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EllisUnit
06-26-2012, 11:01 PM
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1234771-houston-texans-and-the-hall-of-fame-how-close-are-key-players-to-canton

All week, I'll be looking at players in the AFC South who have a legitimate chance to make the Hall of Fame when they retire. Up first are the Houston Texans.

For the purposes of this exercise, I'm not going to consider any player who has been in the league for fewer than five seasons.

While that excludes players like Arian Foster and J.J. Watt, the fact is that many men have a strong start to their careers but fall by the wayside as injuries and time catch up to them. It's simply too hard to predict that far down the road. It's not that they aren't potential Hall of Famers, just that it's too soon to examine their cases.

That leaves four current and one ex-Texan to evaluate. They are presented in order of their likeliness of making the Hall of Fame.



Andre Johnson

Johnson has had a spectacular career, but he plays a position where spectacular hasn't been enough for quite some time. When players like Cris Carter, Tim Brown and Andre Reed have to wait several years for induction, you know it's going to difficult for any receiver.

Johnson's career stacks up comparably to Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis. Look at the numbers of both men through nine years.




Wayne is already a longshot for Canton, and he has something Johnson doesn't have: a Super Bowl ring. Rings shouldn't even be considered when measuring wide receivers, but they are. If the matter were decided right now, Wayne would be in line ahead of Johnson.

Given Johnson's current rank on the all-time lists, I give him no more than 30 percent chance of making the Hall. I'm afraid that's being generous.

Johnson ranks 91st in career receiving touchdowns and needs 40 more to make the top 10 all-time. Only six men in history have ever accomplished this after age 30: Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Cris Carter, Terrell Owens, Irving Fryar, and Tim Brown.

In yards, Johnson ranks 39th all-time. To break into the top 10, he needs roughly 4200 more yards. This is more doable, as 23 players have done it after age 30. The bad news is that of the top 10 wideouts in yardage, only two are in the Hall of Fame. Yards won't be enough to get Andre Johnson in.

Johnson is 34th all-time in receptions. Another 250 would put him in the top 10. Again, this is quite possible, as 35 other men have managed it at Johnson's age. Unfortunately, of the top 10 in receptions, only Rice has been enshrined as a Hall of Famer.

For Johnson to make Canton, at the minimum he must accomplish the following: 50 more touchdowns, 5000 more yards, 400 more catches, three more Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl ring. Even with those numbers added to his already prodigious career, he'll still be in line behind other greats waiting to get in.

Odds of Enshrinement: 30%

Hmmm dont know if i agree with this about AJ. Johnson has the highest YPG of any WR in the history of the NFL. Has had 2 back to back 1500 yard seasons. And if he can get healthy again then he should for sure make it.

Dutchrudder
06-26-2012, 11:13 PM
He's simply not a lock for the HoF. He has a chance, but right now he isn't making the cut. Give him 3-4 more years of top 10 WR production and he should make it. But he needs to be healthy and he needs a good QB.

steelbtexan
06-26-2012, 11:33 PM
Foster has a chance to make the HOF in addition to AJ

The 1st Texans HOF'er probably isn't on the roster. I would give Cushing or Watt the best chance.

AJ would've been a HOF'er had he had some help or not played injured.

TheMatrix31
06-27-2012, 01:24 AM
Very dumb that AJ has such a small chance. He's, overall, one of the top 5 WRs I've ever seen.

Too bad the accomplishments don't back it up.

hobie
06-27-2012, 08:00 AM
Very dumb that AJ has such a small chance. He's, overall, one of the top 5 WRs I've ever seen.

Too bad the accomplishments don't back it up.

And the list of guys in front of him are pretty impressive as well... a few more years of really good numbers will help his case though, as by then , the guys in front of him might have been enshrined.

VTexan
06-27-2012, 09:21 AM
We should never start threads linking bleacher report..

drs23
06-27-2012, 10:17 AM
He's simply not a lock for the HoF. He has a chance, but right now he isn't making the cut. Give him 3-4 more years of top 10 WR production and he should make it. But he needs to be healthy and he needs a good QB.

Agreed. And as mentioned above, though rings shouldn't count, we all know they do. And heavily. AJ has to stay healthy and get back to form and he's got a shot but at this point he's certainly not a "lock" as badly as we want him to be.

IDEXAN
06-27-2012, 10:45 AM
Generally speaking players' careers are overrated based upon strong post-season performance and underrated on the basis of an absence or very little post season performance, atleast that's my opinion. Obviously AJ falls into the latter category - it's not his fault that he didn't ever have an opportunity to shine in a SB.
Nevertheless I still think AJ makes it because the franchise is now
in it's 10th year, so it would be atleast 15 before he's eligilble and the league will figure it's time for the Houston Texans to have atleast one member in the HOF. And besides AJ would be deserving based upon his onfield performance.

