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brakos82
10-22-2012, 01:36 PM
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 7

Division Leaders:

Texans (6-1)... HFA 54%... Top-2 69%... Division 82%... Playoffs 95%.
Ravens (5-2)... HFA 17%... Top-2 41%... Division 67%... Playoffs 80%.
Broncos (3-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 25%... Division 60%... Playoffs 72%.
Patriots (4-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 20%... Division 45%... Playoffs 61%.

Wild-Cards:

Chargers (3-3) (Even with DEN)... HFA 4%... Top-2 11%... Division 26%... Playoffs 48%.
Steelers (3-3) (1.5 behind BAL)... HFA 2%... Top-2 8%... Division 26%... Playoffs 44%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Dolphins (3-3) (0.5 behind NE)... HFA 2%... Top-2 8%... Division 25%... Playoffs 40%.
NY Jets (3-4) (1 behind NE)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 20%... Playoffs 33%.
Titans (3-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 8%... Playoffs 31%.
Colts (3-3) (2.5 behind HOU)... HFA 2%... Top-2 5%... Division 9%... Playoffs 28%.
Raiders (2-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 8%... Playoffs 24%.
Bills (3-4) (1 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 19%.
Bengals (3-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 15%.

All-but-eliminated:

Chiefs (1-5) Playoffs: 6%.
Jaguars (1-5) Playoffs: 4%.
Browns (1-6) Playoffs: 2%.

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NFC Playoff Picture - after week 7 (without MNF)

Division Leaders:

Falcons (6-0)... HFA 60%... Top-2 77%... Division 98%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (4-1)... HFA 12%... Top-2 28%... Division 40%... Playoffs 65%.
49ers (5-2)... HFA 7%... Top-2 25%... Division 57%... Playoffs 70%.
Giants (5-2)... HFA 5%... Top-2 14%... Division 33%... Playoffs 55%.

Wild-Cards:

Vikings (5-2) (Even with CHI)... HFA 6%... Top-2 18%... Division 31%... Playoffs 56%.
Packers (4-3) (1 behind CHI)... HFA 2%... Top-2 9%... Division 23%... Playoffs 48%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cowboys (3-3) (1.5 behind NYG)... HFA 2%... Top-2 7%... Division 30%... Playoffs 43%.
Seahawks (4-3) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 6%... Division 16%... Playoffs 38%.
Eagles (3-3) (1.5 behind NYG)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 22%... Playoffs 33%.
Cardinals (4-3) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 17%... Playoffs 30%.
Redskins (3-4) (2 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 14%... Playoffs 26%.
Rams (3-4) (2 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 9%... Playoffs 17%.
Lions (2-3) (2 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 5%... Playoffs 15%.

All-but-eliminated:

Saints (2-4) Playoffs: 2%.
Buccs (2-4) Playoffs: 2%.
Panthers (1-5) Playoffs: 1%.

The Pencil Neck
10-22-2012, 03:08 PM
Great stuff. Interesting picture.

I can't get my head around counting the Saints out this early in the season.

jaayteetx
10-22-2012, 03:20 PM
Great stuff. Interesting picture.

I can't get my head around counting the Saints out this early in the season.

I can! Return of the Aints! Annoying fans.

Playoffs
10-22-2012, 04:48 PM
Here's a Playoffs Scenario Generator (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario). You can choose different ways to value teams from the dropdown menu in lower right corner. It's limited in choices, but fun to play around with...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Norg
10-23-2012, 01:59 AM
hopefully we get the number 1 seed that way we might take on a WC team in the div round if one makes it like the bengles or colts

wouldnt that be crazy if we played the colts in the Div round a AFC South showdown

SCOTTexans
10-23-2012, 04:22 PM
Here's a Playoffs Scenario Generator (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario). You can choose different ways to value teams from the dropdown menu in lower right corner. It's limited in choices, but fun to play around with...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Every scenario in the set wins by drop down has the Texans with the #1 or #2 seed....

except for the Yahoo team ranker which has use going 6-10 for this yr.... What the??? :bat:

TexanSam
10-23-2012, 04:39 PM
Every scenario in the set wins by drop down has the Texans with the #1 or #2 seed....

except for the Yahoo team ranker which has use going 6-10 for this yr.... What the??? :bat:

Who made the Yahoo team ranker? Using that the AFC seeds are 1)Bills 2)Bengals 3)Colts 4)Denver 5)Browns 6)Dolphins

WTF?

And why does it start in Week 13?

brakos82
10-23-2012, 04:47 PM
Who made the Yahoo team ranker? Using that the AFC seeds are 1)Bills 2)Bengals 3)Colts 4)Denver 5)Browns 6)Dolphins

WTF?

And why does it start in Week 13?

