough to throw to. andre davis had near identical numbers in 2007 when he was the #3 and spot starter with AJ's injury ... 33rec, 580yds, 3tds. posey looked like he was turning into that player at the end, but the injury may change that. it's my opinion we need a mid-sized or bigger speed freak on the other side because schaub has shown an affinity for targeting those guys on open plays (those not aimed at freeing up a single receiver). we could be even more potent than atlanta's passing attack with only that one addition, considering martin and posey could round out the rotation for years.

this is a draft where we have several picks. i'd trade up to knock out two positions with starters - wide receiver and right tackle. from there we find a real fullback as UDFA or free agent, FINALLY move casey to tightend, and our offense is essentially finished. everything else give to the defense to load up depth.

edit: MSR - great stats badboy

badboy
01-30-2013, 05:28 PM
Where was that "time to get rid of Walter" thread again?

:rolleyes:Interesting but Walter's stats don't look that bad to me in themselves. More concerned about the Posey, Jean and Martin failure to launch. That is totally ridiculous. Posey caught 43% & Martin 36%. What bothers me is how many dink passes we see that are successfull but do not move ball much. If a pass does not get you 5 yards or more, better to run. There are some exceptions of course but for most part.

Texn4life
01-30-2013, 06:56 PM
When the owner comes out and says we need more speed at receiver then that's a pretty clear sign changes will be made. I don't mind Walter coming back, but not as a second option at Wideout. If the team can find a way to make it work financially then I have no problem with him coming back as our 3rd or 4th receiver.

tru80texan
01-30-2013, 07:18 PM
Combine % and YPR and Walter is our second best receiver. I don't think he is going anywhere.

Give me a break. Walter is NOT a #2wr by any stretch of the imagination & I'm glad McNair finally went on the record saying a wr is needed. Walter's stats are garbage compared to most #2 wr's & even some #3's. Save the "walter is great or seviceable" crap for the bandwagon & fairweather fans who don't know any better. Walters saving grace as always been his "sure" hands & his overrated run blocking. Well, his hands are not so sure any longer as he barely beat a TE who almost had twice as many targets & was outperformed by Andre who nearly tripled his targets. I guess being able to get some seperation would increase his target numbers but we all know that's a lost cause.

41 receptions for a little over 500yrds & 2 TD's over 16 games is not what is expected from any #2 wr & at best can be described as mediocre. Having said that, for a guy who constantly rants & raves about poor QB play it seems to be a bit hypocritical to praise a poor excuse for a #2 wr. Pitiful play is pitiful play regardless of the position or the players name imo.

Scooter
01-30-2013, 07:21 PM
Combine % and YPR and Walter is our second best receiver. I don't think he is going anywhere.

not to turn this into another walter thread, but i dont completely trust his numbers because it seems we have to scheme to get him open. great hands, and he's money in traffic, but he cant get any separation and is invisible on most plays.

steelbtexan
01-30-2013, 07:52 PM
that's a little misleading. we werent missing jacoby per se, we were missing speed and someone that schaub trusted enough to throw to. andre davis had near identical numbers in 2007 when he was the #3 and spot starter with AJ's injury ... 33rec, 580yds, 3tds. posey looked like he was turning into that player at the end, but the injury may change that. it's my opinion we need a mid-sized or bigger speed freak on the other side because schaub has shown an affinity for targeting those guys on open plays (those not aimed at freeing up a single receiver). we could be even more potent than atlanta's passing attack with only that one addition, considering martin and posey could round out the rotation for years.

this is a draft where we have several picks. i'd trade up to knock out two positions with starters - wide receiver and right tackle. from there we find a real fullback as UDFA or free agent, FINALLY move casey to tightend, and our offense is essentially finished. everything else give to the defense to load up depth.

edit: MSR - great stats badboy

I kinda like this plan, except somewhere late in the draft I would try to add another WR with speed in case Posey cant make it back next yr. (A developmental type guy)

Uncle Rico
01-30-2013, 09:39 PM
there is nothing misleading about 17 yards per catch. hopefully i can watch him doing the choppa city juke in the superbowl and say 'hey he used to be a texan'

Corrosion
01-30-2013, 09:45 PM
Where was that "time to get rid of Walter" thread again?

:rolleyes:

I dont want to see him gone .... I just want to see him pushed down the depth chart.

We all know the bigger issue is the QB .... he just cant make some throws or fit balls into tight windows and the offense is limited because of it. That probably has more to do with people thinking the playcalling is predictable than anything else. (But its funny how the Pats ran those same plays against the Texansand it was a brilliant game plan).

badboy
01-30-2013, 10:10 PM
Combine % and YPR and Walter is our second best receiver. I don't think he is going anywhere.and that is why Kubiak is so loyal to him, that + his blocking that many seemingly want to disregard. Posey was blocking better towards end of season but that was about all.

tru80texan
01-30-2013, 10:37 PM
and that is why Kubiak is so loyal to him, that + his blocking that many seemingly want to disregard. Posey was blocking better towards end of season but that was about all.

Yeah, and Kubiaks judgment on whom he is loyal to has always been spot on & never called into question. Kubiaks loyality is one of his worst attributes that is often criticized for being a day late & dollar short on making appropriate personnel moves. Marciano, Frank Bush, Kris Brown anyone....:rolleyes:

It doesn't matter how deep & desperate some of y'all dig to try & justify Walter, in the end he is still not a legit #2 wr & almost all outside of Houston not drinking the Battle Koolaid know it. Its a shame how foolish some of us act by actually trying to convince ourselves & others into believing that some how averaging 2.6 catches for 32.4 yards & .13 TD's per game is actually worthy of being a starter in the NFL. The silliness is endless.

If any fan from any other team mentioned those numbers to us & then followed it w/ "that's our great #2 wr", he would be laughed at like no other & called a fool by many. Now we know how some Texan fans look to others w/ this Walter gibberish. The blocking is 100% overrated because I have yet to hear that ANY of the wr's have issues run blocking nor is it a glaring issue that all notice. Thus they all seem adequate at it, but the desperation kicks in w/ the Walter lovers & something, no matter how little & frivolous it is, needs to be found to justify the good ol' Kevin Walter. Geez....:choke:

badboy
01-30-2013, 10:50 PM
Yeah, and Kubiaks judgment on whom he is loyal to has always been spot on & never called into question. Kubiaks loyality is one of his worst attributes that is often criticized for being a day late & dollar short on making appropriate personnel moves. Marciano, Frank Bush, Kris Brown anyone....:rolleyes:

It doesn't matter how deep & desperate some of y'all dig to try & justify Walter, in the end he is still not a legit #2 wr & almost all outside of Houston not drinking the Battle Koolaid know it. Its a shame how foolish some of us act by actually trying to convince ourselves & others into believing that some how averaging 2.6 catches for 32.4 yards & .13 TD's per game is actually worthy of being a starter in the NFL. The silliness is endless.

If any fan from any other team mentioned those numbers to us & then followed it w/ "that's our great #2 wr", he would be laughed at like no other & called a fool by many. Now we know how some Texan fans look to others w/ this Walter gibberish. The blocking is 100% overrated because I have yet to hear that ANY of the wr's have issues run blocking nor is it a glaring issue that all notice. Thus they all seem adequate at it, but the desperation kicks in w/ the Walter lovers & something, no matter how little & frivolous it is, needs to be found to justify the good ol' Kevin Walter. Geez....:choke:Don't mistakenly think I am supporting Walter BUT if you identify a problem, come with a solution or at least say you don't have one. I see few in draft who should be avail that will supplant Walter immediately. Posey was a failure as has been Jean.

You may consider blocking being over rated but is well known to be a requirement of Kubiak's to get on the field.

Also, just as a note about my thinking, I have constantly mocked WR in first round for 2013.

Ridicule Gary's loyalty but it ranks behind McNair's. Not saying it is not an issue but remains something to deal with.

deucetx
01-30-2013, 11:39 PM
Ugh, Walter talk again. Amazing how everyone and their mother can see we are amazingly lacking at the #2 but some of us can not because we see a couple of stats. Well if it is stats we want stats we shall have!

As pointed on another thread right here: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=98181

Which will lead you to this PFF article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...per-route-run/

Walter was amongst the lowest in YPRR (yards per route run). In other words, very short routes is all he largely contributed. If you think no other can attribute this then that is a stretch. Others can and it isn't terribly difficult to replace that. The problem is finding someone to do more and give us a true playmaker which is what this coaching staff has been trying to find. They aren't trying because Walter is burning it up. It is obvious they want something more from this spot than a 'Dink and Dunk Tanto' The guy simply gets little separation. Catch% is nice but means little if you can't get open without the system/scheme providing it. As we learned, you can't always rely on play-action.

Secondly, let's talk about an offense that has came to rely on playmakers making something of the short-medium range passes. Well to that effect Walter averaged 2.5 YAC. Yeah....once again, amongst the lower end of the spectrum. What does this mean? He is not a playmaker. Really simple as that and something practically everyone says this team needs.

Now the whole blocking mantra. Folks...it's not that hard to block at receiver. It doesn't take tremendous effort so let's quit the exaggeration of finding Walter's blocking ability as a reason to keep going down this path. Let's look at PFF grades in this category for receivers since it is one of the only sources for such:

The highest graded blocker is Reggie Wayne at 5.9
The lowest graded blocker is Armon Binns at -3.5

The difference from highest to lowest is that small of a window because we're not talking about something that is difficult to achieve. Sheesh, Danny Amendola graded higher than Walter and he is no physical specimen at receiver. Walter and Dre had highest for the Texans at 1.4. Our other guys? 0.9 (Martin/Jean) and 0.4 (Posey). Not a huge difference here. Why? Once again...it isn't that hard. Out of 206 receivers a whopping total of 18 even graded in the red in this category. It's that small of a differential.

So yes, Walter can block. Is it out of the park? No. He has NEVER graded in the top 10 since 2008 (Dre has). In fact, Jacoby outperformed him in this category every year except last year. So yeah...it's exaggerated a bit. Does he have good hands? Yes. But how much does that matter if he can't separate consistently? Kind of easy to get a high percentage with short throws, is it not?

This is a league of playmakers and there is nothing to illustrate Walter is one in the least.

badboy
01-30-2013, 11:47 PM
Ugh, Walter talk again. Amazing how everyone and their mother can see we are amazingly lacking at the #2 but some of us can not because we see a couple of stats. Well if it is stats we want stats we shall have!

As pointed on another thread right here: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=98181

Which will lead you to this PFF article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...per-route-run/

Walter was amongst the lowest in YPRR (yards per route run). In other words, very short routes is all he largely contributed. If you think no other can attribute this then that is a stretch. Others can and it isn't terribly difficult to replace that. The problem is finding someone to do more and give us a true playmaker which is what this coaching staff has been trying to find. They aren't trying because Walter is burning it up. It is obvious they want something more from this spot than a 'Dink and Dunk Tanto' The guy simply gets little separation. Catch% is nice but means little if you can't get open without the system/scheme providing it. As we learned, you can't always rely on play-action.

Secondly, let's talk about an offense that has came to rely on playmakers making something of the short-medium range passes. Well to that effect Walter averaged 2.5 YAC. Yeah....once again, amongst the lower end of the spectrum. What does this mean? He is not a playmaker. Really simple as that and something practically everyone says this team needs.

Now the whole blocking mantra. Folks...it's not that hard to block at receiver. It doesn't take tremendous effort so let's quit the exaggeration of finding Walter's blocking ability as a reason to keep going down this path. Let's look at PFF grades in this category for receivers since it is one of the only sources for such:

The highest graded blocker is Reggie Wayne at 5.9
The lowest graded blocker is Armon Binns at -3.5

The difference from highest to lowest is that small of a window because we're not talking about something that is difficult to achieve. Sheesh, Danny Amendola graded higher than Walter and he is no physical specimen at receiver. Walter and Dre had highest for the Texans at 1.4. Our other guys? 0.9 (Martin/Jean) and 0.4 (Posey). Not a huge difference here. Why? Once again...it isn't that hard. Out of 206 receivers a whopping total of 18 even graded in the red in this category. It's that small of a differential.

So yes, Walter can block. Is it out of the park? No. He has NEVER graded in the top 10 since 2008 (Dre has). In fact, Jacoby outperformed him in this category every year except last year. So yeah...it's exaggerated a bit. Does he have good hands? Yes. But how much does that matter if he can't separate consistently? Kind of easy to get a high percentage with short throws, is it not?