Brisco_County
06-27-2012, 01:16 PM
Hmmm dont know if i agree with this about AJ. Johnson has the highest YPG of any WR in the history of the NFL. Has had 2 back to back 1500 yard seasons. And if he can get healthy again then he should for sure make it.

This alone qualifies him for the Hall of Fame. No one else in history can claim the first stat, and only Jerry Rice can claim the second. Ask the best players and coaches in the league if Andre should be inducted, and I'd be shocked if any said no.

It may sound cliche' to say that I hate the Bleacher Report, but it's not a cliche' when they continue to prove why.

2012Champs
06-27-2012, 01:32 PM
This alone qualifies him for the Hall of Fame. No one else in history can claim the first stat, and only Jerry Rice can claim the second. Ask the best players and coaches in the league if Andre should be inducted, and I'd be shocked if any said no.

It may sound cliche' to say that I hate the Bleacher Report, but it's not a cliche' when they continue to prove why.



You have to have more than those two items. Id love for him to make it but he has a good ways to go first

infantrycak
06-27-2012, 02:41 PM
You have to have more than those two items. Id love for him to make it but he has a good ways to go first

There are four guys above him on the all time yardage list who are currently active and all of them are significantly older. If AJ has even four decent by AJ standard years he will be in the top 5 WR's of all time on yardage.

In addition to the two items mentioned above AJ has been regarded as the best WR in the NFL for part of his career (would have been larger if he had a real QB). Others who are considered part of the logjam have not - Isaac Bruce, Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Irving Fryar, Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward, Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, Joey Galloway, Keyshwan Johnson, etc. - all combined zero All Pro elections. There are another 6-8 guys with only 1 All Pro.

2012Champs
06-27-2012, 03:29 PM
There are four guys above him on the all time yardage list who are currently active and all of them are significantly older. If AJ has even four decent by AJ standard years he will be in the top 5 WR's of all time on yardage.

In addition to the two items mentioned above AJ has been regarded as the best WR in the NFL for part of his career (would have been larger if he had a real QB). Others who are considered part of the logjam have not - Isaac Bruce, Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Irving Fryar, Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward, Rod Smith, Keenan McCardell, Joey Galloway, Keyshwan Johnson, etc. - all combined zero All Pro elections. There are another 6-8 guys with only 1 All Pro.

So what you are saying is that he needs to do more than what he has already?

Carter having a hard time getting in with almost 14k yards 12.6 ypc avg and 130 tds is crazy and should show that Dre has more work to do

ckhouston
06-27-2012, 05:30 PM
Carter having a hard time getting in with almost 14k yards 12.6 ypc avg and 130 tds is crazy and should show that Dre has more work to do

Carter not being in has nothing to do with his stats and everything to do with his attitude.

2012Champs
06-27-2012, 05:59 PM
Carter not being in has nothing to do with his stats and everything to do with his attitude.


Okay with dre and his great attitude he isn't getting in based off of his career to date.

infantrycak
06-27-2012, 06:20 PM
So what you are saying is that he needs to do more than what he has already?

Carter having a hard time getting in with almost 14k yards 12.6 ypc avg and 130 tds is crazy and should show that Dre has more work to do

Last I checked AJ's career isn't over. Of course any discussion of AJ involves him finishing his career. Duh.

Carter isn't in the hall due to off the field issues which are not supposed to be considered but they are.

ObsiWan
06-27-2012, 07:48 PM
"If you have to discuss it or argue about it or justify it with abstract numbers, then he ain't getting in."

Hall of Fame worthiness should need no discussion.

No one will ask if Brady is a Hall of Famer.
They may have to debate Roethelisberger.

No one had to ask if Rice was a Hall of Famer.
Unless he has a string of blow-up years (and we all hope he does), they'll have to debate A.J.

Norg
06-27-2012, 08:21 PM
who do u think the texans in the 02-05 Capers era deserves to be in the Texans HOF ring at least ????

Texan_Bill
06-27-2012, 08:24 PM
The only reason there is even a discussion about Dre is because he played on some crappy teams with a crappy QB *ahem* HWSRN.

Texan_Bill
06-27-2012, 08:28 PM
who do u think the texans in the 02-05 Capers era deserves to be in the Texans HOF ring at least ????

Dre for sure... Domanic Davis should certainly be given consideration since he was asked to do way more than he was drafted for and produced. You could also make an argument for a couple of defensive players early on. Their numbers weren't that good in large part because the offense was inept and they spent waaaay too much time on the field.

