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tru80texan
01-21-2013, 08:58 PM
http://www.stateofthetexans.com/?p=9964

Here is a little breakdown on Rick Smith's drafting tendencies by conference & state as well as how his drafts have panned out over the years.

Personally I'm not too impressed considering there is only 1 player left on the team out of 14 drafted in 2007 & 2008. Guess we can chalk that up to growing pains, but there are a few other areas of concern, IMO, such as there have only been 9 starters produced from the last 4 drafts & 2(possibly 3) could be lost after this offseason. That a spotty track record IMO. Thoughts...

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 09:06 PM
Here's an added bonus on what players the Texans reportedly spoke to today at the Senior Bowl practice.

http://www.stateofthetexans.com/?p=9976

I watched this practice. Kinda impressed w/ Pugh at T. He's catching flack for having short arms, so he's expected to be a RT, but he looked decent doing pass rush drills against the likes of Okafor.

Poyer, CB, looked good & impressive. Especially in man to man. Very physical & made plays on the ball.

The NC State QB...ummmm...not too impressed w/ him. He looked rough at times, including badly overthrowing a wide open wr for an int. We already have that issue here.

Didnt think this needed it's own thread, but it's decent info IMO.

Lucky
01-21-2013, 09:17 PM
My thoughts are that Smith gets either too much credit or too much blame for the draft. Yes he is in charge of the process. But it is well known that Duane Brown was Alex Gibbs' pick. JJ Watt was Wade Phillips' pick. Smith takes a lot of input from the scouts and the coaches. It's more of a consensus than Smith dictating.

Having said that, the Texans draft record has been spotty since Smith's arrival. Good and bad. The good is magnified by Arian Foster's UDFA signing in 2009. With 11 picks in the upcoming draft, this would be a good time for Smith and Co. to be more good than bad.

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 09:29 PM
My thoughts are that Smith gets either too much credit or too much blame for the draft. Yes he is in charge of the process. But it is well known that Duane Brown was Alex Gibbs' pick. JJ Watt was Wade Phillips' pick. Smith takes a lot of input from the scouts and the coaches. It's more of a consensus than Smith dictating.

Having said that, the Texans draft record has been spotty since Smith's arrival. Good and bad. The good is magnified by Arian Foster's UDFA signing in 2009. With 11 picks in the upcoming draft, this would be a good time for Smith and Co. to be more good than bad.

I think the spotty drafts & the salary cap nightmare is why Smith is always a hot topic. If you aren't drafting players worthy of being starters & you aren't known for building the team thru free agency...then how do you create such a mess w/ the salary cap? Some of the poor decisions made on free agents have haunted the Texans for quite a while. If I recall correctly, the Texans were still dealing w/ dead money against the salary cap in 2012 for Jacque Reeves of all people. When you consider the fact that on the defense alone that 6 of the 11 starters where still under their rookie contracts it makes you wonder where all the money is going & how badly was it handled.

Hopefully you are right & they hit a few jackpots in this upcoming draft to get the trend turned around.

wolf123
01-21-2013, 09:54 PM
I think Smith has done a good job. The 07 draft was terrible but our talent level is one of the tops in the league.:hurrah:

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 10:01 PM
I think Smith has done a good job. The 07 draft was terrible but our talent level is one of the tops in the league.:hurrah:

Hmmmmm...did you read the link?? Just wondering....:foottap: lol!

To each there own.

AJ-80
01-21-2013, 10:11 PM
I have never been a fan of the NC state quarterback (Glennon?)

From the games I have watched, I'm not even sure why he should be draft material.

Playoffs
01-21-2013, 10:13 PM
...But it is well known that Duane Brown was Alex Gibbs' pick.
Duane was the last of 6 first round graded LT available at our #26. There were 8 OTs taken in the first and none in the second.

Pretty sure we liked Clady, Williams, & Albert too. So I think lady luck was on our side.

(And speaking of Alex Gibbs, I'd sure like to pull him out of retirement for any type of consultant role he's willing to do.)

dtran04
01-21-2013, 10:25 PM
Just compare draft history in the AFC South.

It feels like the Jags/Titans haven't had a single significant draft choice in forever, hence why they are struggling.

Colts tanked for Luck so I guess they were smart for that.

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 10:32 PM
Just compare draft history in the AFC South.

It feels like the Jags/Titans haven't had a single significant draft choice in forever, hence why they are struggling.

Colts tanked for Luck so I guess they were smart for that.

On that note...dont you think that is why the Titans & jags have recently replaced their GM's. Drafting a punter in the 3rd round kinda speaks for itself. Colts may have tanked, but they seem to have not only got a starting QB, but also a playmaking wr & returner all in 1, & a starting RB a well. Seems that change was a smart one IMO & not necessarily the start over dooms day that many predict happens when you replace a GM or HC.

76Texan
01-21-2013, 10:34 PM
http://www.stateofthetexans.com/?p=9964

Here is a little breakdown on Rick Smith's drafting tendencies by conference & state as well as how his drafts have panned out over the years.

Personally I'm not too impressed considering there is only 1 player left on the team out of 14 drafted in 2007 & 2008. Guess we can chalk that up to growing pains, but there are a few other areas of concern, IMO, such as there have only been 9 starters produced from the last 4 drafts & 2(possibly 3) could be lost after this offseason. That a spotty track record IMO. Thoughts...

With the movement of players nowadays, it's not at all surprising.

We've talked about this before.

A better measure might be what happened to them?

Of those 14 picks, 1 remained and 9 found employments elsewhere.
That needs to be compared with other teams to see how well a team draft.

But that's really not all there's to it.

76Texan
01-21-2013, 10:40 PM
With the movement of players nowadays, it's not at all surprising.

We've talked about this before.

A better measure might be what happened to them?