I'm guessing they got the W-L predictions mixed up. Yahoo's full of yahoos. :kitten:

Norg
10-25-2012, 06:32 PM
messin around with it Very High chance we play San deigo in the div round

even higher chance we will see NE in either the Div round or AFC Champ game either way i think we will see NE

best case is if Miami ballz out and we see them in the div round also if denver balls out we will be seeing Denver in the AFC champ game


hopefully everything will be at home tho Crosses fingers

isnt it kinda funny tho

Miami
Denver
Ravens

3 teams we might see again we blew all of them out ..???? they will be harder next time around if we play them again

brakos82
10-29-2012, 11:52 AM
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 8

Division Leaders:

Texans (6-1)... HFA 56%... Top-2 72%... Division 85%... Playoffs 96%.
Ravens (5-2)... HFA 15%... Top-2 38%... Division 63%... Playoffs 79%.
Patriots (5-3)... HFA 10%... Top-2 24%... Division 54%... Playoffs 70%.
Broncos (4-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 26%... Division 69%... Playoffs 80%.

Wild-Cards:

Dolphins (4-3) (0.5 behind NE)... HFA 3%... Top-2 13%... Division 33%... Playoffs 53%.
Steelers (4-3) (1 behind BAL)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 32%... Playoffs 51%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Colts (4-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 4%... Top-2 8%... Division 13%... Playoffs 42%.
Raiders (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 16%... Playoffs 34%.
Chargers (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 12%... Playoffs 28%.
NY Jets (3-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 7%... Playoffs 18%.
Bills (3-4) (1.5 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 15%.
Bengals (3-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 15%.
Titans (3-5) (3 behind HOU)... Top-2 <1%... Division 2%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Browns (2-6) Playoffs: 3%.
Jaguars (1-5) Playoffs: 2%.
Chiefs (1-5) Playoffs: 1%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 8 (without MNF)

Division Leaders:

Falcons (7-0)... HFA 71%... Top-2 88%... Division 99%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (6-1)... HFA 12%... Top-2 36%... Division 55%... Playoffs 79%.
Giants (6-2)... HFA 7%... Top-2 23%... Division 56%... Playoffs 77%.
49ers (5-2)... HFA 6%... Top-2 27%... Division 66%... Playoffs 77%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (5-3) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 25%... Playoffs 56%.
Vikings (5-3) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA 1%... Top-2 6%... Division 17%... Playoffs 37%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cardinals (4-3) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 19%... Playoffs 34%.
Eagles (3-4) (2.5 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 19%... Playoffs 32%.
Cowboys (3-4) (2.5 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 15%... Playoffs 30%.
Seahawks (4-4) (1.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 27%.
Redskins (3-5) (3 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 18%.
Lions (2-3) (2 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 15%.
Rams (3-5) (2.5 behind SF)... Top-2 <1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 11%.

All-but-eliminated:

Buccs (3-4) Playoffs: 7%.
Saints (2-5) Playoffs: 1%.
Panthers (1-6) Playoffs: <1%.

TexanSam
10-29-2012, 12:00 PM
Colts/Dolphins game next week is going to be interesting

brakos82
10-29-2012, 01:57 PM
Colts/Dolphins game next week is going to be interesting
Yeah, 20% swing in playoff chances for both teams.

Tailgate
10-29-2012, 08:47 PM
96% chance of making the playoffs. Sweeeeeeet.

BullBlitz
10-29-2012, 08:59 PM
Thanks for the post.

Cerberus
10-31-2012, 09:57 AM
AFC Playoff Picture - after week 8

Division Leaders:

Texans (6-1)... HFA 56%... Top-2 72%... Division 85%... Playoffs 96%.
Ravens (5-2)... HFA 15%... Top-2 38%... Division 63%... Playoffs 79%.
Patriots (5-3)... HFA 10%... Top-2 24%... Division 54%... Playoffs 70%.
Broncos (4-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 26%... Division 69%... Playoffs 80%.

Wild-Cards:

Dolphins (4-3) (0.5 behind NE)... HFA 3%... Top-2 13%... Division 33%... Playoffs 53%.
Steelers (4-3) (1 behind BAL)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 32%... Playoffs 51%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Colts (4-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 4%... Top-2 8%... Division 13%... Playoffs 42%.
Raiders (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 4%... Division 16%... Playoffs 34%.
Chargers (3-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA 1%... Top-2 3%... Division 12%... Playoffs 28%.
NY Jets (3-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 7%... Playoffs 18%.
Bills (3-4) (1.5 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 15%.
Bengals (3-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 15%.
Titans (3-5) (3 behind HOU)... Top-2 <1%... Division 2%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Browns (2-6) Playoffs: 3%.
Jaguars (1-5) Playoffs: 2%.
Chiefs (1-5) Playoffs: 1%.



Where are you getting this information? I find it interesting. Is it based on Vegas odds-makers take on things, or is it computer generated? Just curious.

brakos82
10-31-2012, 11:18 AM
Where are you getting this information? I find it interesting. Is it based on Vegas odds-makers take on things, or is it computer generated? Just curious.
Computer-generated. Mostly based on W-L and tiebreakers, but SOS is also a factor as well.

brakos82
11-05-2012, 05:41 PM
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 9

Division Leaders:

Texans (7-1)... HFA 57%... Top-2 73%... Division 86%... Playoffs 98%.*
Ravens (6-2)... HFA 16%... Top-2 41%... Division 62%... Playoffs 86%.
Broncos (5-3)... HFA 9%... Top-2 34%... Division 86%... Playoffs 91%.**
Patriots (5-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 20%... Division 63%... Playoffs 72%.

