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srrono
11-26-2012, 08:12 AM
The Deep End

Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games.

If the last six weeks of the 2012 season play out similarly to the first 10, the defensive story of the season could well be two sophomore defensive players: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and Broncos linebacker Von Miller. Their play has been so outstanding that the question might not be which deserves the Defensive Player of the Year award, but are either worthy of the MVP? I asked Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com to break down their play to try to answer those questions:

Playing Time: Watt has played 89 percent of Houston's defensive snaps and Miller 90 percent for Denver. Watt has been so dominant that teams have had to start game-planning just to stop him. So the Texans have moved him from his favored position on the left. In 2011 he was on the left 85 percent of his snaps, but it's 74 percent this year, as the Texans have shifted Watt around to counter blocking schemes. Miller has actually spent more time on his preferred left side (72 percent, up from 67 percent last year) because his position and style of play means he is far harder to scheme against. EDGE: Even.

Run Defense: Watt plays the run better than anyone else at his position (including defensive tackles). His 35 defensive stops in run defense (tackles which are defeats for the offense) are four more than anyone in football. In productivity terms that gives Watt a stop on 18 percent of running downs; the next best is Justin Smith at 12 percent. Miller can't match those pure numbers (he's 12th in the same stat against outside linebackers) but that's not his game. His position on the field distorts those figures. It's much fairer to say when he makes a play in run defense, it's usually a big one; the average gain on his 24 tackles in run defense? Minus-1 yard. EDGE: Watt.

Pass Rush: Miller is the most devastating pass rusher at any position in the NFL. There is no one on offense who can consistently match up to him; offensive linemen are not quick enough to counter his acceleration. The 49ers' brilliant outside 'backer, Aldon Smith, has 43 quarterback disruptions this year on 292 pass rushes. Miller has 61 on 297, 41 percent more on nearly the same number of attempts. Watt's base numbers are excellent too (49 quarterback disruptions from 402 rushes). They come a close second in productivity terms to the Bengals' Geno Atkins, who has 40 QB disruptions on 300 pass rush snaps. EDGE: Miller

Coverage: Well, Watt doesn't cover, so this is an odd stat for him (he's dropped in coverage only 14 times), but there has to be a way to count his passes swatted away. He has tipped 13 passes at the line of scrimmage, more than twice as many as the next player. Since 2008, the most we'd had in a full season before this was in 2009, when Johnny Jolly batted down 10. Watt is probably redefining the way in which linemen will be taught to play. Pass coverage is currently seen as a weakness in Miller's game. He's average in that regard, but compared to the other facets of his game it's clearly not as well developed. Having said that, he's only dropped in coverage on 92 plays so far. EDGE: Watt.

In Summary: Many players on defense are having great years, but no one is as far ahead of the competition as J.J. Watt and Von Miller. Just as Darrelle Revis did in the early part of 2011, they are redefining what's achievable at their positions. Who's better? Flip a coin. Good thing there are five games left for each, so one can win the award they both now deserve.

Full article
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/11/26/Week-12/index.html

GP
11-26-2012, 08:45 AM
If people think Von Miller is in a tie with Watt, then those people are crazy.

JJ Watt has astronomical numbers at a position that shouldn't have those levels of numbers. End of story.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 08:59 AM
If people think Von Miller is in a tie with Watt, then those people are crazy.

JJ Watt has astronomical numbers at a position that shouldn't have those levels of numbers. End of story.

I think they are saying the same is true for Von Miller at his position. I think yesterday was an off game for Miller stat-wise, but he commands attention on defense. He affects the game.

I would imagine the vote here (on this board) will be split, being Von Miller is sort-of a hometown boy & Watt plays for the Texans I doubt too many people will have an issue if either were to win the MVP (which won't happen).

I do believe there should be a slight edge to Watt, but I don't know if I'm being a littel biased. Von Miller is a bad-ass.

beerlover
11-26-2012, 09:08 AM
I would take Aldon Smith over Von Miller & Watt over both.

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 09:10 AM
The pass rushing stat is not really fair as von as put in a position to do that, much easier for him than it is watt. Put miller at DT or 3-4 DE and let's see how he does.

DBCooper
11-26-2012, 09:39 AM
The pass rushing stat is not really fair as von as put in a position to do that, much easier for him than it is watt. Put miller at DT or 3-4 DE and let's see how he does.

No, put Miller as OLB in our 3-4 and watch him play!

Dutchrudder
11-26-2012, 10:14 AM
The pass rushing stat is not really fair as von as put in a position to do that, much easier for him than it is watt. Put miller at DT or 3-4 DE and let's see how he does.

What exactly is the issue for you here? They play different positions, so obviously it won't match up perfectly. The author is trying to compare and contrast two of the best defensive players in the NFL, who coincidentally were both drafted in 2011. They both play 90% of their team's snaps (which is probably why Aldon Smith was left out of this), and they both make a tremendous impact on what appear to be the top two teams in the AFC.