Of those 14 picks, 1 remained and 9 found employments elsewhere.
That needs to be compared with other teams to see how well a team draft.

But that's really not all there's to it.

Next you have to consider their draft spots.
Then you have to take into account trades, for example, the Texans traded two second rounders (one in each of those two years) for Schaub.

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 10:44 PM
With the movement of players nowadays, it's not at all surprising.

We've talked about this before.

A better measure might be what happened to them?

Of those 14 picks, 1 remained and 9 found employments elsewhere.
That needs to be compared with other teams to see how well a team draft.

But that's really not all there's to it.

Hmmmmm...that's an interesting thought. Here's the list of players from 2007 & 2008. Please tell me what players outside of Brown & Jacoby Jones, yeah the guy we ran out of town, have turned into quality NFL players contributing on another team. I don't see anything but busts, journeymen, or players who are unemployed but still hanging on to the dream w/ an occasional tryout. I think you might be giving credit where credit isn't do.

2007 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/10 (from Atlanta) Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
3/73 Jacoby Jones Wide receiver Lane
4/123 (from New Orleans) Fred Bennett Cornerback South Carolina
5/144 Brandon Harrison Safety Stanford
5/163 (from New Orleans) Brandon Frye Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
6/183 Kasey Studdard Offensive guard Texas
7/218 Zac Diles Linebacker Kansas State

2008 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/26 (from Baltimore) Duane Brown Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
3/79 Antwaun Molden Cornerback Eastern Kentucky
3/89 (from Baltimore) Steve Slaton Running back West Virginia
4/118 Xavier Adibi Linebacker Virginia Tech
5/151 Frank Okam Defensive tackle Texas
6/173 (from Baltimore) Dominique Barber Safety Minnesota
7/223 Alex Brink Quarterback Washington State

AJ-80
01-21-2013, 10:50 PM
Hmmmmm...that's an interesting thought. Here's the list of players from 2007 & 2008. Please tell me what players outside of Brown & Jacoby Jones, yeah the guy we ran out of town, have turned into quality NFL players contributing on another team. I don't see anything but busts, journeymen, or players who are unemployed but still hanging on to the dream w/ an occasional tryout. I think you might be giving credit where credit isn't do.

2007 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/10 (from Atlanta) Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
3/73 Jacoby Jones Wide receiver Lane
4/123 (from New Orleans) Fred Bennett Cornerback South Carolina
5/144 Brandon Harrison Safety Stanford
5/163 (from New Orleans) Brandon Frye Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
6/183 Kasey Studdard Offensive guard Texas
7/218 Zac Diles Linebacker Kansas State

2008 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/26 (from Baltimore) Duane Brown Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
3/79 Antwaun Molden Cornerback Eastern Kentucky
3/89 (from Baltimore) Steve Slaton Running back West Virginia
4/118 Xavier Adibi Linebacker Virginia Tech
5/151 Frank Okam Defensive tackle Texas
6/173 (from Baltimore) Dominique Barber Safety Minnesota
7/223 Alex Brink Quarterback Washington State

Okoye turned out to be quite a disappointment, didn't he....We passed up some prime talent.

Pick number 11: Patrick Willis :kubepalm:

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 10:55 PM
Okoye turned out to be quite a disappointment, didn't he....We passed up some prime talent.

Pick number 11: Patrick Willis :kubepalm:

Thats a HUGE understatement. Sometimes I wish the Texans would just make the obvious pick as opposed to the sneaky surprising pick that takes a few years to develop...if they develop at all. Molden & Fred Bennett where also head scratchers that didn't quite pan out. IMO rounds 1-3 should be players that develop into quality players. Missing in those rounds is normally not a good thing.

eriadoc
01-21-2013, 10:58 PM
I'd be OK if they don't draft any more Brandon Harris* guys.

b0ng
01-21-2013, 11:02 PM
With the movement of players nowadays, it's not at all surprising.

We've talked about this before.

A better measure might be what happened to them?

Of those 14 picks, 1 remained and 9 found employments elsewhere.
That needs to be compared with other teams to see how well a team draft.

But that's really not all there's to it.

To add to this, when you start off your article with the hand waving the selection of two All-Pro's, you can tell it will be heavily biased. I also don't really agree with the notion that the Texans are in a dire situation salary cap wise. Some cuts will have to be made but I doubt they bring nothing in free agency.

I'm of the opinion Smith is doing a good job bringing in talent, and retaining talent on the roster. I can't imagine being upset at any recent big name signing in free agency, but I could be overlooking something.

76Texan
01-21-2013, 11:04 PM
Hmmmmm...that's an interesting thought. Here's the list of players from 2007 & 2008. Please tell me what players outside of Brown & Jacoby Jones, yeah the guy we ran out of town, have turned into quality NFL players contributing on another team. I don't see anything but busts, journeymen, or players who are unemployed but still hanging on to the dream w/ an occasional tryout. I think you might be giving credit where credit isn't do.

2007 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/10 (from Atlanta) Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
3/73 Jacoby Jones Wide receiver Lane
4/123 (from New Orleans) Fred Bennett Cornerback South Carolina
5/144 Brandon Harrison Safety Stanford
5/163 (from New Orleans) Brandon Frye Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
6/183 Kasey Studdard Offensive guard Texas
7/218 Zac Diles Linebacker Kansas State

2008 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/26 (from Baltimore) Duane Brown Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
3/79 Antwaun Molden Cornerback Eastern Kentucky
3/89 (from Baltimore) Steve Slaton Running back West Virginia
4/118 Xavier Adibi Linebacker Virginia Tech
5/151 Frank Okam Defensive tackle Texas
6/173 (from Baltimore) Dominique Barber Safety Minnesota
7/223 Alex Brink Quarterback Washington State

Normally, the rule of thumb is that you expect a second rounder to become a starter (keeping in mind that there's no guarantee; even a high first round draft pick had become a bust many times before); a guy like Okoye, was also a starter for another team. He doesn't qualify as a bust.

