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View Full Version : Early Line: Houston -6.5 over Baltimore


MojoMan
10-16-2012, 04:50 PM
The Texans are 6.5 point favorites against the Ravens at Reliant on Sunday.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/nfl.aspx

Will the Texans not only win, but cover the spread? Personally, I believe they will.

What do you think?

NastyNate
10-16-2012, 04:53 PM
It opened at -4, which was a gift, and then was bet up to -7.5 on 5dimes. I'd take the points if I were wagering this game, but Houston SU moneyline.

Thorn
10-16-2012, 05:20 PM
meh.....the Texans are more than capable of covering this spread. It's just whether or not their frigging heads are in the game Sunday. If I was actually gambling, which I don't do, I would take the points and the Texans. I think the Texans will be looking for some payback this Sunday.

Playoffs
10-16-2012, 05:42 PM
Lay the points.

rolyat93
10-16-2012, 06:03 PM
Texans will win by 13. 27-14

BlackFizz
10-16-2012, 06:03 PM
The Texans are 6.5 point favorites against the Ravens at Reliant on Sunday.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/nfl.aspx

Will the Texans not only win, but cover the spread? Personally, I believe they will.

What do you think?

points too risky either way, but lack of pass rush from both teams and injuries to both secondaries scream for the over (48)

7 td's in this game will be a gimme. Play it safe and take the over

TheIronDuke
10-16-2012, 06:06 PM
I think the Ravens will win this one outright, surprised we are favored.

Corrosion
10-16-2012, 07:29 PM
Id have to take the points .... think this one will be close.


Do think the over is a layup.

drs23
10-16-2012, 07:41 PM
It opened at -4, which was a gift, and then was bet up to -7.5 on 5dimes. I'd take the points if I were wagering this game, but Houston SU moneyline.

Pardon my ignorance, but what does SU moneyline mean?

76Texan
10-16-2012, 07:50 PM
Pardon my ignorance, but what does SU moneyline mean?

I don't do it, but I think it means straight up on the money line.

You pick a team to win the game straight up, but the money you win if you pick the favorite is less than the amount you place on the bet and vice versa, if you pick the dog, you win more money than the amount you place on the bet.

BullBlitz
10-16-2012, 08:50 PM
I expect the Ravens to win straight up as well. The Texans should have an advantage, because the Ravens' defense is more injured than ours.

However, Flacco looks strong, Rice is playing better than Foster and Smith is playing better than Andre. I think that the Ravens have the edge on talent, although we have home field advantage and are coming of of a humiliating loss on national TV. I hope that our players have enough pride to go out and put this game away early. But Harbaugh is a tough opponent.

NastyNate
10-16-2012, 08:55 PM
I don't do it, but I think it means straight up on the money line.

You pick a team to win the game straight up, but the money you win if you pick the favorite is less than the amount you place on the bet and vice versa, if you pick the dog, you win more money than the amount you place on the bet.

76 got me, thanks. Straight up, moneyline. 7 point teaser on the moneyline and over would be a smart play too.

Texan_Bill
10-16-2012, 09:05 PM
The Texans are 6.5 point favorites against the Ravens at Reliant on Sunday.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/nfl.aspx

Will the Texans not only win, but cover the spread? Personally, I believe they will.

What do you think?

I dunno going as far as covering the spread, but I DO think they'll win straight up!

Ravens are hurting with injuries, which I respect and yet don't feel sorry for but they're a good team and "Uni-brow" (aka Flacco) hs played fairly well this season.

My predictions and/or observations have nothing to do with our ass-whoopin' Sunday night. I kinda saw that loss coming. That said, I was a little disappointed in the effort, mistakes, stupid decision making and play calling... Other than that, I called that loss.

A win is a win!! I don't bet in Vegas so I don't care if we win in a baseball score like 3-2: A Field Goal > Safety!

I also having us winning this Sunday!

axman40
10-16-2012, 11:21 PM
I will take the Texans for the cover and the WIN!
:fans:

RTP2110
10-16-2012, 11:32 PM
I think this is a FG game either way. Ravens plus the points, or Houston moneyline, IMO.

Also, I think a 6 pt. teaser here is a steal. Bal +12.5/Over 42.5

Texn4life
10-17-2012, 12:06 AM
I don't do it, but I think it means straight up on the money line.

You pick a team to win the game straight up, but the money you win if you pick the favorite is less than the amount you place on the bet and vice versa, if you pick the dog, you win more money than the amount you place on the bet.

Pardon my ignorance, but what does SU moneyline mean?


76 has it right here, but just to kind of simplify it for you let me break it down.

