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View Full Version : What to Expect from Keshawn Martin and LaVon Brazill's Rookie Years


srrono
05-07-2012, 12:25 PM
After months of media hype, the NFL draft is over, and fans finally have new members of their team to welcome to town.

Expectations for draft picks are high, but are they too high?

Over the course of the next few weeks, "What to Expect" will examine every draft pick from the AFC South in its historical context. Using past performances from similarly drafted players and by examining the way in which each team develops certain positions, I will create a realistic baseline by which to judge the performance of each pick.

Readers should be aware that rookies historically perform much, much worse than fan expectations.

Also keep in mind that I am not saying the player will perform to these expectations, but rather anything better than the results should be considered a successful rookie year, and anything worse would be a disappointment.

These are not predictions. They are baselines.

Today we move on to the late-round wideouts. The Texans took wideout/kick returner Keshawn Martin in the late fourth round, and Indianapolis added LaVon Brazill in the sixth. Despite nearly 80 picks between them, the profile for both players is similar.

Since 2005, there have been 86 wideouts taken in rounds four through six. Fifteen of them (17%) never played a down in the NFL. The best of the bunch was Mike Williams of Tampa who posted 65 catches for 964 yards and 11 scores his rookie year. He is a huge outlier, however.

Only four players had at least 40 catches. Only 19 had at least 20. The odds of a guy not making the roster at all are close to the odds that he'll have a 20 catch season.

Only 10 receivers had more than two touchdowns.

Of the 86 players taken, 44 had two or fewer catches in their rookie year.

Roughly half of the players taken ran back kicks at some point. Players like Steve Breaston, Johnny Knox and Pierre Garcon were in this category. Many of the returners were very successful, and ten of them ran back kicks for scores in their first year.

Both the Texans and Colts have had recent success with wideouts and returners in the middle rounds. Indianapolis snagged Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon there recently, and if you go way back, Indianapolis legend Bill Brooks was a fourth-round pick. Jerome Mathis made a Pro Bowl for the Texans as a returner after being selected in round four.

Summary

When a team takes a receiver/returner in the middle to late rounds, there is a good chance the player isn't going to make the team. The 'bust factor' is extraordinarily high for players in this range.

That's not to say there aren't some big names on this list. Austin Collie, Brandon Marshall, Mike Thomas, Pierre Garcon and Johnny Knox all came from this range. In all, there have been five Pro Bowlers taken in this range since 2005, mostly kick returners.

If Brazill or Martin become full-time kick returners they have a chance to do very well. As wideouts, if either one of them winds up with a 20 catch, 300 yard, 1 touchdown season, they'll be in the upper quarter of players taken in that range.

A more realistic expectation would be 10 catches, 100 yards, and no scores. Even those modest numbers put them in the top half of mid to late-round wideouts.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1174632-draft-2012-what-to-expect-from-keshawn-martin-and-lavon-brazills-rookie-years

GP
05-07-2012, 12:38 PM
I have little expectation of Martin other than he replaces Jacoby as or punt returner and maybe kickoff returner too, and that he makes sure Trindon Holliday stays off the roster.

Posey is supposed to be a WR3 at the least, and a WR2 at best. He has to be good or it was a busted pick...but also got us Jared Crick so maybe that's the fallback plan if Posey busts.

From what people say about Posey, and from what I read about him in Texans articles...they all think he has the goods. So IMO, he's a bust if he doesn't produce early and often.

badboy
05-07-2012, 12:39 PM
My expectation would be based upon our player in our system/coaches. Comparing to another might be fun & interesting but not very helpful. For example, Demeco Ryans in Philly's system would have much higher expectations than if he had remained in Texans system.

Concerning rookie draft picks it is even harder to evaluate. Texans had a huge need at WR2 but traded out and down to get "their"guy Posey. Fair or not, I will have expectations of him being as good as a 2nd round receiver. If he performs as they expect then he is even a better deal at lower round. See Arian Foster....

76Texan
05-07-2012, 12:55 PM
The production of the players will depend on how the Texans want to run their offense this year.

If they continue to thrive for balance between the running game and the passing game, there will be fewer opportunities for the receivers.

Also, until the opponents can stop Foster and Tate out of the backfield, the RBs will see plenty of passes thrown their way.