FTA:

Miller has 61 on 297, .... Watt's base numbers are excellent too (49 quarterback disruptions from 402 rushes)

Watt clearly does not generate as much pressure as Miller on a per play basis. It's a fact, regardless of what their sack numbers are. Sacks are overrated, because a QB pressure that leads to an incompletion or an INT doesn't show up in the stats. Stat geeks like PFF are trying to change that perception with the type of stats presented in the article, because QB pressures and hits are often overlooked.

That line I quoted shows that 20.5% of the time Miller rushes, he disrupts the QB, whereas 12.2% of the time Watt rushes, he does the same. That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game. It's a good comparison as these two may be the top candidates for Defensive player of the year.

TdotTexas2Step
11-26-2012, 10:44 AM
Whatever happens will happen.

But as a Texans fan, how great is that in his sophomore year, JJ Watt is in the discussion of best defensive player in the league?

98 overall in Madden too now...that should be the tiebreaker for votes.

:fans:

infantrycak
11-26-2012, 10:56 AM
That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game.

I agree with your post except for the bold. Even adjusting to bring in hits and pressures the stats can't be adjusted for performance in comparison to the position played. They are both fantastic. I would have called that one even with an underlying urge to say Watt because what he is doing for his position is more exceptional.

Playoffs
11-26-2012, 11:07 AM
J.J. Watt is an MVP candidate. He won't win it, or perhaps even enter the discussion because he's not a QB/offensive player.

Von Miller is http://www.modacity.net/forums/styles/smilies/emot-airquote.gifjust a damn good, lighting quick pass rushing OLB.


Note that we're seeing the beginnings again of an old media friend: the 'Peyton love', and how everything attached to Peyton is the best. More and more affected media types are touting the Broncos as the best team in the AFC. Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis? Those are just two guys who used to be on Peyton's team.

Jackie Chiles
11-26-2012, 11:14 AM
I took exception to the media hyping up Charles Tillman for DPOTY because I felt like JJ was (still is) having a clearly superior season and is significantly more talented. Von Miller is different, dude is an animal and although JJ should still be considered the favorite I would not have a big problem if Miller won. These are two players that will likely be the gold standard on defense for the next decade plus.

Insideop
11-26-2012, 11:15 AM
What exactly is the issue for you here? They play different positions, so obviously it won't match up perfectly. The author is trying to compare and contrast two of the best defensive players in the NFL, who coincidentally were both drafted in 2011. They both play 90% of their team's snaps (which is probably why Aldon Smith was left out of this), and they both make a tremendous impact on what appear to be the top two teams in the AFC.

FTA:



Watt clearly does not generate as much pressure as Miller on a per play basis. It's a fact, regardless of what their sack numbers are. Sacks are overrated, because a QB pressure that leads to an incompletion or an INT doesn't show up in the stats. Stat geeks like PFF are trying to change that perception with the type of stats presented in the article, because QB pressures and hits are often overlooked.

That line I quoted shows that 20.5% of the time Miller rushes, he disrupts the QB, whereas 12.2% of the time Watt rushes, he does the same. That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game. It's a good comparison as these two may be the top candidates for Defensive player of the year.

Miller may be the better pass rusher but that's not what the award is given for (Though some might argue that point.). It's for the best defensive player for a given year. And, if you look at all areas (sacks, hurries, QB pressures, tipped passes or PDF, TFL's, total tackles, etc...), I think you'll find JJ is the best all around defensive player in the NFL this season hands down.

Mr teX
11-26-2012, 11:15 AM
I agree with your post except for the bold. Even adjusting to bring in hits and pressures the stats can't be adjusted for performance in comparison to the position played. They are both fantastic. I would have called that one even with an underlying urge to say Watt because what he is doing for his position is more exceptional.

Exactly & if pass rushing is Miller's specialty...Watt's still got more sacks than he does after yesterday. Also, i don't really see Miller's getting double teamed down-in & down-out like Watt is. It's Watt & it's not close imo.

Dutchrudder
11-26-2012, 11:49 AM
I agree with your post except for the bold. Even adjusting to bring in hits and pressures the stats can't be adjusted for performance in comparison to the position played. They are both fantastic. I would have called that one even with an underlying urge to say Watt because what he is doing for his position is more exceptional.

So you're saying Watt should get a handicap because he plays a position that is traditionally not a pass rusher? Yeah, I'll still go with Miller as the better pass rusher of the two. Watt is clearly the better overall player, but he does not get to the QB as well as Miller does. Von looks like the second coming of Demarcus Ware to me.

Dutchrudder
11-26-2012, 11:58 AM
Miller may be the better pass rusher but that's not what the award is given for (Though some might argue that point.). It's for the best defensive player for a given year. And, if you look at all areas (sacks, hurries, QB pressures, tipped passes or PDF, TFL's, total tackles, etc...), I think you'll find JJ is the best all around defensive player in the NFL this season hands down.