TdotTexas2Step
06-27-2012, 10:35 PM
I understand the typical Bleacher Report jab, but in this case, that particular article lays out the information fairly well.

Unfortunately, it's going to be tough for him to get in. No one will care that he played with horrible QBs to start off either. A ring or two that he plays a hand in will definitely help. The best thing for him to do is stay healthy during the remaining years of his career and just continue to post solid numbers.

gtexan02
06-28-2012, 12:30 AM
The only reason there is even a discussion about Dre is because he played on some crappy teams with a crappy QB *ahem* HWSRN.

AJ doesn't score enough
And injuries

Scooter
06-28-2012, 02:51 AM
right now, not even close ... dre doesnt get in if he retires today unless it's a favor to the expansion texans.

if AJ plays until 35-37 years old, minus two for injury, he's in and top 10 in most major categories. also, unlike others being mentioned as waiting to get in, andre has been the best at his position for atleast half a decade. fitz's postseason and megatron's breakout only occur without andre johnson. the discussion only leaves andre johnson when he's off the field. in 2 postseason games dre has 200+ yards (with tj yates, not kurt warner), and as mentioned was on pace for 1600yds this year before injury.

the lack of touchdowns hurts. the lack of postseason success hurts. but as far as i can tell those arent the end all factors to the voters ... will there be a better wide receiver between 2005-2015? as of now andre is the king of that generation. the deciding factor is not what the others do, it's andre's legs IMO. it hurt me watching andre at the end of last year, he had zero movement. if he cant regain his movement, he might not be able to literally keep up. if dre can find his feet and put in healthy work for the next 3-5 years, he'll have dominated the generation and have the numbers to be in the hall ... despite playing in two "pre passing era" offenses in a time of spread "dont touch me" receivers.

gtexan02
06-28-2012, 08:53 AM
I disagree with CJs status. He is the best WR regardless of AJs status. He is playing at an other worldly level right now.

Brisco_County
06-28-2012, 10:08 AM
The discussion would be much different if AJ played for a team with a national fan base like the Cowboys or Eagles. Those teams haven't won Super Bowls during the last nine years, and they receive regular media showcasing and water cooler talk, even during their down years. If AJ had that kind of popularity throughout his career, his induction would be a foregone conclusion.

The Pencil Neck
06-28-2012, 10:47 AM
Right now, AJ doesn't get in. Or if he does, it's after years of haggling and shmoozing.

BUT after our tremendous series of strong post-season performances and myriad of Super Bowls and the incredible numbers AJ puts up in the postseason, he's a lock.

It's just that simple.

The Pencil Neck
06-28-2012, 11:03 AM
Right now, AJ doesn't get in. Or if he does, it's after years of haggling and shmoozing.

BUT after our tremendous series of strong post-season performances and myriad of Super Bowls and the incredible numbers AJ puts up in the postseason, he's a lock.

It's just that simple.

EllisUnit
06-28-2012, 01:43 PM
OK OK AJ whipped Finnegans ass, so he deserves to get in just for that reason. End of story ! :kitten:

The Pencil Neck
06-28-2012, 01:47 PM
OK OK AJ whipped Finnegans ass, so he deserves to get in just for that reason. End of story ! :kitten:

I hadn't considered that. You are, of course, correct.

ObsiWan
06-28-2012, 09:03 PM
OK OK AJ whipped Finnegans ass, so he deserves to get in just for that reason. End of story ! :kitten:

:ohsnap:

damn if I know how, but that completely slipped my mind.
He's a lock.
:kitten:

Texan_Bill
06-28-2012, 09:09 PM
AJ doesn't score enough
And injuries

While true, the NFL will put AJ in so that all 32 teams are represented and he is the best candidate for that honor.

ChampionTexan
06-29-2012, 01:07 AM
While true, the NFL will put AJ in so that all 32 teams are represented and he is the best candidate for that honor.

To get to all 32 teams, they'll also need to add someone from Jacksonville. I don't really think having every team represented matters to anyone making the decisions/casting the votes.

infantrycak
06-29-2012, 01:11 AM
To get to all 32 teams, they'll also need to add someone from Jacksonville. I don't really think having every team represented matters to anyone making the decisions/casting the votes.

Who has Jacksonville had who was ever in the conversation for best at his position? Boselli is the closest they come and his career was cut short.

ChampionTexan
06-29-2012, 01:21 AM
Who has Jacksonville had who was ever in the conversation for best at his position? Boselli is the closest they come and his career was cut short.

I agree that there's never been a serious candidate from the Jags. The post I quoted said AJ will be put in "so all 32 teams are represented". I pointed out even if/when he goes in, that won't be the case unless a Jag is inducted in the meantime. I also added my opinion that I didn't think being the first Texan would factor into AJ's chances.