The Texans may also spread the ball to OD, Graham, and Casey.

If AJ remains healthy, he will need the ball in his hands to make play.

There are so many factors involved.

What is more realistic, IMO, is to see whether Posey can get open (even when the ball isn't thrown his way), or whether he can keep the defense a little more honest with a few deep routes (again, even if the ball isn't thrown his way).

The Pencil Neck
05-07-2012, 01:00 PM
This kinda fits in with something I saw when I ran numbers for receivers and where they were mocked vs. where they were actually drafted and how successful they were.

In general, the later a guy is selected in the real draft, the worse he performs. There are exceptions but it fits as a general rule. The real draft and the mock drafts have the same players for the most part but the real drafters are better at predicting how productive they're actually going to be.

Because of this year's depth at WR, I think we'll see more productivity into the later rounds with this year's class.

But like most here, I expect more WR production from Posey (and possibly Jones) than Martin. But I expect Martin to be our PR and possibly KR.

badboy
05-07-2012, 01:05 PM
This kinda fits in with something I saw when I ran numbers for receivers and where they were mocked vs. where they were actually drafted and how successful they were.

In general, the later a guy is selected in the real draft, the worse he performs. There are exceptions but it fits as a general rule. The real draft and the mock drafts have the same players for the most part but the real drafters are better at predicting how productive they're actually going to be.

Because of this year's depth at WR, I think we'll see more productivity into the later rounds with this year's class.

But like most here, I expect more WR production from Posey (and possibly Jones) than Martin. But I expect Martin to be our PR and possibly KR.If he can do that well, he is worth his pick; special teams and occasional passes is gravy for de chicken.

welsh texan
05-07-2012, 01:13 PM
My expectation would be based upon our player in our system/coaches. Comparing to another might be fun & interesting but not very helpful. For example, Demeco Ryans in Philly's system would have much higher expectations than if he had remained in Texans system.

Concerning rookie draft picks it is even harder to evaluate. Texans had a huge need at WR2 but traded out and down to get "their"guy Posey. Fair or not, I will have expectations of him being as good as a 2nd round receiver. If he performs as they expect then he is even a better deal at lower round. See Arian Foster....

Playoff's article isn't talking about Posey though, its talking about Martin in the 4th. TBH, if he does get 10 catches/100 yards then we just got better at WR, because the guy he's replacing is named Bryant Johnson.

If Martin comes in and gives us that and some value on ST's as a rookie under Kubiak, than maybe we've got something we can work with later down the line, because Kube's doesn't like to throw them out there early (something he needs to get over with Posey, we need him to be at least #3 game 1, and need to look to him to make KW the slot receiver he's built to be by the end of the season).

gary
05-07-2012, 01:13 PM
I do not really make comparisons it just depends on their attitude going in.

DBCooper
05-07-2012, 01:22 PM
I have little expectation of Martin other than he replaces Jacoby as or punt returner and maybe kickoff returner too, and that he makes sure Trindon Holliday stays off the roster.

Posey is supposed to be a WR3 at the least, and a WR2 at best. He has to be good or it was a busted pick...but also got us Jared Crick so maybe that's the fallback plan if Posey busts.

From what people say about Posey, and from what I read about him in Texans articles...they all think he has the goods. So IMO, he's a bust if he doesn't produce early and often.

If Crick can play WR also, he will be a hell of a steal!

The Pencil Neck
05-07-2012, 01:48 PM
If Crick can play WR also, he will be a hell of a steal!

He's very athletic for a big man.

VTexan
05-07-2012, 02:12 PM
Going to be bold here and say that Dwight Jones will be the best receiver we got from this draft.

badboy
05-07-2012, 02:44 PM
Playoff's article isn't talking about Posey though, its talking about Martin in the 4th. TBH, if he does get 10 catches/100 yards then we just got better at WR, because the guy he's replacing is named Bryant Johnson.

