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srrono
10-02-2012, 03:31 PM
The Dominant Texans Chase Statistical History

Either Tom Brady's Patriots or Peyton Manning's Broncos will be 3-2 by early Sunday evening. But neither team appears equipped to stop the mighty Houston Texans, who are on an early pace to be one of the most dominant teams in modern NFL history.

Houston was the Cold, Hard Football Facts preseason pick to win the Super Bowl. And so far the 4-0 Texans have exceeded our wildest expectations.

They dominate the NFL in two key indicators of success.

The first is the Relativity Index, which we discussed above. Denver and New England are No. 1 in offensive relativity. But if we look at both sides of the ball, Houston is the most dominant team in football, even when we take into account the quality of the opposition.

Here is the Top 10 on the Relativity Index entering Week 5:

1. Houston -- +16.8 points (+6.9 on offense; +9.9 on defense)
2. Denver -- +15.5 (+10.3; +5.2)
3. Atlanta -- +14.6 (+8.1; +6.5)
4. Arizona -- +12.7 (+3.4; +9.3)
5. Baltimore -- +12.7 (+8.3; +4.4)
6. New England -- +12.5 (+9.2; +3.3)
7. San Francisco -- +11.3 (+3.3; +8.0)
8. Chicago -- +8.9 (+7.4; +1.5)
9. Green Bay -- +7.3 (+1.6; +5.7)
10. Seattle -- +3.9 (-3.4; +7.3)

Houston is also dominant in our Quality Stats Power Rankings. This is our measure of the average performance across the board in all of our Quality Stats, each of which has a direct correlation to winning football games. Teams that top the Quality Stats Power Rankings have a habit of reaching Super Bowls at worst.

The Texans rank No. 2.8 on average in each of our indicators. That number represents incredible top to bottom strength in all phases of the game. They rank no worse than No. 6 in any individual indicator, Real Passing Yards Per Attempt (7.36 YPA).

We've rarely seen a team so good in so many indicators. For a little perspective, the 16-0 2007 Patriots were the most dominant NFL team since World War II, and the only club in NFL history to score 300 more points than it surrendered (589-274).

Those Patriots ranked, on average, 3.4 across the board in our 2007 Quality Stats Power Rankings.

Houston (through four games) is slightly stronger than the wire-to-wire 2007 Patriots. But as we saw, those Patriots started red hot and couldn't keep the momentum going, ultimately faltering in the Super Bowl.

The Texans right now are on pace to score 504 points and surrender 224. That 280-point differential would be third in the Super Bowl Era, behind the 2007 Patriots (+315) and 1999 Rams (+284).

@SInow The @HoustonTexans are on an early pace to be one of the most dominant teams in modern #NFL history. http://on.si.com/U7V5Nt

The Pencil Neck
10-02-2012, 03:35 PM
Those are some amazing stats.

But.

We're 4 weeks into the season and there's a LOT of football left to play. And as dominant as we've been, we all know that we have areas where we can improve and weaknesses that some teams might be able to exploit.

HJam72
10-02-2012, 03:45 PM
19-0 boooooooooyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!11111111

:kubepalm: :wadepalm:

Thorn
10-02-2012, 04:02 PM
Aw for christs sakes we've only played four frikkin' games. :lol:

gtexan02
10-02-2012, 04:05 PM
There will be a regression toward the mean, I'm sure, but for now I'm living it up and enjoying the hype and news :)

HJam72
10-02-2012, 04:07 PM
There will be a regression toward the mean, I'm sure, but for now I'm living it up and enjoying the hype and news :)

19-0 boooooooooyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!11111111

:kubepalm: :wadepalm:

I'm enjoying myself, too. :kitten:

salinaspaul
10-02-2012, 04:09 PM
Keep your eyes on the step ahead of ya, not the one 50 steps ahead...

HJam72
10-02-2012, 04:10 PM
Keep your eyes on the step ahead of ya, not the one 50 steps ahead...

Meh, that's for players and coaches. I'm looking forward to a three-peat, LOL.

TexansFanatic
10-02-2012, 04:21 PM
The article itself cautions those who might read too much into the stats of a 4-0 start:

Houston (through four games) is slightly stronger than the wire-to-wire 2007 Patriots. But as we saw, those Patriots started red hot and couldn't keep the momentum going, ultimately faltering in the Super Bowl.

Even so, it's a helluva fun read. Sure beats 0-4!

salinaspaul
10-02-2012, 04:27 PM
even so, it's a helluva fun read. Sure beats 0-4!

qft

Thorn
10-02-2012, 05:34 PM
There will be a regression toward the mean, I'm sure, but for now I'm living it up and enjoying the hype and news :)

There is that. :)

2slik4u
10-02-2012, 05:36 PM
Meh, that's for players and coaches. I'm looking forward to a three-peat, LOL.