The Pencil Neck
06-29-2012, 02:30 AM
Who has Jacksonville had who was ever in the conversation for best at his position? Boselli is the closest they come and his career was cut short.

Jimmy Smith with Fred Taylor a distant second. I don't think Boselli played long enough.

If Brunell had been able to get them to the SB both times he made it to the Conference Championship and if they'd won the SB, he'd be in the conversation. But he never won enough or won a SB. He only threw over 4000 yards once in his career and that year he had 19 TDs to 20 INTs. But he's the best QB they've had.

infantrycak
06-29-2012, 11:45 AM
Jimmy Smith with Fred Taylor a distant second.

Very distant. Heck Taylor only made one pro-bowl in his career and neither ever made All Pro.

If Brunell had been able to get them to the SB both times he made it to the Conference Championship and if they'd won the SB, he'd be in the conversation. But he never won enough or won a SB. He only threw over 4000 yards once in his career and that year he had 19 TDs to 20 INTs. But he's the best QB they've had.

Only because of the rings - if he had gotten them. He was OK but not HOF or even close in my book. Another player who was never an All Pro.

I just think you need to be in the discussion for best at your position to get into the hall of fame. In the past few years that discussion is Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.

To be one of the best of all time you need to be best of your time.

The Pencil Neck
06-29-2012, 12:12 PM
Very distant. Heck Taylor only made one pro-bowl in his career and neither ever made All Pro.



Only because of the rings - if he had gotten them. He was OK but not HOF or even close in my book. Another player who was never an All Pro.

I just think you need to be in the discussion for best at your position to get into the hall of fame. In the past few years that discussion is Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.

To be one of the best of all time you need to be best of your time.

Yeah, I wasn't saying any of those guys even deserve to be in the conversation of being in the HOF. I was just trying to remember all the "best" Jag players that a Jag fan might talk about as being in the conversation.

If Brunell had won a couple of SBs, his entire reputation would have been different. But ultimately, he didn't have the stats or the wins or the rings to be more than a slightly above average player.

eriadoc
06-29-2012, 01:10 PM
I find this latest twist in the conversation to be interesting. Let me start out by saying that I personally believe greatness should put you in the HoF before longevity. There's a balance to be struck, but for me, Earl Campbell was one of the three greatest RBs that ever played, even though he was really only great for four years. Other people argue for longevity. I get that. I disagree. Neither of us have a vote on the HoF selection committee, so we can just disagree. But it frames my argument in such a way that lets you know that I think AJ is great enough to be in the HoF. Now, what we're really discussing is whether or not we think the HoF will actually induct him. The reference to Jimmy Smith is interesting, because I don't think anyone outside Jacksonville seriously considers Smith a true HoF candidate. Nonetheless, the HoF selection committee will look at things like longevity and statistics. So let's take a look.

In the 11 seasons that he actually played, Jimmy Smith started 150 games. In nine seasons, AJ has started 122 games. 13.64 vs 13.55 is comparable.

In those 11 seasons, Jimmy Smith caught 862 balls for 12,287 yards. AJ in nine seasons has caught 706 for 9656 yards. That's 5.75 rec/game for Smith and 5.79 rec/game for AJ. Smith averaged 81.91 yards/game and AJ averages 79.15 yards/game. Smith averaged 14.3 yards/catch and AJ averages 13.7.

Smith caught 67 TDs, while AJ has 52 TDs. That is .45 TD/game for Smith and .43 TD/game for AJ.

Do with those numbers what you will, but to this point, Jimmy Smith started more games per season, had more yards per game, had more TDs per game, and had .04 fewer catches per game. That is probably as close a comparison as you can get. Jimmy Smith was slightly more durable and slightly more prolific.

eriadoc
06-29-2012, 01:20 PM
Just as a frame of reference for greatness, Jerry Rice through nine seasons had 708 catches for 11776 yards and 118 TDs. He averaged 5.09 catches per game, 84.72 yards/game, and 16.63 yards per catch. And almost a TD per game.

Oh, and offenses pass more today. Yeah, AJ had Carr throwing to him for the first four years, but his numbers with Schaub don't extrapolate out to Jerry Rice numbers. And that's fine, but can we please drop Rice from any AJ conversations now?

infantrycak
06-29-2012, 02:15 PM
I find this latest twist in the conversation to be interesting. Let me start out by saying that I personally believe greatness should put you in the HoF before longevity. There's a balance to be struck, but for me, Earl Campbell was one of the three greatest RBs that ever played, even though he was really only great for four years. Other people argue for longevity. I get that. I disagree.