This is a league of playmakers and there is nothing to illustrate Walter is one in the least.Thread is not about Walter but all WRs. My focus is on Posey, Martin and Jean but each poster has right to state opinion on any listed including other team players. Also, I think NFL is full of players who fill needs but are not playmakers, even at QB.

tru80texan
01-31-2013, 06:36 AM
Don't mistakenly think I am supporting Walter BUT if you identify a problem, come with a solution or at least say you don't have one. I see few in draft who should be avail that will supplant Walter immediately. Posey was a failure as has been Jean.

You may consider blocking being over rated but is well known to be a requirement of Kubiak's to get on the field.

Also, just as a note about my thinking, I have constantly mocked WR in first round for 2013.

Ridicule Gary's loyalty but it ranks behind McNair's. Not saying it is not an issue but remains something to deal with.

How can you come to that conclusion based on a very small sampling of work? That's a bit premature to assume they are failures when they are barely given opportunities. I'm not so quick to judge based on their handful of plays that they got combined towards the end of the season. I need a bit more before deeming basically a majority of the wr corp busts because Kubiaks man love for a run blocking specialist runs so deep that he foolishly kept marching the run blocker out there week in & week out instead of giving other wr's a true opportunity to get on the field & make plays. Sure their performances at practices may have dictated whether or not they earned those opportunities, but most of us can attest to the fact that kubiak is loyal to a fault & not necessarily to the best options. For that reasoning alone we can't say it was the wr's actions or the stubbornness of the overly loyal HC. I think I will hold out for a bigger sampling from our young wr's before I deem them failures. That only seems fair. Production can only happen w/ opportunity, which the latter is something that they didn't get much of.

deucetx
01-31-2013, 09:13 AM
Thread is not about Walter but all WRs. My focus is on Posey, Martin and Jean but each poster has right to state opinion on any listed including other team players. Also, I think NFL is full of players who fill needs but are not playmakers, even at QB.

Even going on about the other receivers...how much opportunity were they given for them to be labelled 'failure'? Receiver is one of the hardest developed positions in the league per GM's, scouts, coaches and mere facts. So two rookies and a one year player are failures even when you add they got little time actually on the field or opportunity? That's a bit of a reach. Not all come out the gate like AJ Green or Julio Jones. Those are rare breeds.

Plus I would hardly say Posey was a failure. From week 15 forward he began taking away time from Walter to the point it was almost 50-50 in some games in amount of plays in the game and overly from that stretch and through the playoffs it fell below a 2:1 ratio. That means he progressed and did something at practices and on film that the coaches liked. That is taking the next step forward. Hardly a failure for a kid who didn't even play football the previous season.

That was something positive for the kid. The injury of course may have thrown that out of whack now but the fact we actually saw progress makes that case not a failure. The other two are incomplete so I wouldn't label them failures at this point. Could they turn out to be? Course. But it is too early to judge them to the point of success and failure. A big fat INC grade seems more correct and unfortunately for them, we're a contender now. So they may lose some because we need production today which means another body coming in that may take from their own progress.

thunderkyss
01-31-2013, 09:31 AM
Interesting but Walter's stats don't look that bad to me in themselves. More concerned about the Posey, Jean and Martin failure to launch. That is totally ridiculous. Posey caught 43% & Martin 36%. What bothers me is how many dink passes we see that are successfull but do not move ball much. If a pass does not get you 5 yards or more, better to run. There are some exceptions of course but for most part.

Combine % and YPR and Walter is our second best receiver. I don't think he is going anywhere.

and that is why Kubiak is so loyal to him, that + his blocking that many seemingly want to disregard. Posey was blocking better towards end of season but that was about all.


Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, & Kevin Walter accounted for 215 catches, 2,832 yards, & 12 TDs

Roddy White, Tony Gonzales, and Julio Jones accounted for 264 catches, 3,479 yards, & 25 TDs

Comparing Walter to our receivers doesn't really put KDub's production in perspective to real #2 WR production.

pirbroke
01-31-2013, 10:23 AM
This team does not need fast receivers because when Matt finishes his 3 step drop, all the receivers will already be at the end of their routes. :-)

badboy
01-31-2013, 01:23 PM
How can you come to that conclusion based on a very small sampling of work? That's a bit premature to assume they are failures when they are barely given opportunities. I'm not so quick to judge based on their handful of plays that they got combined towards the end of the season. I need a bit more before deeming basically a majority of the wr corp busts because Kubiaks man love for a run blocking specialist runs so deep that he foolishly kept marching the run blocker out there week in & week out instead of giving other wr's a true opportunity to get on the field & make plays. Sure their performances at practices may have dictated whether or not they earned those opportunities, but most of us can attest to the fact that kubiak is loyal to a fault & not necessarily to the best options. For that reasoning alone we can't say it was the wr's actions or the stubbornness of the overly loyal HC. I think I will hold out for a bigger sampling from our young wr's before I deem them failures. That only seems fair. Production can only happen w/ opportunity, which the latter is something that they didn't get much of.Not saying either should be starters but come on Jean has two years learning system & should have had more than 12 catches from 24 attempts in '12? Sure, I'm willing to give Posey another year but 14 catches at 43% of targets? Then add on to this his penalties = failure. Both could be pro bowlers next season but as for last year...boo. I am grading them on this year as I did with KJ on his first. Does not mean career failure but both get "F" imo for 2012.

I also disagree on your man love comment for Walter blocking; Kevin has history of holding onto the ball. It has been noted on this MB that Kubiak let Posey on field as he had approved in blocking.

badboy
01-31-2013, 01:28 PM
Even going on about the other receivers...how much opportunity were they given for them to be labelled 'failure'? Receiver is one of the hardest developed positions in the league per GM's, scouts, coaches and mere facts. So two rookies and a one year player are failures even when you add they got little time actually on the field or opportunity? That's a bit of a reach. Not all come out the gate like AJ Green or Julio Jones. Those are rare breeds.

Plus I would hardly say Posey was a failure. From week 15 forward he began taking away time from Walter to the point it was almost 50-50 in some games in amount of plays in the game and overly from that stretch and through the playoffs it fell below a 2:1 ratio. That means he progressed and did something at practices and on film that the coaches liked. That is taking the next step forward. Hardly a failure for a kid who didn't even play football the previous season.

That was something positive for the kid. The injury of course may have thrown that out of whack now but the fact we actually saw progress makes that case not a failure. The other two are incomplete so I wouldn't label them failures at this point. Could they turn out to be? Course. But it is too early to judge them to the point of success and failure. A big fat INC grade seems more correct and unfortunately for them, we're a contender now. So they may lose some because we need production today which means another body coming in that may take from their own progress.I think you are seeing incremental improvement and calling that success. Going from a 3 to a 4 is success but hardly what should be expected. I expected more and reasonably so imo.

thunderkyss
01-31-2013, 01:40 PM
I think you are seeing incremental improvement and calling that success. Going from a 3 to a 4 is success but hardly what should be expected. I expected more and reasonably so imo.

I was hoping Devier Posey was going to have a Victor Cruz type year.

tru80texan
01-31-2013, 02:27 PM
Not saying either should be starters but come on Jean has two years learning system & should have had more than 12 catches from 24 attempts in '12? Sure, I'm willing to give Posey another year but 14 catches at 43% of targets? Then add on to this his penalties = failure. Both could be pro bowlers next season but as for last year...boo. I am grading them on this year as I did with KJ on his first. Does not mean career failure but both get "F" imo for 2012.

I also disagree on your man love comment for Walter blocking; Kevin has history of holding onto the ball. It has been noted on this MB that Kubiak let Posey on field as he had approved in blocking.

Of course you disagree concerning the man love for Walters overrated blocking. I would not expect anything less considring you, & many others, try to excuse his ineffectiveness as a wr by justifying it w/ the "great blocker" defense. As I mentioned earlier, NONE of the wr's have ever been criticised by anyone for having glaring deficiencies at run blocking. It just seems that those that choose to defend Walter have to resort to that to glorify him. As far as his "sure" hands or holding on to the ball, that obviously regressed this season based on CnD's chart. Even though others had more opportunities & thus more opportunities to fail he still was outperformed by Andre & right in line w/ Owen. Nothing spectacular by any means, which pretty much describes Walter in a nut shell imo.

You do realize Jean was placed on the IR for the 2011 season & had a knee injury that caused him to miss some time in 2012? Learning a playbook & being on the field to execute it are 2 totally different things. 2011 didn't do much for his development due to being limited on what, if any, team activities he could participate in due to his IR designation. So holding that year against him hardly seems fair when judging him imo. 2012 was basically his rookie season & the knee injury did hamper that as well. Ignoring both of those factors would be foolish when judging him imo. Concerning his production, once again PRODUCTION can only be achieved if given an OPPORTUNITY. The latter is NOT something that Jean, Martin, or Posey got much of until late in the season & even then it was fairly limited.

Comparing all of their rookie seasons to Walter is a bit skewed considering their experience levels & opportunities, but I do understand the desperation in trying raise Walter above the rest w/out giving them a fair chance because it does seem the writing is on the wall for Walter. When the owner speaks, the employees should listen & the owner wants a WR w/ playmaking ability....thank goodness!

76Texan
01-31-2013, 03:14 PM
Once again, looking at a few individual numbers, especially at WR, is for fantasy football owners.

If you want to look at number of catches, at least you have to know many pass attempts a team has. A #2 receiver on a team that throws more "should have" more opportunities to catch the ball.
A team with a great #1 receiver normally target those guys more.

Then you have to look at the philosophy of teams; some look for their TEs more than others; some like to take more shots downfield (at the risk of a lower completion rate and more INTs.)

If you look at Yd per Route Ran, don't forget that Fitzgerald's number is really close to Walter; that doesn't mean that he suck, especially for a #1 receiver.

You may not care for Walter's blocking ability, but other guys on the team do.
They know it gives them the chance to go long.

A number that people seems to ignore is the percentage of deep targets; Walter actually had a higher percentage than AJ last year.

If you look at the pass distribution since Kubiak has been here, Walter's role has been very steady. He plays his role very well. He would get more targets if AJ or OD goes out, things like that.

The dollar value the Texans put on him may look "out of whack" to us fans.
Personally, I had stated before the season started that I hope to see Jean and Posey get involved, but neither showed up consistently. Martin, as the slot guy, was also inconsistent.

None of these guys have done anything remotely close to push Walter down the depth chart.

It's up to Jean and Posey to up their game, but with the setback to Posey, it's not going to be easy.

The good thing is that this upcoming draft class is quite deep at receivers.
With the recent run at the position the last few years (it's going to be less of a need overall in the league), it might be the time for the Texans to look for a receiver or two in the next few drafts.

76Texan
01-31-2013, 03:26 PM
Didn't say he was a #2, just that he was the Texans second best.

That leads me to believe that even if we could pick up a legitimate #2, he is still valuable.

It's just that each fan has a different "definition" of a #2 receiver.

Then, we look back and recall at the time when Kubiak called Walter and Jacoby 2a and 2b; he was really honest there. That is what he looks for in his system: Two guys to complement AJ: One who can stretch the field, and aother to do all the yeoman's work.

thunderkyss
01-31-2013, 03:42 PM
It's just that each fan has a different "definition" of a #2 receiver.

Then, we look back and recall at the time when Kubiak called Walter and Jacoby 2a and 2b; he was really honest there. That is what he looks for in his system: Two guys to complement AJ: One who can stretch the field, and aother to do all the yeoman's work.

I don't know about that. People thought Kubiak & Shanahan "wanted" a RBbC thing in the backfield, but both have shown that when they get a guy who can run, break tackles, catch, & block, they have no problem relying on him as a "feature" back.

Walter is our #2, he & Jacoby were 2a & 2b...... because we didn't have a #2.

I don't think that is what Kubiak wants, I think that's just what he's been able to get with the priority he's been able to put on WR considering all the other issues we've had on the team.

I agree with ckhouston & Rey. Walter isn't worthless, I have no problem if he ended up being the #3 WR on this team.... which is what he is.

I also have no problem with him being the #2 if no one can beat him out. That at least shows us that we don't hand out starting positions just because & they need to be earned.