The rate of going for a third rounder goes down to a maybe starter, but likely a solid rotational player or contributor.

A fourth rounder is a contributor if you draft decently and so on.

Jacoby, Slaton, and Adibi qualified to be a little better than average, at least enough to compensate for Molden.

In the meantime, before we go on, we also need to take into account the signing of UDFA, Brisiel and Butler. These guys may very well replace some of your own draft picks, and they did.

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 11:13 PM
Normally, the rule of thumb is that you expect a second rounder to become a starter (keeping in mind that there's no guarantee; even a high first round draft pick had become a bust many times before); a guy like Okoye, was also a starter for another team. He doesn't qualify as a bust.

The rate of going for a third rounder goes down to a maybe starter, but likely a solid rotational player or contributor.

A fourth rounder is a contributor if you draft decently and so on.

Jacoby, Slaton, and Adibi qualified to be a little better than average, at least enough to compensate for Molden.

In the meantime, before we go on, we also need to take into account the signing of UDFA, Brisiel and Butler. These guys may very well replace some of your own draft picks, and they did.

I think you are being a bit generous in your assessment of Slaton & Adibi. Better then average...they are both unemployed last I checked & it seems Slaton was just a 1 hit wonder fluke. Adibi never started & carried the " injury prone" label like no other. That hardly says "better than average" IMO.

Okoye qualifies as a bust, IMO, because he was a Top 10 pick who has been cut by 2 teams(1 team cut him twice) if I recall correctly & never really produced like a top 10 pick. If I recall correctly, he too is unemployed. Once again, I believe you are being a bit generous in your assessments of some players.

srrono
01-21-2013, 11:40 PM
I am afraid that if the Texans did change the Coach and GM we could go straight to the bottom again. I mean really how many guys out there are 100% locks to be good at their job. Plain and simple an Elite QB takes you a long way in this league, but If you do not have an Elite QB then the team has to be very good at every other position.

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 11:45 PM
To add to this, when you start off your article with the hand waving the selection of two All-Pro's, you can tell it will be heavily biased. I also don't really agree with the notion that the Texans are in a dire situation salary cap wise. Some cuts will have to be made but I doubt they bring nothing in free agency.

I'm of the opinion Smith is doing a good job bringing in talent, and retaining talent on the roster. I can't imagine being upset at any recent big name signing in free agency, but I could be overlooking something.

Outside of Joseph, Manning, & Smith( although some may say they overpaid for Smith) most of their other FA signings have not panned out. Reeves, Ahman Green, & the trade for Philip Buchanon are just a few of the questionable moves. As I said earlier, those could be growing pains, but the premature resigning of Schaub, Walter, & Jacoby have been their questionable moves of late. Walter was forced to take a pay cut in the 2nd year of his latest contract or he could've easily been released similar to jacoby who requested his release 1 yr after he was signed to a new contract. Schaubs play of late have many questioning whether or not the Texans should've waited before resigning him.

You are right the Texans do have a lot of young talent, but it remains to be seen if he can retain them as many of them are playing under their rookie contracts & are not an issue just yet. The fun begins starting this season as Quin & Barwin are due up & it seems 1 of them will possibly be lost. Time will tell & let's see if Smith can earn his money.

76Texan
01-21-2013, 11:46 PM
I think you are being a bit generous in your assessment of Slaton & Adibi. Better then average...they are both unemployed last I checked & it seems Slaton was just a 1 hit wonder fluke. Adibi never started & carried the " injury prone" label like no other. That hardly says "better than average" IMO.

Okoye qualifies as a bust, IMO, because he was a Top 10 pick who has been cut by 2 teams(1 team cut him twice) if I recall correctly & never really produced like a top 10 pick. If I recall correctly, he too is unemployed. Once again, I believe you are being a bit generous in your assessments of some players.

Whatever your assessments are, it's fine with me.

We've discussed about this before on this board.

An example I brought up was the Patriots, a team that a lot of people here seem to think as a model.

The only two guys remaining from those 2 years are Jerod Mayo, and a nobody named Matt Slater.

Does Matt Slater qualify to be anything to you?

tru80texan
01-21-2013, 11:54 PM
I am afraid that if the Texans did change the Coach and GM we could go straight to the bottom again. I mean really how many guys out there are 100% locks to be good at their job. Plain and simple an Elite QB takes you a long way in this league, but If you do not have an Elite QB then the team has to be very good at every other position.

I think that is myth. With the recent success of the 49ers, Colts, Redskins, & even the Seahawks, teams can be successful quickly. These were teams thought to be in complete rebuilding mode & are playoff teams a year or 2 later. The Texans seem to have a lot of the pieces in place, but can't get over the hump. A new GM or HC would be a fool to change out all of the players here. I believe it would simply be a philosophy change in the FO & how it is coached, not a complete overhaul by any means.

76Texan
01-21-2013, 11:54 PM
The rest of their guys (the Pats) are either out of the league or barely plays (Meriweather, a first round pick).

The Texans had one still very active on another team (Jacoby) and one who had seen quite a bit of time with the Bears (Okoye).

Overall, both team still have the same number of draftees remained from those 2 years still on some team this year (5), but the guys from the Texans had been more active (playing).

And this is not even counting the two 2nd round picks traded for Schaub.

powda
01-22-2013, 12:11 AM
He attacks needs with 1 incumbent, 1 mid tier free agent, and 1 mid round draft pick. Thats all you need to know.

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 12:19 AM
The rest of their guys (the Pats) are either out of the league or barely plays (Meriweather, a first round pick).

The Texans had one still very active on another team (Jacoby) and one who had seen quite a bit of time with the Bears (Okoye).

Overall, both team still have the same number of draftees remained from those 2 years still on some team this year (5), but the guys from the Texans had been more active (playing).