Agreed. Roger Staubach is my favorite QB ever and his career was cut short by serving his country.

Yeah, AJ had Carr throwing to him for the first four years, but his numbers with Schaub don't extrapolate out to Jerry Rice numbers. And that's fine, but can we please drop Rice from any AJ conversations now?

Yeah they do and that really isn't the point anyway. We are talking who deserves to be in the HoF not who is the greatest of all time.

By the way are you arguing Montana and Young were just some schlubs or Schaub is HoF material?

eriadoc
06-29-2012, 02:52 PM
By the way are you arguing Montana and Young were just some schlubs or Schaub is HoF material?

Neither, really. Just saying that AJ shouldn't be in the same conversation as Rice. That's not really a knock on AJ. There's the whole chicken-v-egg thing as it relates to QBs and WRs (Rice even made Grbac look good for his short time there), but mostly, the system has a lot to do with statistics. Whatever the reason, AJ has put up stats a helluva lot closer to Jimmy Smith through this point in his career than Rice. It's extremely unlikely that AJ will ever post numbers like Rice, much less post a season where catches 22 TDs or over 1800 yards.

infantrycak
06-29-2012, 03:05 PM
Neither, really. Just saying that AJ shouldn't be in the same conversation as Rice.

Not being rude at all but so f#$king what? It isn't the Hall of Greatest Single Individual of All Time. Jerry Rice is not the benchmark for anyone who gets in. It's about who dominated while they played.

HJam72
06-29-2012, 03:14 PM
Judging individual players by Superbowl wins is a bunch of bullcrap. I don't care how many "experts" do it or for how many centuries, it's still bullcrap.

AJ needs to up the TDs. 'Course, our running scheme and RBs may give him fewer opportunities in the Red-Zone. A third All-Pro selection would go a LONG ways...

eriadoc
06-29-2012, 03:16 PM
Not being rude at all but so f#$king what? It isn't the Hall of Greatest Single Individual of All Time. Jerry Rice is not the benchmark for anyone who gets in. It's about who dominated while they played.

I figured you would gather from my post above that I agree with that. The comment was pretty much directed at the few people who insist on putting AJ and Rice in some comparison, which is unfair to AJ. If you're not one to do that, then disregard. It was an aside to the point of the thread intended for a small audience.

Related to that, however, is the very real recognition that Rice is the only WR that's gotten in easily lately. That part of the evaluation ties into the consideration of who the voters will select, regardless what you and I think about greatness.

eriadoc
06-29-2012, 03:19 PM
Judging individual players by Superbowl wins is a bunch of bullcrap. I don't care how many "experts" do it or for how many centuries, it's still bullcrap.

AJ needs to up the TDs. 'Course, our running scheme and RBs may give him fewer opportunities in the Red-Zone. A third All-Pro selection would go a LONG ways...

Different position and different situation, but something to consider - Dr. Doom had 2 All-Pro selections, went to the Pro Bowl 7 times, and is part of the 1970s All Decade team. Not only is he not in the HoF, but he can't even get a whiff. So All-Pro selections are supposed to indicate the best player at that position, but we have an example where that's not even enough for serious consideration.

The Pencil Neck
06-29-2012, 04:46 PM
Consider this, Lynn Swann. HOF, although it took him a while to get there.

Over his career of 9 seasons, he put up:

96 games started, 115 games played.
336-5462-51

2.92 receptions per game.
47.5 yards per game.
16.25 yards per catch.

Just to refresh, here's AJ:

Over 9 years so far:
122 games started, 122 games played.
706-9656-52

5.79 receptions per game.
79.1 yards per game.
13.7 yards per catch.

Except for Swann's SB rings, AJ whips his little, Steeler ass.

The Pencil Neck
06-29-2012, 04:48 PM
Oh, and AJ is a 5 time pro-bowler and 2-time All Pro while Swann was a pro-bowler 3 times and all-pro 1 time.

eriadoc
06-29-2012, 05:24 PM
You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?

HJam72
06-29-2012, 05:29 PM
I don't think Rice deserves it. :jk:

The Pencil Neck
06-29-2012, 05:47 PM
You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?

I pointed out that the only reason Swann was in there was because of his rings AND that it took him a while to get in.

BUT by your logic, we can't compare anyone currently in the HOF to any current player because the rules are different. There's no one who has played in the "new" era that's made the HOF, yet.

My point was that you can get in with low stats. You don't have to be the greatest that's ever played, like Rice, to get in.

The last two WRs to get in, prior to Rice, were Art Monk and Michael Irvin.

Art Monk: 16 year career. 224/193 games/games started.
940-12721-68

That's 4.2 catches/game, 56.8 yards/game, and 0.3 TDs/game. 3 time pro-bowler, 1 time all-pro.

