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View Full Version : Kuharsky blog: 2013 Cap Carnage...A. Smith and K. Walter


GP
06-19-2012, 05:12 PM
Texans: Defensive end Antonio Smith has been a key player on the teamís defensive front. I canít see them parting with him, but I didnít see the Eric Winston move either. Smith is due $6 million and if fourth-rounder Jared Crick pans out quickly, there could be some strain on Smith. Kevin Walter is due $3.5 million in 2013, and after drafting DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin the team could be ready to move on at receiver.

Link to full blog entry HERE (http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/37880/if-there-is-cap-carnage-in-2013).

Well, I don't know what the cap savings would be to cut Walter's $3.5 million salary (scheduled for 2013).

What is the cap implications IF he is cut THIS year before reg season begins??? What is the cap implications if he stays this year but is cut at end of 2012 season???

As far as A. Smith goes, yeah...I see a storm brewing if Crick flashes in what limited snaps he gets in 2012. $6 million for A. Smith for 2013? Not gonna' be here in 2013 unless it would only save us a small portion off cap space to cut him--Anybody know his cap hit if he's cut after 2012?

Nawzer
06-19-2012, 05:17 PM
Antonio Smith is my no.1 candidate for next year's cap casualty.

Lucky
06-19-2012, 05:30 PM
Smith still has $5 million of signing bonus that's not amortized. $2.5 million will count against the 2012 cap, the final $2.5 million against the 2013 cap. Cutting Smith in 2013 would realize a cap savings of $3.5 million. But, you (or Kuharsky) are assuming a 4th round pick will be able to effectively replace Smith. Big assumption. The real question is whether Smith can be replaced for less than $3.5 million in the FA market in 2013. I doubt that, which is why I see Smith getting a back loaded extension in 2013, which will lower his cap value.

GP
06-19-2012, 07:36 PM
...The real question is whether Smith can be replaced for less than $3.5 million in the FA market in 2013. I doubt that, which is why I see Smith getting a back loaded extension in 2013, which will lower his cap value.

So the savings (in terms of cap relief) would not be enough to warrant playing hardball with him nor relying upon his replacement if we went the route of cutting him or pissed him off by our dealings with him.

Is there a Vet Minimum issue with his potential new salary, though? Can it be adjusted however we want or is it rigid in terms of how much of it can be back loaded? Would the Texans be able to land a deal that's good for both him AND the Texans...or will a friendly deal "now" end up being a bit poisonous in the last years of the deal (causing delayed cap hell)?

I know, I'm full of questions. LOL.

GP
06-19-2012, 07:39 PM
I think Kevin Walter is a cut either this year or early 2013.

Granted, my statement is based on his age vs. the youth we're drafting for that position (will likely take at least a WR or two in 2013 draft, IMO). I just don't see him surviving here past this upcoming 2012 season.

Rey
06-19-2012, 08:19 PM
I think Kevin Walter is a cut either this year or early 2013.

Granted, my statement is based on his age vs. the youth we're drafting for that position (will likely take at least a WR or two in 2013 draft, IMO). I just don't see him surviving here past this upcoming 2012 season.

I said a while ago that I wouldn't be shocked if he was cut, but I think it'd take some pretty amazing circumstances that aren't likely to happen.

He's the only fully healthy vet on the team right now at wr.

badboy
06-19-2012, 08:32 PM
Smith still has $5 million of signing bonus that's not amortized. $2.5 million will count against the 2012 cap, the final $2.5 million against the 2013 cap. Cutting Smith in 2013 would realize a cap savings of $3.5 million. But, you (or Kuharsky) are assuming a 4th round pick will be able to effectively replace Smith. Big assumption. The real question is whether Smith can be replaced for less than $3.5 million in the FA market in 2013. I doubt that, which is why I see Smith getting a back loaded extension in 2013, which will lower his cap value.Why did not Ric Smith try to do that already as we have been in cap hell since signing Manning and Joseph? Seems he could have kept Winston or at least Brisiel & extended Smith. I'm not arguing just bringing it up.

badboy
06-19-2012, 08:35 PM
I think Kevin Walter is a cut either this year or early 2013.

Granted, my statement is based on his age vs. the youth we're drafting for that position (will likely take at least a WR or two in 2013 draft, IMO). I just don't see him surviving here past this upcoming 2012 season.I don't know. Kubiak is supposedly enthralled by Walter's good hands and blocking.

Lucky
06-19-2012, 10:49 PM
Seems he could have kept Winston or at least Brisiel & extended Smith. I'm not arguing just bringing it up.
I just don't think the Texans wanted to keep Winston and Brisiel at those prices. Winston had regressed as a pass blocker and Brisiel had injuries the past 3 seasons. Good players, yes. But not $4million+/year players.

Corrosion
06-19-2012, 10:53 PM
I don't know. Kubiak is supposedly enthralled by Walter's good hands and blocking.

Year before last Walter lead the NFL in catch percentage Vs targets - catching something like 67% of the balls thrown in his direction.


Just sayin ....:tiphat:

eriadoc
06-19-2012, 10:54 PM
I don't know. Kubiak is supposedly enthralled by Walter's good hands and blocking.

Which frankly he has. The question on Walter is why they don't throw the ball to him. He catches a very, very high percentage of balls thrown his way. So is he not getting open? Does the scheme call for him to run screen plays for the other guys? What? I really hope Walter stays through this season if only to see the All-22 film that's being offered this year and answer those questions.

The Pencil Neck
06-19-2012, 10:59 PM
Which frankly he has. The question on Walter is why they don't throw the ball to him. He catches a very, very high percentage of balls thrown his way. So is he not getting open? Does the scheme call for him to run screen plays for the other guys? What? I really hope Walter stays through this season if only to see the All-22 film that's being offered this year and answer those questions.

He's been playing injured, at least last season and possibly the one before. IIRC, that injury is decreasing his ability to get separation so he's not getting open and the QBs aren't expecting him to get open so they're looking elsewhere.

I'm reporting that as what I've heard (and surmised from that) and not claiming that it's accurate or true.