Never said he wasn't the best all around defensive player, I said he wasn't as good of a pass rusher as Miller. The original post I was responding to was discussing the pass rushing, as if Watt needs some sort of handicap because he doesn't rush enough. He clearly doesn't need any help as his stats and performance will outweigh any perceived slighting due to his position as a 34 DE. I don't really see why this is so difficult to understand, if you want QB pressure, you get a pass rusher like Ware, Miller, Aldon Smith, Peppers, etc etc. That's their specialty. The fact that Watt is doing it at a high level this season is a bonus to the tremendous contributions he makes in other ways.

On a related note, I would love to see a stat for "Assists" when a player causes a turnover through a pass deflected towards a teammate that results in an INT. Those are WAY more valuable than sacks.

infantrycak
11-26-2012, 12:29 PM
So you're saying Watt should get a handicap because he plays a position that is traditionally not a pass rusher? Yeah, I'll still go with Miller as the better pass rusher of the two. Watt is clearly the better overall player, but he does not get to the QB as well as Miller does. Von looks like the second coming of Demarcus Ware to me.

I don't consider it a handicap. I consider it taking context into consideration. Miller is doing exceptionally but not at a virtually previously unseen level like Watt. In addition, many of Miller's stats come on unabated plays whereas none of Watt's do.

Playoffs
11-26-2012, 12:35 PM
Geno Atkins: DPOY Candidate (https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/26/geno-atkins-dpoy-candidate/)

I'd put Geno ahead of Miller at this point. DT less likely to get the press, but he's flat out killing it this year.

GP
11-26-2012, 02:02 PM
So you're saying Watt should get a handicap because he plays a position that is traditionally not a pass rusher? Yeah, I'll still go with Miller as the better pass rusher of the two. Watt is clearly the better overall player, but he does not get to the QB as well as Miller does. Von looks like the second coming of Demarcus Ware to me.

Watt is dominating so many statistical categories, sometimes by as much as a 2-to-1 advantage, that I think he's the better of the two players.

In terms of affecting the overall game of an opposing offense, whether that be the run OR the pass...Watt, IMO, is the most dominating of the two players.

Which sucks because lately no other Texans defensive player is taking advantage of the double teams that Watt has been consistently drawing by blockers. I think Cody is, as some have said all along, a most necessary component of the DL. Obviously losing Cushing sucks, too. Two of our guys on the front 7 are out, and then they're double teaming Watt....so if guys like Barwin or Reed or Smith can't find ways to make hay out of opposing QBs and RBs, then what does that tell us about those guys???? Opens up a whole 'nuther can of worms is what it does.

eriadoc
11-26-2012, 02:08 PM
Two of our guys on the front 7 are out ...

Cushing, Cody, Sharpton's in and out, Reed, Bradie James, and Dobbins. The four starting LBs are now Barwin, Mercilus, and some combination of Sharpton, James, and Ruud, depending on the weekly injury report. Further remove JJo from the back end and it's easy to see why the defense is not all that great lately.

76Texan
11-26-2012, 02:25 PM
I question those numbers.

Advanced NFL stats has Watt with 17 sacks.
The official number is 14.5, but if you count it as a QB disruption, it's 17.

Next, Watt had 13 PDs; so the running total of QB disruption is now 30 (17+13).

Then Watt had 30 QB Hits.
It gets a little dicey here since the Hits occurred after the QB threw the ball.
It could be a completed pass, it could be an incompletion as the QB may not be able to make a good throw. The ball could even be intercepted.

And then we don't have the number of QB hurries (without being hit).
We don't have the number that Watt forced a QB to scramble and run or the time he chased the QB out of the pocket.

All those things are disruptions.
I do not believe for a moment that Watt only totaled 19 of them combined.

Texanmike02
11-26-2012, 02:38 PM
I'm not sure how you compare the two. Do these stats consider every time that Watt doesn't drop into coverage (or the opponent run the ball) an attempt to rush the passer? If that's the case then the whole arguemtent is flawed. Miller plays in a 4-3. When he is rushing the passer he is the 5th pass rusher. You can't "double team" Miller. Watt gets to the passer from the line. He is constantly double teamed. When Miller rushes the passer the play is designed to get him to the passer, you can't say the same for Watt. Watt plays on the line and he is asked to occupy blockers (he just happens to get by them frequently).

I really don't think there is much of a comparison. Watt is filling the role of guy that occupy's blockers and still getting to the passer while Miller is a pass rusher. They are both incredible but we've never seen anyone do what Watt does, EVER. Miller is incredible but what he does is not unprecedented.

Mike

Speedy
11-26-2012, 02:46 PM
So you're saying Watt should get a handicap because he plays a position that is traditionally not a pass rusher? Yeah, I'll still go with Miller as the better pass rusher of the two. Watt is clearly the better overall player, but he does not get to the QB as well as Miller does. Von looks like the second coming of Demarcus Ware to me.