Michael Irvin: 12 year career. 159/147 games/games started.
750-11904-65

That's 4.7 catches/game, 74.9 yards/game, and 0.41 TDs per game. 5 time pro-bowler, 1 time all-pro.

AJ has better stats than those guys. BUT. No rings. BUT. He's been an all pro more and to more pro-bowls.

I said earlier that I don't think AJ makes it in. But stat-wise, he compares favorably to almost all the guys that are already in there except he doesn't have the rings AND he's playing in a different era.

If AJ gets healthy and has a 3-4 healthy seasons with Schaub (or some other QB who can get him the ball), he could put up some Rice-like numbers. But right now, he hasn't distanced himself enough stat-wise from those guys from other eras.

ChampionTexan
06-29-2012, 05:48 PM
You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?

Here's a good article written by a HoF voter who has apparently received some amount of blowback over Swann's election.

LINK (http://smartfootball.com/stat-history/should-lynn-swann-be-in-the-hall-of-fame-what-do-the-numbers-say)

A couple of what I consider to be the more interesting blurbs attempting to put some perspective between Swann's era, and today's NFL (The article was written in Nov. 2011, so when he says "last year", he's referring to the 2010 season.)
So how does one compare Swann to Welker?

It’s help to compare apples to apples, so let’s just pick one of Swann’s seasons. 1977 was perhaps the lowest point in passing over the last 60 years; it was also the last season played with a 14-game schedule and prior to two key rules changes. That year, teams averaged just 12.8 completions per game against 37.4 runs; last year, those averages were 20.5 and 27.2, respectively. In the ’70s, a much higher percentage of offensive plays ended with the offense unequivocally failing, as sacks and incompletions (and interceptions) were much more common. Last year, wide receivers were catching passes on 24% of all plays that were either rushing plays or passes that were completed (i.e., plays that might gain yards for the offense); in 1977, that number was only 11%.
Some advanced analysis beyond merely looking at receptions and receiving yards is required to compare players across eras. For example, in 2010, Roddy White led the league in percentage of team receptions, catching 31.9% of all Falcons’ completions. Larry Fitzgerald (31.6) and Steve Johnson (27.7%) rounded out the top three. In 1977, New York Jet Clark Gaines (32.4%) led all players in that metric, with Baltimore’s Lydell Mitchell (31.7%) and Bears’ receiver James Scott (31.1%) as the only other players ahead of Swann in percentage of team receptions (Swann was fourth at 28.9%). I’m not sure if there’s a starker example of how different 1977 was from 2010 than that: a fullback on a 3-11 team had a higher percentage of his team’s catches in ’77 than Roddy White did for the Falcons last season.

In short, I agree - I don't think comparing AJ to Swann provides much if any insight on Andre's Hall of Fame chances.

ObsiWan
06-29-2012, 06:07 PM
You're deliberately overlooking a few key points:

1.) They played in completely different eras. Once the league implemented the first of many rules intended to favor the passing game, Stallworth was actually the more prolific receiver. You really can't compare receivers of that era to today's receivers, though Swann didn't even match up to his contemporaries. Which leads us to ...

2.) Swann is in because of those rings. Citing stats on Lynn Swann is useless. Everyone knows he is in because of the rings, in large part.

3.) The HoF loves them some Steelers. Better players from the Cowboys still haven't gotten in, despite the team's success in the 1970s.

4.) Swann sat in front of a camera for years reminding voters of his eligibility. I don't mean to say that he lobbied for it, but his constant visibility no doubt helped.

Stats have nothing to do with Swann's induction into the HoF. Moreover, no modern WR is going to be compared to Swann, nor will he gain any traction by attempting to do so. AJ will be compared to Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. I think the Jimmy Smith comparison I did upthread kind of illustrates how far he has to go.

ETA - I hate, hate, HATE the Steelers, so this should in no way be construed as any sort of defense of Lynn Swann or the Steelers. There's no way Swann deserves to be in the HoF, but there's not much that can be done about it. I don't think Art Monk deserved it either, so what do I know?

Swann, I believe, is the first beneficiary of the NFL Films "highlight reel" era. It's Swann's circus catches - on the big stage - that got him in. As you pointed out, he doesn't have the pro bowl appearances nor the fantasy numbers to put him in. But he caught big, "circus" catches in big games. And NFL Films play those highlights ad nauseum and that got him in.

The Pencil Neck
06-29-2012, 06:09 PM
One thing to consider is that, at this time, AJ is ranking in the 30's all time in receiving types of categories like yards and receptions.

A lot of the guys between him and #1 are guys who have recently retired or are still playing. The number 2 guy in catches is Tony Gonzalez. Guys like Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce are in there.