GP
06-19-2012, 11:14 PM
I just don't think the Texans wanted to keep Winston and Brisiel at those prices. Winston had regressed as a pass blocker and Brisiel had injuries the past 3 seasons. Good players, yes. But not $4million+/year players.

Which begs the question...is Walter a $3.5 million-per-year WR?

That number is awfully close to Winston/Brisiel money.

infantrycak
06-19-2012, 11:14 PM
Which frankly he has. The question on Walter is why they don't throw the ball to him. He catches a very, very high percentage of balls thrown his way. So is he not getting open?

Walter does not draw double coverage but I think Kubiak often designs plays for him to clear open zones and then block which is why we see the TE's with nobody around them so often. For a spitballing example - AJ drags a couple defenders with him up the left sideline, Walter pushes the CB up the right to right where he feels the transition in the zone is and then slants to the interior forcing the transition decision of either the CB following him or the safety taking him while OD comes off a block and leaks out into the flat where Walter and the CB had been. So now OD is 8 yards wide open and heading down field building up steam to hit the safety for another 5 yards of gain. The design of the play is for OD to be the first read with a second read on Walter if the transition is blown. He gets open, runs precise routes and has crisp cuts but I just think they use him more strategically to create mismatches rather than just a go out there and beat your guy on this route type of WR.

mussop
06-19-2012, 11:59 PM
Antonio Smith is my no.1 candidate for next year's cap casualty.

surprised no mention of OD. He needs a big year or he is number 1 IMO.

dalemurphy
06-20-2012, 12:48 AM
surprised no mention of OD. He needs a big year or he is number 1 IMO.

KW is gone next year... or, he'll do a favorable restructure. A.Smith will be interesting.

My understanding is that the cap will take a significant jump next season. The Texans clearly made tough decisions this year in preparation for next season and all the contracts coming due... Remember, Quin, Butler, McCain, Cody are all free agents as well. I know those aren't "A" list players, but they aren't guys that can simply be replaced with mid round rookies or unwanted veteran free agents either.

It appears the Texans front office has a grasp on the situation. If they are able to re-sign a couple key guys before this year, it will make their franchise tag more valuable and give them more bargaining power heading into 2013. So, I think getting a couple guys signed now is a huge key... Remember that guys like Barwin, Quin, McCain are all playing from pretty small rookie deals. So, tearing up the last year of those deals and giving them a multiple million dollar signing bonus is going to be attractive to those guys.

Lucky
06-20-2012, 01:04 AM
Which begs the question...is Walter a $3.5 million-per-year WR?

That number is awfully close to Winston/Brisiel money.
If Walter doesn't put up numbers this year, he'll be asked to take another pay cut. His 2012 salary was reduced from $3.5 million to $2 million.

ChampionTexan
06-20-2012, 01:12 AM
My understanding is that the cap will take a significant jump next season.

You might want to re-think your understanding.

The salary cap slightly increased to $120.6 million from $120.37 last season. Several team management officials said it's not projected to jump much in 2013, prompting one general manager to say there could be "carnage" for some big-contract players

LINK (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d829ee5ba/article/stagnant-salary-cap-could-cause-carnage-in-nfl-next-season)

There's a difference of opinion between owners and players on where the salary cap will be next year (and 2014 for that matter), but the owners are claiming between the artificially propped up cap for 2011 and 2012, and the increase in benefits that will be paid, the salary number will be basically flat next season. I'm thinking in this issue, the owners are very probably right, and the players are very probably in for a disappointment.

Malloy
06-20-2012, 01:29 AM
Walter does not draw double coverage but I think Kubiak often designs plays for him to clear open zones and then block which is why we see the TE's with nobody around them so often. For a spitballing example - AJ drags a couple defenders with him up the left sideline, Walter pushes the CB up the right to right where he feels the transition in the zone is and then slants to the interior forcing the transition decision of either the CB following him or the safety taking him while OD comes off a block and leaks out into the flat where Walter and the CB had been. So now OD is 8 yards wide open and heading down field building up steam to hit the safety for another 5 yards of gain. The design of the play is for OD to be the first read with a second read on Walter if the transition is blown. He gets open, runs precise routes and has crisp cuts but I just think they use him more strategically to create mismatches rather than just a go out there and beat your guy on this route type of WR.

Very good point!

ObsiWan
06-20-2012, 02:56 AM
If Walter doesn't put up numbers this year, he'll be asked to take another pay cut. His 2012 salary was reduced from $3.5 million to $2 million.

Yeah... I thought he'd already taken a paycut...

Is any of that guaranteed money?

Corrosion
06-20-2012, 04:33 AM
Walter does not draw double coverage but I think Kubiak often designs plays for him to clear open zones and then block which is why we see the TE's with nobody around them so often. For a spitballing example - AJ drags a couple defenders with him up the left sideline, Walter pushes the CB up the right to right where he feels the transition in the zone is and then slants to the interior forcing the transition decision of either the CB following him or the safety taking him while OD comes off a block and leaks out into the flat where Walter and the CB had been. So now OD is 8 yards wide open and heading down field building up steam to hit the safety for another 5 yards of gain. The design of the play is for OD to be the first read with a second read on Walter if the transition is blown. He gets open, runs precise routes and has crisp cuts but I just think they use him more strategically to create mismatches rather than just a go out there and beat your guy on this route type of WR.

I agree with that ....

When plays are designed for Walter .... He makes the most of them. Case in point the Cincy game with the nasty route combination where Walter runs a short slant under the TE who ran an out route the opposite direction. Result ? Walter is wide open for a score .... Dont think Ive ever seen a guy that wide open that close to the goal line .... at least in the NFL.


Here's a video of the play (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnd_zEvso4c)- poor quality but the only one I could find without the entire drive.


This video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=D4VOLPxKlis&NR=1) shows a much better view of the route combination but is of the entire drive. Play starts at 6:10ish of the video.

Thats just another example of Kubiak's route combinations being absolutely brilliant. That was also the only time all year I recall that combination being run - He saved it for when it mattered.

Norg
06-20-2012, 04:59 AM
I like KW after all he was the player who caught the ball to get us into the playoffs

TimeKiller
06-20-2012, 08:52 AM
I agree with that ....