Wild-Cards:

Steelers (5-3) (1 behind BAL)... HFA 4%... Top-2 16%... Division 37%... Playoffs 71%.
Colts (5-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 5%... Top-2 10%... Division 15%... Playoffs 55%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Dolphins (4-4) (1 behind NE)... HFA <1%... Top-2 3%... Division 24%... Playoffs 38%.
Chargers (4-4) (1 behind DEN)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 28%.
NY Jets (3-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 19%.
Raiders (3-5) (2 behind DEN)... Top-2 <1%... Division 5%... Playoffs 17%.
Bills (3-5) (1.5 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 5%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Bengals (3-5) Playoffs: 6%.
Titans (3-6) Playoffs: 5%.
Browns (2-6) Playoffs: <1%.
Chiefs (1-7) Playoffs: <1%.
Jaguars (1-7) Playoffs: <1%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 9 (without MNF)

Division Leaders:

Falcons (8-0)... HFA 75%... Top-2 92%... Division 99%... Playoffs >99%.
Bears (7-1)... HFA 14%... Top-2 44%... Division 63%... Playoffs 90%.
49ers (6-2)... HFA 7%... Top-2 38%... Division 84%... Playoffs 90%.
Giants (6-3)... HFA 2%... Top-2 10%... Division 37%... Playoffs 67%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (6-3) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA 2%... Top-2 11%... Division 27%... Playoffs 69%.
Seahawks (5-4) (1.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 41%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Eagles (3-4) (2 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 27%... Playoffs 35%.
Cowboys (3-5) (2.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 22%... Playoffs 33%.**
Vikings (5-4) (2.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 6%... Playoffs 21%.*
Lions (4-4) (3 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 19%.*
Buccs (4-4) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 11%.

All-but-eliminated:

Rams (3-5) Playoffs: 9%.
Cardinals (4-5) Playoffs: 8%.
Redskins (3-6) Playoffs: 5%.
Panthers (2-6) Playoffs: 1%.
Saints (2-5) Playoffs: 1%.

brakos82
11-12-2012, 11:21 AM
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Monday Night game tonight

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 10

Division Leaders:

Texans (8-1)... HFA 72%... Top-2 85%... Division 91%... Playoffs >99%.
Ravens (7-2)... HFA 11%... Top-2 45%... Division 70%... Playoffs 93%.*
Patriots (6-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 20%... Division 83%... Playoffs 87%.
Broncos (6-3)... HFA 5%... Top-2 36%... Division 95%... Playoffs 97%.


Wild-Cards:

Steelers (5-3) (1.5 behind BAL)... HFA 1%... Top-2 10%... Division 31%... Playoffs 72%.#
Colts (6-3) (2 behind HOU)... HFA 3%... Top-2 6%... Division 9%... Playoffs 65%.*

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Chargers (4-5) (2 behind DEN)... Top-2 <1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 19%.
Dolphins (4-5) (2 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 13%... Playoffs 18%.
Titans (4-6) (4.5 behind HOU)... Division <1%... Playoffs 12%.
Bengals (4-5) (3 behind BAL)... Division 1%... Playoffs 11%.
NY Jets (3-6) (3 behind NE)... Division 3%... Playoffs 10%.

All-but-eliminated:

Raiders (3-5) Playoffs: 8%.**
Bills (3-5) Playoffs: 8%.
Browns (2-7) Playoffs: <1%.
Chiefs (1-7) Playoffs: <1%.#
Jaguars (1-8) Playoffs: <1%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 10

Division Leaders:

Falcons (8-1)... HFA 64%... Top-2 87%... Division 96%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (7-2)... HFA 18%... Top-2 40%... Division 53%... Playoffs 84%.
49ers (6-2-1)... HFA 8%... Top-2 31%... Division 67%... Playoffs 83%.
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 6%... Division 38%... Playoffs 55%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (6-3) (1 behind CHI)... HFA 7%... Top-2 21%... Division 35%... Playoffs 72%.
Seahawks (6-4) (1 behind SF)... HFA 1%... Top-2 8%... Division 26%... Playoffs 55%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cowboys (4-5) (1.5 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 47%... Playoffs 53%.**
Vikings (6-4) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 26%.
Buccs (5-4) (3 behind ATL)... Top 2 1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 19%.
Redskins (3-6) (2.5 behind NYG)... Divsion 8%... Playoffs 10%.
Saints (4-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 10%.

All-but-eliminated:

Rams (3-5-1) Playoffs: 9%.
Cardinals (4-5) Playoffs: 8%.
Lions (4-4) Playoffs: 8%.*
Eagles (3-5) Playoffs: 7%.
Panthers (2-6) Playoffs: <1%.