If Martin comes in and gives us that and some value on ST's as a rookie under Kubiak, than maybe we've got something we can work with later down the line, because Kube's doesn't like to throw them out there early (something he needs to get over with Posey, we need him to be at least #3 game 1, and need to look to him to make KW the slot receiver he's built to be by the end of the season).I was using Posey as an example of how I evaluate. I expect more from a 3rd than I do a 4th but with Posey I expect more as I said "fair or not" because of Smith's decision to trade down to fill a need. The bolded is exactly what I said about Martin.

badboy
05-07-2012, 02:49 PM
Going to be bold here and say that Dwight Jones will be the best receiver we got from this draft.You may be correct. Others & I had mocked him as high as 2nd round during the season. I think the party thing and conflict with school due to that thru him off line. Perhaps he needs to put that behind him and step into his new role as an NFL player. He does have the skill set. I was pleasantly surprised to see him signed. He and Keenum should hook up to play pass and catch every free minute even if it is on some high school field.

GP
05-07-2012, 03:26 PM
Playoff's article isn't talking about Posey though, its talking about Martin in the 4th. TBH, if he does get 10 catches/100 yards then we just got better at WR, because the guy he's replacing is named Bryant Johnson.

If Martin comes in and gives us that and some value on ST's as a rookie under Kubiak, than maybe we've got something we can work with later down the line, because Kube's doesn't like to throw them out there early (something he needs to get over with Posey, we need him to be at least #3 game 1, and need to look to him to make KW the slot receiver he's built to be by the end of the season).

So you start off by saying we aren't supposed to talk about Posey...and you end by talking about Posey.

Posey and Martin will be spoken of in tandem because they were the only two WR draft picks and were selected 3rd round and 4th round.

GP
05-07-2012, 03:28 PM
You may be correct. Others & I had mocked him as high as 2nd round during the season. I think the party thing and conflict with school due to that thru him off line. Perhaps he needs to put that behind him and step into his new role as an NFL player. He does have the skill set. I was pleasantly surprised to see him signed. He and Keenum should hook up to play pass and catch every free minute even if it is on some high school field.

This ^^^.

I think at worst we'll have these two on the PS.

Playoffs
05-07-2012, 03:30 PM
BleacherReport -- borrow facts from "real" journalists & paste into yet another BR blog. :smiliepalm:

Texn4life
05-07-2012, 03:33 PM
Am I the only one who thinks signing Braylon Edwards to a 1 year deal wouldn't be the worst of ideas? I realize he had a rough go of it last year, but he was really good for the Jets 2 years ago. I personally just like the value of what it would take to get him here.

Rey
05-07-2012, 03:45 PM
Well, Jacoby had 15 rec for about 150 yards as a rookie. Last season, Jacoby had more return yards than he had receiving yards. If Martin can get 100 yards receiving and be a good returner then I think his rookie season will be successful.

However, I think he will be a bigger part of the offense than that. McNair specifically said he wants to see Martin in the slot and see if his quickness can help us there. When the owner comes out and says something like that it leads me to believe that they expect him to be a regular contributor on game day.

Rey
05-07-2012, 03:53 PM
This ^^^.

I think at worst we'll have these two on the PS.

I think Keenum maybe could last on the PS, but I think someone would definitely snactch jones up when injuries start happening.

If anything, he'll have some mysterious injury that wasn't seen by many people and end up on IR for the season....

The Pencil Neck
05-07-2012, 04:16 PM
I think Keenum maybe could last on the PS, but I think someone would definitely snactch jones up when injuries start happening.

If anything, he'll have some mysterious injury that wasn't seen by many people and end up on IR for the season....

What? Has that happened before?

:spy:

drs23
05-07-2012, 04:17 PM
Well, Jacoby had 15 rec for about 150 yards as a rookie. Last season, Jacoby had more return yards than he had receiving yards. If Martin can get 100 yards receiving and be a good returner then I think his rookie season will be successful.

However, I think he will be a bigger part of the offense than that. McNair specifically said he wants to see Martin in the slot and see if his quickness can help us there. When the owner comes out and says something like that it leads me to believe that they expect him to be a regular contributor on game day.

I'm not so sure this is McNair's original thought. I believe that he's parroting what he's been told by Gary and Rick more likely than not. JMO of coarse.

badboy
05-07-2012, 04:20 PM
BleacherReport -- borrow facts from "real" journalists & paste into yet another BR blog. :smiliepalm:Now if I can just find a way to do that and make money........:smiliedance:

badboy
05-07-2012, 04:22 PM
I think Keenum maybe could last on the PS, but I think someone would definitely snactch jones up when injuries start happening.