When plays are designed for Walter .... He makes the most of them. Case in point the Cincy game with the nasty route combination where Walter runs a short slant under the TE who ran an out route the opposite direction. Result ? Walter is wide open for a score .... Dont think Ive ever seen a guy that wide open that close to the goal line .... at least in the NFL.


Here's a video of the play (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnd_zEvso4c)- poor quality but the only one I could find without the entire drive.


This video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=D4VOLPxKlis&NR=1) shows a much better view of the route combination but is of the entire drive. Play starts at 6:10ish of the video.

Thats just another example of Kubiak's route combinations being absolutely brilliant. That was also the only time all year I recall that combination being run - He saved it for when it mattered.

How huge were Yates, OD and Walter on that drive? OD started, Walter moved the chains prior to grabbing the TD and Yates was throwin lasers like he didn't know any better. Pacman Jones....lol....when you mug a guy, the first thing you do is walk away. Not throw your hands up and look at the ref! GUILTY!!!

KMG 365
06-20-2012, 11:29 AM
You might want to re-think your understanding.



LINK (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d829ee5ba/article/stagnant-salary-cap-could-cause-carnage-in-nfl-next-season)

There's a difference of opinion between owners and players on where the salary cap will be next year (and 2014 for that matter), but the owners are claiming between the artificially propped up cap for 2011 and 2012, and the increase in benefits that will be paid, the salary number will be basically flat next season. I'm thinking in this issue, the owners are very probably right, and the players are very probably in for a disappointment.

Daniel Kaplan (@dkaplanSBJ) tweeted out a couple days ago the projected salary cap numbers for the next few years. They're going to be pretty flat through 2015.

2013 -- $121m
2014 -- $122m
2015 -- $125m
2016 -- $130m

Looks like the Texans will be in salary cap hell for quite a while.

Corrosion
06-20-2012, 01:01 PM
Daniel Kaplan (@dkaplanSBJ) tweeted out a couple days ago the projected salary cap numbers for the next few years. They're going to be pretty flat through 2015.

2013 -- $121m
2014 -- $122m
2015 -- $125m
2016 -- $130m

Looks like the Texans will be in salary cap hell for quite a while.

Im not sold on those numbers. The cap is rumored to rise significantly over the next few years with the new TV deal.



Read an article (http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/37621/a-look-ahead-at-2013-cap-situations) last night stating the Texans would have roughly $24.8m in cap space for next season while the Dolts would have a league high $43m.

Here's a link by John Clayton (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8016480/nfl-salary-cap-carryover-rewards-smart-management) discussing the cap space of each team. Clayton does state that the cap may not rise by much over the next three seasons.

Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith had a tough 2012, deciding to keep Arian Foster and Chris Myers, but it cost the Texans Eric Winston and Mario Williams. The Texans are fifth on the list with $24.8 million of room.

badboy
06-20-2012, 01:44 PM
Year before last Walter lead the NFL in catch percentage Vs targets - catching something like 67% of the balls thrown in his direction.


Just sayin ....:tiphat:Thanks for supporting what I was saying. I don't see Walter being cut until we have someone who can give us almost same efficiency. Can't just look at contract and his age.

The Pencil Neck
06-20-2012, 01:48 PM
I don't think we were in as much cap hell this year as a lot of people think. I think that Rick Smith was just positioning us for the future by jettisoning guys that were going to be problems in the near future and creating room on the roster for some of the younger, cheaper guys.

I think we're going to be set up OK for the future although I expect us to see some more name players shown to the door (and SheTexan have more rants about it. :) )

Although I question the strategy of getting rid of the entire right side of our line, I think getting rid of Winston was probably a good, pro-active move. As was getting rid of Mario and Demeco. (Brisiel and Dreessen, I'm not so sure about but we'll see.)

It's a hard-line strategy. He's got to draft well and sign the right FAs to make it work. But I think it's a reaction to the new salary cap rules and limitations and a good overall plan.

badboy
06-20-2012, 01:48 PM
Which frankly he has. The question on Walter is why they don't throw the ball to him. He catches a very, very high percentage of balls thrown his way. So is he not getting open? Does the scheme call for him to run screen plays for the other guys? What? I really hope Walter stays through this season if only to see the All-22 film that's being offered this year and answer those questions.Schaub seems to go thru different "favorite" receivers (as do most QBs). Not too long ago Walter was getting the ball but that seems to have slakened some. I don't know the reason for it. He doesn't excite you with his after catch moves but he is pretty accurate at bringing it in; often in the middle of the defense. If Martin can give us that okay maybe cut Walter but not just for the bucks.

badboy
06-20-2012, 01:51 PM
Walter does not draw double coverage but I think Kubiak often designs plays for him to clear open zones and then block which is why we see the TE's with nobody around them so often. For a spitballing example - AJ drags a couple defenders with him up the left sideline, Walter pushes the CB up the right to right where he feels the transition in the zone is and then slants to the interior forcing the transition decision of either the CB following him or the safety taking him while OD comes off a block and leaks out into the flat where Walter and the CB had been. So now OD is 8 yards wide open and heading down field building up steam to hit the safety for another 5 yards of gain. The design of the play is for OD to be the first read with a second read on Walter if the transition is blown. He gets open, runs precise routes and has crisp cuts but I just think they use him more strategically to create mismatches rather than just a go out there and beat your guy on this route type of WR.Exactly, OD get the reception but it was created by Walter.

Ole Miss Texan
06-20-2012, 02:24 PM
I don't think we were in as much cap hell this year as a lot of people think. I think that Rick Smith was just positioning us for the future by jettisoning guys that were going to be problems in the near future and creating room on the roster for some of the younger, cheaper guys.

I think we're going to be set up OK for the future although I expect us to see some more name players shown to the door (and SheTexan have more rants about it. :) )

Although I question the strategy of getting rid of the entire right side of our line, I think getting rid of Winston was probably a good, pro-active move. As was getting rid of Mario and Demeco. (Brisiel and Dreessen, I'm not so sure about but we'll see.)