Fili
11-12-2012, 06:47 PM
Ravens (7-2)... HFA 11%... Top-2 45%... Division 70%... Playoffs 93%.*


Hardest remaining schedule in the conference. I guess that might tie up a first round bye.

TexanSam
11-13-2012, 08:37 AM
Broncos vs Colts in the wild card round would be very interesting.

Texn4life
11-13-2012, 10:42 AM
Broncos vs Colts in the wild card round would be very interesting.

I think the Broncos will end up with the 2 seed when its all said and done.

brakos82
11-19-2012, 11:26 AM
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Monday Night game tonight

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 11

Division Leaders:

Texans (9-1)... HFA 70%... Top-2 85%... Division 95%... Playoffs >99%.* - Can clinch playoff berth with HOU, NE, SEA, JAX, CLE wins.
Ravens (8-2)... HFA 16%... Top-2 55%... Division 90%... Playoffs 99%.
Patriots (7-3)... HFA 9%... Top-2 24%... Division 92%... Playoffs 95%.
Broncos (7-3)... HFA 5%... Top-2 33%... Division 99%... Playoffs >99%.


Wild-Cards:

Steelers (6-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 31%... Playoffs 69%.
Colts (6-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 58%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (5-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 17%.
Jets (4-6) (3 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 16%.
Chargers (4-6) (3 behind DEN)... Division <1%... Playoffs 14%.
Bills (4-6) (3 behind NE)... Division 1%... Playoffs 12%.
Titans (4-6) (5 behind HOU)... Division <1%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Dolphins (4-6) Playoffs: 6%.
Raiders (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.**
Browns (2-8) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race
Chiefs (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - can be eliminated from playoffs with DEN and either TEN or IND wins.
Jaguars (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and IND wins, and one of PIT, CIN, SD wins.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 11

Division Leaders:

Falcons (9-1)... HFA 69%... Top-2 90%... Division 96%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (7-2)... HFA 15%... Top-2 37%... Division 47%... Playoffs 84%.#
49ers (6-2-1)... HFA 6%... Top-2 28%... Division 69%... Playoffs 84%.#
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 37%... Playoffs 53%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (7-3) (0.5 behind CHI)... HFA 8%... Top-2 28%... Division 45%... Playoffs 84%.
Cowboys (5-5) (1 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 53%... Playoffs 58%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Seahawks (6-4) (1 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 7%... Division 26%... Playoffs 55%.
Buccs (6-4) (3 behind ATL)... HFA <1%... Top 2 1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 27%.
Vikings (6-4) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 8%... Playoffs 22%.*
Saints (5-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 15%.
Redskins (4-6) (2 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Divsion 10%... Playoffs 12%.

All-but-eliminated:

Cardinals (4-6) Playoffs: 4%.
Rams (3-6-1) Playoffs: 2%.
Eagles (3-7) Playoffs: 2%.
Lions (4-6) Playoffs: 1%.*
Panthers (2-8) Playoffs: <1%.** - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and CHI, MIN wins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 Draft Order

Percentages are odds of getting that draft pick or higher. Does not account for trades. Teams shown are top-5 >25%.

Chiefs (1-9) - #1 54%... Top-3 87%... Top-5 96%.
Jaguars (1-9) - #1 27%... Top-3 75%... Top-5 89%.
Browns (2-8) - #1 10%... Top-3 47%... Top-5 72%.
Panthers (2-8) - #1 5%... Top-3 33%... Top-5 58%.
Eagles (3-7) - #1 1%... Top-3 15%... Top-5 37%.
Rams (3-6-1) - #1 <1%... Top-3 9%... Top-5 30%.
Raiders (3-7) - #1 2%... Top-3 17%... Top-5 36%.

The Pencil Neck
11-19-2012, 11:38 AM
Shouldn't you wait until Tuesday to do this? I mean, I appreciate it and look forward to it but it seems like you could more accurate numbers after all the week's games have been played.

brakos82
11-19-2012, 11:39 AM
Shouldn't you wait until Tuesday to do this? I mean, I appreciate it and look forward to it but it seems like you could more accurate numbers after all the week's games have been played.
Eh, I'm impatient.

And the season's still young... I'll probably start updating on Friday, Monday and Tuesday once things get down to the wire.

thunderkyss
11-19-2012, 12:01 PM
I think the Broncos will end up with the 2 seed when its all said and done.

The 8-2 Ravens (current 2nd seed) still have games against the Steelers, Redskins, Giants, Bengals & Broncos.

The 6-3 Broncos still have games against the Ravens.

You may very well be right. But the Patriots have games against the Texans & 49ers. So it'll be a fight to the wire.

Exascor
11-20-2012, 12:59 PM
The current playoff picture has 2 games with interesting stories. I doubt this will last but:
Colts @ Broncos - Manning vs his replacement
Seahawks @ Packers - Inaccurate Reception v 2.0

brakos82
11-20-2012, 05:11 PM
Some shuffling in the NFC picture after last night, with % changes in parenthesis.