AJ has a long way to go to really be in the HOF discussion.

But if he stays healthy and has a few more years of 1000 yards AND we win a couple of SBs, then he'll be in the discussion. But we've got to get him that hardware.

infantrycak
06-29-2012, 06:22 PM
One thing to consider is that, at this time, AJ is ranking in the 30's all time in receiving types of categories like yards and receptions.

A lot of the guys between him and #1 are guys who have recently retired or are still playing. The number 2 guy in catches is Tony Gonzalez. Guys like Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce are in there.

AJ has a long way to go to really be in the HOF discussion.

But if he stays healthy and has a few more years of 1000 yards AND we win a couple of SBs, then he'll be in the discussion. But we've got to get him that hardware.

First off chuck Gonzalez out as TE isn't going to be compared to WR. There are only four active WR's in front of AJ on yards and all are at least three years older. If AJ were to gain 4000 yards in the remainder of his career he would be 6th all time. Barring an injury that does not appear to be a stretch IMO. If he and Schaub stay healthy for one season we are going to see another 1500+, pro-bowl, all pro season.

HJam72
06-29-2012, 06:26 PM
First off chuck Gonzalez out as TE isn't going to be compared to WR. There are only four active WR's in front of AJ on yards and all are at least three years older. If AJ were to gain 4000 yards in the remainder of his career he would be 6th all time. Barring an injury that does not appear to be a stretch IMO. If he and Schaub stay healthy for one season we are going to see another 1500+, pro-bowl, all pro season.

....and, if we see that, we may see a Superbowl win... :texanbill:

Texecutioner
06-29-2012, 06:40 PM
Swann, I believe, is the first beneficiary of the NFL Films "highlight reel" era. It's Swann's circus catches - on the big stage - that got him in. As you pointed out, he doesn't have the pro bowl appearances nor the fantasy numbers to put him in. But he caught big, "circus" catches in big games. And NFL Films play those highlights ad nauseum and that got him in.

This ^^^^

Swann is well known for his huge post season games where he made these huge catches that were game changers. That, and of course his rings he won with the Steelers and everything else. I personally don't think he should be in there though.


AJ will get in I think. By the time he retires he'll have questionable numbers for it for today's era, but I think the voters will remember just how great AJ was from year to year and how many years he had to play with Carr. AJ is so respected everywhere that I just have a hard time imagining him not making it in.

drs23
06-29-2012, 08:11 PM
This ^^^^

Swann is well known for his huge post season games where he made these huge catches that were game changers. That, and of course his rings he won with the Steelers and everything else. I personally don't think he should be in there though.


AJ will get in I think. By the time he retires he'll have questionable numbers for it for today's era, but I think the voters will remember just how great AJ was from year to year and how many years he had to play with Carr. AJ is so respected everywhere that I just have a hard time imagining him not making it in.

I agree Tex and I hope we're right.

Norg
06-29-2012, 08:39 PM
Dre for sure... Domanic Davis should certainly be given consideration since he was asked to do way more than he was drafted for and produced. You could also make an argument for a couple of defensive players early on. Their numbers weren't that good in large part because the offense was inept and they spent waaaay too much time on the field.


yeah back in thoes days i wouldnt say our D was not world beaters but they were deff better then our Offensive

the only two players on our O back then that were any good was our RB and WR but without a QB they couldnt do it alone

Remember when Sage use to come in for David it seemed like our O was ran better just saying

Insideop
07-01-2012, 01:55 PM
AJ should be the 1st Texan in the HOF. But, I keep getting this sinking feeling, that with the number of his injuries and his age, he may end up like Bagwell did with the Stros. That by the time the Texans make it to the Super Bowl AJ may be just an afterthought (Too banged up or too old to make any difference.). Of course it won't matter to AJ if they win and he gets a ring. And that should seal the HOF for him. They have to hurry though. I think the window for AJ is maybe another 2 to 3 years at his current ability.

TheMatrix31
07-01-2012, 04:32 PM
I hate judging on numbers because numbers can be skewed for so many reasons.

Everyone knows Andre has been the best WR in football for YEARS. At the very worst, 1a.

When you're dominant at your position for that long of a time, and your talents are what they are, you should go into the HOF, numbers be damned.