It's a hard-line strategy. He's got to draft well and sign the right FAs to make it work. But I think it's a reaction to the new salary cap rules and limitations and a good overall plan.
MSR. I think the hard work of Rick Smith has finally begun to pay off. Clearly, improvement must be ongoing and his work is far from done.

The strategy of the Texans' current Front Office has been to build through the draft and pick up free agents of good value. There has been plenty of gripe by message board members towards Rick Smith, but there is certainly NO question that the roster is light years ahead of when he took over. This is not intended to be a "Rick Smith" post but he's responsible for building the roster and managing the salary cap. Much has been talked about Wade Phillips and the addition of "his" players.... and it's much deserved. But this is the ultimate team game from on the field to behind closed doors. Kubiak, Smith and Wade all have to work together to accomplish things and all share the blame for failures.

Sticking to the Salary Cap aspect of things: Guys, we wouldn't be in this "salary cap hell" some call it if we didn't have good players. We're not overpaying for veteran washups any more. We're paying a lot because we have some of the best players at their respective positions. Period. We can gripe and complain about not going for the free agent splashes but it's because we're finally at a point where our own guys' contracts are up and they ARE the big name free agents. Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Duane Brown, Connor Barwin, Chris Myers, Matt Schaub, etc. etc. As fans we get complacent with re-signing the same players but part of being a great team is having the roster of those guys that you WANT to re-sign.

On the flip side, there's going to be hard decisions like trading Demeco and cutting Winston. To me, that's a sign that we've finally made it to the big leagues. When we start replacing the guys we once thought were great, with the guys we've had on the squad that are developing up. I'm very very high on the work that Kubiak and Smith have been doing and where we're at as a team.

I love this strategy but for it to keep working means we HAVE to continue drafting well. Getting these contributors and paying them "peanuts" during the first few years is vital to having a GREAT team and being able to manage the salary cap.

ChampionTexan
06-20-2012, 02:54 PM
Im not sold on those numbers. The cap is rumored to rise significantly over the next few years with the new TV deal.



Read an article (http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/37621/a-look-ahead-at-2013-cap-situations) last night stating the Texans would have roughly $24.8m in cap space for next season while the Dolts would have a league high $43m.

Here's a link by John Clayton (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8016480/nfl-salary-cap-carryover-rewards-smart-management) discussing the cap space of each team. Clayton does state that the cap may not rise by much over the next three seasons.

I definitely think this is on target as it relates to 2013, and very possibly beyond.

Here's another article by Clayton going into why the rise in the cap number may not coincide with the increase in television revenues.

LINK (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7744901/nfl-soaring-revenues-coincide-salary-cap-growth)
If that sounds amazing, consider this: The salary cap in 2009 was $123 million, higher than what is projected to be in 2015.

Where did all the salary-cap money go?

The answer resides in what has happened during the first two seasons of the new collective bargaining agreement. When the management council and the NFL Players Association ran the numbers from the percentage of money going to the players, the salary cap in 2011 was supposed to be less than $120 million. It could have been as low as around $116 million.

To put more salary money into free agency last season, the union was able to shift some of the benefit money into salary money. The result was a $120.375 million cap in 2011.

He goes on to state that the 2012 salary cap would have been more in the $113.5 Million range if not for shifting of dollars from one category to another. In otherwords, the 2011 and 2012 cap amounts are artificially inflated to avoid absorbing the impact of the new CBA all at once.

Now perhaps they can find a way to continue to juggle money going forward, but obviously, there's only so much juggling that can be done, and I believe the NFL management is smart enough to understand that.

Corrosion
06-20-2012, 04:29 PM
Thanks for supporting what I was saying. I don't see Walter being cut until we have someone who can give us almost same efficiency. Can't just look at contract and his age.

I was just clearing up the "Why" Kubiak is "enthralled by Walter's good hands." He has good reason.

He could very well be a cap casualty next season .... but you have to remember he already took a paycut this season. I have to wonder if they have a gentlemans agreement to honor that final year.


Exactly, OD get the reception but it was created by Walter.

As has been pointed out by you , Cak and others .... Walter does a lot of the dirty work that goes un-noticed by the casual observer.

What all these plays designed for him to clear space or be the decoy do is make defenses "go to sleep" on Walter then you have a critical situation where Walter is the primary target .... even when #80 is on the field.


For all the complaints about Walter needing to be replaced , that guy is going to be missed something terrible when he's gone because of all those little things he does.
Gary will have a hell of a time replacing him .... Great hands , great route runner , excellent blocker and unselfish enough to wait for his shots. Not many guy's at a position full of diva's with those traits .... This team is lucky to have both he and #80.

The Medic01
06-20-2012, 04:32 PM
I was just clearing up the "Why" Kubiak is "enthralled by Walter's good hands." He has good reason.

He could very well be a cap casualty next season .... but you have to remember he already took a paycut this season. I have to wonder if they have a gentlemans agreement to honor that final year.




As has been pointed out by you , Cak and others .... Walter does a lot of the dirty work that goes un-noticed by the casual observer.

What all these plays designed for him to clear space or be the decoy do is make defenses "go to sleep" on Walter then you have a critical situation where Walter is the primary target .... even when #80 is on the field.


For all the complaints about Walter needing to be replaced , that guy is going to be missed something terrible when he's gone because of all those little things he does.
Gary will have a hell of a time replacing him .... Great hands , great route runner , excellent blocker and unselfish enough to wait for his shots. Not many guy's at a position full of diva's with those traits .... This team is lucky to have both he and #80.
It's not like Andre doesn't block.

Corrosion
06-20-2012, 04:40 PM
It's not like Andre doesn't block.

I never said he didnt. #80 is obviously one of the games top recievers and does all those little things , same as Walter does .... Just pointing out that Walter is very underrated by many many Texans fans who dont understand the game in great detail.

NastyNate
06-21-2012, 01:23 PM
I never said he didnt. #80 is obviously one of the games top recievers and does all those little things , same as Walter does .... Just pointing out that Walter is very underrated by many many Texans fans who dont understand the game in great detail.

I love me some KW, but watching the hail mary just hit him in the tricep and fall to the turf in the Ravens playoff game gives me a sad.