And this is not even counting the two 2nd round picks traded for Schaub.

I think you are comparing apples in oranges in hopes that you can prove the Texans are similar to the Pats drafting performance, but that is completely false IMO. The Texans had a pick in every round except the 2nd round in both years. That cannot be said for the Pats in 2007. They didn't have a 2nd or a 3rd & had numerous picks in the 6th & 7th rounds. That's hardly equal footing to make a comparison as we all know the talent falls in the later rounds. Despite having a bunch of 6th & 7th round picks they still managed to equal the same amount active or productive players that the Texans did w/ varying round picks. That does not necessarily help your case. IMO it hurts it, but that could just be me. Let me give you a bunch of late round picks & I get the normal assortment & let's guess who will be the odds on favorite in producing quality players.

Okoye only produced 1 year, 2011, for the Bears & was let go. He was then cut by the Bucs & Bears this season. Thats a 1 hit wonder very similar to Slaton. Hardly worth noting, but if it works for you...so be it. I politely agree to disagree.


*2008
1.10 LB *Jerod Mayo *Tennessee *from NO
2.31 DB *Terrence Wheatley *Colorado **
3.15 LB *Shawn Crable *Michigan *from NO
3.31 QB *Kevin O'Connell *San Diego State **
4.30 DB *Jonathan Wilhite *Auburn **
5.18 WR *Matt Slater *UCLA *from TB
6.31 LB *Bo Ruud *Nebraska **
*2007
1.24 DB *Brandon Meriweather *Miami *from SEA
4.28 DL *Kareem Brown *Miami **
5.34 OL *Clint Oldenburg *Colorado State *compensatory pick
6.06 LB *Justin Rogers *Southern Methodist *from ARI
6.28 DB *Mike Richardson *Notre Dame **
6.34 RB *Justise Hairston *Central Connecticut *compensatory pick
6.35 OL *Corey Hilliard *Oklahoma State *compensatory pick
7.01 LB *Oscar Lua *Southern California *from OAK
7.37 OL *Mike Elgin *Iowa *compensatory pick

amazing80
01-22-2013, 06:25 AM
Thats some good info, but without comparing to other gms its useless

b0ng
01-22-2013, 10:06 AM
Outside of Joseph, Manning, & Smith( although some may say they overpaid for Smith) most of their other FA signings have not panned out. Reeves, Ahman Green, & the trade for Philip Buchanon are just a few of the questionable moves. As I said earlier, those could be growing pains, but the premature resigning of Schaub, Walter, & Jacoby have been their questionable moves of late. Walter was forced to take a pay cut in the 2nd year of his latest contract or he could've easily been released similar to jacoby who requested his release 1 yr after he was signed to a new contract. Schaubs play of late have many questioning whether or not the Texans should've waited before resigning him.

You are right the Texans do have a lot of young talent, but it remains to be seen if he can retain them as many of them are playing under their rookie contracts & are not an issue just yet. The fun begins starting this season as Quin & Barwin are due up & it seems 1 of them will possibly be lost. Time will tell & let's see if Smith can earn his money.

Buchanon was not Rick Smith, and you'll have to cite Jacoby requesting his release rather than just being outright cut because that is not how I remember it going down. And as much as you want to hand-wave away Watt and Brown's selections, you'll ignore Mike Sherman convincing people that Green was worth a contract. So which is it that Rick Smith is responsible for, just the moves you don't like?

76Texan
01-22-2013, 10:33 AM
I think you are comparing apples in oranges in hopes that you can prove the Texans are similar to the Pats drafting performance, but that is completely false IMO. The Texans had a pick in every round except the 2nd round in both years. That cannot be said for the Pats in 2007. They didn't have a 2nd or a 3rd & had numerous picks in the 6th & 7th rounds. That's hardly equal footing to make a comparison as we all know the talent falls in the later rounds. Despite having a bunch of 6th & 7th round picks they still managed to equal the same amount active or productive players that the Texans did w/ varying round picks. That does not necessarily help your case. IMO it hurts it, but that could just be me. Let me give you a bunch of late round picks & I get the normal assortment & let's guess who will be the odds on favorite in producing quality players.

Okoye only produced 1 year, 2011, for the Bears & was let go. He was then cut by the Bucs & Bears this season. Thats a 1 hit wonder very similar to Slaton. Hardly worth noting, but if it works for you...so be it. I politely agree to disagree.


*2008
1.10 LB *Jerod Mayo *Tennessee *from NO
2.31 DB *Terrence Wheatley *Colorado **
3.15 LB *Shawn Crable *Michigan *from NO
3.31 QB *Kevin O'Connell *San Diego State **
4.30 DB *Jonathan Wilhite *Auburn **
5.18 WR *Matt Slater *UCLA *from TB
6.31 LB *Bo Ruud *Nebraska **
*2007
1.24 DB *Brandon Meriweather *Miami *from SEA
4.28 DL *Kareem Brown *Miami **
5.34 OL *Clint Oldenburg *Colorado State *compensatory pick
6.06 LB *Justin Rogers *Southern Methodist *from ARI
6.28 DB *Mike Richardson *Notre Dame **
6.34 RB *Justise Hairston *Central Connecticut *compensatory pick
6.35 OL *Corey Hilliard *Oklahoma State *compensatory pick
7.01 LB *Oscar Lua *Southern California *from OAK
7.37 OL *Mike Elgin *Iowa *compensatory pick

Let's count the picks.
Both teams had one first and one fourth - same.
We had 3 thirds; they had 1 second and 2 thirds.

Should be their advantage, correct?

We had 1 more fifth, but they had a bunch more sixth and seventh.
Basically, their 3 sixth should trump our 1 fifth.