But I think we need to step up the competition by throwing some elite talent at the position. A 1st or 2nd round WR in the upcoming draft, or a pseudo elite FA.

tru80texan
01-31-2013, 04:08 PM
Once again, looking at a few individual numbers, especially at WR, is for fantasy football owners.

If you want to look at number of catches, at least you have to know many pass attempts a team has. A #2 receiver on a team that throws more "should have" more opportunities to catch the ball.
A team with a great #1 receiver normally target those guys more.

Then you have to look at the philosophy of teams; some look for their TEs more than others; some like to take more shots downfield (at the risk of a lower completion rate and more INTs.)

If you look at Yd per Route Ran, don't forget that Fitzgerald's number is really close to Walter; that doesn't mean that he suck, especially for a #1 receiver.

You may not care for Walter's blocking ability, but other guys on the team do.
They know it gives them the chance to go long.

A number that people seems to ignore is the percentage of deep targets; Walter actually had a higher percentage than AJ last year.

If you look at the pass distribution since Kubiak has been here, Walter's role has been very steady. He plays his role very well. He would get more targets if AJ or OD goes out, things like that.

The dollar value the Texans put on him may look "out of whack" to us fans.
Personally, I had stated before the season started that I hope to see Jean and Posey get involved, but neither showed up consistently. Martin, as the slot guy, was also inconsistent.

None of these guys have done anything remotely close to push Walter down the depth chart.

It's up to Jean and Posey to up their game, but with the setback to Posey, it's not going to be easy.

The good thing is that this upcoming draft class is quite deep at receivers.
With the recent run at the position the last few years (it's going to be less of a need overall in the league), it might be the time for the Texans to look for a receiver or two in the next few drafts.

Individual stats primarily for fantasy football. Now that is laughable to say the least because I'm sure stats are something that is evaluated by many when evaluating players & their worth for contract purposes & so forth. Ignoring stats would be foolish because they do tend to paint the picture of an individuals production even when its the production or lack thereof of another individual on the team.

Which leads me into your gross comparison of Fitzgerald & Walter. It disgusts me that you even suggested that the 2 are even close to each other to be honest, but once again I understand the desperation in the defense of Walter. While Fitzgerald's stats have not been anything spectacular of late we can all reference the multiple QB's STATS that have started for the Cardinals & easily see where the problem lies. So your comparison is skewed to say the least. A wr w/ no legitimate QB vs a wr w/ no legitimate seperation skills who's play has REGRESSED compared to when he 1st arrived, not maintained as you falsely claimed, is far from being accurately portrayed.

Blaming the scheme is just another weak attempt at trying to mask the issue. Walter is a WR. They are expected to make plays. He cannot based on his physical attributes or lack thereof. The reason the TE's are involved are because they are finding openings that Walter simply cannot. When a QB looks at the #1 wr & then the 2 TE's to make plays then there is a problem. I truly doubt the offense is geared to look over the #2 wr as often as it happens. That can easily be proven because when Kubiak was the OC in Denver they had Ed McCafferey & Rod Smith who were very active in the offense. Which proves his system Feb & has incorporated the #2 wr as a receiving option & not only as a blocking option. So its not the system that is limiting Walter, it is Walter limiting the system imo.


Its not that I don't care that Walter can block, its that I don't overly glorify his blocking as many others do in hopes of increasing his value in others eyes. I appreciate that they ALL seem to be able to block fairly adequately because none have been criticised for not being able to block. In other words, its nothing special when they all can do it & I'm sure the teammates appreciate all of them for that.

We can at least agree that there are some decent prospects at wr in the draft. Let's just hope they address it w/ a player who is somewhat prepared to play day 1 as opposed to waiting nearly the full regular season before getting them in there to help this team.

tru80texan
01-31-2013, 04:24 PM
I don't know about that. People thought Kubiak & Shanahan "wanted" a RBbC thing in the backfield, but both have shown that when they get a guy who can run, break tackles, catch, & block, they have no problem relying on him as a "feature" back.

Walter is our #2, he & Jacoby were 2a & 2b...... because we didn't have a #2.

I don't think that is what Kubiak wants, I think that's just what he's been able to get with the priority he's been able to put on WR considering all the other issues we've had on the team.

I agree with ckhouston & Rey. Walter isn't worthless, I have no problem if he ended up being the #3 WR on this team.... which is what he is.

I also have no problem with him being the #2 if no one can beat him out. That at least shows us that we don't hand out starting positions just because & they need to be earned.

But I think we need to step up the competition by throwing some elite talent at the position. A 1st or 2nd round WR in the upcoming draft, or a pseudo elite FA.

I would have no problem with this IF the position was adequately addressed & there was some note worthy competition brought in to compete. Outside of Jacoby & Andre Davis there hasn't been one legitimate FA or rookie brought in to compete. Jacoby was a project just as Posey, Martin, & Jean are. How is that a true competition? An UDFA coming off of a season on the IR & 2 rookies to compete against a vet whom by most accounts is looked upon favorably in the HC's eyes despite his lack of production. Sounds like true competition to me. :rolleyes: Bring in a young vet FA w/ potential or a high draft pick who is highly regarded & lets see a true competition & battle. That simply has not happened by Kubiak & Rick Smith's doing & there is nothing about Walter's poor performance at the #2 that suggest that grass is not greener on the other side.

76Texan
01-31-2013, 04:45 PM
I'm on my IPhone so it's hard for me to cut and paste; let's take things one at a time.

Let's first look at production.

Why don't you (whoever wants to replace Walter) give me the production of the rest in the league (including how many pass attempts those teams had); let's find out where Walter's production in numbers looks like.

76Texan
01-31-2013, 04:56 PM
I would have no problem with this IF the position was adequately addressed & there was some note worthy competition brought in to compete. Outside of Jacoby & Andre Davis there hasn't been one legitimate FA or rookie brought in to compete. Jacoby was a project just as Posey, Martin, & Jean are. How is that a true competition? An UDFA coming off of a season on the IR & 2 rookies to compete against a vet whom by most accounts is looked upon favorably in the HC's eyes despite his lack of production. Sounds like true competition to me. :rolleyes: Bring in a young vet FA w/ potential or a high draft pick who is highly regarded & lets see a true competition & battle. That simply has not happened by Kubiak & Rick Smith's doing & there is nothing about Walter's poor performance at the #2 that suggest that grass is not greener on the other side.

Now, you're talking about Madden.
Let's talk about FA the last couple of years, which guys were on your list?
Then we can talk about the draft, which guys?

You can talk with hindsight all you want; we'll take if from there, giving you all the benefits of most doubts.

tru80texan
01-31-2013, 04:57 PM
I'm on my IPhone so it's hard for me to cut and paste; let's take things one at a time.

Let's first look at production.

Why don't you (whoever wants to replace Walter) give me the production of the rest in the league (including how many pass attempts those teams had); let's find out where Walter's production in numbers looks like.

I'm on my phone as well, which is why I have some mistakes in my typing. I apologize for that. So your request is not going to happen from me & to be honest I'm not going to break down every single aspect of every teams offense in your attempt to justify one players worth. It's a waste of time & foolish because there are multiple NFL analysts/media, local media outlets, fans, & now even the TEXANS owner himself who say the #2 WR position is an issue that NEEDS to be addressed & the reason for that is simple...because it lacks production in its current state. And the player that is lacking....Kevin Walter. Pretty simple regardless of how complicated & indepth that you may try to get in hope of justifying his worth. It simply won't happen & because sometimes the truth is just painfully obvious.

With that being said, I politely agree to disagree because I obviously intend to side w/ the Texans owner on this matter.

tru80texan
01-31-2013, 05:07 PM
Now, you're talking about Madden.
Let's talk about FA the last couple of years, which guys were on your list?
Then we can talk about the draft, which guys?

You can talk with hindsight all you want; we'll take if from there, giving you all the benefits of most doubts.

Madden...you are killing me. I'm well aware of the fact that a salary cap exist & not every position can have an All Pro. You are the one talking Madden if you falsely assumed that only the big name FA can replace Walter. I have mentioned names of the players in other threads that I believe fall in the price range that Walter falls in & have the potential to replace him. Deverey Henderson, Jerome Simpson, Josh Cribbs, Danario Alexander, & Ramadan Barden are just a few that I would consider real competition. Broaden your horizons. Assuming the likes of Bowe & Jennings are the only true options to replace Walter is falling into your Madden & fantasy football stereotype which not something that I have done.

Dang it! I said I was finished & got sucked back in. LOL!

76Texan
01-31-2013, 05:37 PM
I'm on my phone as well, which is why I have some mistakes in my typing. I apologize for that. So your request is not going to happen from me & to be honest I'm not going to break down every single aspect of every teams offense in your attempt to justify one players worth. It's a waste of time & foolish because there are multiple NFL analysts/media, local media outlets, fans, & now even the TEXANS owner himself who say the #2 WR position is an issue that NEEDS to be addressed & the reason for that is simple...because it lacks production in its current state. And the player that is lacking....Kevin Walter. Pretty simple regardless of how complicated & indepth that you may try to get in hope of justifying his worth. It simply won't happen & because sometimes the truth is just painfully obvious.

With that being said, I politely agree to disagree because I obviously intend to side w/ the Texans owner on this matter.

There's nothing new there.
I've already mentioned Jacoby as the speed guy; that the system needs a speed guy.
They used Andre Davis before Jacoby; then they drafted Posey after Jacoby.
(In the draft forum; I wanted an even faster guy, but I can't really fault their draft strategy.)

It's easy to just point at something we don't like after a season; it's another matter to build a roster before the season starts.

At any rate, the off-season is long; you have plenty of time to quantify your concern.
It won't have to be whining just for the sake of whining.
If your time is not worth it, I will understand.

Many of us will still be here, no matter that we disagree on certain thing.

76Texan
01-31-2013, 05:39 PM
Madden...you are killing me. I'm well aware of the fact that a salary cap exist & not every position can have an All Pro. You are the one talking Madden if you falsely assumed that only the big name FA can replace Walter. I have mentioned names of the players in other threads that I believe fall in the price range that Walter falls in & have the potential to replace him. Deverey Henderson, Jerome Simpson, Josh Cribbs, Danario Alexander, & Ramadan Barden are just a few that I would consider real competition. Broaden your horizons. Assuming the likes of Bowe & Jennings are the only true options to replace Walter is falling into your Madden & fantasy football stereotype which not something that I have done.

Dang it! I said I was finished & got sucked back in. LOL!

In the days ahead, we will visit these names.

sandman
01-31-2013, 05:40 PM
Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, & Kevin Walter accounted for 215 catches, 2,832 yards, & 12 TDs

Roddy White, Tony Gonzales, and Julio Jones accounted for 264 catches, 3,479 yards, & 25 TDs

Comparing Walter to our receivers doesn't really put KDub's production in perspective to real #2 WR production.

Might need to pick a different team for a reasonable comparison.

Foster had more yards rushing this year than the entire Falcons team.

The Texans rushed over 500 times, almost 125 more times than Atlanta. So OF COURSE their top 3 receivers are going to have more catches, because they passed the ball more.

That being said, here are a few interesting TEAM stats between the two:

1. The average yard per catch for the Big Three on BOTH teams was 13.2
2. The aveage yard per catch for all other players was higher for the Texans by a full yard
3. The Falcons had 65% of their attempts go to their Big Three, while the Texans only had 60%
4. The Falcons had 75% of their total receiving yards gained by their Big Three, while the Texans had 70%

What does all that mean? That the Texans did a better job of utilizing their entire receiving, tight end and running back corps in their passing game.

Now let's talk about the Patriots, who kicked Texan ass twice this season. Their Big Three were targeted at the same rate at the Texans Big Three, had fewer yards per catch and fewer of their total team receiving yards.

And yet, all of their other receivers averaged almost the same yards per catch as their Big Three. In other words, they killed everyone with a multitude of smaller weapons.

And in all honesty, if you are asking me to choose between a Big Three like Atlanta or the Patriot Receiver by Committee, I'll take the proven success of New England.

thunderkyss
01-31-2013, 08:06 PM
That simply has not happened by Kubiak & Rick Smith's doing & there is nothing about Walter's poor performance at the #2 that suggest that grass is not greener on the other side.

Because the defense sucked & Kubiak has been able to put together a top 10 offense, for the most part, with the likes of KDub.