Which one has more sacks again? Not saying Miller isn't a beast, but the pass rush specialist is a half a sack behind the guy with the handicap of not playing a traditional pass rush position.

J.J. Watt is changing the game. He is likely redefining how linemen play this game in the future. That's Babe Ruth-ish, Wilt Chamberlain-ish.

Scooter
11-26-2012, 02:52 PM
watt is far and away leading run stopping categories. he's been first or second in sacks all season. AND he's already broken the record for passes defensed by a lineman. what's the discussion again? he isnt as good a pass rusher as the free blitzer who has fewer sacks?

DBCooper
11-26-2012, 02:53 PM
Which one has more sacks again? Not saying Miller isn't a beast, but the pass rush specialist is a half a sack behind the guy with the handicap of not playing a traditional pass rush position.

J.J. Watt is changing the game. He is likely redefining how linemen play this game in the future. That's Babe Ruth-ish, Wilt Chamberlain-ish.

Dude!

That's alot of women!

DBCooper
11-26-2012, 02:54 PM
This discussion is comical.

Miller isn't even the MVP of his own team let alone the NFL.

GP
11-26-2012, 03:01 PM
watt is far and away leading run stopping categories. he's been first or second in sacks all season. AND he's already broken the record for passes defensed by a lineman. what's the discussion again? he isnt as good a pass rusher as the free blitzer who has fewer sacks?

Rep your way if it lets me.

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 03:02 PM
What exactly is the issue for you here? They play different positions, so obviously it won't match up perfectly. The author is trying to compare and contrast two of the best defensive players in the NFL, who coincidentally were both drafted in 2011. They both play 90% of their team's snaps (which is probably why Aldon Smith was left out of this), and they both make a tremendous impact on what appear to be the top two teams in the AFC.

FTA:



Watt clearly does not generate as much pressure as Miller on a per play basis. It's a fact, regardless of what their sack numbers are. Sacks are overrated, because a QB pressure that leads to an incompletion or an INT doesn't show up in the stats. Stat geeks like PFF are trying to change that perception with the type of stats presented in the article, because QB pressures and hits are often overlooked.

That line I quoted shows that 20.5% of the time Miller rushes, he disrupts the QB, whereas 12.2% of the time Watt rushes, he does the same. That's a difference in their game, but it's not a detriment to Watt, Miller is simply a better pass rusher and it's the most valuable part of his game. It's a good comparison as these two may be the top candidates for Defensive player of the year.

No issue just saying millers position is designed to get more sacks/rush the passer and watts position is not. That's all I'm saying

GP
11-26-2012, 03:21 PM
No issue just saying millers position is designed to get more sacks/rush the passer and watts position is not. That's all I'm saying

I'd like to see VM have to engage an OL on every single snap. No outside angle as his fellow DL dig into that trench fortification...every snap.

Yeah, Watt is a thick boneless ribeye over mesquite smoke. Miller's the sirloin on a griddle. No shame in a sirloin, but the marbling in that ribeye??? Mmmmm...good.

DocBar
11-26-2012, 04:30 PM
Which one has more sacks again? Not saying Miller isn't a beast, but the pass rush specialist is a half a sack behind the guy with the handicap of not playing a traditional pass rush position.

J.J. Watt is changing the game. He is likely redefining how linemen play this game in the future. That's Babe Ruth-ish, Wilt Chamberlain-ish.

watt is far and away leading run stopping categories. he's been first or second in sacks all season. AND he's already broken the record for passes defensed by a lineman. what's the discussion again? he isnt as good a pass rusher as the free blitzer who has fewer sacks?Repped both. Good posts.

Dutchrudder
11-26-2012, 04:32 PM
Which one has more sacks again? Not saying Miller isn't a beast, but the pass rush specialist is a half a sack behind the guy with the handicap of not playing a traditional pass rush position.

J.J. Watt is changing the game. He is likely redefining how linemen play this game in the future. That's Babe Ruth-ish, Wilt Chamberlain-ish.

There's a lot more to being a good pass rusher than sacks.

I'd like to see VM have to engage an OL on every single snap. No outside angle as his fellow DL dig into that trench fortification...every snap.

Yeah, Watt is a thick boneless ribeye over mesquite smoke. Miller's the sirloin on a griddle. No shame in a sirloin, but the marbling in that ribeye??? Mmmmm...good.

Do you even watch Broncos games? I mean honestly, have you paid attention to Von Miller at all this season, or last season? He didn't win DROY by getting 11 unhindered runs at the QB, he has quite a few moves on top of great speed. He does in fact draw double teams, and when we played the Broncos in week 3, we had a TE, an OT or both going against him every play (D Brown shut him down a few times btw). He never had a single free run at Schaub from what I saw (though he did beat Newton/OD/Graham a few times to get QB hits). Go watch the game on TTTube if you don't believe me, he's number 58. He is usually at the WOLB position, but him and Dumerville switch sometimes, and he rushes the middle too. He definitely draws a lot of attention from opposing offenses, but like any elite player, he can overcome what they throw at him.