Should be another advantage to them, correct?

steelbtexan
01-22-2013, 11:15 AM
Hmmmmm...that's an interesting thought. Here's the list of players from 2007 & 2008. Please tell me what players outside of Brown & Jacoby Jones, yeah the guy we ran out of town, have turned into quality NFL players contributing on another team. I don't see anything but busts, journeymen, or players who are unemployed but still hanging on to the dream w/ an occasional tryout. I think you might be giving credit where credit isn't do.

2007 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/10 (from Atlanta) Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
3/73 Jacoby Jones Wide receiver Lane
4/123 (from New Orleans) Fred Bennett Cornerback South Carolina
5/144 Brandon Harrison Safety Stanford
5/163 (from New Orleans) Brandon Frye Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
6/183 Kasey Studdard Offensive guard Texas
7/218 Zac Diles Linebacker Kansas State

2008 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/26 (from Baltimore) Duane Brown Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
3/79 Antwaun Molden Cornerback Eastern Kentucky
3/89 (from Baltimore) Steve Slaton Running back West Virginia
4/118 Xavier Adibi Linebacker Virginia Tech
5/151 Frank Okam Defensive tackle Texas
6/173 (from Baltimore) Dominique Barber Safety Minnesota
7/223 Alex Brink Quarterback Washington State

A very sad list and condeming on the part of Rick and Gary.

For all of the supposed talent on this roster, there appear to be holes at WR/OT/OG/QB and LB/S/CB/NT on defense and the ST's are a mess.

Gary/Wade better do a good job of telling Rick who to pick in this yrs draft. Rick is nothing more than a figurehead. Although his staff does a pretty good job of picking up street FA's. I expect Sonny Harris to be a big contributor to next yrs team

steelbtexan
01-22-2013, 11:35 AM
I am afraid that if the Texans did change the Coach and GM we could go straight to the bottom again. I mean really how many guys out there are 100% locks to be good at their job. Plain and simple an Elite QB takes you a long way in this league, but If you do not have an Elite QB then the team has to be very good at every other position.

BoB is banking on his fanbase having that fear. Fact is there are plenty of teams that have rebuilt better and quicker than the Texans since Gary has been here.

The Texans run the risk of being the early 80's Pats, Warren Moons Oilers and Phillip Rivers Chargers. All good teams, but not good enough, it's like treading water. But it's all good if they become a 10-12 reuglar season team and a soft early exit playoff team as long as fans keep the turnsisles turning and the beer flowing at Reliant.

PS, this is not about firing Gary, I think he did a great coaching job this yr. Considering the obvious lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball. That needs to be fixed in this yrs draft/FA.

Agree with you about the QB.

Jules Winnfield
01-22-2013, 02:01 PM
he's been average at best.

scary he wanted to sign barwin to an extension much like schaub before seeing them play this season only to be saved by barwin's greed.

badboy
01-22-2013, 02:38 PM
http://www.stateofthetexans.com/?p=9964

Here is a little breakdown on Rick Smith's drafting tendencies by conference & state as well as how his drafts have panned out over the years.

Personally I'm not too impressed considering there is only 1 player left on the team out of 14 drafted in 2007 & 2008. Guess we can chalk that up to growing pains, but there are a few other areas of concern, IMO, such as there have only been 9 starters produced from the last 4 drafts & 2(possibly 3) could be lost after this offseason. That a spotty track record IMO. Thoughts...I'd like to know how players that were drafted under Smith but went on to play for other teams were considered? Trindon Holliday & Jacoby Jones come to mind. If players are still in NFL even if on another team indicates the pick may have been good. Another thing, SMith drafts not coaches them. Would be interesting to also point out the draftees who no longer are with Texans that left due to injuries such as Barber, Slaton, etc. That would also have major impact. Another would be how many 6th & 7th rounders were let go which have a very small percentage of making a team anyway. For every Derek Newton starting seventh, how many last more than one season, if that?

76Texan
01-22-2013, 03:31 PM
I'd like to know how players that were drafted under Smith but went on to play for other teams were considered? Trindon Holliday & Jacoby Jones come to mind. If players are still in NFL even if on another team indicates the pick may have been good. Another thing, SMith drafts not coaches them. Would be interesting to also point out the draftees who no longer are with Texans that left due to injuries such as Barber, Slaton, etc. That would also have major impact. Another would be how many 6th & 7th rounders were let go which have a very small percentage of making a team anyway. For every Derek Newton starting seventh, how many last more than one season, if that?

And you have to count the UDFAs in those years, too.

That would add Mike Brisiel, Rashad Butler, and Nading to the list.

Schaub may be the piņata around here, but the cost of two second rounders should also be included.

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 04:19 PM
Buchanon was not Rick Smith, and you'll have to cite Jacoby requesting his release rather than just being outright cut because that is not how I remember it going down. And as much as you want to hand-wave away Watt and Brown's selections, you'll ignore Mike Sherman convincing people that Green was worth a contract. So which is it that Rick Smith is responsible for, just the moves you don't like?

http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2012/05/texans-release-much-maligned-receiver-jacoby-jones/

Hopefully this will suffice concerning Jones. Says it in the 1st line, Jones' agent REQUESTED a release after a trade couldn't be worked. I stand corrected on Buchanon. I remember Kubiak was the one who released him so I lost track of my years & assumed Smith acquired him. Forgive me, we all make mistakes. I think you can relate considering your take on the jacoby release.

Just for the record I never took the Brown selection away from Smith. That was another poster. I do give the Watt selection to Wade because kubiak & Smith admitted Wade had helped immensely in narrowing down the list of players. They, kubiak & smith, gave Wade credit after the draft, not me. Smith gets credit for the good & bad moves. Problem is there seems to be more bad then there are good at this time. Just saying...

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 05:30 PM
And you have to count the UDFAs in those years, too.

That would add Mike Brisiel, Rashad Butler, and Nading to the list.