We spent a 6th to get Myers. Two 2nds to get Schaub, a 3rd on Spencer (injured his rookie season), a 3rd on Winston (cap casualty), a 2nd on Tate (year 4 coming up), & some FA dollars on Wade Smith.

Other than that, we invested most of our capital on the defensive side of the ball...... because it was needed.

Now that we've got the well respected Wade Phillips, hopefully we'll see more second/third day picks (is there a third day anymore?) significantly contribute to the success of this team & we can spend some of our assets on offense.

I still think Posey was a good shot..... not for this season, but for the future, & I don't think Jacoby was a waste. I think he progressed well & the Texans chose wrong in keeping Walter... but both are #3s.... you can only get away with paying #3 WRs $1M+ for so long.

thunderkyss
01-31-2013, 08:09 PM
I'm on my IPhone so it's hard for me to cut and paste; let's take things one at a time.

Let's first look at production.

Why don't you (whoever wants to replace Walter) give me the production of the rest in the league (including how many pass attempts those teams had); let's find out where Walter's production in numbers looks like.

Because bad WRs don't get the ball thrown at them.

thunderkyss
01-31-2013, 08:36 PM
And in all honesty, if you are asking me to choose between a Big Three like Atlanta or the Patriot Receiver by Committee, I'll take the proven success of New England.

You make a good argument.

Different strokes & all that. Their star WR is their slot WR. He's the Yac guy. Our Yac guy is Andre. Their other big play maker is Gronk. We got OD, a step down, but OD is better than your avg TE. Their speed guy is Lloyd. Who is our speed guy? Oh, that's Andre again.

So what function does Walter play? He's not stretching the field. He's not a play maker. He's not a mismatch for anyone on the defensive side of the ball. He's our "possession" guy..... but Andre is a better possession WR than Walter & he's more likely to get thrown to on 3rd down... so what is Walter's purpose again?

Our #1 receiver vs their #1 receiver;
--Andre 1598 yards 4TDs
--Welker 1354 yards 6 TDs

comparable I think.

Our TE vs their TE
--Owen 716 yards, 6 TDs
--Gronk 790 yards, 11 TDs

Comparable... sorta

Our #2 WR vs their #2
--KDub 518 yards, 2 TDs
--Lloyd 911 yards, 4 TDs


:cricket:


By the way, New England had more rushing attempts than we did.


New England also had a guy, 51 catches, 483 yards, 5 TDs..... pretty comparable to Walter

They've got another guy, 40 catches, 446 yards, 3 TDs... pretty comparable to Walter.

That's Aaron Hernandez their 2nd TE & Danny Woodhead their 3rd down back.

sandman
02-01-2013, 11:56 AM
You make a good argument.

Different strokes & all that. Their star WR is their slot WR. He's the Yac guy. Our Yac guy is Andre. Their other big play maker is Gronk. We got OD, a step down, but OD is better than your avg TE. Their speed guy is Lloyd. Who is our speed guy? Oh, that's Andre again.

So what function does Walter play? He's not stretching the field. He's not a play maker. He's not a mismatch for anyone on the defensive side of the ball. He's our "possession" guy..... but Andre is a better possession WR than Walter & he's more likely to get thrown to on 3rd down... so what is Walter's purpose again?

Our #1 receiver vs their #1 receiver;
--Andre 1598 yards 4TDs
--Welker 1354 yards 6 TDs

comparable I think.

Our TE vs their TE
--Owen 716 yards, 6 TDs
--Gronk 790 yards, 11 TDs

Comparable... sorta

Our #2 WR vs their #2
--KDub 518 yards, 2 TDs
--Lloyd 911 yards, 4 TDs


:cricket:


By the way, New England had more rushing attempts than we did.


New England also had a guy, 51 catches, 483 yards, 5 TDs..... pretty comparable to Walter

They've got another guy, 40 catches, 446 yards, 3 TDs... pretty comparable to Walter.

That's Aaron Hernandez their 2nd TE & Danny Woodhead their 3rd down back.

The important thing to note that while their "Big Three" have more catches/yards than the Texans "Big Three", NE had 100+ more pass attempts than the Texans. That is why I was showing it based on percentages, to normalize the comparison.

The ball distribution percentages between the Patriots and Texans are very similar. It's just that NE does it a hell of a lot better than the Texans.

It's their ability to trot out #4 through #8 and have them get the same average YPC that their starters do that make them so dangerous. I don't have an issue with the Texans having a cadre of 40-60 reception WR/TE.

And yes, NE was just as good as the Texans with rushing this year. The point I was trying to make is that while the Texans have a similar offense to NE, the Patriots are CLEARLY better in executing it. I want the Texans to get better in what they already do, than to go after another "stud" receiver.

If you look at the Broncos, their "Big Three" stats from a percentage perspective is just like the Texans and Patriots.

Heck, the Ravens had FOUR receivers between 50-65 receptions (and none over 65) and yet are in the Super Bowl. In fact, in a quick check of all of the other playoff teams, only San Fran had the same percentage disparity to their "Big Three" as the Falcons did, and yet their #2 (TE) and #3 (WR) guys caught 42 passes each. And yet, despite catching 20 less balls than the Texans #2 (TE) and #3 (WR), they are in the Super Bowl as well.

Again, not saying the Texans can't do what they do in the passing game a whole lot better, starting with the QB position, but there is league wide statistical evidence that the successful teams this year utilized their entire receiving corps a whole lot more than locking into a Big Three.

And I think with the rules heavily favoring the offenses and QB's, you've got to be able to put out multiple receiver sets and take advantage of it.

I'll say it again, KW is not the reason this offense faltered later in the season. I've always supported Schaub, but it sits on his shoulders. Well, and Dennison for the completely predictable and unimaginative play-calling.

76Texan
02-01-2013, 12:31 PM
Don't forget their offensive line, whether they truly ranked second as per PFF or not, that is a very very good unit.

Ours might be ranked tenth, but I think the scheme, help them out some with the flow going one way and the roll out to the opposite direction, taking some stress off the Olinemen.

deucetx
02-01-2013, 12:32 PM
I'll say it again, KW is not the reason this offense faltered later in the season. I've always supported Schaub, but it sits on his shoulders. Well, and Dennison for the completely predictable and unimaginative play-calling.

And no one is saying Walter is at fault for the offense. That would be a bit silly. Saying that a piece needs to be upgraded does not equal the entire offense sitting on their shoulders. But plain and simple we aren't getting enough out of that position. Yeah it rest on Schaub shoulders but he isn't going anywhere. So we sit around going with status quo or do we upgrade and get better? Oh and Dennison doesn't call the plays. Kubiak does. He just has input.

Even the teams you brought up, every receiver in those equations is more talented than Walter as a receiver. There are no if's and's or but's about it. And an offense can only be executed up to the level of your personnel. If you have only one receiver capable of stretching a field or getting open without a scheme/playaction, you are hindered offensively. People seem to not think that maybe Walter isn't targetted even more because they don't find him as capable? He lost plays to Posey from week 15+ for a reason.

And if you want to hit percentages here are five quarterbacks who threw it less or more than Schaub (544):

Denver (583) - Best comparison: Stokley - 45 rec 544yds 5tds 58 targets 9.9% target (4th option tied w/Dressn) Stokley had a lower target percent to Walter (12.3 to 9.9) yet still had better production. And again, 4th option.

Oakland (565) - Heyward-Bey 41rec 606yards 5tds 80 targets 12.7% target

Tampa Bay (558) - No one to really compare. Their top two were targetted 20%+ (Jackson/Williams) and are of course better than Walter. Closes to Walter % was Martin the RB who almost had better numbers than Walter from that position which is a bit sad.

Green Bay (552) - They all out produced Walter (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) but we'll take the guy with the closes percentage in Nelson - 49 rec 745yards 7tds 73 targets 13.1 target%

St. Louis (551) TE Kendricks 42 rec 519 yards 4td's 11.5% (Top 3 receivers all better than Walter but w/ target % from 14.5 - 18.1)

NYG (536) WR Hixon 39 rec 567 yards 2tds 10.9% (again 4th option as top two receivers and TE out-produced Walter easily)

Baltimore (531) WR Jones 30 rec 409 yards 1td 9.6% (5th option. Top receivers easily better than Walter, TE and Rice almost did better than Walter too)

Cincinati (528) WR Hawkins 51 rec 533 yards 4td's 14.8% (3rd options but everyone else too low target%. Since this one is 2% more than Walter wouldn't bother)

San Diego (527) TE Gates 49 rec. 538 yards 7tds 14.8% (3rd option. Next closes is RB Ronnie Brown)

Cleveland (517) TE Watson 49 rec. 501 yards 3tds 14.5% (3rd option as receivers...once again...higher. RB Richardson closes)

Kevin Walter - 41 rec 518 yards 2tds 12.3% target percentage

Just looking at this it is almost seemingly like we are running three TE sets out there because Walter simply does not contribute as he use to. And no, this isn't just system base because under Kubiak we got more from receivers in the past including Walter in '07 and '08. In '06 our 2nd option was a receiver as well in Moulds. But this is 2013 and what can Walter contribute now?

And for the ones saying 'fanbase' this is not just the fans. Folks outside the organization say it as well. Heck, our owner said it. We need more from this position. We saw this in the playoffs and it should be apparent. Heck I took random mock drafts just for the feel how others think we should go and the breakdown was WR 5, ILB 4, Safety 2, TE 1, DT 1. But let's even look at our receiving playoff numbers:

Walter was 4th in receptions, last in yards, 2nd lowest avg. per reception (only Foster was lower by .3), and the lowest 1st down percentage. Yes, Posey did better than Walter on his few catches and less targets. It helped he can actually get down the field.

Defense simply bogged down, increased their presence in the box and began to stifle our offense. We can always go into the system with more of the same and hope it works. Or maybe we can evolve the offense by adding a playmaker at a spot most teams get more contribution for and take the offense to another level. Walter isn't faster now than he was in '08 so chances are we aren't getting that guy again. You don't get faster as you age.

And we can try to disregard stats if we wish but GM, scouts, etc. do not. PFF for example is utilized by a handful of actual NFL clubs. Two have admitted as such in the Giants and Bears. It is already illustrated Walter is not the top ten blocking WR that many seem to perceive he is. Receiving wise? He is ranked #72 among 105 receivers that got at least 25% of the snaps.

Simply put. There is no stat out there to illustrate Walter is a strong #2 receiver in this league. Nada. There are more numbers pointing to the complete opposite. Is he a bad receiver? Of course not. But he is not a #2 and this offense needs more weapons because Schaub will be the quarterback whether we like it or not (unless someone just comes in and goes lights out) and Kubiak will still call the plays. Something has to change and those two pieces aren't going to.

thunderkyss
02-01-2013, 01:04 PM
The important thing to note that while their "Big Three" have more catches/yards than the Texans "Big Three", NE had 100+ more pass attempts than the Texans. That is why I was showing it based on percentages, to normalize the comparison.

The only problem with the "normalizing" argument I have, is that the QB will throw the ball to open receivers more than he would throw to covered receivers.

If the guy is not getting open it affects the percentage, it affects the "normalization"



The ball distribution percentages between the Patriots and Texans are very similar. It's just that NE does it a hell of a lot better than the Texans.

I'm talking about more than just distribution, I'm talking about production per catch. It's not that Torry Smith caught more balls than Walter... he did more with those catches.

Imho, Baltimore & New England have a much better WR corps than we do, because they've got multiple play makers. Welker & Lloyd will hurt you in different ways. Boldin & Smith will hurt you in different ways. In 2012, we only had one WR on the field that had any chance of making a play with any regularity. That hurt us. It hurt us in the run game, it hurt us in the passing game, it hurt us in the red zone.


The point I was trying to make is that while the Texans have a similar offense to NE, the Patriots are CLEARLY better in executing it. I want the Texans to get better in what they already do, than to go after another "stud" receiver.

Me too.... I'd like for them to get better at what they do as well, I don't want to ditch the play-book.

But the draft is coming. FA is coming. Why waste an opportunity to add talent to your offense?

Maybe you're thinking we need more help on the OL. & we might. But I liked what I saw from our young guys & they're only going to get better.

I'm worried that Posey isn't going to be the guy we need him to be (because of the injury) in 2013 & I "know" KDub isn't going to get any better.


