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View Full Version : Will the Defense take a step back in 2012?


Tailgate
05-16-2012, 10:08 AM
Bored at work and I was doing some digging for fun. Our D had the luxury of facing the Jags, Colts, and Titans offenses 2 xs each last year. They had the #21st, 28th, and 28th ranked scoring teams in NFL last year according to NFL.com.

The good news is we get to face those same offenses next year, but they are working to improve just like everyone else. When looking back we faced an average of the 19th ranked scoring teams over 16 games last year.

The best offenses we faced in 2011 (weighted in ppg):
#2 New Orleans - 34.2 ppg / 467 ypg - We allowed 40 pts / 454 yards
#5 Carolina - 25.4 ppg / 389 ypg - We allowed 28 /316 yards
#7 Atlanta - 25.1 ppg / 376 ypg - We allowed 10 pts / 337 yards
#12 Baltimore - 23.6 ppg / 338 ypg - We allowed 29 & 20 / 402 and 227 yds
#16 Oakland - 22.4 ppg / 380 ypg - We allowed 25 / 278 yards

The most balanced offenses we faced were Balt, Oak, and Carolina. *All 3 were losses in the regular season.

Analysis: We did a very fine job of limiting NO until Brees became unstoppable. Carolina, was it just one of those days? Atlanta, one of our best defensive games.... but how much of a threat was Atl anyway? Baltimore, much better the second time around and proved we can take a punch, keep standing, and hit em right back; was our truly earned respect game imo. Oakland was a FG fest by them and a fluke win if you ask me.

2012:
I know its not ideal to compare 2011 scoring stats and forecast the next season. We are scheduled to face the 17th ranked scoring teams in the NFL over 16 games next year. But when looking at the top 5 offenses we will face, its a safe assumption these guys will certainly be gunning again and appears to be a much more potent lineup for us overall.

#1 Green Bay - # 3 passing attack
#3 New England - # 2 passing attack
#4 Detroit - # 4 passing attack
#12 Baltimore - # 19 passing attack
#13 NY Jets - # 21 passing attack

Other notables:
Denver - Top rushing attack from last year, added Manning
Minnesota - Adrian Peterson/ # 4 rushing attack. Nuff Said
Chicago - Top 10 rushing attack.
Tenn - CJ? Locker? Britt? How improved will they be?
Indy - Get them 2 of last 3 games with Luck having almost full season at this point.

Side note: We really dont face a true balanced offense such as our selves all year according to last years stats. Either a top passing or a top rushing offense. Hard to find a true balanced offense in the lineup.


That is 3 top 5 passing attacks, and 3 top 10 rushing attacks we will face in 2012. Note: We also faced 3 top 10 rushing attacks last year.

SO! How much of a drop off can we expect in our ranking if any? Was the leap to a top defense in the NFL greatly helped by the overall schedule we played? Will we be able to stay in the top 10 this year? Going to be a very very interesting season for us, on this side of the ball alone.

ckhouston
05-16-2012, 10:12 AM
With a full camp and a year in Wade's system under their belts, the defense will only improve.

Look for a #1 ranked defense this year.:d:

Playoffs
05-16-2012, 10:20 AM
Yes, I think we regress some. Offenses will adjust, too. Should still be top third.

Rep for your work.

ATXtexanfan
05-16-2012, 10:28 AM
i think we can stay in top ten. that would be fine considering the schedule

b0ng
05-16-2012, 10:43 AM
It would be silly to think that there is no chance whatsoever of regression.

2slik4u
05-16-2012, 11:09 AM
Bored at work and I was doing some digging for fun. Our D had the luxury of facing the Jags, Colts, and Titans offenses 2 xs each last year. They had the #21st, 28th, and 28th ranked scoring teams in NFL last year according to NFL.com.

The good news is we get to face those same offenses next year, but they are working to improve just like everyone else. When looking back we faced an average of the 19th ranked scoring teams over 16 games last year.