El Tejano
06-21-2012, 01:36 PM
I love me some KW, but watching the hail mary just hit him in the tricep and fall to the turf in the Ravens playoff game gives me a sad.

Me too. If he turns around, he catches it.

Rey
06-21-2012, 01:40 PM
I never said he didnt. #80 is obviously one of the games top recievers and does all those little things , same as Walter does .... Just pointing out that Walter is very underrated by many many Texans fans who dont understand the game in great detail.

KW is fine as a #2a or #2b as long as you have another receiver that can stretch defenses and make catches all over the field.

ArlingtonTexan
06-21-2012, 01:53 PM
I never said he didnt. #80 is obviously one of the games top recievers and does all those little things , same as Walter does .... Just pointing out that Walter is very underrated by many many Texans fans who dont understand the game in great detail.

Really every time Kevin Walter is mentioned this same point has been made by at least one poster. anyone not thinking of his overall role when evaluating Walter is just not paying attention either on the field or to other posters on the board.

Ole Miss Texan
06-21-2012, 02:22 PM
Walter doesn't do what fans want him to do and that's put up a lot of catches, touchdowns, fantasy points.

What Walter does do is everything the coaches ask of him and he directly contributes to the x's and o's success of a play.

Coaches have a vote, fans don't.

Kubiak & Smith asked him to take a pay cut last year and he did. From $3.5MM to $2MM salary. It wouldn't surprise me if they asked him to take a pay cut again. What would surprise me if they flat out released him and went with all unproven WRs (after AJ).

drs23
06-21-2012, 03:02 PM
Walter doesn't do what fans want him to do and that's put up a lot of catches, touchdowns, fantasy points.

What Walter does do is everything the coaches ask of him and he directly contributes to the x's and o's success of a play.

Coaches have a vote, fans don't.

Kubiak & Smith asked him to take a pay cut last year and he did. From $3.5MM to $2MM salary. It wouldn't surprise me if they asked him to take a pay cut again. What would surprise me if they flat out released him and went with all unproven WRs (after AJ).

I don't see that happening OMT. I, like many others here, just can't see Gary going into battle with AJ and 4 rooks being thrown into the fire ah-la Kareem'esque. I really hope LaStar Jean comes on quickly. At least he has a couple of years in the system and it really made my ears hard when the DBs were making statements like "he's unecoverable". That sounds legit coming from team mates and then TC made comments about her observations which backed up what the players said. How sweet it would be to have another 'diamond in the rough' ferreted out by Rick Smith. Because we all know he's clueless and a worthless POS.

Last line is obviously :sarcasm:

badboy
06-21-2012, 03:57 PM
Im not sold on those numbers. The cap is rumored to rise significantly over the next few years with the new TV deal.



Read an article (http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/37621/a-look-ahead-at-2013-cap-situations) last night stating the Texans would have roughly $24.8m in cap space for next season while the Dolts would have a league high $43m.

Here's a link by John Clayton (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8016480/nfl-salary-cap-carryover-rewards-smart-management) discussing the cap space of each team. Clayton does state that the cap may not rise by much over the next three seasons.Corrosion, I keep getting both sides also. The increases ares upposedly minimal however, the new TV deal is bringing in bunches for each team. If the cap is based upon total revenues and said revenue (include radio) goes up like $2 billion over the contract, why is cap only nufged upwards? Lots of confusion and probably misinformation.

badboy
06-21-2012, 04:09 PM
I don't see that happening OMT. I, like many others here, just can't see Gary going into battle with AJ and 4 rooks being thrown into the fire ah-la Kareem'esque. I really hope LaStar Jean comes on quickly. At least he has a couple of years in the system and it really made my ears hard when the DBs were making statements like "he's unecoverable". That sounds legit coming from team mates and then TC made comments about her observations which backed up what the players said. How sweet it would be to have another 'diamond in the rough' ferreted out by Rick Smith. Because we all know he's clueless and a worthless POS.

Last line is obviously :sarcasm:It has been suggested Jean could be the eventual replacement for AJ. That would be huge if true. If he could become #2 in deed not just name that would be fantastic in itself. That would allow coaches time to work with Posier. i would love to erase WR as my #1 need in 2013 draft.

drs23
06-21-2012, 05:08 PM
It has been suggested Jean could be the eventual replacement for AJ. That would be huge if true. If he could become #2 in deed not just name that would be fantastic in itself. That would allow coaches time to work with Posier. i would love to erase WR as my #1 need in 2013 draft.

Me too on the bolded. Hopefully Posey just needs to 'knock the rust off'. Think he'll be able to do that in camp and PS?

Still the consensus is it takes receivers a couple of years to acclimate to the speed of the game in the NFL plus learning the route tree well enough to execute without thinking which would slow anyone down.

That said, it didn't seem like K-Mart was having that problem.

COME ON JULY 27TH!!!

infantrycak
06-21-2012, 07:13 PM
It has been suggested Jean could be the eventual replacement for AJ.

By whom? - where and when?

Corrosion
06-21-2012, 10:57 PM
By whom? - where and when?

Crazy people.


There is no replacing a HOFer. You just enjoy watching them until they are gone. When its over ....

badboy
06-21-2012, 11:37 PM
By whom? - where and when? Come on Icak. I expect better from you. You are just disagreeing with everything I say. Sure it's boring but can you not find another game to play? I am not saying Jean can replace the skills of AJ or even his stats but he or someone will replace AJ someday as the WR1 and you know that. There have been posts here on this MB that Jean has the size , speed and skills to be a WR 1 in the future and replace AJ. That has been on radio programs also. If you have not heard it that's not my fault.

badboy
06-21-2012, 11:45 PM
Crazy people.


There is no replacing a HOFer. You just enjoy watching them until they are gone. When its over ....Hall of famers are replaced when they cannot cut it anymore. Their position is filled by another player. The replacement may or may not have same skills but all players are eventually replaced on the field although maybe not in a fan's heart. Also, it is just possible that by the time AJ's career is over another player might step up and be as good or wow even better.

infantrycak
06-22-2012, 12:21 AM
Come on Icak. I expect better from you. You are just disagreeing with everything I say. Sure it's boring but can you not find another game to play?