Schaub may be the piņata around here, but the cost of two second rounders should also be included.

Just for the record, Rashad Butler was not a UDFA for the Texans. He was a 3rd round selection for the Panthers in 06 & was cut by them in 07. That's when he was signed by the Texans.

As far as your draft pick round evaluations, we will have to agree to disagree. I'm not a quantity over quality type of guy & that's exactly what that is when you suggest 3 6th rounders equates to a 5th rounder. So we will leave it at that. We can just refer to the production level of the 2 teams & it kinda gives away which team is doing a slightly better job.

silentassassin
01-22-2013, 05:51 PM
Would have rather extend Barwin than Schaub ...

Any particular reason? (Besides the amount of vitriol Schaub has taken in recent weeks.)

I seem to remember you starting a thread criticizing the concept of using DEs at OLB, which is inherent within the scheme.

Note: Just a genuine question. Not trying to be confrontational.

76Texan
01-22-2013, 06:25 PM
Just for the record, Rashad Butler was not a UDFA for the Texans. He was a 3rd round selection for the Panthers in 06 & was cut by them in 07. That's when he was signed by the Texans.

As far as your draft pick round evaluations, we will have to agree to disagree. I'm not a quantity over quality type of guy & that's exactly what that is when you suggest 3 6th rounders equates to a 5th rounder. So we will leave it at that. We can just refer to the production level of the 2 teams & it kinda gives away which team is doing a slightly better job.

OK, so let's correct that Butler was a FA off the scrap heap.
Wasn't that a good find by the scouting department and Rick Smith?

Now concerning the 5th and 6th rounders, ProFootball Reference. Com
has a neat feature where you can query about all the drafts.

Of those two years, there are 28 sixth rounders still remain in the NFL in 2012.
There are 6 more fifth rounders (34 total).

3 sixth rounders definitely give you a better percentage of finding a contributor.
Based on those figures, 3 sixth rounders are actually better than 2 fifth rounders.

There was an article that we circulated around here a few years back.
It recorded the success percentage of players drafted in each round.

So yeah, it's not the first time we ever discussed this matter.

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 06:53 PM
OK, so let's correct that Butler was a FA off the scrap heap.
Wasn't that a good find by the scouting department and Rick Smith?

Now concerning the 5th and 6th rounders, ProFootball Reference. Com
has a neat feature where you can query about all the drafts.

Of those two years, there are 28 sixth rounders still remain in the NFL in 2012.
There are 6 more fifth rounders (34 total).

3 sixth rounders definitely give you a better percentage of finding a contributor.
Based on those figures, 3 sixth rounders are actually better than 2 fifth rounders.

There was an article that we circulated around here a few years back.
It recorded the success percentage of players drafted in each round.

So yeah, it's not the first time we ever discussed this matter.

Butler was initially a good find. Not so much the last few yrs. The "injury prone" label has been bestowed upon him & its highly unlikely he returns. For being a former 3rd rounder most would say he didn't live up to expectations similar to Caldwell, but at least he wasn't Smith's 3rd rounder & he was serviceable when Brown was suspended.

Once again, I will politely agree to disagree concerning your round selection evaluations. I'm sure its a neat little feature & all, but in the end it clearly shows more 5th rounders making it compared to 6th rounders. Which makes sense because as I stated earlier & as your little feature showed the talent level falls a bit as each round goes by & thus more 5th rounders are on rosters compared to 6th rounders. I'm not sure if that little tid bit of info helped your case much, but it was worth a try.

Just guessing, using my little feature of "common sense", that if a trade is being worked out between 2 GM's that an offer of 2 5th round picks vs an offer of 3 6th round picks...I'm pretty sure the 2 5th rounders would win out more times then not. Once again, it goes back to quality over quantity. The GM's that pick 6th round picks over 5th round picks is probably the ones that would also pick a punter in the 3rd round & we all know the eventual fate of types.

76Texan
01-22-2013, 07:06 PM
Butler was initially a good find. Not so much the last few yrs. The "injury prone" label has been bestowed upon him & its highly unlikely he returns. For being a former 3rd rounder most would say he didn't live up to expectations similar to Caldwell, but at least he wasn't Smith's 3rd rounder & he was serviceable when Brown was suspended.

Once again, I will politely agree to disagree concerning your round selection evaluations. I'm sure its a neat little feature & all, but in the end it clearly shows more 5th rounders making it compared to 6th rounders. Which makes sense because as I stated earlier & as your little feature showed the talent level falls a bit as each round goes by & thus more 5th rounders are on rosters compared to 6th rounders. I'm not sure if that little tid bit of info helped your case much, but it was worth a try.

Just guessing, using my little feature of "common sense", that if a trade is being worked out between 2 GM's that an offer of 2 5th round picks vs an offer of 3 6th round picks...I'm pretty sure the 2 5th rounders would win out more times then not. Once again, it goes back to quality over quantity. The GM's that pick 6th round picks over 5th round picks is probably the ones that would also pick a punter in the 3rd round & we all know the eventual fate of types.

You have the right to form your own opinion, all I'm stating is facts.
The study showed that the success rate between a 5th and a 6th are pretty close, close enough to at least equate 3 sixths with 2 fifths, let one 1.

Heck, Brady by himself (and he doesn't count extra) as a sixth is better than ... I don't know how many fifths.

Texan_Bill
01-22-2013, 07:10 PM
(And speaking of Alex Gibbs, I'd sure like to pull him out of retirement for any type of consultant role he's willing to do.)

Certainly QFT!!!

Texan_Bill
01-22-2013, 07:16 PM
Heck, Brady by himself (and he doesn't count extra) as a sixth is better than ... I don't know how many fifths.