Right now one site I check has the Texans -360 and the Ravens +260 for the upcoming game. Basically what that means is a better would have to place a $360 bet in order to win $100 if he wanted to bet straight up for the Texans to win. On the flip side you could place a $100 wager on the Ravens and win $260 if you wanted to take them straight up.

I know people who bet on games and only take safe underdogs and the S/U or moneyline. The Houston Cougars made me a very happy man a few years ago when they beat Oklahoma State as 17 point underdogs.

chicagotexan2
10-17-2012, 12:11 AM
I will take the Texans for the cover and the WIN!
:fans:

This proves the Texans are liberal democrats. Just kidding. I don't bet so I don't know what the hell over, under, next to, spooning or any other degenerate gambling term means but Not because I think it's wrong to gamble. It's just too rich for my blood. I'll stick with scratch offs.

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 12:19 AM
The Texans are 6.5 point favorites against the Ravens at Reliant on Sunday.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/nfl.aspx

Will the Texans not only win, but cover the spread? Personally, I believe they will.

What do you think?

First, the spread will be closer by game time. However, I believe they'll cover 6.5 if they are the team I think they are & I believe they are.

Secondly, I believe polls should be public by default.

Texn4life
10-17-2012, 12:22 AM
First, the spread will be closer by game time. However, I believe they'll cover 6.5 if they are the team I think they are & I believe they are.

Secondly, I believe polls should be public by default.

Considering it started at 4 I don't think it will change too much. The public has already dictated where Vegas thinks it should be in order for them to make money. I think at worse it may slide down to 5.5, but I see it staying around here because of the Ravens injuries.

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 12:24 AM
I expect the Ravens to win straight up as well. The Texans should have an advantage, because the Ravens' defense is more injured than ours.

However, Flacco looks strong, Rice is playing better than Foster and Smith is playing better than Andre. I think that the Ravens have the edge on talent, although we have home field advantage and are coming of of a humiliating loss on national TV. I hope that our players have enough pride to go out and put this game away early. But Harbaugh is a tough opponent.

I don't know about that. The bolded part. They may be getting better stats, but this early into the season, I don't know if you can say that to be true. Different situations, different circumstances. Over the course of the season... or at least once we can cross the half way mark, we can say who's playiing better than who, but right now I don't believe the stats are reflective of the quality of individual play.

Ravens more talented? They're starting three guys we did not want.

ArlingtonTexan
10-17-2012, 12:26 AM
I think the spread for the Texans game is too big since these are both 5-1 teams with some obvious flaws. It set to get good action for the bookies versus a reflection of the difference in teams.

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 12:41 AM
I think the spread for the Texans game is too big since these are both 5-1 teams with some obvious flaws. It set to get good action for the bookies versus a reflection of the difference in teams.

I don't think 5-1 means what you think it means. Chicago finished 8-8 last year, Buffalo finished 6-10, but I think started 5-1, or pretty close. Green Bay & New England will probably finish closer to 12-4 than 8-8.

ArlingtonTexan
10-17-2012, 02:09 AM
I don't think 5-1 means what you think it means. Chicago finished 8-8 last year, Buffalo finished 6-10, but I think started 5-1, or pretty close. Green Bay & New England will probably finish closer to 12-4 than 8-8.

Neither the Texans nor Ravens were 'surprisingly' good teams like the Bills in 2011, so bringing them up in not relevant. 6.5 points is clear favorite in NFL. Sorry, the Texans are not clearly better than the Ravens. The texans may win by more than that, but it won't be because this betting line is accurate in its portrayal of the gap between the teams.

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 08:32 AM
Neither the Texans nor Ravens were 'surprisingly' good teams like the Bills in 2011, so bringing them up in not relevant. 6.5 points is clear favorite in NFL. Sorry, the Texans are not clearly better than the Ravens. The texans may win by more than that, but it won't be because this betting line is accurate in its portrayal of the gap between the teams.

& it won't be because they are both currently 5-1

The betting line is reflective of how people feel about these two teams. For whatever reasons people have been putting their money on the Texans beating the Ravens by a touchdown or so. Using their guts, their own personal "power rankings" whatever, they set the margin where it's at.

TheIronDuke
10-17-2012, 08:39 AM
Ravens more talented? They're starting three guys we did not want.

2 maybe, not a chance Kubes wouldn't want Leach, best FB in the NFL. Just couldn't afford him.

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 08:41 AM
2 maybe, not a chance Kubes wouldn't want Leach, best FB in the NFL. Just couldn't afford him.

I think we paid Jacoby the $3M Leach was looking for, so it wasn't a matter of not being able to afford him, but not wanting to pay what he was asking. We didn't want him at that price, if that's what you mean.