Im not talking a 3-peat, 4-peat, or even 5-peat...Im talking a minimum 8-peat....

SrslySirius
10-02-2012, 06:03 PM
We've only played 4 games! None of this matters! You can't use current results to predict future events. This fuzzy math is irrelevant. JJ Watt's sack total is irrelevant. Ben Tate's health is irrelevant. It's so early in the season, all these games are irrelevant. Every thread on this message board evaluating the team is pointless. What do you guys think you are, psychics? There could be a catastrophic wave of injuries any moment. Stop being so optimistic. Let's all log off and reserve our judgment on this team's talent until January.

The Pencil Neck
10-02-2012, 06:04 PM
We've only played 4 games! None of this matters! You can't use current results to predict future events. This fuzzy math is irrelevant. JJ Watt's sack total is irrelevant. Ben Tate's health is irrelevant. It's so early in the season, all these games are irrelevant. Every thread on this message board evaluating the team is pointless. What do you guys think you are, psychics? There could be a catastrophic wave of injuries any moment. Stop being so optimistic. Let's all log off and reserve our judgment on this team's talent until January.

Finally, someone speaking rationally.

Oh.

Waittasecond...

:kubepalm:

Rey
10-02-2012, 06:23 PM
Ya know...

When I visit other teams boards and so far they always (not sometimes, ALWAYS) play the "who have they played?" card. It never fails.

I can't help but think, well if we beat you guys the next team will say the same thing about you.

If you haven't figured out that we are actually a good team then you don't know what the hell you're watching.

I also find it funny when opposing fans say that because I'm thinking, the teams we beat would probably beat you or at least give you all you could handle.

The Pencil Neck
10-02-2012, 06:30 PM
Ya know...

When I visit other teams boards and so far they always (not sometimes, ALWAYS) play the "who have they played?" card. It never fails.

I can't help but think, well if we beat you guys the next team will say the same thing about you.

If you haven't figured out that we are actually a good team then you don't know what the hell you're watching.

I also find it funny when opposing fans say that because I'm thinking, the teams we beat would probably beat you or at least give you all you could handle.

The Jets Fans: "Who have they played?"

Uh. We beat the Dolphins 30-10 and those guys took you to overtime.

And we beat the Broncos by 6. The same margin of victory the Falcons had over them and the Falcons were at home.

DexmanC
10-02-2012, 06:51 PM
Literally every team the Texans have played this season has found itself
down by 20 points after making THE SLIGHTEST of mistakes.

The Texans are a juggernaut this season, and if they stay healthy, there
is no team in the league with a defense balanced enough to stop this offense.

J.J. Watt is unblockable, and if teams try, 3 other guys will run free
at the QB.

I enjoy watching both sides of the ball when the Texans play, and it's the
first time I've been able to truthfully say so.

drs23
10-02-2012, 07:21 PM
Literally every team the Texans have played this season has found itself
down by 20 points after making THE SLIGHTEST of mistakes.

The Texans are a juggernaut this season, and if they stay healthy, there
is no team in the league with a defense balanced enough to stop this offense.

J.J. Watt is unblockable, and if teams try, 3 other guys will run free
at the QB.

I enjoy watching both sides of the ball when the Texans play, and it's the
first time I've been able to truthfully say so.

:goodpost:

Very well presented Dex. This team is SO much fun to watch. As some of the heads have said "this is a great time to be a Texans fan" and they're spot on. I felt the same as someone posted in another thread along the lines of "when the Tits scored, I wasn't worried at all". This is the first season I can honestly say that.

I realize this is really early in the season. I don't see a big fall before the real 'big boy football' time comes. We'll be there.

Bring 'em on!

:texflag:

Wolf
10-02-2012, 10:09 PM
next three teams
Jets,Packers and Ravens.

then a bye week

I will wait to see judgement

gtexan02
10-02-2012, 10:39 PM
Heres one thing I love about Texans fans:

No write ups about the Texans? Complain about not getting any love despite our success

Write ups about the Texans? Complain that its meaningless and way too early to say anything

Lol

The Pencil Neck
10-02-2012, 10:53 PM
Heres one thing I love about Texans fans:

No write ups about the Texans? Complain about not getting any love despite our success

Write ups about the Texans? Complain that its meaningless and way too early to say anything

Lol

After all the weird and negative things that have happened over the years, it's a protective mechanism.

