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View Full Version : Nate Silver. Remember him?


RandomVariable
01-11-2013, 11:36 AM
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4738221/nate-silver-predicts-patriots-seahawks-super-bowl

This is the guy who correctly predicted the Presidential Election and who has had success in predicting baseball games. He predicts the Pats will win their 4th Super Bowl.

Foxboro Steve
01-11-2013, 12:34 PM
Love this guy...Nate what's-his-name.

TheIronDuke
01-11-2013, 01:48 PM
Man, Nate Silver is a legend in knowing stuff. I think I'll just call Kubes and let him know that Nate Silver has predicted the Pats to win the Super Bowl so there's no reason to show up and play and risk injury to the players. It was fun whilst it lasted though, thanks for stopping by the board, good luck in New Orleans!

Then again, you won't need it because you've already been told by Nate Silver you're going to win the SB, so I retract that good luck and will have Goodell mail the Lombardi to Gillette. Great season and cograts to the 2013 Super Bowl Champs the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS!!!

TheIronDuke
01-11-2013, 01:54 PM
Also, why are you wasting time here when the game's already decided, might as well start trolling the Broncos now, no?

RandomVariable
01-11-2013, 02:02 PM
Man, Nate Silver is a legend in knowing stuff. I think I'll just call Kubes and let him know that Nate Silver has predicted the Pats to win the Super Bowl so there's no reason to show up and play and risk injury to the players. It was fun whilst it lasted though, thanks for stopping by the board, good luck in New Orleans!

Then again, you won't need it because you've already been told by Nate Silver you're going to win the SB, so I retract that good luck and will have Goodell mail the Lombardi to Gillette. Great season and cograts to the 2013 Super Bowl Champs the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS!!!

Unlike most (probably all) of you, I have a background in mathematics & statistics. So I respect what Nate Silver has been able to do. I also understand what he has done. With that, comes an understanding of the limitation of his prediction models. The models are dependent on the data inputs. Given that sports (more specifically predicting the outcome of sporting events) isn't a science, the quality of the data isn't as high due to the lack of ability to conduct controlled repeated experiments.

Does his prediction mean the Pats will 100% win the SB? No. Claiming otherwise would show a complete lack of knowledge of probability. But his prediction is more interesting and relevant than most TV NFL analysts who make blind predictions more or less.

RandomVariable
01-11-2013, 02:03 PM
Also, why are you wasting time here when the game's already decided, might as well start trolling the Broncos now, no?

Broncos have a tougher game than we do. It' not a given that they will win.

TheIronDuke
01-11-2013, 02:12 PM
Well as you probably know they don't teach mathramatecs in schools in Texas. But I'm glad you're here to maybe learn us some while you're here.

That's cold saying we're worse than Baltimore by the way, again, I'm no good at math but using a calculator I found out that we beat them by 30 points when we played them this year so I just don't know how the Texans are so much more terrible than they are. I'm sure you have great calculations to deduce that though so I won't argue but I do appreciate your cool stories bro.

RandomVariable
01-11-2013, 03:23 PM
Well as you probably know they don't teach mathramatecs in schools in Texas. But I'm glad you're here to maybe learn us some while you're here.

That's cold saying we're worse than Baltimore by the way, again, I'm no good at math but using a calculator I found out that we beat them by 30 points when we played them this year so I just don't know how the Texans are so much more terrible than they are. I'm sure you have great calculations to deduce that though so I won't argue but I do appreciate your cool stories bro.

Haven't you guys repeated the fact that regular season games have no bearing on the post season (in reference to the game we made you look like a bunch of high school girls running around in Gillette Stadium)? Now all of a sudden regular season games matter? What happened last year when you played them in the Divisional round? Heck, they almost beat us in the AFC Championship. You played them in week 7 with an injury plagued defense in the middle of their losing streak.

They would destroy you now with Lewis playing like a beast.

TheIronDuke
01-11-2013, 03:35 PM
Haven't you guys repeated the fact that regular season games have no bearing on the post season (in reference to the game we made you look like a bunch of high school girls running around in Gillette Stadium)? Now all of a sudden regular season games matter? What happened last year when you played them in the Divisional round? Heck, they almost beat us in the AFC Championship. You played them in week 7 with an injury plagued defense in the middle of their losing streak.

They would destroy you now with Lewis playing like a beast.

I most certainly have never said that and have already predicted that we will lose 37-15 on the predict the game thread with us nailing 5 FG's, kind sir.

If you recall professor, we almost beat them in their house in the divisional round last season (lost 20-13) but we were unfortunately playing our 3rd string QB and had a brain-dead idiot (Jacoby Jones) giving them a free TD. I doubt your team would fare well if both Brady and Mallett went down and you had to run out whoever to run your offense. In fact, if you did, I would predict us to actually pull out the road win maybe.