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 11 MNF included

Division Leaders:

Falcons (9-1)... HFA 74% (+5)... Top-2 89% (-1)... Division 96%... Playoffs 99%.
49ers (7-2-1)... HFA 10% (+4)... Top-2 44% (+16)... Division 81% (+12)... Playoffs 93% (+9).
Packers (7-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 39% (+11)... Division 63% (+18)... Playoffs 84%.
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 37%... Playoffs 53%.

Wild-Cards:

Bears (7-3) (even with GB)... HFA 6% (-9)... Top-2 22% (-15)... Division 37% (-10)... Playoffs 76% (-8).
Cowboys (5-5) (1 behind NYG)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 53%... Playoffs 58%.

brakos82
11-23-2012, 02:32 AM
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Played Thanksgiving game

AFC Playoff Picture - after thanksgiving games

Division Leaders:

Texans (10-1)... HFA 74%... Top-2 88%... Division 96%... Playoffs >99%.*# - Can clinch playoff berth with SEA, JAX, CLE wins... or SEA, JAX, BAL, OAK wins.
Ravens (8-2)... HFA 12%... Top-2 51%... Division 89%... Playoffs 99%.
Patriots (8-3)#... HFA 11%... Top-2 29%... Division 97%... Playoffs 99%.
Broncos (7-3)... HFA 3%... Top-2 30%... Division 99%... Playoffs >99%.


Wild-Cards:

Steelers (6-4) (2 behind BAL)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 11%... Playoffs 71%.
Colts (6-4) (3.5 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 59%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (5-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 19%.
Chargers (4-6) (3 behind DEN)... Division <1%... Playoffs 14%.
Bills (4-6) (3.5 behind NE)... Division <1%... Playoffs 13%.
Titans (4-6) (5.5 behind HOU)... Division <1%... Playoffs 13%.

All-but-eliminated:

Jets (4-7)# Playoffs: 7%.
Dolphins (4-6) Playoffs: 6%.
Raiders (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.**
Browns (2-8) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race
Chiefs (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and either TEN or IND wins, or a couple of other options. (does it really matter?)
Jaguars (1-9) Playoffs: <1%. - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and IND wins, and one of PIT, CIN, SD wins.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after thanksgiving games

Division Leaders:

Falcons (9-1)... HFA 74%... Top-2 89%... Division 95%... Playoffs 99%.
49ers (7-2-1)... HFA 10%... Top-2 44%... Division 82%... Playoffs 94%.
Packers (7-3)... HFA 8%... Top-2 39%... Division 65%... Playoffs 85%.
Giants (6-4)... HFA 1%... Top-2 5%... Division 49%... Playoffs 56%.

Wild-Cards:

Bears (7-3) (even with GB)... HFA 6%... Top-2 22%... Division 36%... Playoffs 77%.
Seahawks (6-4) (1.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 7%... Division 17%... Playoffs 54%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Redskins (5-6)# (1.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Divsion 25%... Playoffs 29%.
Cowboys (5-6)# (1.5 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 24%... Playoffs 28%.
Buccs (6-4) (3 behind ATL)... HFA <1%... Top 2 1%... Division 3%... Playoffs 28%.
Vikings (6-4) (1.5 behind CHI)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 10%... Playoffs 25%.*
Saints (5-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 16%.

All-but-eliminated:

Cardinals (4-6) Playoffs: 4%.
Eagles (3-7) Playoffs: 3%.
Rams (3-6-1) Playoffs: 1%.
Lions (4-7)# Playoffs: 1%.
Panthers (2-8) Playoffs: <1%.** - eliminated from division race, can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and SEA, MIN wins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 Draft Order

Percentages are odds of getting that draft pick or higher. Does not account for trades. Teams shown are top-5 >25%.

Chiefs (1-9) - #1 53%... Top-3 87%... Top-5 97%.
Jaguars (1-9) - #1 27%... Top-3 77%... Top-5 90%.
Browns (2-8) - #1 11%... Top-3 49%... Top-5 74%.
Panthers (2-8) - #1 6%... Top-3 34%... Top-5 60%.
Eagles (3-7) - #1 1%... Top-3 15%... Top-5 37%.
Rams (3-6-1) - #1 <1%... Top-3 9%... Top-5 32%.
Raiders (3-7) - #1 2%... Top-3 18%... Top-5 38%.

brakos82
11-26-2012, 01:11 PM
Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Plays Monday Night

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Texans (10-1)... HFA 76%... Top-2 88%... Division 95%... Playoffs >99%.
- Can clinch playoffs with win over TEN, or NE win, or SD and BAL wins.
Ravens (9-2)... HFA 13%... Top-2 60%... Division 97%... Playoffs >99%.*
- Can clinch playoffs with win over PIT.
- Can clinch division with win and Bengals loss.
Patriots (8-3)... HFA 7%... Top-2 21%... Division 97%... Playoffs 99%.
- Can clinch division with win over MIA.
Broncos (8-3)... HFA 3%... Top-2 28%... Division >99%... Playoffs >99%.
- Can clinch division with win over TB, or CIN win.