The best offenses we faced in 2011 (weighted in ppg):
#2 New Orleans - 34.2 ppg / 467 ypg - We allowed 40 pts / 454 yards
#5 Carolina - 25.4 ppg / 389 ypg - We allowed 28 /316 yards
#7 Atlanta - 25.1 ppg / 376 ypg - We allowed 10 pts / 337 yards
#12 Baltimore - 23.6 ppg / 338 ypg - We allowed 29 & 20 / 402 and 227 yds
#16 Oakland - 22.4 ppg / 380 ypg - We allowed 25 / 278 yards

The most balanced offenses we faced were Balt, Oak, and Carolina. *All 3 were losses in the regular season.

Analysis: We did a very fine job of limiting NO until Brees became unstoppable. Carolina, was it just one of those days? Atlanta, one of our best defensive games.... but how much of a threat was Atl anyway? Baltimore, much better the second time around and proved we can take a punch, keep standing, and hit em right back; was our truly earned respect game imo. Oakland was a FG fest by them and a fluke win if you ask me.

2012:
I know its not ideal to compare 2011 scoring stats and forecast the next season. We are scheduled to face the 17th ranked scoring teams in the NFL over 16 games next year. But when looking at the top 5 offenses we will face, its a safe assumption these guys will certainly be gunning again and appears to be a much more potent lineup for us overall.

#1 Green Bay - # 3 passing attack
#3 New England - # 2 passing attack
#4 Detroit - # 4 passing attack
#12 Baltimore - # 19 passing attack
#13 NY Jets - # 21 passing attack

Other notables:
Denver - Top rushing attack from last year, added Manning
Minnesota - Adrian Peterson/ # 4 rushing attack. Nuff Said
Chicago - Top 10 rushing attack.
Tenn - CJ? Locker? Britt? How improved will they be?
Indy - Get them 2 of last 3 games with Luck having almost full season at this point.

Side note: We really dont face a true balanced offense such as our selves all year according to last years stats. Either a top passing or a top rushing offense. Hard to find a true balanced offense in the lineup.


That is 3 top 5 passing attacks, and 3 top 10 rushing attacks we will face in 2012. Note: We also faced 3 top 10 rushing attacks last year.

SO! How much of a drop off can we expect in our ranking if any? Was the leap to a top defense in the NFL greatly helped by the overall schedule we played? Will we be able to stay in the top 10 this year? Going to be a very very interesting season for us, on this side of the ball alone.

One thing that should remain in the back of your head is the noted drop off in production in Wade's defense in year two as well. Im not saying thats going to happen to us but statisically, it happens EVERY 2nd year for Wade when it comes to his defensive production drop off.

Why it drops off is anyones guess??? Could it be he tries to repeat the same exact gameplans and is to predictable? Is it because he loses tools on the defense? Could it be because offensive coordinators have a seasons worth of tape (of Wade with current team) to acclimate their gameplan to him?

Or could it be purely a coincedence?

Not sure but I would be lying if I said I wasnt watching out for it this season.

I think the tools are there for him and if he is going to break that trend, it will be this year.

Brandon420tx
05-16-2012, 11:19 AM
Doesn't Wade usually have a bad track record the season after taking over a new defense and taking it to the top?

The Pencil Neck
05-16-2012, 11:35 AM
Doesn't Wade usually have a bad track record the season after taking over a new defense and taking it to the top?

Not really. That's kind of a myth that's been circulating. It has happened a couple of times but if you look at those cases, there were lots of injuries to players who'd been important to the defense the previous year. IIRC, one year his defense finished at a lower ranking but statistically was better: gave up fewer yards/points or something.

He's had several instances where the defense was as good or better the second year in the system.

Rey
05-16-2012, 11:53 AM
I think well be better actually. I think if someone beats out keo the safety depth will be better. I expect Harris to develop. I think the d line will be talented and deeper. I think reed will be better and i think barwin is going to have a better year.

I look for us being just as good as the low mark. I look for that unit to be improved.

Thorn
05-16-2012, 12:02 PM
It would be silly to think that there is no chance whatsoever of regression.