If you look at the Broncos, their "Big Three" stats from a percentage perspective is just like the Texans and Patriots.

Heck, the Ravens had FOUR receivers between 50-65 receptions (and none over 65) and yet are in the Super Bowl. In fact, in a quick check of all of the other playoff teams, only San Fran had the same percentage disparity to their "Big Three" as the Falcons did, and yet their #2 (TE) and #3 (WR) guys caught 42 passes each. And yet, despite catching 20 less balls than the Texans #2 (TE) and #3 (WR), they are in the Super Bowl as well.

Again, with the Ravens.... It's not about how many balls they caught, it's what they did with it. What's more dangerous, two 1000 yard receivers? Or one?

Two makes it more difficult for the defense to "figure you out"

Andre & Walter combine for 2000 yards, where Bolden & Torry Smith combine for 1700. If you were designing a defense to stop these two offenses, which is going to spread you out more? Which one is going to back up your defense more? LBs... deeper, DBs... deeper? Which one opens up the run game more? If I'm facing the Texans, I'm more likely to blitz, because I basically got a free DB running around out there.


Again, not saying the Texans can't do what they do in the passing game a whole lot better, starting with the QB position, but there is league wide statistical evidence that the successful teams this year utilized their entire receiving corps a whole lot more than locking into a Big Three.

Then you've misunderstood me. I am not suggesting we lock onto our big three anymore than we do. I'm saying we should get more production from our big three, which will open it up for 4 thru 8, the running backs, the OL, & the QB.

I'll say it again, KW is not the reason this offense faltered later in the season. I've always supported Schaub, but it sits on his shoulders. Well, and Dennison for the completely predictable and unimaginative play-calling.

I don't blame Kevin Walter for being Kevin Walter. I blame Posey & Jean for not being able to get on the field sooner. I blame Kubiak for not getting them ready sooner. & I blame Matt Schaub for not getting that chemistry going like it needed to be.

I like Walter, but he's got a place on this team that is defined by his ability & his production, just like Jacoby Jones. They are not #2 WRs, they are #3 WRs.

Show me a #2 that you'd trade KDub for that produces what KDub does. Don't bring me #3 WRs that are younger, show me a #2 that is comparable to Kevin Walter.

sandman
02-01-2013, 01:16 PM
And no one is saying Walter is at fault for the offense. That would be a bit silly. Saying that a piece needs to be upgraded does not equal the entire offense sitting on their shoulders. But plain and simple we aren't getting enough out of that position. Yeah it rest on Schaub shoulders but he isn't going anywhere. So we sit around going with status quo or do we upgrade and get better? Oh and Dennison doesn't call the plays. Kubiak does. He just has input.

Even the teams you brought up, every receiver in those equations is more talented than Walter as a receiver. There are no if's and's or but's about it. And an offense can only be executed up to the level of your personnel. If you have only one receiver capable of stretching a field or getting open without a scheme/playaction, you are hindered offensively. People seem to not think that maybe Walter isn't targetted even more because they don't find him as capable? He lost plays to Posey from week 15+ for a reason.

And if you want to hit percentages here are five quarterbacks who threw it less or more than Schaub (544):

Denver (583) - Best comparison: Stokley - 45 rec 544yds 5tds 58 targets 9.9% target (4th option tied w/Dressn) Stokley had a lower target percent to Walter (12.3 to 9.9) yet still had better production. And again, 4th option.

Oakland (565) - Heyward-Bey 41rec 606yards 5tds 80 targets 12.7% target

Tampa Bay (558) - No one to really compare. Their top two were targetted 20%+ (Jackson/Williams) and are of course better than Walter. Closes to Walter % was Martin the RB who almost had better numbers than Walter from that position which is a bit sad.

Green Bay (552) - They all out produced Walter (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) but we'll take the guy with the closes percentage in Nelson - 49 rec 745yards 7tds 73 targets 13.1 target%

St. Louis (551) TE Kendricks 42 rec 519 yards 4td's 11.5% (Top 3 receivers all better than Walter but w/ target % from 14.5 - 18.1)

NYG (536) WR Hixon 39 rec 567 yards 2tds 10.9% (again 4th option as top two receivers and TE out-produced Walter easily)

Baltimore (531) WR Jones 30 rec 409 yards 1td 9.6% (5th option. Top receivers easily better than Walter, TE and Rice almost did better than Walter too)

Cincinati (528) WR Hawkins 51 rec 533 yards 4td's 14.8% (3rd options but everyone else too low target%. Since this one is 2% more than Walter wouldn't bother)

San Diego (527) TE Gates 49 rec. 538 yards 7tds 14.8% (3rd option. Next closes is RB Ronnie Brown)

Cleveland (517) TE Watson 49 rec. 501 yards 3tds 14.5% (3rd option as receivers...once again...higher. RB Richardson closes)

Kevin Walter - 41 rec 518 yards 2tds 12.3% target percentage

Just looking at this it is almost seemingly like we are running three TE sets out there because Walter simply does not contribute as he use to. And no, this isn't just system base because under Kubiak we got more from receivers in the past including Walter in '07 and '08. In '06 our 2nd option was a receiver as well in Moulds. But this is 2013 and what can Walter contribute now?

And for the ones saying 'fanbase' this is not just the fans. Folks outside the organization say it as well. Heck, our owner said it. We need more from this position. We saw this in the playoffs and it should be apparent. Heck I took random mock drafts just for the feel how others think we should go and the breakdown was WR 5, ILB 4, Safety 2, TE 1, DT 1. But let's even look at our receiving playoff numbers:

Walter was 4th in receptions, last in yards, 2nd lowest avg. per reception (only Foster was lower by .3), and the lowest 1st down percentage. Yes, Posey did better than Walter on his few catches and less targets. It helped he can actually get down the field.

Defense simply bogged down, increased their presence in the box and began to stifle our offense. We can always go into the system with more of the same and hope it works. Or maybe we can evolve the offense by adding a playmaker at a spot most teams get more contribution for and take the offense to another level. Walter isn't faster now than he was in '08 so chances are we aren't getting that guy again. You don't get faster as you age.

And we can try to disregard stats if we wish but GM, scouts, etc. do not. PFF for example is utilized by a handful of actual NFL clubs. Two have admitted as such in the Giants and Bears. It is already illustrated Walter is not the top ten blocking WR that many seem to perceive he is. Receiving wise? He is ranked #72 among 105 receivers that got at least 25% of the snaps.

Simply put. There is no stat out there to illustrate Walter is a strong #2 receiver in this league. Nada. There are more numbers pointing to the complete opposite. Is he a bad receiver? Of course not. But he is not a #2 and this offense needs more weapons because Schaub will be the quarterback whether we like it or not (unless someone just comes in and goes lights out) and Kubiak will still call the plays. Something has to change and those two pieces aren't going to.

Excellent points. I like looking at stats. And the intent of my posts have not been about a KW lovefest. I'm simply pointing out that the two teams in the Super Bowl did not have #2 and #3 stats that were significantly different than what the Texans #2 and #3 guys did.

It comes back to the point that I originally commented on: does this team need two 90+ receivers to be successful?

KW is 10 years in and a 40-50 reception a season kind of guy. There is a place for him on this team. I just think there are people caught up in the "#2" next to his name. And I don't think you have to go find a 90+ reception guy to be on the other side of AJ in order for this team to be successful in the passing game. I don't think that is how this offense is designed. There seems to be a fixation on "stud". Keeping KW (or at least his production) and adding a 60-70 reception guy seems like a better fit for this offense. IMHO, of course.

76Texan
02-01-2013, 01:34 PM
Walter didn't lose snaps.
Before the bye week he was in between 64-70% of the time.
After the bye week, he was normally in between 74-86% of the time.

There were a couple of exceptions (week 15, when the Texans had a comfortable 23-10 lead over the Colts, and the last regular game of the season, when Kubiak probably wanted to give him a little rest.)

His snap counts picked right back up in the play-offs.

It was Jean and Martin who lost snaps to Posey.

76Texan
02-01-2013, 01:52 PM
Advanced NFL Stats has a couple of measures (WPA/g) and (EPA/p).

Among all receivers, Walter ranked 49th in Win Probability Added per game, which signifies a middle of the road second receiver.

However, he ranked 28th in Expected Point Added per play, which puts him in the category of the #1 receiver.

And these stats don't even measure blocking, which has always been Walter's forte.

These are the stats that matter; those that help put points on the board, and to win games.

thunderkyss
02-01-2013, 02:01 PM
Advanced NFL Stats has a couple of measures (WPA/g) and (EPA/p).

Among all receivers, Walter ranked 49th in Win Probability Added per game, which signifies a middle of the road second receiver.

However, he ranked 28th in Expected Point Added per play, which puts him in the category of the #1 receiver.


:spit:


How deep did you have to go to find these "stats" ??

76Texan
02-01-2013, 02:16 PM
:spit:


How deep did you have to go to find these "stats" ??

Not deep at all.
No matter what, I had stated several times (from the time I first joined the old TT board) that I have loved stats from a younger age. I kept stats with stacks and stacks of newspapers in highschool and by going to the library before the age of the PC.

At any rate, Walter isn't even the third option on this team.
He's been the fourth option since 2010. Foster is third with 239 targets to Walter's 219.

That's just the way the Texans run their offense.

In fact, when Jacoby was here, he had more targets than Walter in 2010 and 2012 (3 and 4 more respectively.) So if you go strictly by numbers, Walter was the fifth option in those two years.

thunderkyss
02-01-2013, 02:40 PM
At any rate, Walter isn't even the third option on this team.
He's been the fourth option since 2010. Foster is third with 239 targets to Walter's 219.

That's just the way the Texans run their offense.

In fact, when Jacoby was here, he had more targets than Walter in 2010 and 2012 (3 and 4 more respectively.) So if you go strictly by numbers, Walter was the fifth option in those two years.

& you don't see a problem with that?

I don't believe, "That's just the way the Texans run their offense" I think that's the way we "have" to run our offense, until we get a better option at #2 WR.

There is no #1 target, #2 target. Schaub comes to the line, look at the defense & decides then who his #1 option is going to be. Most of the times it's supposed to be Andre, sometimes it's supposed to be Owen, or Arian, but if they don't get the defensive look that they want, it changes & there are rules for how he goes through his progression at that time.

I'm betting if we had a true #2 WR, That position would be his #1 option more often than it is now, because he would expect that WR to get open against more defenses.

If your #2 WR is so far down the list that he's the 5th option, that 4 players get more targets in the passing game.... something is wrong.

wolf123
02-01-2013, 03:47 PM
Anyone who doesn't see the need to upgrade at #2 WR is either Walter's wife or mother....:whip:

sandman
02-01-2013, 04:24 PM
Anyone who doesn't see the need to upgrade at #2 WR is either Walter's wife or mother....:whip:

The argument is not about whether we need a better #2. It's about the concept of what a #2 on this team, in this system, should look like.

There was a span for three years where Walter was a legit #2, averaging 60 receptions, 5 TD's and 775 yards a season. The last three seasons, he's looked like a #3 posession receiver and yet nobody has been able to take his reps/targets away.

You can blame Schaub, Kubiak or all of the WR's who couldn't step up. Your choice.

76Texan
02-01-2013, 04:52 PM
& you don't see a problem with that?

I don't believe, "That's just the way the Texans run their offense" I think that's the way we "have" to run our offense, until we get a better option at #2 WR.

There is no #1 target, #2 target. Schaub comes to the line, look at the defense & decides then who his #1 option is going to be. Most of the times it's supposed to be Andre, sometimes it's supposed to be Owen, or Arian, but if they don't get the defensive look that they want, it changes & there are rules for how he goes through his progression at that time.

I'm betting if we had a true #2 WR, That position would be his #1 option more often than it is now, because he would expect that WR to get open against more defenses.

If your #2 WR is so far down the list that he's the 5th option, that 4 players get more targets in the passing game.... something is wrong.

But it is.
Before Jacoby, the Texans had Andre Davis; this year, they tried to replace this deep threat with Jean and Posey.

Walter normally is targeted deep on some 24.5 % of the passes thrown his way, AJ some 26%.

AD (34%), Jones (31%), Jean, and Posey are the deep threats.
(Jean and Posey combined for 11 of 26 deep targets - 4 of 14 for Posey and 7 of 12 for Jean.)