I do so love when people throw down the martyr card.

But pardon me for asking for clarification if you were speaking of coaches, players, pundits or couch potatoes.

As for what you hear on radio from callers that is about as selective as saying somewhere in Houston there is a person who believes the world actually did end when the new millennium hit and we are now all living in the matrix. From the radio I can say "some say..." freaking anything. You are more discerning than that. Don't get bent over one comment about draft derangement.

ObsiWan
06-22-2012, 04:19 AM
It has been suggested Jean could be the eventual replacement for AJ. That would be huge if true. If he could become #2 in deed not just name that would be fantastic in itself. That would allow coaches time to work with Posier. i would love to erase WR as my #1 need in 2013 draft.

By whom? - where and when?

Better question: Why NOT Jean?
A.J. will retire one day. Probably within the next 3-4 years. If Jean is still here, why not him?

I'm not a Jean advocate or anything. But when A.J. retires they won't stop having 2 WRs in our offensive formations. Someone will have to occupy that position. Why not Jean? He has a year on the gaggle of young WRs we have now. And if I'm reading the spy reports from TC correctly, Jean has the early lead for the #3 WR spot, is making good grabs, has a strong work ethic, seems to be the type to keep his mouth shut, head down, and do his job. ....why not Jean?

infantrycak
06-22-2012, 04:48 AM
Better question: Why NOT Jean?

Nope. I asked exactly what I wanted. badboy made an affirmative assertion "it has been suggested" and I wanted clarification on that assertion.

A.J. will retire one day. Probably within the next 3-4 years. If Jean is still here, why not him?

Why not? Have you seen me argue against him? But at this point there is absolutely zilch to think he is going to replace AJ's slot much less skill level. I certainly hope every player excels at their position for the Texans.

Grams
06-22-2012, 06:05 AM
Im not sold on those numbers. The cap is rumored to rise significantly over the next few years with the new TV deal.



Read an article (http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/37621/a-look-ahead-at-2013-cap-situations) last night stating the Texans would have roughly $24.8m in cap space for next season while the Dolts would have a league high $43m.

Here's a link by John Clayton (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8016480/nfl-salary-cap-carryover-rewards-smart-management) discussing the cap space of each team. Clayton does state that the cap may not rise by much over the next three seasons.

We probably have 24.8 mill in cap room for next season, because there are a bunch of guys who's contacts expire after the 2012 season. Schaub, Brown, Barwin, etc are probably not included in the 2013 figures.

Lucky
06-22-2012, 06:20 AM
Better question: Why NOT Jean?
A.J. will retire one day. Probably within the next 3-4 years. If Jean is still here, why not him?
That's a huge "if", don't you think for a UDFA WR who has never caught a NFL pass? Has Lestar Jean become the 2012 Chris Taylor? At least Taylor had a 99 yard effort before he went viral on TexansTalk.

Schaub, Brown, Barwin, etc are probably not included in the 2013 figures.
That's correct. But if Schaub is re-signed, his 2013 cap number is certain to be below the $11 million+ figure he carries in 2012.


As for what you hear on radio from callers that is about as selective as saying somewhere in Houston there is a person who believes the world actually did end when the new millennium hit and we are now all living in the matrix.
Take the blue pill.

http://www.triathlontrainingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/pill.jpg

welsh texan
06-22-2012, 07:55 AM
Corrosion, I keep getting both sides also. The increases ares upposedly minimal however, the new TV deal is bringing in bunches for each team. If the cap is based upon total revenues and said revenue (include radio) goes up like $2 billion over the contract, why is cap only nufged upwards? Lots of confusion and probably misinformation.

The only conclusion I can come to is that the lawyers representing the owners were better than those representing the players. Because the players voted on a deal that would up their income to a higher percentage of the revenue, the revenue has, or will, rise dramatically, and the players aren't going to see it till half of them are out of the league.

Now, the interesting thing is, have we taken enough pain in our moves this offseason to give us a competitive advantage over the next few years, or are we battling to stay under the cap just as much going forward? It'll make or break the coaching regime I think.

infantrycak
06-22-2012, 09:55 AM
The only conclusion I can come to is that the lawyers representing the owners were better than those representing the players. Because the players voted on a deal that would up their income to a higher percentage of the revenue, the revenue has, or will, rise dramatically, and the players aren't going to see it till half of them are out of the league.

For clarity, the players agreed to a deal with a lower percentage but with a definition of the revenue which iis broader for the calculation.

badboy
06-22-2012, 12:39 PM
I do so love when people throw down the martyr card.

But pardon me for asking for clarification if you were speaking of coaches, players, pundits or couch potatoes.

As for what you hear on radio from callers that is about as selective as saying somewhere in Houston there is a person who believes the world actually did end when the new millennium hit and we are now all living in the matrix. From the radio I can say "some say..." freaking anything. You are more discerning than that. Don't get bent over one comment about draft derangement.
Be more selective with your questions. I always respond to criticisms, questions etc. "Who, what, when" comes across belligerent rather than asking for sources. I think I am pretty good at providing links when possible. Tthis is a sport forum of fans with opinions, I consider the radio call in programs the same and those callers have an opinion like we do. I believe you have voiced in the past that so called "experts" from ESPN, CBS, etc are little more knowledgeable than you or I.

Just so you will know, I considered the "draft derangement" comment hilarious. Did not bother me in the slightest and neither have most of your other comments towards me. Nor was I offended by I think it was Hou-Tex a couple posts later; but you seem to have gone on the attack as if just waiting to unleash the dogs.

badboy
06-22-2012, 12:43 PM
Better question: Why NOT Jean?
A.J. will retire one day. Probably within the next 3-4 years. If Jean is still here, why not him?