Correct. At the same time, I still fully expect the defense to kick ass. Maybe not end up being the statistical 2nd defense in the league again, but there is no way on this planet our defense ends up being as historically bad as it used to be pre-Wade.

House of Pain
05-16-2012, 12:11 PM
I pretty much believe they will be in the top 10. They do take on some more explosive offensive teams, but I still think barring major injuries, they will hold it together.

Fortunately, we don't have to have the second coming of the 2000 Ravens defense to win the majority of our games.

Miggsy
05-16-2012, 12:11 PM
Pretty sure we'll be better but it won't show up in the statistics/rankings. I'll be surprised if we end up in the top 5 of defenses with this schedule.

Good work OP

False Start
05-16-2012, 12:17 PM
With OTA's, and a full training camp, I think they may get better. If they do regress, I dont think it will be a dramatic drop off though. This team has too many good players on D to just completely collapse.

badboy
05-16-2012, 12:37 PM
I think well be better actually. I think if someone beats out keo the safety depth will be better. I expect Harris to develop. I think the d line will be talented and deeper. I think reed will be better and i think barwin is going to have a better year.

I look for us being just as good as the low mark. I look for that unit to be improved.I agree. Our defense can be better and still not ranked as high. I will be focusing more on W/Ls rather than stats this season and as always player performance. The offense will definitely play a role in defense's productivity imo. A healthy Matt, better play from OGs and hopefully a WR2 should give D more time on sidelines. I am very interested in how Casey will perform as TE. I'd like to see him take a role at something and excell at it.

Line_Producer
05-16-2012, 12:38 PM
Something to consider, though I haven't backed this up: Wade takes a middling team with a middling schedule to the playoffs. After the playoffs, the team plays significantly better teams in the second year. Every time.

Just something to think about.

Goldensilence
05-16-2012, 12:40 PM
Honestly, I am not worried about the defense. I doubt they drop out of a top 10 ranking at worst. They added some nice pieces in the draft and definitely got better in depth.

What does concern me is the other side of the ball. There's really only two spots that have no questions going into the season: our two headed RB monster and D. Brown at LT.

what could put this defense in trouble is if the offense struggles and puts them in bad spots.

powda
05-16-2012, 12:51 PM
Couple of factors come to mind:

A. We'll face better offenses

B. Our running game wont be as domminant as in years past. The defense will be on the field longer and that means a statistical impact even if the offense and the defense are actually better.

We will not be a top 5 defense next year.

Tailgate
05-16-2012, 01:12 PM
Couple of factors come to mind:

A. We'll face better offenses

B. Our running game wont be as domminant as in years past. The defense will be on the field longer and that means a statistical impact even if the offense and the defense are actually better.

We will not be a top 5 defense next year.

Thats a good thread debate in itself... Replacing right side of O-line vs having a healthy Schaub (plenty of threads on him), Foster, and AJ on the field at the same time for more than like a half a game next year. Which is more important and will the O see the field less as a result?

BigBull17
05-16-2012, 01:20 PM
It would be silly to think that there is no chance whatsoever of regression.

And regression doesn't necessarly mean the D will be bad. They could "regress" to 7th or so.

Nawzer
05-16-2012, 01:37 PM
Anything is possible and nothing is guaranteed.

False Start
05-16-2012, 01:40 PM
And regression doesn't necessarly mean the D will be bad. They could "regress" to 7th or so.

Good point. I'll take a 7th ranked defense any day.

powda
05-16-2012, 01:44 PM
Thats a good thread debate in itself... Replacing right side of O-line vs having a healthy Schaub (plenty of threads on him), Foster, and AJ on the field at the same time for more than like a half a game next year. Which is more important and will the O see the field less as a result?

The passing game can be more efficient (with a healthy schaub) and still not use as much clock. I have reservations about the new side of the line until i see them in action. Assuming we will have the same running game is a tall order. Ultimately it has an impact on the defense.

The Medic01
05-16-2012, 07:15 PM
The passing game can be more efficient (with a healthy schaub) and still not use as much clock. I have reservations about the new side of the line until i see them in action. Assuming we will have the same running game is a tall order. Ultimately it has an impact on the defense.