This year, due to the inexperience of Jean and Posey, Walter was targeted deep more often (32.4%) with Schaub missing some due to pressure (and a few due to inaccuracy - whether just poor throws or normal difficulty that goes along with a deeper throw.)

leebigeztx
02-02-2013, 01:21 AM
This should help:)

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/article/media_slots/photos/000/700/720/Texans_original.jpg?1359467565


I was talking to a buddy today actually about this. He doesn't want a young wr because of the break in time,but I responded with simple numbers. Owen daniels had more targets than torrey smith and josh gordon, yet those guys produced more yards by far. I mean, if you take torrey smith the last 2 yrs, he's averaging 100 targets,50 recs, 800 yds and 8tds. Josh gordon had 96 tagets,50 catches and 800 yds playing with a 0 opposite of him and a rookie qb. I don't see why the texans couldn't draft a wr to play opposite andre who couldn't get 16-18 ypc with 50 recs and 800 yds or so. This isn't new, but maybe schaub needs to stop checking down to daniels and start pressing the ball to guys who can actually do more than catch and fall down.

Corrosion
02-02-2013, 01:39 AM
I was talking to a buddy today actually about this. He doesn't want a young wr because of the break in time,but I responded with simple numbers. Owen daniels had more targets than torrey smith and josh gordon, yet those guys produced more yards by far. I mean, if you take torrey smith the last 2 yrs, he's averaging 100 targets,50 recs, 800 yds and 8tds. Josh gordon had 96 tagets,50 catches and 800 yds playing with a 0 opposite of him and a rookie qb. I don't see why the texans couldn't draft a wr to play opposite andre who couldn't get 16-18 ypc with 50 recs and 800 yds or so. This isn't new, but maybe schaub needs to stop checking down to daniels and start pressing the ball to guys who can actually do more than catch and fall down.

Schaub simply cant make those throws into tight windows .... he lacks the zip to fit them in. That's why we see so many checkdowns ..... I'd rather he check them down that turn the ball over ...

76Texan
02-02-2013, 09:48 AM
There are things that don't show up on the stats sheet.
Gordon, for example, had quite a few long catches where the secondary simply bombed (similar to how Demps allowed a couple of plays.)

In the first half of the Dolphins game alone, Walter could have had 2 TDs.
On the first one, Schaub had a guy in his grill and threw the ball away.
On the second one, he drew a defensive PI to give the Texans first and goal at the 2, after which Foster scored on a TD run.

But no, people don't need to watch the game; all they have to do is to pull up some fantasy football numbers.

I have the screenshots and will either post them or up a link to photobucket sometimes today.

thunderkyss
02-02-2013, 09:48 AM
I was talking to a buddy today actually about this. He doesn't want a young wr because of the break in time,but I responded with simple numbers. Owen daniels had more targets than torrey smith and josh gordon, yet those guys produced more yards by far. I mean, if you take torrey smith the last 2 yrs, he's averaging 100 targets,50 recs, 800 yds and 8tds. Josh gordon had 96 tagets,50 catches and 800 yds playing with a 0 opposite of him and a rookie qb. I don't see why the texans couldn't draft a wr to play opposite andre who couldn't get 16-18 ypc with 50 recs and 800 yds or so.

With a true first round talent (whether we get him in the second or whatever) I would think it would be possible. But, with wins being such a premium, I doubt Kubiak will have the foresight to look to the future & get the youngun on the field early. If we're lucky & we can find a guy who works like Martin, maybe he can earn early playing time, then it's up to him to do better with that opportunity than LeStar, Martin, & Posey has.

But if we find ourselves too close to .500, we won't see any new faces that aren't necessary due to injury. Andre, Walter, OD, & Graham are going to have to find a way to win with Schaub.

This isn't new, but maybe schaub needs to stop checking down to daniels and start pressing the ball to guys who can actually do more than catch and fall down.

Schaub simply cant make those throws into tight windows .... he lacks the zip to fit them in. That's why we see so many checkdowns ..... I'd rather he check them down that turn the ball over ...

Schaub's got some limitations. Refusal to throw it deep isn't one of them. We've consistently been among the more explosive teams in the league for at least the last 5 years.

And now his arm "simply" isn't strong enough to make throws he's regularly made over the last 6 years.... uh-huh..

Maybe some of you are afraid to be caught on the wrong side of another QB thing, like David Carr. Maybe some of you are trying so hard to convince yourselves that Schaub is as bad as Carr to give you some sliver of hope that we'll replace him. I don't know what it is but as a long time critic of Matt Schaub I know what his issues are & what they aren't, & I've seen what he's been able to do in spite of those limitations.

As a longtime NFL fan, who respects both of your NFL opinions, I fear that you've been hypnotized by all that is RG3, or Kaepernick, or Wilson. I want one too, but I'm not willing to give up on a good NFL QB for what has failed to generate any long-term success in the NFL. The new Vick, that's all I'm seeing so far.

Maybe, one of them will be the next McNabb, McNair or Cunningham...... maybe. But more time than not, they end up as the next Vick, or the next Young.

I worry most about Russell Wilson, his situation reminds me too much of Shuan Kings Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

76Texan
02-02-2013, 09:58 AM
Walter at the top of the screen; AJ in the slot.
Due to play action fake, the LBs stepped up.
The middle safety had to cut off AJ, leaving Walter wide open in the middle;
too bad, Schaub had to throw the ball away due to pressure:


http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m48s149_zps4fc13b9d.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m49s164_zps9f8fb15f.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m50s178_zpsd180f611.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m52s191_zpse731d512.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m53s205_zpsa52ed54b.jpg

76Texan
02-02-2013, 10:00 AM
http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m55s221_zps4ba63e8a.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m56s236_zps6915223a.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m58s251_zpsf5402747.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h51m59s9_zps5c873a1d.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-07h52m00s20_zpsd93cc7f7.jpg

76Texan
02-02-2013, 10:02 AM
One All-22 View

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/w1_zps8b71bd1a.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/w2_zpse5bededa.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/w3_zpsab164040.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/111/w4_zps45d9f83a.jpg

76Texan
02-02-2013, 10:05 AM
The PI; Walter is at the bottom of the screen.
He put on a double move and beat the receiver to the corner.

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h20m37s10_zps04fa31ca.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h20m47s106_zps7d3c9909.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h20m50s156_zps936dd4e3.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h20m53s187_zps07d0b0a8.jpg

76Texan
02-02-2013, 10:07 AM
http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h20m59s240_zps70b7748d.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m02s18_zps16d232fc.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m06s47_zpse6bf04eb.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m08s81_zps58427b43.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m12s112_zpsee94d2b9.jpg

76Texan
02-02-2013, 10:08 AM
http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m15s142_zps8becd134.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m20s179_zps8d444922.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m23s226_zps84692e3a.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m33s53_zpse97e15d6.jpg

thunderkyss
02-02-2013, 10:19 AM
http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m06s47_zpse6bf04eb.jpg

http://i1217.photobucket.com/albums/dd384/76Texan/Walter/Dolphins%20wk%201/222/vlcsnap-2013-02-02-08h21m12s112_zpsee94d2b9.jpg

If Walter beat his man to the corner, why is that ball so poorly underthrown? We've seen Schaub throw the ball farther than that many times, with all that green in front of Walter, why not put it in front of him with a little air, let him go get it?

76Texan
02-02-2013, 10:37 AM
If Walter beat his man to the corner, why is that ball so poorly underthrown? We've seen Schaub throw the ball farther than that many times, with all that green in front of Walter, why not put it in front of him with a little air, let him go get it?

Well, you want a back shoulder fade, you got one; what are you complaining about, LOL.

Yah, that ball should have been thrown to the outside for Walter, but Schaub threw it at the back of the CB. Either it was a poor throw or Schaub was going for the PI all the way. My guess is that it was a poor throw. It was late, too. Walter had to slow down to wait for it. :fingergun:

The LOS was the 27 yard line; it wasn't that deep of a throw.

deucetx
02-02-2013, 12:06 PM
Walter didn't lose snaps.
Before the bye week he was in between 64-70% of the time.
After the bye week, he was normally in between 74-86% of the time.

There were a couple of exceptions (week 15, when the Texans had a comfortable 23-10 lead over the Colts, and the last regular game of the season, when Kubiak probably wanted to give him a little rest.)

His snap counts picked right back up in the play-offs.

It was Jean and Martin who lost snaps to Posey.

His playcount did pick up in the playoffs as Kubiak has been known to prefer experience as it is in such a position so no doubt he would for the playoffs. Well, until we were down to the Patriots and we needed to actually pass and someone to get open without playaction. But saying Walter didn't lose snaps during the end of the year? Incorrect.

After the bye Walter had usual snap count up to week 13. A span of five games he averaged 64.2 plays. After that? The next four games his playcount went down and he averaged 42.25. Last I checked a -22 differential is a drop in snaps.

And while the screenshots are nice it is mainly one game and not play after play. His issue is performing in such a manner consistently. Not to mention the missed opportunities you try to show...every receiver has them including those who already have better production than Walter.

Having someone capable of actually getting separation on a consistent basis in any[B] situation. That means not needing just scheme and playaction because some times the run game will be halted and we will need to open it up, i.e. the Patriots game. Well....unless you don't wish to beat the top tier teams.

And yes, stats don't illustrate the full picture all the time. That is why I alluded to PFF which does not rely merely on stats. It was formatted for that specific purpose. To evaluate play after play and get a better understanding than just the numbers and it is why others like GM's and scouts turn to it as well.

At any rate, Walter isn't even the third option on this team.
He's been the fourth option since 2010. Foster is third with 239 targets to Walter's 219.

That's just the way the Texans run their offense.

In fact, when Jacoby was here, he had more targets than Walter in 2010 and 2012 (3 and 4 more respectively.) So if you go strictly by numbers, Walter was the fifth option in those two years.

Umm...that is part of the problem. Your #2 should [B]never be that far down as an option. That is a hindrance to an offense. Plus...you are a bit incorrect again.

This past season target % of the passes was:

Dre 29.6%
O.D. 18.6%
Walter 12.3%
Foster 10.5%

So Walter was the third option last year. And again this is not how the system is. Any coach will have his system go along with the personnel at his disposal unless he is one horrible coach.

2006 - #2 option was WR Eric Moulds by 28 target more than OD
2007 - #1 target (w/Dre injured WR Kevin Walter with 106. #2 was OD and then Dre
2008 - It went Dre (170), O.D. (101) and Walter (95) A 6 point differential and the last season Walter was very contributing to pass game
2009 - It went Dre (170), Walter (70) and O.D. (57 - injured year)
2010 - It went Dre (138), Foster (84) and Walter (80)
2011 - It went O.D. (84), Foster (71), Jacoby (64) and Walter (59)

What this illustrates is one, you are wrong about him being a 5th option. Not sure where you even got that one. Two, this system isn't circled in concrete about getting the ball to just Dre then TE's or RB's. It's about getting the ball to the playmakers. Walter was one in '07-'08 so he saw the ball more. O.D. then became more than Walter, Foster and as much as we moan about Jacoby he had more playmaking abilities than our current Walter as well. This system is the same by Shanny and is part of the west coast which is about getting the ball to playmakers hence why we could use one.

There's a reason why Jacoby and Walter combined had so many targets. You want to get the ball to those who can make plays in a short-medium passing game. Walter was that but now, he is not. A decent third or fourth receiver maybe (but not at his current contract) but a #2? Hardly.

76Texan
02-02-2013, 12:19 PM
Deuce, I'm on my IPhone, so I can't elaborate.

On the snap counts, don't go by the actual number of plays, go by the percentage of the time he was in on offense. Check it and you will see that the numbers that I gave are correct.

76Texan
02-02-2013, 12:55 PM
On the pass target numbers, I used KFFL target chart, and combined the two years 2010-2011.

Even with several games missing, AJ, OD, and Foster had more targets.
Jacoby also had more targets, about 6 or 7 (including the two play-off games.)

In 2012, I also count the play-off games; Foster and Walter tied for third at 75 each (somehow I missed it by a little.)
However, Foster was also out for a bit due to his heart condition, saying that Walter was a close 4th option isn't wrong. In fact, since I combined the 3 years together, Foster definitely had more targets than Walter.

If Jacoby was still here, he would probably have more targets too.