ETA: You really think Ray Lewis is going to make a 30-point difference? Uhhhh, OK.

RandomVariable
01-11-2013, 04:25 PM
I most certainly have never said that and have already predicted that we will lose 37-15 on the predict the game thread with us nailing 5 FG's, kind sir.

If you recall professor, we almost beat them in their house in the divisional round last season (lost 20-13) but we were unfortunately playing our 3rd string QB and had a brain-dead idiot (Jacoby Jones) giving them a free TD. I doubt your team would fare well if both Brady and Mallett went down and you had to run out whoever to run your offense. In fact, if you did, I would predict us to actually pull out the road win maybe.

ETA: You really think Ray Lewis is going to make a 30-point difference? Uhhhh, OK.

The gap between Brady and our other QBs is larger than the gap between rat face and the Texans' 2nd or 3rd string QBs.

And no, not just Lewis. They are healthier and playing better as a whole. They also typically play better the deeper they go into the playoffs.

TheIronDuke
01-11-2013, 04:59 PM
The gap between Brady and our other QBs is larger than the gap between rat face and the Texans' 2nd or 3rd string QBs.

And no, not just Lewis. They are healthier and playing better as a whole. They also typically play better the deeper they go into the playoffs.

While I do agree that Tom Brady is very pretty, I think you're being a little hard on Schaub. Anyways, I managed to borrow a calculator from NASA because it's the only place us hicks got to do calculations and such. I crunched some numbers and found the Texans winning % in the playoffs is a staggering 67%! And on the rare occasion we lose it's only by 7 points. Looking at these figures I think we can agree that the Texans are pretty deadly come playoff time.

Either way I wish you luck in Denver and hope you have a wicked awesome time watching the Pats slaughter us. Please send the beautiful women of New England (both of them) my best and thanks for allowing us to play with you.

robroy72
01-11-2013, 05:20 PM
The gap between Brady and our other QBs is larger than the gap between rat face and the Texans' 2nd or 3rd string QBs.

And no, not just Lewis. They are healthier and playing better as a whole. They also typically play better the deeper they go into the playoffs.

Typically? That's not very scientific, is it?

RandomVariable
01-11-2013, 05:44 PM
While I do agree that Tom Brady is very pretty, I think you're being a little hard on Schaub. Anyways, I managed to borrow a calculator from NASA because it's the only place us hicks got to do calculations and such. I crunched some numbers and found the Texans winning % in the playoffs is a staggering 67%! And on the rare occasion we lose it's only by 7 points. Looking at these figures I think we can agree that the Texans are pretty deadly come playoff time.

Either way I wish you luck in Denver and hope you have a wicked awesome time watching the Pats slaughter us. Please send the beautiful women of New England (both of them) my best and thanks for allowing us to play with you.

A sample size of 3 is insufficient to make the kind of statement you made. Especially since their only wins have come in Wild Card games.

TheIronDuke
01-11-2013, 05:48 PM
A sample size of 3 is insufficient to make the kind of statement you made. Especially since their only wins have come in Wild Card games.

I know, just messing around old friend, you should know me by now. We've been exchanging witty barbs for ages it seems!

imatexan
01-12-2013, 11:13 PM
Unlike most (probably all) of you, I have a background in mathematics & statistics. So I respect what Nate Silver has been able to do. I also understand what he has done. With that, comes an understanding of the limitation of his prediction models. The models are dependent on the data inputs. Given that sports (more specifically predicting the outcome of sporting events) isn't a science, the quality of the data isn't as high due to the lack of ability to conduct controlled repeated experiments.

Does his prediction mean the Pats will 100% win the SB? No. Claiming otherwise would show a complete lack of knowledge of probability. But his prediction is more interesting and relevant than most TV NFL analysts who make blind predictions more or less.

The statistical probability of you being a pompous a$$ is very high.

fiasco west
01-12-2013, 11:18 PM
"I'd say that Denver and New England are the best two teams in the NFL," he said.

"You have to have one team from each conference, so if you have a Denver-New England AFC Championship Game, it might be one of those cases where it really is the de facto Super Bowl."


So much for that. Guess there won't be a super bowl this year.

qqert
01-12-2013, 11:58 PM
The statistical probability of you being a pompous a$$ is very high.

yanks. whaddaya expect? nothing but poor breeding.

TheIronDuke
01-13-2013, 08:36 AM
Doubt we will hear from Random Variable again, I see him already trolling Ravens fans on Broncos message boards.

RandomVariable
01-13-2013, 11:45 AM
Oh I will be here to let you guys know how wrong you were. Don't you worry.

Playoffs
01-13-2013, 12:08 PM
Love this guy...Nate what's-his-name.

You, know .... Nat.

The guy who predicted Obama would win, along with every other pundit with a >pea-sized brain.

And the guy who predicted the Broncos would win yesterday.http://www.davidmcelroy.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Obama-facepalm.jpg