Wild-Cards:

Colts (7-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 83%.
Steelers (6-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 49%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (6-5) (3 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 1%... Playoffs 33%.
Dolphins (5-6) (3 behind NE)... Top-2 <1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 10%.

Close to elimination:

Chargers (4-7) Playoffs: 9%.
Jets (4-7) Playoffs: 8%.
Bills (4-7) Playoffs: 6%.
Titans (4-7) Playoffs: 3%.
Raiders (3-8) Playoffs: 1%.**
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to CLE and IND, CIN, PIT wins.
Browns (3-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to OAK and IND, CIN, PIT wins.
Jaguars (2-9) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to BUF, or IND, CIN, PIT wins.

Eliminated:

Chiefs (1-10)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Falcons (10-1)... HFA 86%... Top-2 95%... Division >99%... Playoffs >99%.
- Can clinch playoffs with win over NO and CHI win.
- Can clinch division with win over NO and DEN win.
49ers (8-2-1)... HFA 8%... Top-2 58%... Division 95%... Playoffs 99%.
Bears (8-3)... HFA 5%... Top-2 30%... Division 58%... Playoffs 93%.
Giants (7-4)... HFA <1%... Top-2 4%... Division 63%... Playoffs 79%.

Wild-Cards:

Packers (7-4) (1 behind CHI)... HFA 1%... Top-2 10%... Division 38%... Playoffs 82%.
Seahawks (6-5) (2.5 behind SF)... HFA <1%... Top-2 1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 41%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Cowboys (5-6) (2 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Division 18%... Playoffs 28%.
Redskins (5-6) (2 behind NYG)... Top-2 <1%... Divsion 17%... Playoffs 25%.
Vikings (6-5) (2 behind CHI)... Top-2 <1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 19%.*
Buccs (6-5) (4 behind ATL)... Division <1%... Playoffs 19%.

Close to elimination:

Saints (5-6) Playoffs: 7%.
Rams (4-6-1) Playoffs: 4%.
Eagles (3-7) Playoffs: 2%.#
Cardinals (4-7) Playoffs: 1%.
Lions (4-7) Playoffs: 1%.
Panthers (2-8) Playoffs: <1%.#**
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss to PHI and: loss to KC, or NO, or NYJ, or MIN wins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013 Draft Order

Percentages are odds of getting that draft pick or higher. Does not account for trades. Teams shown are top-5 >25%.

Chiefs (1-10) - #1 77%... Top-3 96%... Top-5 99%.
Jaguars (2-9) - #1 8%... Top-3 64%... Top-5 81%.
Panthers (2-8) - #1 7%... Top-3 44%... Top-5 65%.
Browns (3-8) - #1 2%... Top-3 24%... Top-5 49%.
Eagles (3-7) - #1 1%... Top-3 20%... Top-5 42%.
Raiders (3-8) - #1 2%... Top-3 18%... Top-5 38%.

Corrosion
11-26-2012, 02:47 PM
Here's how I think it ends up ....


AFC -

1 Houston
2 Baltimore
3 Denver
4 New England
5 Cincy
6 Indy

Steelers just cant hang on without Ben .... Cincy will move up and take that spot. 5-6 spots to be determined - Houston playing Indy twice in the last three weeks , those games may or may not factor in.


NFC

1 Falcons
2 49ers
3 Bears
4 Giants
5 Packers
6 Seabirds


Could see the Seahawks getting passed by the Buc's .... Thats the only change I can see realistically happening in this conference.

gwallaia
11-26-2012, 02:47 PM
I see the first round of the AFC Playoffs looking like this.

Bengals @ Patriots
Colts @ Broncos

I see the 2nd round going like this

Patriots @ Ravens
Broncos @ Texans

Corrosion
11-26-2012, 03:26 PM
I see the first round of the AFC Playoffs looking like this.

Bengals @ Patriots
Colts @ Broncos

I see the 2nd round going like this

Patriots @ Ravens
Broncos @ Texans

So you have the Pats finishing with a better "seed" than the Bronco's ?


I see it the opposite as the Bronco's have an easier road to hoe to finish the regular season with Tampa Bay , Baltimore , Oakland , KC and Cleveland.


The Pats get Miami twice (they are no punk and division rivals), Houston , San Francisco and the Jaq's.

The Bronco's have 3 games they should win just by showing up .... the Pats only 1 considering the two division games Vs the Fish.


Flip those second round matchups with NE @ Houston and Denver @ Baltimore .... being the only consequence.

gwallaia
11-26-2012, 03:29 PM
You could very well be right. Either way, looks like the Texans will be facing great QBs.

Corrosion
11-26-2012, 07:39 PM
. Either way, looks like the Texans will be facing great QBs.

Brady or Manning , pick your poison .... ugh. :cool:

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 08:27 PM
You could very well be right. Either way, looks like the Texans will be facing great QBs.

Psshh!!! We've got a great QB of our own. Plus a great RB & a great defense.

:koolaid:

BullBlitz
11-26-2012, 08:39 PM
Brady or Manning , pick your poison .... ugh. :cool:

I hope the seeding falls such that we get to play them both. THAT would be awesome.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 09:00 PM
I hope the seeding falls such that we get to play them both. THAT would be awesome.