I don't get the skepticism about O-line. Caldwell had two high ankle sprains Foster had a good game nearly every time he started and he started 2010. Butler did well at LT which is much harder than RT. Not worried.

SAMURAITEXAN
05-16-2012, 07:26 PM
In Wade We Trust enough said.

Go Texans!!!

Texan_Bill
05-16-2012, 08:37 PM
I hear that there is empirical data that Wade's defenses do regress in his second year as coordinator (and I have no site to cite that), but irrespective of that, I remember comments from two people, one may have been Wade himself and the other JJ where they said that because of the lock-out and no OTA's that Wade only installed about 75% of his defense.

If this is the case, than the defense won't regress at all.

That said, if the 75% thingy is true, this defense could be even better.

*************

Point Counter Point.... "Jane, you ignorant slut" (That was for old timers)

*************

Will JJ "Mega"Watt and Brooks Reed be nearly as affective as they were last year now that teams have "film" and "tendancies", etc......

Will Mercilus throw a monkey wrench into those teams scouting of the Texans "D"????



I love this ****e!!!! :texanbill:

powda
05-16-2012, 08:45 PM
I don't get the skepticism about O-line. Caldwell had two high ankle sprains Foster had a good game nearly every time he started and he started 2010. Butler did well at LT which is much harder than RT. Not worried.

I want you to be right but im a glass half empty person. I'll believe it if I see it.

The Pencil Neck
05-16-2012, 10:40 PM
I hear that there is empirical data that Wade's defenses do regress in his second year as coordinator (and I have no site to cite that)...

The Battle Red Blog's counter argument to that statement. (http://www.battleredblog.com/2012/4/2/2913942/past-as-prologue-wade-phillips-year-two)

Yaky
05-16-2012, 10:47 PM
Butler did well at LT which is much harder than RT. Not worried.

PFF disagrees.
So, with Winston gone and, by all accounts, a contract re-working not in the cards, what does that mean for a Texans line already fighting to keep hold of its starting center and right guard? Do they think that Derek Newton (13 career snaps at tackle and seven at tight end) or Rashad Butler (who is coming off injured reserve and was terrible filling in at left tackle in 2010 with a -11.4 grade) could step in?
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/03/13/eric-winston-hits-the-market/

I am worried.

badboy
05-16-2012, 10:47 PM
Anything is possible and nothing is guaranteed.Wow what great cliches that say absolutely nothing. I am very impressed. Why don't you write down some of the many others and then post them? You know like on an given Sunday or water is wet but blood is thicker.

badboy
05-16-2012, 10:52 PM
I want you to be right but im a glass half empty person. I'll believe it if I see it.The point is if you are thirsty you don't walk by the half empty glass of water; you drink it.

steelbtexan
05-16-2012, 11:02 PM
With a full camp and a year in Wade's system under their belts, the defense will only improve.

Look for a #1 ranked defense this year.:d:

Of course they are going to regress. They have to face Brady, Rodgers ,Stafford, Cutler, Manning etc...

They are probably looking forward to the toast that is KJ. The defense can be better next yr and have worse stats.

TexanSam
05-16-2012, 11:04 PM
I say yes but that doesn't mean we aren't going to be good on that side of the ball. I don't think we'll be the #2 overall D at the end of the year though. Doubt we fall out of the top 10.

Perki-Perk
05-17-2012, 04:50 PM
Of course they are going to regress. They have to face Brady, Rodgers ,Stafford, Cutler, Manning etc...

They are probably looking forward to the toast that is KJ. The defense can be better next yr and have worse stats.

Dude, the constant slams on KJ are getting old. Certainly, there's someone else in your poor miserable life you can pick on to make yourself feel better about the quality, or lack thereof, that you put forth at your job.

KJ clearly improved last year, and I don't see any reason he won't get even better this year, not all world shut down or ball hawking, but a very servicable CB.

