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View Full Version : PFF Three Years of Drop Rate for Wide Receivers - Sticky Fingers


pec0sb0b
07-02-2012, 04:53 PM
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTbMiMxLseTzYsucCShWgbhhUYmVSWnD jjUHSyLwQ_slUaOeUvS

Once again we are shown that Kevin Walter has hands like a tree frog.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/02/three-years-of-drop-rate-wide-receivers/

...up at the top thereís a name that wonít surprise many Bears fans but may surprise many others. Earl Bennett, with just four drops from 127 catchable balls, has the lowest drop percentage of just 3.15%. That wasnít much better than the ever-excellent Larry Fitzgerald who continues to show remarkable consistency with his hands, dropping an average of three balls each season and just 3.27% of catchable balls. Behind him are less-heralded players like Kevin Walter and Lance Moore, while San Diego fans will be happy to see Malcom Floyd with the fifth-lowest drop percentage, and new signing Robert Meachem down in 11th.

Catching the ball isnít the be all and end all when it comes to receiving. You need to be able to get open and make things happen after the catch. But, fundamentally, if you donít secure the ball then your route running is wasted, and you donít even get a chance to find your way for extra yardage.

- much respect for former Texan Jabar Gaffney (number 7 on the list)

powda
07-02-2012, 09:01 PM
Walter just never appears to get much seperation. Great hands and all, if your not open your not an option for the quarterback.

Good article.

Texan_Bill
07-02-2012, 09:32 PM
Walter just never appears to get much seperation. Great hands and all, if your not open your not an option for the quarterback.

Good article.

He's not, nor has he ever been a receiver that can get "seperation"... He's known to run good inside, "clear-out" routes... Steve Largent was never known to get separartion and was known as the "slowest receiver" EVER!!! That worked out pretty well for him and Seattle... As an aside, the Oilers effed up by not retaining him (Largent that is), no??

hookinreds
07-02-2012, 09:58 PM
When did Houston become HST and not HOU?

powda
07-02-2012, 10:09 PM
He's not, nor has he ever been a receiver that can get "seperation"... He's known to run good inside, "clear-out" routes... Steve Largent was never known to get separartion and was known as the "slowest receiver" EVER!!! That worked out pretty well for him and Seattle... As an aside, the Oilers effed up by not retaining him (Largent that is), no??

Plenty of slow wideouts who get/got separation by route/hand play/or other nuisance. I know hes typically a 3-5 option on plays but personally I expect to see more production. At least jacoby was considered a bit of deep threat for a while.

Largent worked out pretty damn good. I was fortunate to see his last season or 2.

dc_txtech
07-02-2012, 11:01 PM
Walter slides in as TE on a lot of plays, I've also seen him line up at "h-back". The guy can block like a FB and catches passes thrown to him at a very high rate.

Walter may not be our Jordy Nelson who can break big plays but I also don't see Nelson motioning into the backfield as a blocker very often.

I know Walter needs to be upgraded at some point but there is very good reason he is still our #2 after all these years.

Ryan
07-02-2012, 11:16 PM
When did Houston become HST and not HOU?


Pretty sure that's what they are on official scorecards.

TexansFanatic
07-03-2012, 12:22 AM
http://dispatchmag.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/sticky-fingers1.jpeg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ8MvnEVCqM)

hookinreds
07-03-2012, 10:03 AM
Pretty sure that's what they are on official scorecards.

Really...I have to admit that's the first time I've seen it listed that way...for that matter it's not something I really give a flip about so probably I've probably seen it a bunch of times and just didn't care. Just one of those things that seem to catch my eye this time.

Rey
07-03-2012, 10:10 AM
Walter slides in as TE on a lot of plays, I've also seen him line up at "h-back". The guy can block like a FB and catches passes thrown to him at a very high rate.

Walter may not be our Jordy Nelson who can break big plays but I also don't see Nelson motioning into the backfield as a blocker very often.

I know Walter needs to be upgraded at some point but there is very good reason he is still our #2 after all these years.

There's also a reason they asked him to take a pay cut this off-season.

hookinreds
07-03-2012, 10:16 AM
Plenty of slow wideouts who get/got separation by route/hand play/or other nuisance. I know hes typically a 3-5 option on plays but personally I expect to see more production. At least jacoby was considered a bit of deep threat for a while.

Largent worked out pretty damn good. I was fortunate to see his last season or 2.

Largent was the true example of being able to cut on a dime. The guy was the best route runner of all time in my opinion. That combined with great hands is what made him an incredible receiver. You can have the best DBs line up on him but he always has the advantage becuase only he knew which direction he was going. Don't want to hijack the thread, but here's a good piece on him for those interested. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xngEhkD9uuA. On a side note, Zorn was a great scrambler (not by choice) and could make things happen with Largent on the fly.