Awesome like the clap.

I'd rather spank Flacco again before playing both Manning & Brady. Or better yet, serve up Flacco & Luck, bypassing Manning & Brady all together.

BullBlitz
11-26-2012, 09:42 PM
Awesome like the clap.

I'd rather spank Flacco again before playing both Manning & Brady. Or better yet, serve up Flacco & Luck, bypassing Manning & Brady all together.

To each his own. I want to see the Texans play against the best.

thunderkyss
11-26-2012, 09:46 PM
To each his own. I want to see the Texans play against the best.

We've already played Manning once. We'll play Brady in 2 weeks.

No sense tempting fate

Norg
11-27-2012, 01:56 AM
there is aVERYYYYYY good chance the texans play the Ravens div round UNLESS some how the colts beat the ravens then we will play the COLTS div round


how would yall like that playing the colts 3 times when we let them inthe playoffs

brakos82
12-02-2012, 10:49 PM
Half of the AFC teams have been determined... will post NFC's status after Monday Night Football.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Percentages are odds of earning that playoff position or better.
Please note this list is NOT sorted by "if playoffs started today", this is based on the odds of each team earning a playoff spot.

Controls Destiny for this spot
Does Not Control Destiny, but still alive
* Hardest remaining schedule in conference
** Easiest remaining schedule in conference
# Plays Monday Night

AFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Texans (11-1)... HFA 80%... Top-2 92%... Division 94%... Playoffs 100%. (next week: @NE)
- Clinched playoff berth.
- Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.
- Can clinch #1 seed with HOU, TEN, WAS, and OAK wins.
Patriots (9-3)... HFA 15%... Top-2 37%... Division 100%. (next week: HOU)
- Clinched division.
Ravens (9-3)... HFA 2%... Top-2 35%... Division 94%... Playoffs 99%.
- Can clinch playoffs with win, or SD and DAL wins
- Can clinch division with win and SD, DAL wins
Broncos (9-3)... HFA 2%... Top-2 34%... Division 100%.
- Clinched division.

Wild-Cards:

Colts (8-4) (3 behind HOU)... HFA <1%... Top-2 2%... Division 5%... Playoffs 89%.
Steelers (7-5) (2 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 8%... Playoffs 70%.

In the Hunt (Playoff odds >10%):

Bengals (7-5) (2 behind BAL)... Top-2 <1%... Division 4%... Playoffs 33%.

Close to elimination:

Jets (5-7) Playoffs: 4%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and IND win.
Bills (5-7) Playoffs: 2%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and PIT, CIN, IND wins.
Dolphins (5-7) Playoffs: 1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss and PIT, CIN, IND wins.
Chargers (4-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss.
Titans (4-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss.
Browns (4-8) Playoffs: <1%.
- Can be eliminated from playoffs with loss, or PIT, CIN, IND wins.

Eliminated:

Raiders (3-9)
Chiefs (2-10)
Jaguars (2-10)

thunderkyss
12-02-2012, 11:37 PM
AFC Playoff Picture - after week 12

Division Leaders:

Texans (11-1)... HFA 80%... Top-2 92%... Division 94%... Playoffs 100%. (next week: @NE)
- Clinched playoff berth.
- Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.
- Can clinch #1 seed with HOU, TEN, WAS, and OAK wins.


How does a Tennessee win vs the Colts help us clinch a first round bye? We'll win the division, but that doesn't mean a bye.

Farough
12-03-2012, 01:31 AM
We would end up with tie breaker over every division leader if we beat New England coming up. Which means they would all need to have one more win then Houston to jump them. Doesn't ensure they get a bye but very close to it.

Speedy
12-03-2012, 01:46 AM
How does a Tennessee win vs the Colts help us clinch a first round bye? We'll win the division, but that doesn't mean a bye.

Ravens and Denver play each other in 2 weeks. One of those teams will lose guaranteeing they can't have a better record than Houston. The Texans could do no worse than the 2 seed.

ChampionTexan
12-03-2012, 01:53 AM
Ravens and Denver play each other in 2 weeks. One of those teams will lose guaranteeing they can't have a better record than Houston. The Texans could do no worse than the 2 seed.

Or put another way, because Indianapolis still has a very small chance of winning the division, and getting a first round bye.

thunderkyss
12-03-2012, 08:02 AM
Or put another way, because Indianapolis still has a very small chance of winning the division, and getting a first round bye.

If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?

Stemp
12-03-2012, 09:41 AM
If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?

yes, which is why we need one more win and a loss by them to clinch the division.

Exascor
12-03-2012, 10:01 AM
If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?They wouldn't get the BYE but yeah they'd win the division. They'd need a lot of help from the other 3 division winners to get the bye.

thunderkyss
12-03-2012, 10:09 AM
They wouldn't get the BYE but yeah they'd win the division. They'd need a lot of help from the other 3 division winners to get the bye.

So that puts us back to How does a Titans win over Indy help us clinch the bye?