DocBar
11-26-2012, 04:37 PM
There's a lot more to being a good pass rusher than sacks.



Do you even watch Broncos games? I mean honestly, have you paid attention to Von Miller at all this season, or last season? He didn't win DROY by getting 11 unhindered runs at the QB, he has quite a few moves on top of great speed. He does in fact draw double teams, and when we played the Broncos in week 3, we had a TE, an OT or both going against him every play (D Brown shut him down a few times btw). He never had a single free run at Schaub from what I saw (though he did beat Newton/OD/Graham a few times to get QB hits). Go watch the game on TTTube if you don't believe me, he's number 58. He is usually at the WOLB position, but him and Dumerville switch sometimes, and he rushes the middle too. He definitely draws a lot of attention from opposing offenses, but like any elite player, he can overcome what they throw at him.I wonder how many sacks JJ would have if they doubled him with a tackle and TE or RB. Huge difference getting doubled up by a G/C and a T/TE or T/RB.

76Texan
11-26-2012, 04:54 PM
There's a lot more to being a good pass rusher than sacks.



Do you even watch Broncos games? I mean honestly, have you paid attention to Von Miller at all this season, or last season? He didn't win DROY by getting 11 unhindered runs at the QB, he has quite a few moves on top of great speed. He does in fact draw double teams, and when we played the Broncos in week 3, we had a TE, an OT or both going against him every play (D Brown shut him down a few times btw). He never had a single free run at Schaub from what I saw (though he did beat Newton/OD/Graham a few times to get QB hits). Go watch the game on TTTube if you don't believe me, he's number 58. He is usually at the WOLB position, but him and Dumerville switch sometimes, and he rushes the middle too. He definitely draws a lot of attention from opposing offenses, but like any elite player, he can overcome what they throw at him.
Dummervile was the one who got credited for one sack and 3 QB hits.

Miller had none.
All he had was 3 assists.

Playoffs
11-26-2012, 04:56 PM
I'd like to see VM have to engage an OL on every single snap.We're going to need find some faster OL'men, then. :ahhaha:

Dutchrudder
11-26-2012, 05:15 PM
Dummervile was the one who got credited for one sack and 3 QB hits.

Miller had none.
All he had was 3 assists.

Odd, I must have created this from my imagination...

http://i465.photobucket.com/albums/rr14/themishkin/Sports/My%20Gifs/BroncosMillerHit1.gif

:)

Makes me wonder how accurate FBO and PFF are in assessing their scores and counting things like this. Do they not count it if there is a penalty?

76Texan
11-26-2012, 05:18 PM
We're going to need find some faster OL'men, then. :ahhaha:

I just rewatched the game.
Duane Brown handled him like a bug.
Even when he went up against Graham and O.D., he was neutralized.

He did gain the upper edge against Newton 3 times, but each time, Schaub already threw the ball (not sure if any of those qualifies as QB hurry - maybe one.)
Newton did pancake him twice though (got called for holding on one because he threw Miller to the ground.)
And Newton was only in his third game.

Miller did get to Schaub once when Foster was assigned to him and missed the cut block.
Miller got called for roughing the passer on that play so no stat was recorded.

76Texan
11-26-2012, 05:19 PM
Odd, I must have created this from my imagination...

http://i465.photobucket.com/albums/rr14/themishkin/Sports/My%20Gifs/BroncosMillerHit1.gif

:)

Makes me wonder how accurate FBO and PFF are in assessing their scores and counting things like this. Do they not count it if there is a penalty?

Read my post above.
It was Foster that missed the cut block.
No lineman was on him on that play.

Rey
11-26-2012, 05:19 PM
No need to sell miller short to make watt look better.

76Texan
11-26-2012, 05:22 PM
No need to sell miller short to make watt look better.

No, just stating what I saw in that game.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 05:30 PM
No need to sell miller short to make watt look better.

Agreed. Miller is a better pass rusher....... period.

Watt is probably the more rounded player. Watt probably affects the game more.

I look at Watt & I see a self made guy. You could change out the whole DL (save maybe Antonio) & Watts going to get his. We're seeing that now as he's getting virtually no help. I don't think Miller would disapear without Dummerville, but he certainly won't have the same impact.

But like I said earlier. I wouldn't cry one bit if Miller wins the DPOY over Watt.

Playoffs
11-26-2012, 05:56 PM
Makes me wonder how accurate FBO and PFF are in assessing their scores and counting things like this. Do they not count it if there is a penalty?

PFF's line for Miller vs. Texans

Penalty - 1, QBHits - 1, QBHurries - 3, Tackles(ex-sacks) - 2, Stops* - 2.