El Tejano
07-03-2012, 11:20 AM
He's not, nor has he ever been a receiver that can get "seperation"... He's known to run good inside, "clear-out" routes... Steve Largent was never known to get separartion and was known as the "slowest receiver" EVER!!! That worked out pretty well for him and Seattle... As an aside, the Oilers effed up by not retaining him (Largent that is), no??

If I'm not mistaken, we were trading with Seattle and ended up getting Earl Campbell right? Or was that for Oscar Giles?

JB
07-03-2012, 11:23 AM
If I'm not mistaken, we were trading with Seattle and ended up getting Earl Campbell right? Or was that for Oscar Giles?

I think the Oilers cut him after his first training camp

CloakNNNdagger
07-03-2012, 11:24 AM
Anyone notice Jabbar Gafney at 7th best drop percentage?

eriadoc
07-03-2012, 11:34 AM
Walter just never appears to get much seperation. Great hands and all, if your not open your not an option for the quarterback.

Good article.

With access to the All-22 film this season, I think we'll find out for certain once and for all that this is imply untrue. He is not targeted all that frequently, but it's by design rather than ability.

Anyone notice Jabbar Gafney at 7th best drop percentage?

It's funny. All anyone ever seems to remember are two plays - the one that hit him in the back of the shoulder (which I believe was on Carr) and the one drop he had in or near the end zone. My memory is getting fuzzy on the early years, thankfully. But I do remember posting a statistical breakdown that showed Gaffney was a very good WR for the Texans. I believe it was after the '04 season, he had the highest catch percentage of anyone on the team, the fewest drops, and the most yards per catch, considerably ahead of AJ in the latter category. The gist of it was basically when he was targeted, Gaffney was a very productive receiver. Of course back then, DD was the primary target of every play LOL.

eriadoc
07-03-2012, 11:39 AM
I just got a little sad for remembering that I posted something eight years ago.

El Tejano
07-03-2012, 11:41 AM
Anyone notice Jabbar Gafney at 7th best drop percentage?

I did. Before we even saw this article.

disaacks3
07-03-2012, 11:43 AM
Anyone notice Jabbar Gafney at 7th best drop percentage?

Gaff was the first player the Texans released that I truly had an issue with. The man was money over the middle.

powda
07-03-2012, 11:52 AM
With access to the All-22 film this season, I think we'll find out for certain once and for all that this is imply untrue. He is not targeted all that frequently, but it's by design rather than ability.


I think some of it is a bi-product of design. I'm willing to say its unreasonable to expect 70 reception seasons because of how he's used ,but he should be in the 50-60 reception range. I just dont see enough production or homerun ability.

I think hes not targeted more often because he's not open. Feel free to post screen shots ala 76 because the TV view sucks.

eriadoc
07-03-2012, 12:01 PM
I think some of it is a bi-product of design. I'm willing to say its unreasonable to expect 70 reception seasons because of how he's used ,but he should be in the 50-60 reception range. I just dont see enough production or homerun ability.

I think hes not targeted more often because he's not open. Feel free to post screen shots ala 76 because the TV view sucks.

I think the routes he is asked to run are by design not open. It's his job to confuse the defense and drag a couple of defenders a couple yards off their spot while AJ or the TE goes up the seam or on a deep in route. The first game that AJ was out, for instance, Walter was targeted only once, while JJ was targeted 11 times. That tells me they weren't even trying to use Walter as their #1 WR in AJ's absence.

I'm looking forward to the All-22 to see if that's true. We shall see.

ChampionTexan
07-03-2012, 12:02 PM
Gaff was the first player the Texans released that I truly had an issue with. The man was money over the middle.

He wasn't released - he signed a four year contract with the Texans and played out all of it. The Texans chose not to re-sign him, but he wasn't released.

powda
07-03-2012, 12:18 PM
I think the routes he is asked to run are by design not open. It's his job to confuse the defense and drag a couple of defenders a couple yards off their spot while AJ or the TE goes up the seam or on a deep in route.

Thats what I mean when I say "bi-product of design".

Traditionally, Schaub has been pretty good about spreading the ball around and not forcing plays...Aj, Od, Foster, Tate, hell even Casey have had big games. Just never seems to be the case for Walter.


I'm looking forward to the All-22 to see if that's true. We shall see.

I dont know how much i'm really arguing the point, I like Walter. But it would be nice to have a more informed opinion.

disaacks3
07-03-2012, 12:23 PM
He wasn't released - he signed a four year contract with the Texans and played out all of it. The Texans chose not to re-sign him, but he wasn't released.