I'm not a Jean advocate or anything. But when A.J. retires they won't stop having 2 WRs in our offensive formations. Someone will have to occupy that position. Why not Jean? He has a year on the gaggle of young WRs we have now. And if I'm reading the spy reports from TC correctly, Jean has the early lead for the #3 WR spot, is making good grabs, has a strong work ethic, seems to be the type to keep his mouth shut, head down, and do his job. ....why not Jean?Exactly why I posted. My understanding is Jean has the physicals to be a future WR1. I believe it was in the Chronicle that I read he has been playing Andre's role at OTAs and looking good. I am pretty sure that was also discussed on this MB.

badboy
06-22-2012, 12:48 PM
That's a huge "if", don't you think for a UDFA WR who has never caught a NFL pass? Has Lestar Jean become the 2012 Chris Taylor? At least Taylor had a 99 yard effort before he went viral on TexansTalk.


That's correct. But if Schaub is re-signed, his 2013 cap number is certain to be below the $11 million+ figure he carries in 2012.


Take the blue pill.

http://www.triathlontrainingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/pill.jpgAt this time of year, Texans and Rockets fans are doing the "what if" roster game. Considering Jean, the fact that Kubes did not draft a WR in first or second is an indicator he has high hopes for what is already on his roster. It wasn't that long ago that posters were "what if undrafted Adrian Foster could play?"

badboy
06-22-2012, 12:57 PM
The only conclusion I can come to is that the lawyers representing the owners were better than those representing the players. Because the players voted on a deal that would up their income to a higher percentage of the revenue, the revenue has, or will, rise dramatically, and the players aren't going to see it till half of them are out of the league.

Now, the interesting thing is, have we taken enough pain in our moves this offseason to give us a competitive advantage over the next few years, or are we battling to stay under the cap just as much going forward? It'll make or break the coaching regime I think.Ok but does not clarify where the new money is going. The percentage for players is less but from a larger pie so it seems that they would get at least as much as under old CBA to split. Now if the new CBA says NFL can take some of the new money from TV/radio and not add it to later years of cap, that is an answer. All the examples I see have only slight increases annually for life of contract and that dooes not compute.

Ole Miss Texan
06-22-2012, 02:39 PM
Ok but does not clarify where the new money is going. The percentage for players is less but from a larger pie so it seems that they would get at least as much as under old CBA to split. Now if the new CBA says NFL can take some of the new money from TV/radio and not add it to later years of cap, that is an answer. All the examples I see have only slight increases annually for life of contract and that dooes not compute.

It's just really really confusing. The best I can understand is, yes, the new TV deal is huge and a great thing for the NFL. However, the revenue that that the NFL gets from it will increase gradually over the 9 year agreement. Most people are siting the average annual increase in revenue but that's far from painting an accurate picture on the salary cap over the next few years.

Annual revenue doesn't all of a sudden jump from $1.9 billion per year to the $3 billion level that is being discussed. Revenue from CBS, NBC and Fox to the NFL will likely increase incrementally, with more significant payments towards the end of the contract (just like a players' salary). Aside from the actual revenue from the TV deal, the NFL/Teams will likely have to pay taxes, fees, among an assortment of other hidden costs like a 1.5% stadium and player retirement benefits. That would likely be discussed in the new CBA.

So the first few years of the TV deal will likely be fairly similar to what the revenue is now. There may be a small increase in the % allocated to the players but that % would be AFTER taxes, fees, benefits, credits, etc.

ObsiWan
06-22-2012, 03:50 PM
Nope. I asked exactly what I wanted. badboy made an affirmative assertion "it has been suggested" and I wanted clarification on that assertion.

Why not? Have you seen me argue against him? But at this point there is absolutely zilch to think he is going to replace AJ's slot much less skill level. I certainly hope every player excels at their position for the Texans.

There's where the assumption - whether you meant it to be there or not - comes thru in your question. That whoever takes the #1 WR position will be or should be of A.J. quality.

I submit that somebody will get that job when A.J. decides he's ready to retire. So why not Jean?

However, having said that, I further submit that no one will ever "take A.J.'s place". Because I seriously doubt we will see his like - in temperment, talent, physicality, and work ethic (at WR) all in one package - ever again wearing a Texans uniform. At least not in my lifetime.

Now if this discussion is about usurping A.J.'s position - i.e., someone, anyone, coming in and beating out A.J. for his job while he still has the health and the mindset to play, then I agree; that ain't gonna happen.
And I'm sorry for interrupting.

ArlingtonTexan
06-22-2012, 04:06 PM
I am going to post this here but there are a couple of other threads that it could apply to on the first page. Between his contract and normal aging the Texans have three to four years of andre johnson being the CLEAR #1 Wr on the roster. He is not in the short term (minus injury) needing a replacement.

Now, specially on LeStar jean. he is a great story and has gotten rave reviews from spring practice of whatever name. Good. Still, he has a better chance to never have a single season a good as the best season that Jacoby than be any sort of true NFL #1 WR. and honestly, the texans really only need him to turn into a 45-50 catch guy, which would make him an outstanding UDFA. Yes, arian foster happens, but remember the Texans did not bet on Arian being Arian during that off-season, just like they have not bet on Lestar being anyting this off-season.

Placing these together, the Texans are probably years from seing another Andre Johnson acquired in any manner. Given that there are only a handful of UDFA WRs who are starters in the NFL, much less true 1s, my bet is that Jean is Just Another Guy overall. That said, I hope that I am really wrong.

The Pencil Neck
06-22-2012, 05:23 PM
I am going to post this here but there are a couple of other threads that it could apply to on the first page. Between his contract and normal aging the Texans have three to four years of andre johnson being the CLEAR #1 Wr on the roster. He is not in the short term (minus injury) needing a replacement.

Now, specially on LeStar jean. he is a great story and has gotten rave reviews from spring practice of whatever name. Good. Still, he has a better chance to never have a single season a good as the best season that Jacoby than be any sort of true NFL #1 WR. and honestly, the texans really only need him to turn into a 45-50 catch guy, which would make him an outstanding UDFA. Yes, arian foster happens, but remember the Texans did not bet on Arian being Arian during that off-season, just like they have not bet on Lestar being anyting this off-season.

Placing these together, the Texans are probably years from seing another Andre Johnson acquired in any manner. Given that there are only a handful of UDFA WRs who are starters in the NFL, much less true 1s, my bet is that Jean is Just Another Guy overall. That said, I hope that I am really wrong.