*Stop = solo tackle (including sacks) that constitute an offensive failure

76Texan
11-26-2012, 06:05 PM
PFF's line for Miller vs. Texans

Penalty - 1, QBHits - 1, QBHurries - 3, Tackles(ex-sacks) - 2, Stops* - 2.

*Stop = solo tackle (including sacks) that constitute an offensive failure

Looks like they are extremely generous with their observation.

The number of 3 assists that I noted was from the official NFL.com game book.

I believe they've been using Stats Inc for years (same as Elias Sports Bureau, the one that is responsible for correcting stats when teams send in their disputes.)

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 06:49 PM
Agreed. Miller is a better pass rusher....... period.

Watt is probably the more rounded player. Watt probably affects the game more.

I look at Watt & I see a self made guy. You could change out the whole DL (save maybe Antonio) & Watts going to get his. We're seeing that now as he's getting virtually no help. I don't think Miller would disapear without Dummerville, but he certainly won't have the same impact.

But like I said earlier. I wouldn't cry one bit if Miller wins the DPOY over Watt.

Funny thing is Watt is not supposed to be a pass rusher at that position in the 3-4. He is supposed to open up lanes for the LBs. Millers position is made to sack the QB. I just dont see how yall can compare a guy who often gets to go against TEs, and HBs to a guy who is constantly double teamed by G, OT and then the HB is usually there to help as well.

I mean come on, thats like saying ur a better shot than me while your shooting a target that isnt moving while mine is dancing around like a UFO.

Speedy
11-26-2012, 07:23 PM
There's a lot more to being a good pass rusher than sacks.




Right. And Watt is doing those things at an extreme level as well - from a "position that is traditionally not a pass rusher".

Texecutioner
11-26-2012, 07:32 PM
People saying that this isn't even close sound like huge homers. It's okay to rep for Watt and all, but you guys clearly haven't been watching Miller to say something like that. Every Broncos game I've watched Miller has been a total beast that has looked unblockable.

Now I do think that Watt has been slightly better, but that's mainly due to his ability to play the run well and more importantly his skills at deflecting passes. His deflections have been at huge times and have contributed to big plays for TO's. I think that Watt is just doing more everywhere. Therefore I'd say Watt should get this award if it happened now. But to act like this isn't even close as if Miller hasn't been outstanding at his own type of level and skills for their defense is just disregarding anything that he has done out of fanship for Watt. We all lover Watt, and I think he is the better guy at this point, but not by a lot.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 07:37 PM
Funny thing is Watt is not supposed to be a pass rusher at that position in the 3-4. He is supposed to open up lanes for the LBs. Millers position is made to sack the QB. I just dont see how yall can compare a guy who often gets to go against TEs, and HBs to a guy who is constantly double teamed by G, OT and then the HB is usually there to help as well.

I mean come on, thats like saying ur a better shot than me while your shooting a target that isnt moving while mine is dancing around like a UFO.

Did you see the number of times Watt rushes the passer compared to how many sacks he gets? Miller's number is much higher, meaning he gets to the passer more often on less opportunities. IMO, the "position" is already factored in.

Because Watt is the best 3-4 DE in the game, doesn't & shouldn't give him an edge in DPOY.

Body of work, their impact on the game, I think Watt is head & shoulders above everyone else. However, I understand I may be biased.

Miller has had a heck of an impact on the game as well. Beyond just getting after the QB. If the powers that be feel that Miller has had the most impact, so be it.

Imagine Brian Cushing was having a season similar to the one he had as a rookie & Watt is playing like he is now. Which one do you think would have the most impact on the game?

Texan_Bill
11-26-2012, 07:41 PM
I would take Aldon Smith over Von Miller & Watt over both.

So basically your entire assesment of defensive linemen is solely based on sacks (16.5 v. 14.5 which includes the mysterious sack they took away from Watt v. Miami)? The reason I ask is Watt leads Smith in almost every other defensive catagories.

Tackles:
Watt 54 (44 solo) - Smith 48 (40 solo)

Passes defended:
Watt 13 - Smith 0

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 07:42 PM
Did you see the number of times Watt rushes the passer compared to how many sacks he gets? Miller's number is much higher, meaning he gets to the passer more often on less opportunities. IMO, the "position" is already factored in.

Because Watt is the best 3-4 DE in the game, doesn't & shouldn't give him an edge in DPOY.

Body of work, their impact on the game, I think Watt is head & shoulders above everyone else. However, I understand I may be biased.

Miller has had a heck of an impact on the game as well. Beyond just getting after the QB. If the powers that be feel that Miller has had the most impact, so be it.

Imagine Brian Cushing was having a season similar to the one he had as a rookie & Watt is playing like he is now. Which one do you think would have the most impact on the game?

Ok again like i said Watt is facing constant double teams against G and OT and a lot of time triple teams with the HB helping out. Miller gets a lot of one on one and gets a lot of TE/HB match-ups. You cannot look at the stats/rushes and get an accurate conclusion. And i sure as hell hope he gets to the QB more per rushes. Again it all has to do with his position.