PotAto, PotAHto... His services weren't retained and he didn't sign a huge contract elsewhere. If the Texans wanted him, he'd have stayed.

hookinreds
07-03-2012, 12:29 PM
I think the Oilers cut him after his first training camp

Oilers were going to cut him after camp in '76 but actually got a late round '77 draft pick for him from Seattle. As to El Tejano's question about Giles...I don't believe he was a later rounder...maybe the Oilers moved up using that Seattle late rounder to get him I don't know, but think Giles was in there with Tim Wilson and Rob Carpenter, maybe a 3 or 4th rounder. Earl was the following draft.

Rey
07-03-2012, 01:20 PM
I think the routes he is asked to run are by design not open. It's his job to confuse the defense and drag a couple of defenders a couple yards off their spot while AJ or the TE goes up the seam or on a deep in route. The first game that AJ was out, for instance, Walter was targeted only once, while JJ was targeted 11 times. That tells me they weren't even trying to use Walter as their #1 WR in AJ's absence.

I'm looking forward to the All-22 to see if that's true. We shall see.



I don't agree with that.

Not counting his very first year here, his receptions have decreased every year since he's been a starter. in 08 He could have been a 1000 yard receiver with maybe 6-10 more catches.

There is a reason they gave him the contract they did....And then came back later and asked him to take a pay cut...

Also, if you're talking about the Oakland game Walter was targeted 6 times according to this (http://www.kffl.com/player/7352/nfl/utilization/kevin-walter?uyear=2011).

It just doesn't make any sense that they'd use KW, a guy with great hands and great route running ability, mostly as a decoy...Even when you have Jacoby Jones and ???? on the field with him.

The Pencil Neck
07-03-2012, 01:57 PM
But the thing about this offense is that it's about the reads. You don't go in with "this guy is my number 1 option" mentality. You go in with "I read the defense and based on that, I decide where I'm supposed to go." You make your pre-snap reads to get a general idea, and then generally, you follow your feet. You go through your dropback and you make specific reads with each step. And based on that information, you make your decision about who's supposed to be open and you throw it to the spot where that receiver is supposed to be.

You don't go in saying, "I'm going to target Jacoby more than KW." You target the guy that's supposed to be open based on what the defense is giving you. If you've got Jacoby and KW out there and Jacoby's getting the targets, it's because Jacoby's the one they're not covering right.

If a team decides they're going to shut down AJ, that's fine. The ball will go somewhere else and Kubes will call plays to take advantage of how you're playing AJ.

That was part of TJ's problem at times. He didn't know the reads as well as Matt does. And so he made up his mind that if he didn't know what was going on, he was going to throw it to AJ. Which isn't a bad strategy overall when AJ is healthy. :)

Rey
07-03-2012, 02:08 PM
You don't go in saying, "I'm going to target Jacoby more than KW." You target the guy that's supposed to be open based on what the defense is giving you. If you've got Jacoby and KW out there and Jacoby's getting the targets, it's because Jacoby's the one they're not covering right.

Well, that's certainly a Texans centric way of looking at things.

Maybe Jacoby is the one they're "not covering right" sometimes because he's doing a better job of getting open.

Maybe defenses consistently do a better job covering Walter because he's easier to cover...

At the end of the day though, it's apparent that neither Jacoby nor Walter lived up to the Texans' expectations. They cut Jacoby and asked Walter to reduce his salary.

The Pencil Neck
07-03-2012, 03:01 PM
Maybe Jacoby is the one they're "not covering right" sometimes because he's doing a better job of getting open.

Maybe defenses consistently do a better job covering Walter because he's easier to cover...

We've had this discussion before. Sure, there are some plays were you drop back and look for someone to be open and there are some offenses that are supposed to work that way. But from everything I've read and heard, that's not the fundamental way the Texan's offense is supposed to work. It's not about looking for someone to get open, it's about looking at where the defense isn't and going to the guy who's supposed to be there. The routes are set up so that someone should always be open.

Big Lou
07-03-2012, 03:10 PM
Anybody see where "Dropcoby Jones" was on that list?

thunderkyss
07-03-2012, 03:14 PM
It's funny. All anyone ever seems to remember are two plays - the one that hit him in the back of the shoulder (which I believe was on Carr) and the one drop he had in or near the end zone. My memory is getting fuzzy on the early years, thankfully. But I do remember posting a statistical breakdown that showed Gaffney was a very good WR for the Texans. I believe it was after the '04 season, he had the highest catch percentage of anyone on the team, the fewest drops, and the most yards per catch, considerably ahead of AJ in the latter category. The gist of it was basically when he was targeted, Gaffney was a very productive receiver. Of course back then, DD was the primary target of every play LOL.

I liked Gaffney & thought he got the raw end from the fans.

Never thought he was a "very" good receiver, but thought he was as good or better than the bunch we've brought in since.

& he was young at the time.... upside, room to grow, yadda, yadda...

thunderkyss
07-03-2012, 03:26 PM
I don't agree with that.