Or 4ths, or 3rds, or 2nds, hell even firsts!! Hell, a sixth rounder, not even really a starter at Michigan (who was it that started at Michigan in front of him? :thinking:)

***************

Meh........ Drafting players is a crap shoot at best. Just like QB's, GM's are judged too harshly when there's a miss and congratulated too much when they draft, say a JJ Watt. It's just the nature of the beast.

EllisUnit
01-22-2013, 07:25 PM
Normally, the rule of thumb is that you expect a second rounder to become a starter (keeping in mind that there's no guarantee; even a high first round draft pick had become a bust many times before); a guy like Okoye, was also a starter for another team. He doesn't qualify as a bust.

The rate of going for a third rounder goes down to a maybe starter, but likely a solid rotational player or contributor.

A fourth rounder is a contributor if you draft decently and so on.

Jacoby, Slaton, and Adibi qualified to be a little better than average, at least enough to compensate for Molden.

In the meantime, before we go on, we also need to take into account the signing of UDFA, Brisiel and Butler. These guys may very well replace some of your own draft picks, and they did.

Zach diles was also starting this season, IMO we should not of let him go, i loved his play

76Texan
01-22-2013, 07:25 PM
A similar article can be found here.

http://www.thefootballeducator.com/mocking-the-nfl-draft-evaluation-process/

According to it (by their definition), the success rate of a fifth is 3.8%, while the success rate of a sixth is 2.5%.

3 sixths will accumulate to 7.5%
2 fifths will accumulate to 7.6%

3 sixths would definitely give you a higher success rate (7.5%) as compared to one fifth (3.8%).

76Texan
01-22-2013, 07:32 PM
And if you want quality, read this and weep.

This one listed the best 40 picks in the last 10 years.
Seven sixth rounders are on it as opposed to just a lone uno fifth.

http://www.mynfldraft.com/best-nfl-draft-picks/150

EllisUnit
01-22-2013, 07:37 PM
And if you want quality, read this and weep.

This one listed the best 40 picks in the last 10 years.
Seven sixth rounders are on it as opposed to just a lone uno fifth.

http://www.mynfldraft.com/best-nfl-draft-picks/150

When i dont see Andre Johnson on that list it makes me question its credibility.

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 07:53 PM
When i dont see Andre Johnson on that list it makes me question its credibility.

Thank you. Whatever criteria, which doesn't seem to be much, was used to compile that list was worthless. Hardly makes a good arguement for anything when you consider the names such Rudi Johnson & McGahee are on it while omitting many others, such as Andre, who deserve to be on it. It's obvious this list was based on nothing of substance & based on a persons opinion...which in the end means nothing. No Aaron Rodgers...really? I rest my case.

76Texan
01-22-2013, 07:58 PM
But what about the other article?

Here is another article, by CFN (a more credible source out there), that studied all draft picks between 2000 and 2010.

It was distributed in April 2012 (I think, the date is on there).

17.5% of fifth rounders became starter while 11.67% made it.

Here, 2 sixths are already better than 1 fifth.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1180349.html

Also, from the same article, an additional 16% (equal percentage for both rounds) went on and do something (ie., becoming a contributor).

This adds even more value to the sixth rounders.

infantrycak
01-22-2013, 08:24 PM
Thank you. Whatever criteria, which doesn't seem to be much, was used to compile that list was worthless. Hardly makes a good arguement for anything when you consider the names such Rudi Johnson & McGahee are on it while omitting many others, such as Andre, who deserve to be on it. It's obvious this list was based on nothing of substance & based on a persons opinion...which in the end means nothing. No Aaron Rodgers...really? I rest my case.

It was written in 2007-8 given that it goes back to the 1997 draft which explains Aaron Rodgers but still doesn't explain Andre, Ed Reed, Julius Peppers, Brees, LaDanian Tomlinson, etc.

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 08:25 PM
But what about the other article?

Here is another article, by CFN (a more credible source out there), that studied all draft picks between 2000 and 2010.

It was distributed in April 2012 (I think, the date is on there).

17.5% of fifth rounders became starter while 11.67% made it.

Here, 2 sixths are already better than 1 fifth.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1180349.html

Also, from the same article, an additional 16% (equal percentage for both rounds) went on and do something (ie., becoming a contributor).

This adds even more value to the sixth rounders.

Lol! I see you are a member of the fuzzy math organization. Here are the facts given in your material. Paragraph 9- talent level drops as each as each round passes. That is also displayed in the percentages of the players rated 1 thru 5. 5th rounders had a little over 50% get rated 1-5 while 6th rounders had right at or a little below 50% who were rated at 1-5. The odds are better that 5th rounders have the potential to contribute more then 6th rounders. Plain & simple. You can keep accumulating all the 6th rounders you want until the % finally is greater that you could possibly get 1 player that becomes a worthy starter, but all you are doing is playing the odds in hopes that the numbers fall in your favor. When its all said & done 5th rounders simply have slightly more potential. It's a crap shoot w/out a doubt but 1 that you will have better talent to pick from in the 5th then the 6th. Simple concept. Thin the pool out & so goes the potential...just as your link suggested.

Can we please move on now. This is not on the subject & its a bit worn out & tiresome. You haven't proven much of a case by any means thus I will continue to maintain my stance. Thanks for the endless effort, but its a no go.

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 08:29 PM
It was written in 2007-8 given that it goes back to the 1997 draft which explains Aaron Rodgers but still doesn't explain Andre, Ed Reed, Julius Peppers, Brees, etc.

Omits Drew Brees as well, who was a 2nd rounder. Yeah, this doesn't hold much water imo.

76Texan
01-22-2013, 08:34 PM
The fact that a 5th has more potential is a given, nobody ever claims otherwise.:swatter:

76Texan
01-22-2013, 08:38 PM
It was written in 2007-8 given that it goes back to the 1997 draft which explains Aaron Rodgers but still doesn't explain Andre, Ed Reed, Julius Peppers, Brees, LaDanian Tomlinson, etc.