And the reason Watt will get DPOY is because it is so much more rare for a 3-4 DE to have the kinda success that watt is compared to the success of the position miller plays.

Watt Miller
Sacks 14.5 14.0
TFL 24 23
TCKL 54 47
Solo 44 39
PD 13 0
FF 0 4

Ok Now Miller has 4 FF, how many Tipped passes by watt has turned into turnovers ? I have no idea but i bet its close if not more than 4. Dont see how u think a guy who gets to go against TE's and HB's more times than not clearly wins out over the guy who gets double teames by the big guys up front and STILL has better stats than Miller.

TexansFanatic
11-26-2012, 07:52 PM
Every Broncos game I've watched Miller has been a total beast that has looked unblockable.

They've both looked unblockable but Miller has a half sack fewer than Watt, seven fewer total tackles than Watt, and 13 times fewer passes defensed than Watt. I think the PD figure is what makes many of us feel like this race isn't close.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 08:05 PM
They've both looked unblockable and Miller has a half sack fewer than Watt, eight fewer tackles than Watt, and 13 times fewer passes defensed. I think the PD figure is what makes many of us think this race isn't close.

Yeah, you're just going to have to watch the game. As an OLB, Strong side, Miller is very much involved in the pass defense. Watt's PD is what brings him into the conversation. The OLB position is naturally a more versatile position. Watt's PD makes him a more versatile player, & now he impacts the game the way an OLB does.

Just because Von Miller doesn't get his hands on the ball, he's still doing his job in pass coverage.

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 08:07 PM
Yeah, you're just going to have to watch the game. As an OLB, Strong side, Miller is very much involved in the pass defense. Watt's PD is what brings him into the conversation.

Just because Von Miller doesn't get his hands on the ball, he's still doing his job in pass coverage.

UMMMM so Watt has better stats in every category than miller and the only reason he is in the mix is because the PD. :kitten:

So what brings miller into the mix then ? I mean since Watt does have him beat in nearly all the other categories as well !

TexansFanatic
11-26-2012, 08:08 PM
Just because Von Miller doesn't get his hands on the ball, he's still doing his job in pass coverage.

He's doing his job, sure, but he's not changing the game the way Watt is changing the game by getting his hands on the ball. Has there been one pick six as a result of Watt's deflections or two? There have certainly been more than one interception resultant.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 08:10 PM
UMMMM so Watt has better stats in every category than miller and the only reason he is in the mix is because the PD. :kitten:

So then what brings miller into the mix then ? I mean since Watt does have him beat in nearly all the other categories as well !

An OLB is like a Bishop on a chess board. You don't want to lose him because he is so versatile. A DT is like a Knight. Normally you'd rather lose the Knight to save your Bishop.

Jj Watt is a Knight that plays like a Bishop. If it weren't for his PDs, he'd only be a Knight.

Texan_Bill
11-26-2012, 08:11 PM
UMMMM so Watt has better stats in every category than miller and the only reason he is in the mix is because the PD. :kitten:

So what brings miller into the mix then ? I mean since Watt does have him beat in nearly all the other categories as well !

Peyton Manning. :kitten:

TexansFanatic
11-26-2012, 08:12 PM
If it weren't for his PDs, he'd only be a Knight.

Which makes him better than a Bishop.

Texan_Bill
11-26-2012, 08:12 PM
UMMMM so Watt has better stats in every category than miller and the only reason he is in the mix is because the PD. :kitten:

So what brings miller into the mix then ? I mean since Watt does have him beat in nearly all the other categories as well !

Joel Dreessen. :gamer:

Texan_Bill
11-26-2012, 08:13 PM
Which makes him better than a Bishop.

Damnit... I forget how to play chess.

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 08:13 PM
He's doing his job, sure, but he's not changing the game the way Watt is changing the game by getting his hands on the ball. Has there been one pick six as a result of Watt's deflections or two? There have certainly been more than one interception resultant.

Lets not argue with him, Watt is only only on pace to break the PD by a D-line player, The sack record for a 3-4 DE end. You know nothing special. Where on the other hand Miller is doing what MANY MANY other OLB have done for years before him.

:wadepalm:

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 08:14 PM
Peyton Manning. :kitten:

DAMN man you are right, WTF was i thinking.

Texan_Bill
11-26-2012, 08:15 PM
So basically your entire assesment of defensive linemen is solely based on sacks (16.5 v. 14.5 which includes the mysterious sack they took away from Watt v. Miami)? The reason I ask is Watt leads Smith in almost every other defensive catagories.

Tackles:
Watt 54 (44 solo) - Smith 48 (40 solo)

Passes defended:
Watt 13 - Smith 0

Damnit!! I said that. ^^^^

Ok again like i said Watt is facing constant double teams against G and OT and a lot of time triple teams with the HB helping out. Miller gets a lot of one on one and gets a lot of TE/HB match-ups. You cannot look at the stats/rushes and get an accurate conclusion. And i sure as hell hope he gets to the QB more per rushes. Again it all has to do with his position.