Not counting his very first year here, his receptions have decreased every year since he's been a starter. in 08 He could have been a 1000 yard receiver with maybe 6-10 more catches.



I think his production came down, because he's been splitting time with Jacoby Jones. Kubiak couldn't (wouldn't) make up his mind who was #2 on this team.

They probably took an equal number of snaps, when there should be a clear difference between the #2 & #3. I don't know if we can fault Kubiak (but I will in a minute), he had Jacoby who was pretty talented.

If it were me, I'd have made Jacoby my number 2, clearly giving him significantly more snaps & see how he responds. After two weeks & a few practices, the experiment should have been over & he should have went one way or the other.

Knowing what we know now about how Jacoby turned out, I know this isn't going to be a popular idea. But I'm talking back there after Jacoby had his "breakout" year & before signing him to a $10M contract.

thunderkyss
07-03-2012, 03:30 PM
Well, that's certainly a Texans centric way of looking at things.

Maybe Jacoby is the one they're "not covering right" sometimes because he's doing a better job of getting open.

Maybe defenses consistently do a better job covering Walter because he's easier to cover...



Or maybe they knew Jacoby wasn't going to catch it.

Kinda like leaving Garnet open on the three point line until he drains a couple.

I'm being facetious here, because I thought Jacoby was more dangerous than KDub on any given play. He might not catch the ball, but if he does, & you're playing off, he just might score on you too.

Rey
07-03-2012, 04:32 PM
Or maybe they knew Jacoby wasn't going to catch it.

Kinda like leaving Garnet open on the three point line until he drains a couple.

I'm being facetious here, because I thought Jacoby was more dangerous than KDub on any given play. He might not catch the ball, but if he does, & you're playing off, he just might score on you too.

Probably why Andre got more catches and targets than KW too...


Maybe they didn't think he'd catch it either....:kitten:

Rey
07-03-2012, 04:51 PM
We've had this discussion before. Sure, there are some plays were you drop back and look for someone to be open and there are some offenses that are supposed to work that way. But from everything I've read and heard, that's not the fundamental way the Texan's offense is supposed to work. It's not about looking for someone to get open, it's about looking at where the defense isn't and going to the guy who's supposed to be there. The routes are set up so that someone should always be open.

Well, I just completely disagree with you.

Every offense is designed to read defenses. If you think that the QB's are just throwing to open holes in the defense based on where they think a WR is supposed to be then you are wrong.

It's not JUST about looking for guys to get open, but at times that's part of it. Some plays are designed to get the ball into other guys' hands more but this is football. Defenses react differently to things and that is where a QB's reads come into play. You can design a play to get Andre open all you want, but if the CB and safety don't bite and he is bracketed in coverage you have to move your eyes and go somewhere else with the ball even if that was your first read.

Different QB's and different offenses go through their progressions differently.

I honestly don't think you know what you are talking about here and I'm not trying to be offensive. It's not cut and dry and this stuff changes on every play.

Some of it is just flat out personal preference of the QB...If a QB really trust a guy they may go to him...If they feel rushed they may go to the dump off...If they have a fast guy going deep they may say screw it and throw it up and see if they can go get it.

KW's production was down because he didn't get passes his way. You can believe whatever reason for that you want to, but the team decided to reduce his salary. That is not debatable.

The Pencil Neck
07-03-2012, 04:53 PM
Probably why Andre got more catches and targets than KW too...


Maybe they didn't think he'd catch it either....:kitten:

You think people roll coverage to AJ on every play? They should. But they don't.

TimeKiller
07-03-2012, 06:23 PM
Walter was open as all get out on the only play I care about.

TJ Yates steps back...FIRES to the right, Walter is open! TOUCHDOWN!

And then the Texans made the playoffs for the first time ever.

pec0sb0b
07-03-2012, 08:22 PM
Owen Daniels has sticky fingers, too...

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/03/three-year-drop-rate-tight-ends/

infantrycak
07-03-2012, 08:23 PM
Let's use basically the least athletic receiving option we had - now look at how wide open he is and tell me this is not primarily play design - Link (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zepcue6In0k)

The only times he catches a ball close to a defender are timing routes. The others the coverage has been manipulated.

sandman
07-06-2012, 01:56 PM
I think some of it is a bi-product of design. I'm willing to say its unreasonable to expect 70 reception seasons because of how he's used ,but he should be in the 50-60 reception range. I just dont see enough production or homerun ability.

I think hes not targeted more often because he's not open. Feel free to post screen shots ala 76 because the TV view sucks.

Four straight seasons of 50-65 receptions from '08-'11. Seems he met your expectations and yet you still say he doesn't produce enough.

powda
07-06-2012, 02:25 PM
Ah but how many receptions last year after a pay raise? You wont find post from me complaining about his production in previous years.