Speedy
10-02-2012, 11:19 PM
We've only played 4 games! None of this matters! You can't use current results to predict future events. This fuzzy math is irrelevant. JJ Watt's sack total is irrelevant. Ben Tate's health is irrelevant. It's so early in the season, all these games are irrelevant. Every thread on this message board evaluating the team is pointless. What do you guys think you are, psychics? There could be a catastrophic wave of injuries any moment. Stop being so optimistic. Let's all log off and reserve our judgment on this team's talent until January.

Good grief! Nobody knows what the next game brings. Why can't people just enjoy the moment? Yes, we all realize there's a lot of football left. And as we've seen recently, going 16-0 or even 15-1 doesn't mean a whole lot if you lose just one after that.

Right now, the Texans look to be the best there is after 4 games. Fact! Doesn't mean anything more than that. For 10 years all you read around here is that the Texans don't get the respect, don't get the national attention. Well, now they're finally getting it and people want to whip out the "it's only 4 games" card? Come on!

Enjoy the damn moment for a change. The Texans will likely lose one of their 16 games and the board will explode and get back to it's normal fire everybody self. But at the quarter pole, the Houston Texans are the best thing going. That doesn't put a trophy in the case or have us lining the parade route, but it's better than what we've ever had around these parts. Ever.

DX-TEX
10-02-2012, 11:23 PM
Aw for christs sakes we've only played four frikkin' games. :lol:

I said the same thing then I caught this part:

The first is the Relativity Index, which we discussed above. Denver and New England are No. 1 in offensive relativity. But if we look at both sides of the ball, Houston is the most dominant team in football, even when we take into account the quality of the opposition.

:fans:

SrslySirius
10-02-2012, 11:29 PM
Good grief! Nobody knows what the next game brings. Why can't people just enjoy the moment? Yes, we all realize there's a lot of football left. And as we've seen recently, going 16-0 or even 15-1 doesn't mean a whole lot if you lose just one after that.

Right now, the Texans look to be the best there is after 4 games. Fact! Doesn't mean anything more than that. For 10 years all you read around here is that the Texans don't get the respect, don't get the national attention. Well, now they're finally getting it and people want to whip out the "it's only 4 games" card? Come on!

Enjoy the damn moment for a change. The Texans will likely lose one of their 16 games and the board will explode and get back to it's normal fire everybody self. But at the quarter pole, the Houston Texans are the best thing going. That doesn't put a trophy in the case or have us lining the parade route, but it's better than what we've ever had around these parts. Ever.

I was being sarcastic. I think it's absurd that the OP is being dismissed because "we're only 4 games in". It makes as much sense as dismissing all the other evidence that we have a very special team this year.

DX-TEX
10-02-2012, 11:32 PM
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y300/MechDX/texanskoolaid.jpg

But it tastes so damn good!

Kaiser Toro
10-02-2012, 11:56 PM
I will take a four game stretch of domination, anytime.

PapaL
10-03-2012, 12:30 AM
Keep your eyes on the step ahead of ya, not the one 50 steps ahead...

I don't understand this logic. No team in the history of sports has ever lost a game because the fans were looking ahead. It's what we're suppose to do as fans. It's why we have a forum, to discuss such things...no matter how ridiculous they may or may not be.

"Damn coach I would've made that play but Papa L was BS'ing in his office yesterday in DC about our statistical probabilities. That's why I missed my assignment."

Enjoy the 4-0. Sure as hell beats where we've been!

Brisco_County
10-03-2012, 12:34 AM
I think the Texans will remain one of the dominant teams through the season, but the only quality opponent we played was Denver, and they hardly have their chemistry established. I'll believe these formulas after Green Bay and Baltimore.

I have enjoyed the beatdowns we're giving, though.

SrslySirius
10-03-2012, 12:50 AM
I think the Texans will remain one of the dominant teams through the season, but the only quality opponent we played was Denver, and they hardly have their chemistry established. I'll believe these formulas after Green Bay and Baltimore.

I have enjoyed the beatdowns we're giving, though.

One of the quality stats (one of their most reliable indicators, in fact) controls for strength of opponents.

Example: if team A averages 25 PPG, and we hold them to 10, we're +15. If they allow 20 PPG on average, and we score 24 on them, we're +4. It's actually pretty hard to gain many points in this category against bad teams, but we're still leading the league.

Txn_in_FL
10-03-2012, 01:27 AM
next three teams
Jets,Packers and Ravens.

then a bye week

I will wait to see judgement

This.

Go 7-0 into the bye you will see even more believers come around. This team could very well be something special.

Corrosion
10-03-2012, 03:42 AM
Heres one thing I love about Texans fans:

No write ups about the Texans? Complain about not getting any love despite our success

Write ups about the Texans? Complain that its meaningless and way too early to say anything

Lol

I dont much care about the media .... they lost me long ago both in sports and other "news." They are more concerned with selling hype , controversy or sensationalizing than reporting the news .... since those are what pay the bills while simply telling it how it is is plain and boring.