If Jean turns into a 45-50 catch guy that would be insanely amazing. He'd be head and shoulders better than Jacoby Jones ever was (who only broke 50 catches once in his time here). And that's good enough for me.

WRs who work hard frequently have long careers and I think Andre fits into that category. He's not going to be #1 for the entire span but he'll degrade into an outstanding #2. At that point, we'll need to have a new #1 standing by.

I don't think that new #1 is on the team. I could be wrong. Jean or Posey could develop into that. But I'm not really worried about it, yet.

welsh texan
06-23-2012, 07:13 AM
I am going to post this here but there are a couple of other threads that it could apply to on the first page. Between his contract and normal aging the Texans have three to four years of andre johnson being the CLEAR #1 Wr on the roster. He is not in the short term (minus injury) needing a replacement.

Now, specially on LeStar jean. he is a great story and has gotten rave reviews from spring practice of whatever name. Good. Still, he has a better chance to never have a single season a good as the best season that Jacoby than be any sort of true NFL #1 WR. and honestly, the texans really only need him to turn into a 45-50 catch guy, which would make him an outstanding UDFA. Yes, arian foster happens, but remember the Texans did not bet on Arian being Arian during that off-season, just like they have not bet on Lestar being anyting this off-season.

Placing these together, the Texans are probably years from seing another Andre Johnson acquired in any manner. Given that there are only a handful of UDFA WRs who are starters in the NFL, much less true 1s, my bet is that Jean is Just Another Guy overall. That said, I hope that I am really wrong.

Does Kubes' offense really need and Andre Johnson to make it work though? Ok, so we've seen AJ go down and our passing game drop off a few times now, not just last season, but it seems as if Kubiak is capable of using WR's to clear space for each other, and if the playbook was based around 2 KW's instead of AJ + KW, maybe we could still be serviceable?

What was his record like in Denver did he always have at least one great receiver or did he get by with lesser talent at times? I ask because I've never seen him go after a great WR either a prospect or FA, the presence of AJ might be what has stopped that, but maybe, just maybe, AJ is a bonus rather than a necessity in our system? I believe AJ is now the only non-Smithiak era signing unless you count Norris.

KW needs to be made expendable by one of the younger guys this season, I felt for the last couple of years that they needed Jacoby to do that for them but he failed. Until that happens, we'll continue to use him for what he's good at, he isn't going to be a cap casualty until someone else steps up.

Antonio, I've said all along, as good as he is, we can get by paying a lot less at that position, maybe not be quite as good, but it will keep us good in other areas, Crick/next years signing will be the replacement.

The Pencil Neck
06-23-2012, 12:09 PM
What was his record like in Denver did he always have at least one great receiver or did he get by with lesser talent at times? I ask because I've never seen him go after a great WR either a prospect or FA, the presence of AJ might be what has stopped that, but maybe, just maybe, AJ is a bonus rather than a necessity in our system? I believe AJ is now the only non-Smithiak era signing unless you count Norris.

The mainstay WR in Kubiak's offense in Denver was Rod Smith, the Great. An undrafted free agent signed the year before Kubiak took over. It took Smith 3 years to "get it". He didn't play at all -- I don't know if he made the practice squad or not -- his first year. In his first season under Kubiak, he only caught 6 passes but for 152 yards. From his third season to his next to last season, he had at least 70 catches each year and he had two years with catches over 100 which was very rare back in that time. He retired after the 2006 season (when Kubiak had come here.) He's the greatest receiver in Denver's history and should be in the running for the Hall of Fame.

The other guy for a good chunk of Kubiak's tenure in Denver was Ed McCaffrey. McCaffrey was a 3rd round draft pick by the Giants who played for them for 3 years. Then he spent a year in San Francisco with Shanahan and Kubiak and went to Denver with them. He was like KW on steroids.

The biggest draft choice at the WR spot Kubes had was Ashley Lelie. Lelie was drafted to take over for Rod Smith but ended up taking over for McCaffrey. He had 1 1000 yard season under Kubiak. He left Denver as a big name free agent when Kubiak left and fell all to pieces.

So. No. Kubes doesn't have a good history of drafting receivers. He has taken some cast-offs and built them into great players, though. And he's had some great success with TEs (Sharpe.) One of those seasons in Denver, he had Smith at 1000 yards and McCaffrey at 900 and Sharpe at almost 700... and that was with Griese throwing the ball.

badboy
06-24-2012, 09:31 PM
Part of what we will have to live with in finding another AJ is where we are now drafting. Also, I think it is possible we could lose Barwin and go OLB again. Having said that, as mentioned above, in Wade and Gary's playbook you don't have to have a HOF to succeed.

GP
06-24-2012, 10:46 PM
The mainstay WR in Kubiak's offense in Denver was Rod Smith, the Great. An undrafted free agent signed the year before Kubiak took over. It took Smith 3 years to "get it". He didn't play at all -- I don't know if he made the practice squad or not -- his first year. In his first season under Kubiak, he only caught 6 passes but for 152 yards. From his third season to his next to last season, he had at least 70 catches each year and he had two years with catches over 100 which was very rare back in that time. He retired after the 2006 season (when Kubiak had come here.) He's the greatest receiver in Denver's history and should be in the running for the Hall of Fame.

Not saying he's gonna be Hall of Fame caliber, but LeStar Jean might be that Rod Smith type WR here...the guy who took a couple years to build up steam.

I'm hoping so, at least! I'm just glad that Jacoby is gone because it'll give us a chance to see more at WR than just AJ, KW, and JJ. I'm ready to see some fresh faces out there.

Corrosion
06-25-2012, 02:03 AM
Not saying he's gonna be Hall of Fame caliber, but LeStar Jean might be that Rod Smith type WR here...the guy who took a couple years to build up steam.

I'm hoping so, at least! I'm just glad that Jacoby is gone because it'll give us a chance to see more at WR than just AJ, KW, and JJ. I'm ready to see some fresh faces out there.

Im glad to see JJ gone cause I almost had a heart attack every damn time he touched the ball .... not to mention getting to see some fresh faces at WR.


Im surprised Gary didnt turn around and look the opposite direction every time a play was designed to go to him .....