76Texan
02-02-2013, 01:18 PM
As far as system goes, yes, the HC and the offensive coordinator game plan around the weapons they have.

In the Broncos days, they still had a number 1; then the number 1 was replaced when he got too old; McCaffrey became the number 2.
Their TE was still very valuable but was also at the end of his career.

The Broncos didn't even had a decent third receiver, so the pass distribution was to the #1, #2, TEs, then the backs (because they didn't have good backs that can catch the balls out of the backfield.

76Texan
02-02-2013, 01:26 PM
Here, Kubiak used AJ, Moulds, OD, Lundy, then the young Walter in 06.
The addition of both Moulds and Walter tell us that they wanted a third receiver.

The following year, we added Andre Davis as the speed guy, and started working in Dreessen a little bit as the second TE.
With AJ missing a ton of game and Davis being the new guy, they worked the ball to Walter more; that's really normal, wouldn't you say?

thunderkyss
02-02-2013, 01:41 PM
As far as system goes, yes, the HC and the offensive coordinator game plan around the weapons they have.


But they're only guessing at what the defense is going to do. They can't make decisions like that until they get to the Line. That's got to be Schaub's decision when he gets to the line. Then it's going to change again, once the ball is snapped.

The play comes in, it's a two man route designed to get the safety to bite on the crosser, opening the deep route. This becomse #1 on your progression.

But you come to the line & they're in Qtrs. So now you've got to be thinking the crossing route will be open. This becomes #1 on your progression.

You hike the ball & the safeties stay flat opening the deep route again. They take away your #1, you go on to #2.

I'm not an offensive coordinator, but the targets would be determined by routes, not positions. If I think my TE gets down the field & separation better than my #2 WR, then he'll be the one running that crossing route. I'll split him out wide more often than other teams do, because I know I'm talented limited at the WR position.

My TEs & my RBs are better receiving threats than my #2 WR.

I can't understand why you don't see that as a problem.

76Texan
02-02-2013, 05:07 PM
But they're only guessing at what the defense is going to do. They can't make decisions like that until they get to the Line. That's got to be Schaub's decision when he gets to the line. Then it's going to change again, once the ball is snapped.

The play comes in, it's a two man route designed to get the safety to bite on the crosser, opening the deep route. This becomse #1 on your progression.

But you come to the line & they're in Qtrs. So now you've got to be thinking the crossing route will be open. This becomes #1 on your progression.

You hike the ball & the safeties stay flat opening the deep route again. They take away your #1, you go on to #2.

I'm not an offensive coordinator, but the targets would be determined by routes, not positions. If I think my TE gets down the field & separation better than my #2 WR, then he'll be the one running that crossing route. I'll split him out wide more often than other teams do, because I know I'm talented limited at the WR position.

My TEs & my RBs are better receiving threats than my #2 WR.

I can't understand why you don't see that as a problem.
Well, to really understand what's going on, we need to look at each pass pattern and see how the defense set up on each of those plays.

Now, I haven't done much of it this year, but I did plenty last year, and the years before.

You're talking about a guy who had watched each of the games from 07 to 11 in the upward of a hundred hours each. What do think I spent all that time for?
:choke:

thunderkyss
02-02-2013, 06:40 PM
Well, to really understand what's going on, we need to look at each pass pattern and see how the defense set up on each of those plays.

Now, I haven't done much of it this year, but I did plenty last year, and the years before.

You're talking about a guy who had watched each of the games from 07 to 11 in the upward of a hundred hours each. What do think I spent all that time for?
:choke:

I know you've watched a lot of tape I know you've broken a bunch of them down, studied play-books, and dissected routes & coverages, which is why I know you already know that what I implied is correct.

Corrosion
02-02-2013, 08:44 PM
Schaub's got some limitations. Refusal to throw it deep isn't one of them. We've consistently been among the more explosive teams in the league for at least the last 5 years.

And now his arm "simply" isn't strong enough to make throws he's regularly made over the last 6 years.... uh-huh..



I think you have to look at how they made those big plays - They get Schaub out of the pocket and allow him to put a lot of air under the ball allowing the reciever to run under (adjust to) the ball .... These arent throws that require a lot of accuracy or zip on them with a flat trajectory. Those are the throws Schaub cant make and hasnt made or been asked to make.

76Texan
02-03-2013, 12:06 AM
I know you've watched a lot of tape I know you've broken a bunch of them down, studied play-books, and dissected routes & coverages, which is why I know you already know that what I implied is correct.

Yes and No.
Walter is not to be confused with a very good number 2 like Julio Jones seems to be on the way to become (if not already), but Walter is no cup cake either.

Yes, it's true that we have a pretty good TE in OD and a very good back out of the backfield in Foster; that was why they got the big money.

But OD isn't as good in blocking as a TE should be while Walter has been among the top at his position in blocking.
The play action often benefits the TEs more than it does Walter.
At times he and/or AJ would take away the safety (or safeties) for the TEs or the RB. How often do you see these guys being double-teamed?

I was wanting to watch a little more of Walter so I pulled up another game.
I chose the Packers game because it was a loss and also because Walter didn't have good numbers.

And guess what? More of the same with him being open but not getting the ball for a number of reasons.

Then there's that PI call again, taking another TD from him.
About the same distance in yardage (some 26 yards).
I believe it was Sam Shield who committed the penalty.
This one set up another TD by Foster.

steelbtexan
02-03-2013, 12:13 AM
Yes and No.
Walter is not to be confused with a very good number 2 like Julio Jones seems to be on the way to become (if not already), but Walter is no cup cake either.

Yes, it's true that we have a pretty good TE in OD and a very good back out of the backfield in Foster; that was why they got the big money.

But OD isn't as good in blocking as a TE should be while Walter has been among the top at his position in blocking.
The play action often benefits the TEs more than it does Walter.
At times he and/or AJ would take away the safety (or safeties) for the TEs or the RB. How often do you see these guys being double-teamed?

I was wanting to watch a little more of Walter so I pulled up another game.
I chose the Packers game because it was a loss and also because Walter didn't have good numbers.

And guess what? More of the same with him being open but not getting the ball for a number of reasons.

Then there's that PI call again, taking another TD from him.
About the same distance in yardage (some 26 yards).
I believe it was Sam Shield who committed the penalty.
This one set up another TD by Foster.

While all of your post may be correct. IDK

Facts are defenses dont fear another WR on the roster not named AJ.

It's time to fix the offense and drafting a QB/WR/RT would be good places to start.

76Texan
02-03-2013, 12:55 AM
While all of your post may be correct. IDK

Facts are defenses dont fear another WR on the roster not named AJ.

It's time to fix the offense and drafting a QB/WR/RT would be good places to start.

Oh yeah?

The only other long pass play in the Packers game was an underneath crossing route by O.D.
And guess what? Walter was the one who took the double-team with him.
The single deep safety stayed deep instead of jumping down on the crosser.

However, I'm all for drafting another WR; I was on board since last year, you know that.

steelbtexan
02-03-2013, 01:10 AM
Oh yeah?

The only other long pass play in the Packers game was an underneath crossing route by O.D.
And guess what? Walter was the one who took the double-team with him.
The single deep safety stayed deep instead of jumping down on the crosser.

However, I'm all for drafting another WR; I was on board since last year, you know that.

Yep,

If a Wr like Williams,Hunter,Rodgers is there at 27 that would be my pick.

A vertical threat would open up things for AJ,Foster,OD etc....

Rodgers is a deep threat even though I expect him to run in the 4.5 range. What do you think it will take to solve the Texans red zone woes? A big TE like Lucas Reed sure would be helpful.

badboy
02-21-2013, 11:16 PM
How about being able to run the ball in for a TD within 10 yards?

Norg
02-23-2013, 11:30 PM
well at least we are throwing to the right guy andre needs his touches i say keep on throwing to #80 till they can stop it

EllisUnit
02-25-2013, 07:30 AM
Yep,

If a Wr like Williams,Hunter,Rodgers is there at 27 that would be my pick.

A vertical threat would open up things for AJ,Foster,OD etc....

Rodgers is a deep threat even though I expect him to run in the 4.5 range. What do you think it will take to solve the Texans red zone woes? A big TE like Lucas Reed sure would be helpful.

I blame the Redzone woes on Schaub and the coaching staff. How often do you see plays designed for AJ in the Redzone, fade routes, quick slants. AJ is a beast and is way bigger than most CBs who cover him, how often do you see us throw it up and let AJ go and get it ???

thunderkyss
02-25-2013, 06:05 PM
This should help:)

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/article/media_slots/photos/000/700/720/Texans_original.jpg?1359467565

Very interesting. What's it all mean?

badboy
02-25-2013, 06:12 PM
Very interesting. What's it all mean?

Basically it means our new guys Martin, Jean and Posey sucked.

Texan_Bill
02-25-2013, 09:09 PM
well at least we are throwing to the right guy andre needs his touches i say keep on throwing to #80 till they can stop it

For as awesome as AJ is, his TD % isn't all that great for a prolific receiver as he is. Sure, he's made some fantastic, highlight receptions for TD's, but they dont target him nearly enough.

That said, I get it. Teams target #80, but the play calling needs to be much better at or inside the 20 as to make him a target again. That means there has got to be other viable options. The Texans haven't really been impressive in the supposed "Red Zone" for the last two years.

sandman
02-26-2013, 09:51 AM
For as awesome as AJ is, his TD % isn't all that great for a prolific receiver as he is. Sure, he's made some fantastic, highlight receptions for TD's, but they dont target him nearly enough.

Calvin Johnson averages 9 TD's a year for his career, and this year with his monster season only had 5 TD's. For being considered the best receiver in the league, those numbers aren't very impressive.

Here is an interesting stat: there were 6 players with 100+ receptions this year, and all but one had 6 TD's or less.

There were 9 players with double digit receiving TD's, and seven of them were in the 80-100 reception range.

I honestly don't know what to take from that, other than maybe the 100+ guys were more possession receivers? Only Megatron and AJ averaged over 13 YPC in this group, while over half of the 80-100 reception group averaged over that number.

Texans_Chick
02-26-2013, 05:42 PM
In 2011, the Texans had the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. It was one of the things that allowed Kubiak to keep his job despite having a dreadful defense. The theory was, get a new DC, fix the D.

So 2nd most efficient is probably the best you are going to see from Kubiak/Schaub pairing, yes?

During that year, the WRs all had a catch rate of 60% or higher.

Given that the Texans have a mix of routes, and use a lot of short passes as run substitutes, and don't take as many downfield shots as lets say the Ravens do, I'm thinking that you want a WR that is capable of at least a 60% catch rate. Relative to some other teams in the NFL, 60% is pretty high, but the Texans have high standards for what is supposed to be caught.

So when you are looking at WR/TE draft targets, you cannot ignore the hands.

A thought.

badboy
02-27-2013, 06:01 PM
Hands + average per catch. Imagine what AJ's stats could be if fewer of the dink and dunks Schaub forces on him.

infantrycak
02-27-2013, 06:27 PM
Hands + average per catch. Imagine what AJ's stats could be if fewer of the dink and dunks Schaub forces on him.

OK this slag Schaub thing at every opportunity (not you in particular) is out of control. Schaub is not a dink and dunk QB. Alex Smith is a dink and dunk QB. Schaub's time in Houston has him with a ypa which exceeds Peyton, Brady and Brees. There are flaws in his game but people are just making stuff up now.

Edit - add Joe Flacco to that list. Then add in Schaub beats all of them in YPC as well. FYI - he led the league in YPC in 2011. Quite the dink and dunker.

badboy
02-27-2013, 06:34 PM
OK this slag Schaub thing at every opportunity (not you in particular) is out of control. Schaub is not a dink and dunk QB. Alex Smith is a dink and dunk QB. Schaub's time in Houston has him with a ypa which exceeds Peyton, Brady and Brees. There are flaws in his game but people are just making stuff up now.Schaub does throw some very short (dink and dunk imo)passes especially to AJ from behind the LOS or within 4-5 yards. This happens several times a game; not saying that is all Matt throws or he would not have the ypa.

thunderkyss
02-27-2013, 06:42 PM
Schaub does throw some very short (dink and dunk imo)passes especially to AJ from behind the LOS or within 4-5 yards. This happens several times a game; not saying that is all Matt throws or he would not have the ypa.