The way some of you jump on the hate band wagon around here is ridiculous. You hear someone say something, and you run with it. Like with Rackers, for example, without even looking at stats, a couple people on here had everyone who's too lazy to look it up believing that Rackers was horrible, when that's not true. There's google and youtube....No one has any excuse to make stupid comments....just none.

Watch some game tape on KJ towards the end of last year and watch some tape on him from 2010. I'm telling you, the D will be solid this year, in fact, I believe they just got stronger!

b0ng
05-17-2012, 06:58 PM
I do worry about JoJo's brittleness when he was in Cincy. Other than that it will probably be only a small step back.

Texecutioner
05-17-2012, 07:54 PM
With a full camp and a year in Wade's system under their belts, the defense will only improve.

Look for a #1 ranked defense this year.:d:

Pretty much my thoughts. I don't see how this defense gets worse. Way to many guys on the pass rush for that to happen.

CretorFrigg
05-17-2012, 10:01 PM
I do worry about JoJo's brittleness when he was in Cincy. Other than that it will probably be only a small step back.

If JoJo goes down, we're screwed.

ckhouston
05-18-2012, 10:35 AM
They have to face Brady, Rodgers ,Stafford, Cutler, Manning etc...

How far can those guys throw it off their backs?

The Pencil Neck
05-18-2012, 11:05 AM
How far can those guys throw it off their backs?

Probably further than you'd think.

But their accuracy suffers.

:kitten:

ObsiWan
05-21-2012, 04:51 PM
Probably further than you'd think.

But their accuracy suffers.

:kitten:

Seems like it would be hard to get any distance with the Earth impeding your ability to **** your arm to throw...
:bender:

steelbtexan
05-21-2012, 05:07 PM
Dude, the constant slams on KJ are getting old. Certainly, there's someone else in your poor miserable life you can pick on to make yourself feel better about the quality, or lack thereof, that you put forth at your job.

KJ clearly improved last year, and I don't see any reason he won't get even better this year, not all world shut down or ball hawking, but a very servicable CB.

The way some of you jump on the hate band wagon around here is ridiculous. You hear someone say something, and you run with it. Like with Rackers, for example, without even looking at stats, a couple people on here had everyone who's too lazy to look it up believing that Rackers was horrible, when that's not true. There's google and youtube....No one has any excuse to make stupid comments....just none.

Watch some game tape on KJ towards the end of last year and watch some tape on him from 2010. I'm telling you, the D will be solid this year, in fact, I believe they just got stronger!

Attack the post not the poster, KJ's better but still not good enough vs the quality of QB's the Texans will be facing this yr. If KJ was as good as you say Allen wouldn't have gotten meaningful PT at KJ's spot.

BTW, I've never posted anything bad about Rackers, or were you to lazy to look it up?

See this is an example of how to attack the post but not the poster. No need to get personel. Life happens to be quite good right now, sorry to disappoint you.

The Pencil Neck
05-21-2012, 06:47 PM
Attack the post not the poster, KJ's better but still not good enough vs the quality of QB's the Texans will be facing this yr. If KJ was as good as you say Allen wouldn't have gotten meaningful PT at KJ's spot.

BTW, I've never posted anything bad about Rackers, or were you to lazy to look it up?

See this is an example of how to attack the post but not the poster. No need to get personel. Life happens to be quite good right now, sorry to disappoint you.

Dude. You totally attacked the poster.

Allstar
05-22-2012, 02:06 PM
Bradie James replaces DeMeco Ryans 'and then some' (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d829431a0/article/bradie-james-replaces-demeco-ryans-and-then-some?campaign=Twitter_atl)

The Houston Texans traded Pro Bowl linebacker DeMeco Ryans to Philadelphia in one of the more surprising deals of the offseason. Why would Houston jettison one of their defensive leaders?

Well, Ryans cost a lot. And the Texans think they have already have someone better than Ryans to replace him.

"I don't mind throwing it on the table, we're pretty pleased with picking Bradie (James) up, because we feel like we gained back what we lost with DeMeco leaving, and then some to be honest with you," Texans linebackers Reggie Herring coach said Tuesday.