And the reason Watt will get DPOY is because it is so much more rare for a 3-4 DE to have the kinda success that watt is compared to the success of the position miller plays.

Watt Miller
Sacks 14.5 14.0
TFL 24 23
TCKL 54 47
Solo 44 39
PD 13 0
FF 0 4

Ok Now Miller has 4 FF, how many Tipped passes by watt has turned into turnovers ? I have no idea but i bet its close if not more than 4. Dont see how u think a guy who gets to go against TE's and HB's more times than not clearly wins out over the guy who gets double teames by the big guys up front and STILL has better stats than Miller.

:brando:

DocBar
11-26-2012, 08:15 PM
An OLB is like a Bishop on a chess board. You don't want to lose him because he is so versatile. A DT is like a Knight. Normally you'd rather lose the Knight to save your Bishop.

Jj Watt is a Knight that plays like a Bishop. If it weren't for his PDs, he'd only be a Knight.

You don't play much chess do you? :pop:

Texan_Bill
11-26-2012, 08:17 PM
DAMN man you are right, WTF was i thinking.

I pull one out of my A$$ once in a while. ;)

EllisUnit
11-26-2012, 08:20 PM
An OLB is like a Bishop on a chess board. You don't want to lose him because he is so versatile. A DT is like a Knight. Normally you'd rather lose the Knight to save your Bishop.

Jj Watt is a Knight that plays like a Bishop. If it weren't for his PDs, he'd only be a Knight.

DUDE his stats are better than miller.......... It is SO RARE for a D-line guy (in a 3-4 defense) to do what Watt has done. And THAT IS WHY he will win DPOY.

And your chess terms are way off.

I say Miller is like a Pawn, theres just so damn many of them ;).

TexansFanatic
11-26-2012, 08:20 PM
You don't play much chess do you? :pop:

I've played a crapload of chess in my day and I'm pretty freaking good at it. I'll reveal one of my hallmark moves here: I always sacrifice my bishop for my opponent's knight. Knights are tricky little bastards. :)

infantrycak
11-26-2012, 08:33 PM
Ok Now Miller has 4 FF, how many Tipped passes by watt has turned into turnovers ? I have no idea but i bet its close if not more than 4.

I know there had been 4 several games ago. Can't remember any since.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 08:41 PM
I've played a crapload of chess in my day and I'm pretty freaking good at it. I'll reveal one of my hallmark moves here: I always sacrifice my bishop for my opponent's knight. Knights are tricky little bastards. :)

It's a preference thing.

amazing80
11-26-2012, 08:49 PM
Miller just got dominated this week, Watt is clearly the DPOY and the MVP in my eyes....just unreal how dominant he is when the game is on the line

DocBar
11-26-2012, 09:11 PM
It's a preference thing.I agree. Some people see a knights moves better and some see a bishops better. I would also say Watt is more of a castle than anything else. He goes east-west as well as north-south. :tiphat:

Dutchrudder
11-26-2012, 09:25 PM
I've played a crapload of chess in my day and I'm pretty freaking good at it. I'll reveal one of my hallmark moves here: I always sacrifice my bishop for my opponent's knight. Knights are tricky little bastards. :)

Well the guy next to your name certainly looks like a chess player.

TexansFanatic
11-26-2012, 09:37 PM
Well the guy next to your name certainly looks like a chess player.

The high school bearing his name produced a helluva chess team. ;-)

LINK (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Goldwater_High_School)

Texecutioner
11-26-2012, 09:48 PM
I've played a crapload of chess in my day and I'm pretty freaking good at it. I'll reveal one of my hallmark moves here: I always sacrifice my bishop for my opponent's knight. Knights are tricky little bastards. :)

Ah man aren't they?! My dad and his buddy who is one of the best players I've ever played is scrap iron with his knights. He moves them all over the place and catches me off guard all the time even when I'm watching the hell out of his knights. Most frustrating piece when you run into someone who really knows how to use them.

TexansFanatic
11-26-2012, 09:55 PM
Ah man aren't they?! My dad and his buddy who is one of the best players I've ever played is scrap iron with his knights. He moves them all over the place and catches me off guard all the time even when I'm watching the hell out of his knights. Most frustrating piece when you run into someone who really knows how to use them.

A knight's fork move is just a game killer.

Texan_Bill
11-26-2012, 10:09 PM
In checkers:

If, after making a capture, a piece is in a position to make another capture (either along the same diagonal or a different one) it must do so, all as part of the same turn.
Capturing two opposing pieces in a turn is called a double jump, capturing three pieces in a turn is a triple jump , and so on.

*****************

WTF does this have anything to do with Peter King??? What an asshat he generally is, no???