2012Champs
07-02-2012, 10:39 AM
First off chuck Gonzalez out as TE isn't going to be compared to WR. There are only four active WR's in front of AJ on yards and all are at least three years older. If AJ were to gain 4000 yards in the remainder of his career he would be 6th all time. Barring an injury that does not appear to be a stretch IMO. If he and Schaub stay healthy for one season we are going to see another 1500+, pro-bowl, all pro season.



he has averaged under 1k yards per season in the last 10 season, scrap last year if you want and the average moves to 1018 per. While Id love to see him hang another 1500 + season the truth is he only has two out of 10 seasons played so Im not sure its that easy to say if he and Schaub stay healthy he will hang another. He is getting older so lets not over look that

b0ng
07-02-2012, 12:37 PM
I hate judging on numbers because numbers can be skewed for so many reasons.

Everyone knows Andre has been the best WR in football for YEARS. At the very worst, 1a.

When you're dominant at your position for that long of a time, and your talents are what they are, you should go into the HOF, numbers be damned.

Define "Everyone".

TheMatrix31
07-03-2012, 07:41 AM
Everyone as in those in the football world that's not a ****ing moron.

ObsiWan
07-03-2012, 08:36 AM
I hate judging on numbers because numbers can be skewed for so many reasons.

Everyone knows Andre has been the best WR in football for YEARS. At the very worst, 1a.

When you're dominant at your position for that long of a time, and your talents are what they are, you should go into the HOF, numbers be damned.

While I feel where you're coming from, the truth is that its SUSTAINED PERFORMANCE that gets you into the Hall. Now one can gage sustained performance in at several ways:
1. Straight up numbers: Was the guy at or near the top of whatever performance stats important to his position year after year after year? This is where I kind of agree with Matrix because if you're in the right "system" your numbers can be inflated.

2. Post-season performance: Did the guy lead his team to post-season success and perform well on the big stage (see Lynn Swann)?

3. Did the guy's performance "change the game" relative to his position or if not a game changer, was he dominant at his position over the course of his career? If he was he should have a boat load of All Pro or Pro Bowls on his resume'.

You guys can probably think of others, but these are the three that spring instantly to mind when I think Hall of Fame.

When healthy, there's no question that A.J. is one of the dominant forces at WR. But he lacks the pure numbers and with only two post-season games on his resume', he's borderline at best ....at this point. If we get to the post-season and A.J. shines in each game, the pendulum will swing in his direction.

The Pencil Neck
07-03-2012, 11:12 AM
While I feel where you're coming from, the truth is that its SUSTAINED PERFORMANCE that gets you into the Hall. Now one can gage sustained performance in at several ways:
1. Straight up numbers: Was the guy at or near the top of whatever performance stats important to his position year after year after year? This is where I kind of agree with Matrix because if you're in the right "system" your numbers can be inflated.

2. Post-season performance: Did the guy lead his team to post-season success and perform well on the big stage (see Lynn Swann)?

3. Did the guy's performance "change the game" relative to his position or if not a game changer, was he dominant at his position over the course of his career? If he was he should have a boat load of All Pro or Pro Bowls on his resume'.

You guys can probably think of others, but these are the three that spring instantly to mind when I think Hall of Fame.

When healthy, there's no question that A.J. is one of the dominant forces at WR. But he lacks the pure numbers and with only two post-season games on his resume', he's borderline at best ....at this point. If we get to the post-season and A.J. shines in each game, the pendulum will swing in his direction.

This is why I included all-pro and pro-bowls in my stats. AJ has put up some good numbers, although he has to continue putting them up. But he's already got some pretty good all-pro/pro-bowl numbers that put him up there with guys already in the league.

If he can have a couple of great seasons and a few more good seasons after that, AND if we can get him into the playoffs healthy and have him dominate, he should get into the HOF. Because after that many seasons of sustained performance, he'd be in the upper echelon in all those categories.

But we need to get him some more playoff wins and a SB or three.

eriadoc
07-03-2012, 11:37 AM
Everyone as in those in the football world that's not a ****ing moron.

Soooo .... none of the HoF voters. Got it. :D

I think based on greatness, AJ should get in. I think based on the random ass, inconsistent and totally FUBAR criteria that the HOF voters use, AJ doesn't get in. So it doesn't matter what I think. I also think Dr. Doom should be in the HoF.

drs23
07-03-2012, 06:32 PM
Soooo .... none of the HoF voters. Got it. :D

I think based on greatness, AJ should get in. I think based on the random ass, inconsistent and totally FUBAR criteria that the HOF voters use, AJ doesn't get in. So it doesn't matter what I think. I also think Dr. Doom should be in the HoF.

He should be there for sure. A baller if I've ever seen one. Still looks good today according to a recent Wiki photo. Searched but couldn't confirm and my memory is somewhat shaky but I'll go with #52.

powda
07-04-2012, 12:29 AM
Cant believe no one has mentioned matt freaking stevens or fred "dont tase me bro" weary. Truly texans all time greats. Its gonna be a while yet fellas.