If anything, he'll have some mysterious injury that wasn't seen by many people and end up on IR for the season....My understanding is DJ had a chunk removed from his posterior and may need a few games to recover from that injury.

Rey
05-07-2012, 04:25 PM
I'm not so sure this is McNair's original thought. I believe that he's parroting what he's been told by Gary and Rick more likely than not. JMO of coarse.

That was my point.

I'm pretty sure when he was discussed amongst the staff that is the idea in mind they had for him. The Texans organization seems like a pretty unified front.

GP
05-07-2012, 04:42 PM
That was my point.

I'm pretty sure when he was discussed amongst the staff that is the idea in mind they had for him. The Texans organization seems like a pretty unified front.

Might be seeing more 3-WR or even 4-WR sets?

AJ will occupy WR1, which is an every down position.

Right now it's fair to say KW has the WR2 spot...though we all agree he's more likely going to end up WR3 with Posey as WR2.

This leaves Martin at WR4 no matter how it's sliced. How much can a WR4 get into the game each week...maybe 4 or 5 plays or so? We currently run a lot of multiple TEs too.

I'd like to see Kubiak go and blow the minds of everyone and switch up our offense and run more of a spread out of the shotgun with Yates throwing to 4-WR sets. Utilize Yates' athleticism to locate targets or take off running if there's nothing there. Not full time, mind you, but throw in a series every now and then that's nothing but no-huddle 4-WR sets and Foster or Tate in the backfield.

Rey
05-07-2012, 04:54 PM
Might be seeing more 3-WR or even 4-WR sets?

AJ will occupy WR1, which is an every down position.

Right now it's fair to say KW has the WR2 spot...though we all agree he's more likely going to end up WR3 with Posey as WR2.

This leaves Martin at WR4 no matter how it's sliced. How much can a WR4 get into the game each week...maybe 4 or 5 plays or so? We currently run a lot of multiple TEs too.


I think KW's snaps are going to be reduced this season. I think there will be times when Posey, Dre and Martin will be on the field together and I also think that we will look to give Andre a few more plays off to try to keep him healthy.

KW will still be #2 IMO, but I think we will see more of a rotation with the WR's IF they can step up and demand more playing time which is what I'm thinking the staff is hoping.





I'd like to see Kubiak go and blow the minds of everyone and switch up our offense and run more of a spread out of the shotgun with Yates throwing to 4-WR sets. Utilize Yates' athleticism to locate targets or take off running if there's nothing there. Not full time, mind you, but throw in a series every now and then that's nothing but no-huddle 4-WR sets and Foster or Tate in the backfield.

I love our offense and don't want to see it changed that drastically. I'd like to see more wrinkles like what you mentioned with Tate and Foster in the back-field together but I don't want to see us get away from the tight formations, under center, the bootlegs and such. I love this offense. It's an offense that I'm pretty familar with and I know that it makes everyones job a little bit easier. Every play is almost like a puzzle piece that fits together to form a picture. Except the offense has a cheat sheet to where each piece fits and the defense is staring at 5,000 pieces all laying about.

I wouldn't mind seeing us spread it out more like we used to do in past every now and then though, and just depending on match ups and what is successful.

SAMURAITEXAN
05-07-2012, 06:18 PM
What? Has that happened before?

:spy:

Yep, I think it was last or a year before with one of our OL on PS. Can't recall his name.

Go Texans!!!

TimeKiller
05-07-2012, 07:57 PM
Well I think he's gonna be awesome so suck on them bananas.





Expert analysis lol...Martin's got speed and better hands than Jones. Those numbers sound pretty gloomy but Jones was all athlete no brains. I think Martin's got the football savvy to match the athleticism. Michigan St. ain't no Lane College either...

Plus, I'm stoked that a I nailed a draft pick. And yes, I do see that as good karma!

GP
05-07-2012, 11:38 PM
Yep, I think it was last or a year before with one of our OL on PS. Can't recall his name.

Go Texans!!!

It happened to LeStar Jean AND Trindon Holliday too. Sneaky little injuries ;)

It's a tradition.

b0ng
05-08-2012, 12:14 AM
I want Posey and Martin to contribute to the offense, but I'm not going to be surprised they both produce less than Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels. I will say that after 3 years They will both probably be on the 53 man roster.