Texans (11-1)... HFA 80%... Top-2 92%... Division 94%... Playoffs 100%. (next week: @NE)
- Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.

ChampionTexan
12-03-2012, 11:01 AM
If the Colts lose next week & win out, they'll finish 11-5

If that happens & we also lose out to finish 11-5 wouldn't they win the division & the bye since they beat us twice?

The scenario you questioned included a Texans victory as well as the Colt loss. If that happens, the worst the Texans can do would be 12-4. But see there - you've now indirectly answered your own original question about why a Titan win over Indy would help us clinch a first round bye.

thunderkyss
12-03-2012, 11:07 AM
The scenario you questioned included a Texans victory as well as the Colt loss. If that happens, the worst the Texans can do would be 12-4. But see there - you've now indirectly answered your own original question about why a Titan win over Indy would help us clinch a first round bye.

So we can lose 3 games of the next 4 and still get a bye as long as the Titans beat the Colts next week?

Interesting.

ChampionTexan
12-03-2012, 11:14 AM
So we can lose 3 games of the next 4 and still get a bye as long as the Titans beat the Colts next week?

Interesting.

Yes, if the one game we win is against New England, and the Broncos and the Ravens each lose at least one more game. Is it me, or are you sounding kind of skeptical about the accuracy of this?

Exascor
12-03-2012, 11:17 AM
So that puts us back to How does a Titans win over Indy help us clinch the bye?Well...if we win @ NE and the Titans beat the Colts, The Texans are 12-1 & the Colts are 8-5. The Ravens & Broncos play each other so both can't win out and The Texans own the tiebreakers.

In that scenario:
Pats best finish 12-4
Texans worst finish 12-4
Ravens best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Broncos
Broncos best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Ravens
Colts best finish is 11-5

Edited: Texans would hold the tiebreaker over ALL the division winners and would clinch the division so they get the bye. They would still need another win or another loss by the winner of the Ravens/Broncos game to get HFA.

Speedy
12-03-2012, 11:49 AM
Can clinch first-round bye with win and TEN win.

With a Texans WIN over New England AND a Tennessee win over the Colts. I think you missed that Texans win part.

TEN beats the Colts and the Colts have 5 losses. Houston beats NE, Hou can't lose 5 games. Division title. Baltimore and Denver play each other in 2 weeks. One of those teams loses and therefore would not be able to best Houston because Houston would have beaten them both.

thunderkyss
12-03-2012, 12:39 PM
Well...if we win @ NE and the Titans beat the Colts, The Texans are 12-1 & the Colts are 8-5. The Ravens & Broncos play each other so both can't win out and The Texans own the tiebreakers.

In that scenario:
Pats best finish 12-4
Texans worst finish 12-4
Ravens best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Broncos
Broncos best finish either 13-3 or 12-4 - pending game vs Ravens
Colts best finish is 11-5

Edited: Texans would hold the tiebreaker over ALL the division winners and would clinch the division so they get the bye. They would still need another win or another loss by the winner of the Ravens/Broncos game to get HFA.

Ok, thanks for being patient with me guys. I just wasn't putting it all together. Only one of the Broncos or Ravens can finish with a better record & we hold the tie breaker over the others, making us at worse the #2 seed. That's what I wasn't getting.

The Titans win over the Colts gives them 5 losses & the most we could have (if we beat the Pats) is 4.

Got it.

Thanks again.

ObsiWan
12-03-2012, 11:11 PM
owww
:headhurts:

Speedy
12-03-2012, 11:27 PM
OK, doing the math, I don't think the Texans can clinch a bye next week, unless Bal or Den loses too. If Denver and the Ravens tie when they play each other, they could both finish with better records than the Texans.

Texans beat NE and Denver and Bal both win next week:

Hou 12-1
Bal 10-3
Den 10-3
NE 9-4

Week 15 - Hou loss, Den/Bal tie, NE win

Hou 12-2
Bal 10-3-1
Den 10-3-1
NE 10-4

Week 16 - Hou loss, Den, Bal, NE win

Hou 12-3
Bal 11-3-1
Den 11-3-1
NE 11-4

Week 17 - Hou loss, Den, Bal, NE win

Bal 12-3-1
Den 12-3-1
Hou 12-4
NE 12-4

So for the Texans to clinch a bye this weekend they must beat NE, Ten over Indy, and Bal or Den has to lose.

ChampionTexan
12-04-2012, 12:11 AM
So for the Texans to clinch a bye this weekend they must beat NE, Ten over Indy, and Bal or Den has to lose.

Almost right except to clinch this weekend, both Bal and Den have to lose (we've actually been discussing this since post #41.

thunderkyss
12-04-2012, 12:20 AM
Almost right except to clinch this weekend, both Bal and Den have to lose (we've actually been discussing this since post #41.

For HFA they both have to lose. For the bye one will suffice.

ChampionTexan
12-04-2012, 01:46 AM
For HFA they both have to lose. For the bye one will suffice.

Yeah - I missed him saying bye and went to HFA througout. My bad.