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 08:45 AM
I don't think 5-1 means what you think it means. Chicago finished 8-8 last year, Buffalo finished 6-10, but I think started 5-1, or pretty close. Green Bay & New England will probably finish closer to 12-4 than 8-8.

Maybe I said it wrong, but the general consensus around the country is that the Texans are a much better team than the Ravens, regardless the similar 5-1 record... we didn't get to play the Cowboys.

From Yahoo Sports (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/nfl-power-rankings-seahawks-packers-rising-steelers-bengals-072519858--nfl.html)3. Houston Texans (5-1)
Last week: 2
So they got clobbered on Sunday night against the Packers ‒ what's the takeaway? That Aaron Rodgers might still be a really good quarterback, and that the Texans are not a perfect football team? Neither of these items need be accompanied by a "Breaking News" graphic. They hacked up a furball against a desperate team that played their best football of the season. It happens.

4. Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
Last week: 7
I feel like there should've been a massive gap after the third team ‒ Falcons first, Giants second, Texans third, and then a whole lot of bank space and we'll resume around 10 or so. The Ravens probably didn't deserve to win this week (not my words, they're Joe Flacco's), but that's how the NFL carousel rotates. It just happened to be the Ravens this week who were the recipient of the Cowboys' weekly gift of football ineptitude.

GP
10-17-2012, 08:54 AM
Maybe I said it wrong, but the general consensus around the country is that the Texans are a much better team than the Ravens, regardless the similar 5-1 record... we didn't get to play the Cowboys.





And the previous week's 9-6 win over Chiefs doesn't look good on the Ravens either.

I won't predict anything on this game because frankly the Texans just showed me that they're capable of taking an entire game off.

I've seen this team sandbag for a quarter, quarter-and-a-half...but taking the entire GB game off has soured me on saying "Yes, Texans will beat the Ravens."

The better "bet" is Ravens SU at a $100 and you can win $260. IMO. Only in terms of betting/money. Because there's a good chance Texans slack, again, when they know they've got a bye week to look forward to. Just sayin'...

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 09:31 AM
I won't predict anything on this game because frankly the Texans just showed me that they're capable of taking an entire game off.


Things may not have gone the way they expected, but if I were the Texans, I'd take offense. None of us are perfect & those guys were playing their asses off. Tim Jamison didn't tear his achilles by taking the entire game off.

2012Champs
10-17-2012, 09:43 AM
Vegas doesnt care what our record is, they base the line on this game +/- where the money hits

LikeMike
10-17-2012, 10:00 AM
This will be a Statement game and tell us a lot about our team. They looked sloppy and overconfident last week - how do they respond? Will they be nervous and disorganized or will they be determined and executing like we are used to?

Win or lose, after this game we should know where this team can go this year...

Thorn
10-17-2012, 10:05 AM
This will be a Statement game and tell us a lot about our team. They looked sloppy and overconfident last week - how do they respond? Will they be nervous and disorganized or will they be determined and executing like we are used to?

Win or lose, after this game we should know where this team can go this year...

On that bolded part, if the Texans have another horrid and sloppy game like last Sunday, this board, and the press, will properly and justifiably crucify them.

MojoMan
10-17-2012, 10:38 AM
First, the spread will be closer by game time. However, I believe they'll cover 6.5 if they are the team I think they are & I believe they are.

Secondly, I believe polls should be public by default.

If you look today, the spread appears to have widened, on the average, from about 6.5 points to about 7 points.

And while I theoretically like the idea of public polls also, especially for something like this, my experience has been that substantially fewer people tend to participate when you make the poll public. Of course even when it is private, as this one is, people can choose to put themselves on record by posting their opinions in the thread.

paycheck71
10-17-2012, 11:42 AM
Neither the Texans nor Ravens were 'surprisingly' good teams like the Bills in 2011, so bringing them up in not relevant. 6.5 points is clear favorite in NFL. Sorry, the Texans are not clearly better than the Ravens. The texans may win by more than that, but it won't be because this betting line is accurate in its portrayal of the gap between the teams.

I don't think the betting line is supposed to represent some gap between the teams. The only thing it represents is betting public's confidence in wagering money on either team. And there's obviously more money coming in on the Texans for whatever reason. Often there is a linear correlation between the two, but there doesn't have to be.

MojoMan
10-17-2012, 11:47 AM
I don't think the betting line is supposed to represent some gap between the teams. The only thing it represents is betting public's confidence in wagering money on either team. And there's obviously more money coming in on the Texans for whatever reason. Often there is a linear correlation between the two, but there doesn't have to be.