It doesn't matter as I've said that we can scratch that one; the sample size is just too small. Still, it is worth noting for some of the sixth rounder that are on the list, which is the central of discussion.

76Texan
01-22-2013, 08:46 PM
Based on that study, when you draft a fifth rounder, there's a 17.5% chance that he becomes a starter and 16% chance that he becomes a contributor.

But now you have the opportunity to trade that 5th for 3 random 6th.
Each has a 11.67% chance to become a starter.
On top of that, you have a 48% chance that one becomes a comtributor.

You are almost guaranteed of one success.
Beat a single fifth rounder by a mile, don't you think?

tru80texan
01-22-2013, 09:04 PM
Based on that study, when you draft a fifth rounder, there's a 17.5% chance that he becomes a starter and 16% chance that he becomes a contributor.

But now you have the opportunity to trade that 5th for 3 random 6th.
Each has a 11.67% chance to become a starter.
On top of that, you have a 48% chance that one becomes a comtributor.

You are almost guaranteed of one success.
Beat a single fifth rounder by a mile, don't you think?

LOL! :choke: :runaway:

gafftop
01-22-2013, 09:12 PM
All i know is we have MS extended for more years before we even had too. No reason to extend early nobody was going to want him. No mobility, weak arm, poor history in crunch.
Get the big decisons right you are probably OK.
Screw up the big decisions all the little decisions may not matter.

powda
01-22-2013, 10:32 PM
If we're drafting based on percentages we're screwed. I dont see how the base line in your thinking works. You want to draft based on the success of other teams? You want to call someone a contributor for team x when he has no shot of getting on the field for team y? Target talent and skip the math. The only math in the conversation is cap consideration.

76Texan
01-23-2013, 06:07 AM
If we're drafting based on percentages we're screwed. I dont see how the base line in your thinking works. You want to draft based on the success of other teams? You want to call someone a contributor for team x when he has no shot of getting on the field for team y? Target talent and skip the math. The only math in the conversation is cap consideration.

But we're not talking about strategy here.
Obviously you still have to do your homework no matter where you draft.

But on average, I will trade my fifth for your three sixths because the talent levels are not that much difference there.

I've done some checkings myself.
You know I've been quite active on the draft forum for quite a few years now.

Here, I went back to 2000 through 2005 so far, and the data shows.
In 2005 for example the sixth rounders actually end up starting 100 more games than the fifth rounders in their combined careers.

ATXtexanfan
01-23-2013, 07:25 AM
Would have rather extend Barwin than Schaub ...

True true very true

gafftop
01-23-2013, 09:07 AM
Would have rather extend Barwin than Schaub ...

I hear you but why do we have to choose between dumb and dumber. I want moves that make sense and I say why didn't I think of that, not WTF.

gafftop
01-23-2013, 04:09 PM
Barwin is only a dumb move if he wants big money. We need to upgrade at LB true, but if he comes back for the right amount we could always use him as a fresh pass rusher off the bench.

Matt is a dumb move because he doesn't belong in the NFL, especially in Gary's system.

I agree with you but if we would have extended Barwin before the season started as the post implied we would have been overpaying.

I hope part of Barwin's problem was the additional 20 lbs added in offseason but I wouldn't pay based on that hope.

tru80texan
01-23-2013, 04:28 PM
I agree with you but if we would have extended Barwin before the season started as the post implied we would have been overpaying.

I hope part of Barwin's problem was the additional 20 lbs added in offseason but I wouldn't pay based on that hope.

If you don't mind me asking, where did you hear/ see that he added an additional 20lbs? I haven't seen that, but that would explain at least a slow down in production. 20lbs, I believe, would take some adjusting to. I see he was listed at or around 268lbs this season & his combine weight was listed at 256lbs. The extra 20 could take a toll, but I can't seem to find it.

It was a smart move not to re-sign him as he did decline. It was a smart move to make him earn the money. It's too bad that Rick Smith did not choose to apply this same practice when re-signing Schaub, Walter, & Jacoby.

gafftop
01-23-2013, 07:24 PM
If you don't mind me asking, where did you hear/ see that he added an additional 20lbs? I haven't seen that, but that would explain at least a slow down in production. 20lbs, I believe, would take some adjusting to. I see he was listed at or around 268lbs this season & his combine weight was listed at 256lbs. The extra 20 could take a toll, but I can't seem to find it.

It was a smart move not to re-sign him as he did decline. It was a smart move to make him earn the money. It's too bad that Rick Smith did not choose to apply this same practice when re-signing Schaub, Walter, & Jacoby.

I heard it on the radio but I did find this in forum

09-10-2012 #9
Bleed_Blu_Red
Veteran




Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 230
Rep Power: 1707 Re: Connor Barwin?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDEXAN
Has Barwin put on weight since last year ?

Ya he is 270,before he was 255 or 260 a lot of people say that's why he isn't the same he lost quickness and acceleration. it's just one game to me.

Texan_Bill
01-23-2013, 07:48 PM
WOW!!! Knee jerk much?????


Eff me, this is going to be a long offseason!!! :facepalm:

tru80texan
01-23-2013, 07:56 PM
I heard it on the radio but I did find this in forum

09-10-2012 #9
Bleed_Blu_Red
Veteran




Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 230
Rep Power: 1707 Re: Connor Barwin?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by IDEXAN
Has Barwin put on weight since last year ?

Ya he is 270,before he was 255 or 260 a lot of people say that's why he isn't the same he lost quickness and acceleration. it's just one game to me.

270lbs sounds about right. Like I said, I saw he was listed at 268lbs. I don't recall what he was listed at last season, but it looks like he gained at least 10-15lbs as opposed to 20lbs. Maybe it had an effect, but its hard to say. I think he just had a down year as far as sacks. Unfortunate for him it may have cost him some money in the process.