I think every QB does this, especially when they have a badass at WR who can take advantage of such opportunities.

Surreal McCoy
02-27-2013, 09:29 PM
OK this slag Schaub thing at every opportunity (not you in particular) is out of control. Schaub is not a dink and dunk QB. Alex Smith is a dink and dunk QB. Schaub's time in Houston has him with a ypa which exceeds Peyton, Brady and Brees. There are flaws in his game but people are just making stuff up now.

What do you mean by 'now'? This has been going on for quite some time. Just like the 'not allowed to audible' silliness :wadepalm:

Lucky
02-28-2013, 12:15 AM
In 2011, the Texans had the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders.

So when you are looking at WR/TE draft targets, you cannot ignore the hands.
I'm pretty sure you meant 2010.

The ability to catch the football certainly has something to do with catch rate. But, I would suggest that the ability to create separation and/or find holes in coverage is also a major element in the catch rate equation. It's a lot easier for a QB to complete a pass when the DB is not glued to the receiver. Creating seperation is part speed, part strength, part savvy. That's why despite the attention Andre gets, his catch rate is high. That the other Texans receivers are lacking in one or more of these attributes, could indicate why their catch rate is lacking.

I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to herding cats.

Vinny
02-28-2013, 02:55 AM
I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to heading cats.
I've always said that stats are useful for baseball but I don't tend to get fixated on raw numbers for football stuff and your example is one of many reasons why. The Texans throwing short of the first down marker is maddening, but looks good in statistical breakdowns like this.

infantrycak
02-28-2013, 07:51 AM
I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to heading cats.

I've always said that stats are useful for baseball but I don't tend to get fixated on raw numbers for football stuff and your example is one of many reasons why. The Texans throwing short of the first down marker is maddening, but looks good in statistical breakdowns like this.

Yes football is not baseball and you have to be careful in using them but they are not useless either. It's all well and good to come up with a scenario for an 8 yd reception on 3rd and 10 but we are talking about a body of work here with thousands of passes against multiple teams and coaches. Schaub hasn't magically been allowed to have 8 yd passes his entire career. .

thunderkyss
02-28-2013, 09:29 AM
I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to herding cats.

I don't agree with this kind of thinking. To extrapolate, it's like giving the ball to the running back 3 yards behind the LOS on 3rd & 1. We all expect that running back to pick up the 4 yards & get credit for one.

The situation is a little different in that you have your OL facilitating that one yard that is needed. But if you have Andre 1 on 1 with a 5'10" 185lb DB, don't you expect him to take that 8 yard catch & make 2 yards?

In my mind you can't say it was a failure on the QB because KDub didn't pick up 2 yards when the safety was playing 3 yards behind the LOS. Or if James Casey is run down before picking up the two yards, or if Jacoby Jones ran 8 yards laterally instead of sticking his head down & picking up 2 yards.

We've seen too many times on this team that a 3 yard slant can & often does pick up a 5 Yard First down.

deucetx
02-28-2013, 10:03 AM
I can completely understand why folks feel we are a dink and dunk offense when passing the ball. Personally, I don't care what Schaub did in the past as I care about the Schaub of today after the injuries, after age and after more wear on the arm, body and mind. To me, what he did three years or ago or what not is irrelevant to present.

Breaking down the percentage of the direction of the passes among quarterbacks that had at least 800 snaps I found the information a bit telling. Only quarterback with less snaps I threw on her was Colin Kaepernick because I first began this among playoff quarterbacks then decided to go for broke. So this is of 27 quarterbacks who had 800+ snaps except for Kap. So no Titans who bounced from Timmy to Locky or the Cardinal trio of misfits, Blahbert or Henne, etc.

Matt Schaub was 26th out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes 20+ yards. Only Christian Ponder went this direction a less percent of his passes.

Matt Schaub was 23rd out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes 10-19 yards.

Matt Schaub was 2nd out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes 0-9 yards (Romo was first)

Matt Schaub was 11th out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes behind the line of scrimmage

So basically what this illustrates is that yes...Schaub did tend to dink and dunk it last year. A rather large percentage of his pass were from behind the line of scrimmage to the up to 9 yards. Course these are just numbers and some also goes on the receiver to get the YAC as Walter was horrible at this. At the same time it displays a tendency and why many say we simply don't stretch a defense enough at times.

Anyway, take from it what you will. Just found it interesting the more I put all this crap together lol.

badboy
02-28-2013, 10:05 AM
I think every QB does this, especially when they have a badass at WR who can take advantage of such opportunities.
Probably just me but I don't want my star WR getting crunched for a 4 yard gain or less.

badboy
02-28-2013, 10:13 AM
Hands + average per catch. Imagine what AJ's stats could be if fewer of the dink and dunks Schaub forces on him.
I want to clarify that my post did not say we have a dink and dunk offense. I did say and do believe that he uses AJ too often for short passes with no blocking. A screen I am ok with and maybe 1-2 passes to AJ that start beyond the LOS because he can bull his way for a few yards often. We should be using AJ down the field and some over the middle passes due to his strength, speed and great hands.

Vinny
02-28-2013, 10:30 AM
Yes football is not baseball and you have to be careful in using them but they are not useless either. It's all well and good to come up with a scenario for an 8 yd reception on 3rd and 10 but we are talking about a body of work here with thousands of passes against multiple teams and coaches. Schaub hasn't magically been allowed to have 8 yd passes his entire career. .

True, when I discovered that a third of Geno Smith's passes were behind the LOS last year I turned my head like a dog.

Schaub throwing underneath is fine (conservative is better than stupid) in tight games but when we need to score late behind by two or more scores (see the 10 min, 4th quarter drive in the Patriot game)...you just have to start getting the ball upfield or you are not going to win important games like that. The Patriots were dictating where the ball was thrown and Schaub/Kubiak accommodated that.

thunderkyss
02-28-2013, 10:45 AM
Course these are just numbers and some also goes on the receiver to get the YAC as Walter was horrible at this. At the same time it displays a tendency and why many say we simply don't stretch a defense enough at times.

Anyway, take from it what you will. Just found it interesting the more I put all this crap together lol.

To be truly useful, for the purpose you stated, we need to see how these numbers compare to past seasons. We've never been a vertical offense, this is a WCO. At the same time, those runs, those short passes would set us up for the big play down the field.

There's no doubt in my mind, that 2012's offense was limited compared to our offense in the past. What I don't agree with is that Matt Schaub & Gary Kubiak were the limiting factors. Loosing Jacoby hurt us more than some want to admit.

KDub isn't going to get YAC & though he may get down the field every now & again, defenses aren't drawn away from the LOS because of it. OD & James Casey may get you some YAC, but they're not going to get the defenses to back up & spread out.

I am not saying we didn't win the Super Bowl because we didn't have Jacoby Jones. I don't think he would have had as many catches as Walter had we cut Walter & kept Jones. But he would have had as many if not more yards & he'd have had a higher ypc. There would have been more space for everyone else on the field. I never thought Jacoby was better than Walter, just different & for this offense, I prefer to have Jacoby.

deucetx
02-28-2013, 11:34 AM
To be truly useful, for the purpose you stated, we need to see how these numbers compare to past seasons. We've never been a vertical offense, this is a WCO. At the same time, those runs, those short passes would set us up for the big play down the field.

There's no doubt in my mind, that 2012's offense was limited compared to our offense in the past. What I don't agree with is that Matt Schaub & Gary Kubiak were the limiting factors. Loosing Jacoby hurt us more than some want to admit.

KDub isn't going to get YAC & though he may get down the field every now & again, defenses aren't drawn away from the LOS because of it. OD & James Casey may get you some YAC, but they're not going to get the defenses to back up & spread out.

I am not saying we didn't win the Super Bowl because we didn't have Jacoby Jones. I don't think he would have had as many catches as Walter had we cut Walter & kept Jones. But he would have had as many if not more yards & he'd have had a higher ypc. There would have been more space for everyone else on the field. I never thought Jacoby was better than Walter, just different & for this offense, I prefer to have Jacoby.

I agree about Jacoby. For all his faults he still opened the offense more than KDub did and made more things possible. They weren't too bad together for what they brought. Just those mental lapses...ugh.

As for the WCO, I think a good coach needs to learn to evolve his offense instead of working in strict definitions. Not saying Kubiak is a bad one as this past season may bring new adjustments to his direction and I think he has done so before in the past. As he said, the Patriots game taught them a lot.

But other teams run the west coast as well yet we were one of three that were under 10% in passes 20+ yards. As some are arguing in NFL circles these days you have to attack more downfield because that's just today's NFL thanks to the crappy rules (sorry...cornerback in me talking that hates these PI calls lol). Here are a pair of good quotes I saw in an article ofr USA Today:

"I'm not sure what the West Coast offense is anymore," he says. "Everybody adjusts their system to what they do, or what they want to do, or they adjust it to their personnel." - Mike Shannahan

"I believe there is and always will be a need for elements of a West Coast offense," Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley says. "When I think West Coast, I think progression reads. It depends on the talent you have on offense. That dictates what you do as much as defense." - Todd Haley

So are we limited due to system or personnel is a good question in my opinion. While we are a WCO system I think we all see on deep throws where Schaub underthrows or that he tends to put too much air under his passes. Still I think he could be better in the 10-19 range with the personnel necessary and we don't need 70 yard bombs (though they are nice!)

Breakdowns for past years when Schaub played since it is spotty with injury issues:

20+ 10-19 0-9 Minus
2012 9.34% 20.20% 56.71% 13.75%
2011 14.29% 18.92% 53.28% 13.51%
2010 9.18% 22.75% 55.26% 12.81%
2009 9.87% 19.92% 55.03% 15.18%
2008 9.65% 23.39% 52.34% 14.62%

2011 we went deep more. Is it a coincidence it is also the season Jacoby played the most? Not saying 'Give us back Jacoby!' but saying (as Thunder pointed out) a change in personnel brought a difference to the offense and adjustments. It's one reason I really want a WR that can be a playmaker.

Now if the suspicions some folks have about Schaub and that injury playing a role is true it may mean what we see is what we get. Hopefully it isn't though.

76Texan
02-28-2013, 11:55 AM
Interesting numbers, Deuce.

The numbers for 2011 include Yates'?

76Texan
02-28-2013, 12:11 PM
Interestingly, when I used the Play Finder feature at Profootball Reference .com , it showed that the Patriots QBs completed 2 fewer passes of 20 yards or more than the Texans' from 2007-2012.

321 to 323

76Texan
02-28-2013, 12:45 PM
Interestingly, when I used the Play Finder feature at Profootball Reference .com , it showed that the Patriots QBs completed 2 fewer passes of 20 yards or more than the Texans' from 2007-2012.

321 to 323

Well, well, well. The numbers get more interesting.
There are very few teams in the league that are better than the Texans.
Granted, we don't know how many of these passes are shorter passes that the receivers/TEs/RBs turned into longer gains; but if the results are good, what's wrong with that?

The only four teams with a better number are:
Dallas 341, GB 337, SD 335, and NO 353.

deucetx
02-28-2013, 12:47 PM
Interesting numbers, Deuce.

The numbers for 2011 include Yates'?

Naw just Schaubby. Yates below.

20+ (12.87%) 10-19 (25.15%) 0-9 (48.54%) Minus (13.45%)

Interestingly, when I used the Play Finder feature at Profootball Reference .com , it showed that the Patriots QBs completed 2 fewer passes of 20 yards or more than the Texans' from 2007-2012.

321 to 323

Yeah Brady really doesn't seem to heave it down the field as much as many act (or I should say the media acts). He did one season with Moss and was 10th out of 27 on the guys I broke down for 2012. Course with those tight ends and Welker in the slot I guess he doesn't have toss it down there much and it gives those outside guys easier matchups.

Flacco on the other hand...bombs away. Can't say that guy doesn't trust his arm strength, heh.

76Texan
02-28-2013, 12:51 PM
Here's the rest of the list (and we know some of the "big" arms are on it):

Az 290, Atl 260, Balt 253, Buf 235, Car 265
Chi 259, Cin 243, Clv 228, Den 300, Det 304
Ind 297, Jac 254, KC 229, Mia 251, Minn 235
NYG 306, NYJ 240, Pitts 317, SF 275, Stl 254
Rams 232, TB 265, Tenn 233, Wash 281