Nevertheless, if you had to pick a point spread that forced people to a point of uncertainty and indecision about which way to go, what would it be? Seven points does it for me. I picked the Texans, but truth be told, that looks like an awful lot of points against a tough opponent. Would you think maybe 4 or 5 would be better?

paycheck71
10-17-2012, 12:09 PM
Nevertheless, if you had to pick a point spread that forced people to a point of uncertainty and indecision about which way to go, what would it be? Seven points does it for me. I picked the Texans, but truth be told, that looks like an awful lot of points against a tough opponent. Would you think maybe 4 or 5 would be better?

I'm sure the starting lines that the casinos come out with directly correlate to what the odds makers think the result will be. Any movement after that is only based on which side of the line gets more money bet.

I've also always heard that the home team automatically gets 3 points. I don't know how true that is, but home field should account for something. 3 points seems high to me, but what do I know.

I can see this game going either way. I can see us winning by 10+, but I can also see us losing. So, I personally would never put money on this game, unless the line was ridiculous. 7 seems high, but not yet ridiculous.

Trail.Blazr
10-17-2012, 12:16 PM
I think we paid Jacoby the $3M Leach was looking for, so it wasn't a matter of not being able to afford him, but not wanting to pay what he was asking. We didn't want him at that price, if that's what you mean.

Houston couldn't afford both that year. I think the result was due to them having no answer for depth at WR, but feel like they did at FB. There is little doubt that we wanted him at that price.. But cap space set the tone, rather than want.

Vonte was justified in not accepting Houston's offer. He deserved to get paid for being the best at his position. Unfortunately, his position wasn't the staple of how this Texans offense was designed.

Vonta certainly can't be used as an bullet for suggestion that the ravens aren't more talented because of him not being wanted by Houston.

I personally side with BullBlitz, but not naming players. I just feel like the Raven's Offense has been pretty effective, and we are looking at a Texan team learning to play without the Defensive Captain. On the flip side, the Houston offense has shown little sign of operating on all cylinders. There have been flashes, but for the most part.. it's giving me the appearance of a unit that is stalled. The loss of Lewis for the season in Baltimore has been suggested to be of little consequence, as his replacement is proven to play at a similar or better level. Ray's spirit will still be there on the sideline, which IMHO, is his strength.

Marcus
10-17-2012, 03:59 PM
I voted no. Them getting blown out like they did has brought my pessimistic shoe drop outlook back. Bastards!

NastyNate
10-17-2012, 04:41 PM
The Ravens lost by 1 to Philly, and have* won every other game in very close fashion. Baltimore will cover. This isn't a team that gets down big.

76Texan
10-17-2012, 07:22 PM
The Ravens lost by 1 to Philly, and has won every other game in very close fashion. Baltimore will cover. This isn't a team that gets down big.

Hey Nate, do you know their record against the line, and the fashion they cover or not? Just curious.

b0ng
10-17-2012, 08:23 PM
Neither the Texans nor Ravens were 'surprisingly' good teams like the Bills in 2011, so bringing them up in not relevant. 6.5 points is clear favorite in NFL. Sorry, the Texans are not clearly better than the Ravens. The texans may win by more than that, but it won't be because this betting line is accurate in its portrayal of the gap between the teams.

I don't know if you can really who is clearly better since we have yet to see what the Ravens already not as good as in previous years defense looks like without it's heart and soul and it's best cover corner.

Texn4life
10-17-2012, 08:52 PM
Hey Nate, do you know their record against the line, and the fashion they cover or not? Just curious.

They're 2-4 against the spread this year. They covered the first 2 games of the season and haven't covered since. They should have covered last week, but gave up the late TD to Dallas.

thunderkyss
10-17-2012, 08:59 PM
They're 2-4 against the spread this year. They covered the first 2 games of the season and haven't covered since. They should have covered last week, but gave up the late TD to Dallas.

How are the Texans against the spread?

NastyNate
10-17-2012, 10:12 PM
How are the Texans against the spread?

4-2, we didn't cover against the Jets (-9) or against GB (-3.5 or 4 depending on the book). We covered Jax (-9 I think) Miami (-7) Denver(-1) and Tenn (-8 or 9).

So essentially we don't cover on primetime is the trend. But all trends go south eventually.

Texn4life
10-17-2012, 11:49 PM
4-2, we didn't cover against the Jets (-9) or against GB (-3.5 or 4 depending on the book). We covered Jax (-9 I think) Miami (-7) Denver(-1) and Tenn (-8 or 9).

So essentially we don't cover on primetime is the trend. But all trends go south eventually.

You're right. We were REALLY good against the spread last year. 12-5-1. You don't see that very often so the Texans are a pretty popular pick in Vegas for obvious reasons.