Damn I must be getting old ..... :lion:



Just bring me a :trophy: .... we can forget about the media hype.

corytx8
10-03-2012, 06:27 AM
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y300/MechDX/texanskoolaid.jpg

But it tastes so damn good!

Yet, I I had to use this pic as my facebook profile pic!

Insideop
10-03-2012, 08:05 AM
I think the Texans will remain one of the dominant teams through the season, but the only quality opponent we played was Denver, and they hardly have their chemistry established. I'll believe these formulas after Green Bay and Baltimore.

I have enjoyed the beatdowns we're giving, though.

Yes, it is much better to give than receive! :D

Thorn
10-03-2012, 08:43 AM
I think the Texans will remain one of the dominant teams through the season, but the only quality opponent we played was Denver, and they hardly have their chemistry established. I'll believe these formulas after Green Bay and Baltimore.

I have enjoyed the beatdowns we're giving, though.

The very fact that we are beating the teams we are supposed to be beating is in itself a vast improvement considering the Texans history.

I know I'm acting like a negative nillie here, but I'm as exicited as everyone else about the Texans. I've just watched to many seasons of football in my life and know better than to get to exicited this early in the season. One thing for sure, this is the best frikkin' team the Texans have ever fielded.

BlueSteel
10-03-2012, 09:33 AM
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y300/MechDX/texanskoolaid.jpg

But it tastes so damn good!

Hey I made that!!! Where did you get that from?

infantrycak
10-03-2012, 09:48 AM
I think the Texans will remain one of the dominant teams through the season, but the only quality opponent we played was Denver, and they hardly have their chemistry established. I'll believe these formulas after Green Bay and Baltimore.

I have enjoyed the beatdowns we're giving, though.

I don't think the bold is true. Miami is turning out to be a better team than expected. They have lost two games in overtime, one to a 4-0 team. Pouncey their center said:

We donít look at ourselves as a 1-3 football team; we look at ourselves as a 3-1 football team, which we should be today.

They certainly could be. Guess which one loss he finds legitimate.

salinaspaul
10-03-2012, 10:53 AM
I don't understand this logic. No team in the history of sports has ever lost a game because the fans were looking ahead. It's what we're suppose to do as fans. It's why we have a forum, to discuss such things...no matter how ridiculous they may or may not be.

I guess I was making a suggestion that we follow the team's protocol: to look at the game ahead of us (Jets) and not to stray off to "more qualified teams" in the distance... to focus on maintaining 1-0 for the week, every week.

Enjoy the 4-0. Sure as hell beats where we've been!

In all my cautiousness, there is simply no way of getting around this. You cannot help but enjoy. It's like the weather we've had in H-town recently.

#DamnItFeelsGoodToBeATexan

noxiousdog
10-03-2012, 11:20 AM
We've only played 4 games! None of this matters! You can't use current results to predict future events. This fuzzy math is irrelevant. JJ Watt's sack total is irrelevant. Ben Tate's health is irrelevant. It's so early in the season, all these games are irrelevant. Every thread on this message board evaluating the team is pointless. What do you guys think you are, psychics? There could be a catastrophic wave of injuries any moment. Stop being so optimistic. Let's all log off and reserve our judgment on this team's talent until January.

So you're saying this weeks game is a coin flip?

edit: Sarcasm impaired.

The Pencil Neck
10-03-2012, 11:35 AM
I guess I was making a suggestion that we follow the team's protocol: to look at the game ahead of us (Jets) and not to stray off to "more qualified teams" in the distance... to focus on maintaining 1-0 for the week, every week.

I was actually surprised to see PapaL get onto you about that "1 game at a time" thing. It's actually a pet peeve of mine and I didn't know anyone else shared it.

But a lot of times, fans hear the sayings that the players need to live by or they were high school/college players and they had those sayings drilled into them and it gets them into a players-mindset. The coaches say those things over and over: "One game at a time. Don't get too high or too low. Yadda yadda yadda."

That's great for the players.

But for us? We're fans. The only effect we have on the game is when we're in the stadium cheering (or being quiet). Our thoughts and actions aren't going to cost the team a game. We can look ahead. It's OK. :)

We need to start a support group.

salinaspaul
10-03-2012, 12:35 PM
But for us? We're fans. The only effect we have on the game is when we're in the stadium cheering (or being quiet). Our thoughts and actions aren't going to cost the team a game. We can look ahead. It's OK. :)

I see what you're saying. Agreed.