Herring may have been a little too honest with that assessment. We saw video of a Texans public relations staffer promptly ending the interview while yanking Herring away after he made that statement.

Earlier in the session, Herring said that James -- the longtime Cowboys player -- knew all the "checks" for the defense better than Ryans and Brian Cushing did last year. Ryans was a class act during his time in Houston and the Texans probably don't want to be seen as gloating after trading him. So they cut the interview short.

"At the end of the day, whatever we lost with DeMeco we feel very confident that we've regained it with Bradie," Herring said.



I wasn't sure where to post this, but this seems good enough.

pec0sb0b
05-22-2012, 05:39 PM
Face it, the Texans schedule is much tougher this year than last regardless of what the strength of schedule says. When you win the division, you play all the division winners the next year. I think the defense will play better as a unit this season, but it may not be reflected in wins or defensive rankings.

Cap considerations aside, I hated to see Williams go. I thought he might be better than Demarcus Ware in the position. That being said this defense will produce sacks in big numbers...that's what a 3-4 does.

As much as some don't want to hear it, Bradie James will be a better fit than Demeco Ryans, and replacing Ryans may have been more important than replacing Williams.

Don't know what to say about the secondary, though...last year's numbers show the benefit of a better pass-rush, but did they get any better? I'm kinda hoping the Cowboys release Mike Jenkins.

thunderkyss
05-22-2012, 06:02 PM
Bored at work...

On the flipside..... we faced an abnormally high number of top 10 defenses last year. Some of that with plan B, then plan C at QB, no Andre, Arian in & out....... & Jacoby Jones as our #1 receiver (for a time)

I often point to the signs showing our defense should take a step back. I've reminded us that the GreenBay Packers had the #2 defense in 2010, facing an offensive schedule like we did in 2011, then fell like a rock to the bottom 2 or 3 (if not the worst) defense in 2011.

That could be us.

But, again looking at the Green Bay Packers, if our offense can play the Lions, Packers, Vikings,Bills, Patriots, & Colts (x2) (all finished 21 or worse on defense) & look like the unstopable 2011 Packers..... our defense may actually look better.

Keep the opponents offense off the field. Rack up points early to take away the running game..... pin the ears back.

It all depends on how you look at it.

thunderkyss
05-22-2012, 06:18 PM
Attack the post not the poster, KJ's better but still not good enough vs the quality of QB's the Texans will be facing this yr. If KJ was as good as you say Allen wouldn't have gotten meaningful PT at KJ's spot.


eh..... I don't know about that. On the one hand, you had a 2nd year guy that had a really rough going his rookie year. On the other hand, you've got a journeyman on the rebound after a bust of a career in Miami.

New DC. New DB coach. No OTAs.

If it were me, I'd take them both into camp & see what I got. Personally if either guy was as bad as some have been claiming here, I would have cut one of them & cleared space for my 2nd round rookie. But since both of them took a healthy amount of snaps & my 2nd rounder rode the bench all year, I'm thinking both J.A. & Kj exceeded expectations.

However, because Kj is younger & signed to a longer contract & because we did draft a guy in the second round, & because Jason Allen is a Free Agent, & because we obviously don't know how to manage the cap..... Allen's gotta go.

& that Kj/JA sharing time (imo) tells the rest of the team that if you do your job in practice, in the gym, in the meeting rooms, you'll get to play. Because most teams don't swap CBs out like we did with those two. But I think that really fed into the next man up thing.

Perki-Perk
06-05-2012, 12:12 PM
Attack the post not the poster, KJ's better but still not good enough vs the quality of QB's the Texans will be facing this yr. If KJ was as good as you say Allen wouldn't have gotten meaningful PT at KJ's spot.

BTW, I've never posted anything bad about Rackers, or were you to lazy to look it up?

See this is an example of how to attack the post but not the poster. No need to get personel. Life happens to be quite good right now, sorry to disappoint you.

You are correct, I should not have gotten personal, just tired of the KJ bashing. He's getting better. Also, I didn't specifically say YOU posted anything bad about Rackers. Again, my appology for the personal assault.